scholarly journals Robust Estimation for Bivariate Poisson INGARCH Models

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 367
Author(s):  
Byungsoo Kim ◽  
Sangyeol Lee ◽  
Dongwon Kim

In the integer-valued generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (INGARCH) models, parameter estimation is conventionally based on the conditional maximum likelihood estimator (CMLE). However, because the CMLE is sensitive to outliers, we consider a robust estimation method for bivariate Poisson INGARCH models while using the minimum density power divergence estimator. We demonstrate the proposed estimator is consistent and asymptotically normal under certain regularity conditions. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the estimator in the presence of outliers. Finally, a real data analysis using monthly count series of crimes in New South Wales and an artificial data example are provided as an illustration.

Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 399 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Riani ◽  
Anthony C. Atkinson ◽  
Aldo Corbellini ◽  
Domenico Perrotta

Minimum density power divergence estimation provides a general framework for robust statistics, depending on a parameter α , which determines the robustness properties of the method. The usual estimation method is numerical minimization of the power divergence. The paper considers the special case of linear regression. We developed an alternative estimation procedure using the methods of S-estimation. The rho function so obtained is proportional to one minus a suitably scaled normal density raised to the power α . We used the theory of S-estimation to determine the asymptotic efficiency and breakdown point for this new form of S-estimation. Two sets of comparisons were made. In one, S power divergence is compared with other S-estimators using four distinct rho functions. Plots of efficiency against breakdown point show that the properties of S power divergence are close to those of Tukey’s biweight. The second set of comparisons is between S power divergence estimation and numerical minimization. Monitoring these two procedures in terms of breakdown point shows that the numerical minimization yields a procedure with larger robust residuals and a lower empirical breakdown point, thus providing an estimate of α leading to more efficient parameter estimates.


Author(s):  
Hector M. Romero Ugalde ◽  
Christophe Corbier

Neural networks are powerful tools for black box system identification. However, their main drawback is the large number of parameters usually required to deal with complex systems. Classically, the model's parameters minimize a L2-norm-based criterion. However, when using strongly corrupted data, namely, outliers, the L2-norm-based estimation algorithms become ineffective. In order to deal with outliers and the model's complexity, the main contribution of this paper is to propose a robust system identification methodology providing neuromodels with a convenient balance between simplicity and accuracy. The estimation robustness is ensured by means of the Huberian function. Simplicity and accuracy are achieved by a dedicated neural network design based on a recurrent three-layer architecture and an efficient model order reduction procedure proposed in a previous work (Romero-Ugalde et al., 2013, “Neural Network Design and Model Reduction Approach for Black Box Nonlinear System Identification With Reduced Number of Parameters,” Neurocomputing, 101, pp. 170–180). Validation is done using real data, measured on a piezoelectric actuator, containing strong natural outliers in the output data due to its microdisplacements. Comparisons with others black box system identification methods, including a previous work (Corbier and Carmona, 2015, “Extension of the Tuning Constant in the Huber's Function for Robust Modeling of Piezoelectric Systems,” Int. J. Adapt. Control Signal Process., 29(8), pp. 1008–1023) where a pseudolinear model was used to identify the same piezoelectric system, show the relevance of the proposed robust estimation method leading balanced simplicity-accuracy neuromodels.


2018 ◽  
Vol 28 (12) ◽  
pp. 3729-3740
Author(s):  
Janet van Niekerk ◽  
Andriette Bekker ◽  
Mohammad Arashi

Real phenomena often leads to challenges in data. One of these is outliers or influential values. Especially in a small sample, these values can have a major influence on the modeling process. In the beta regression framework, this issue has been addressed mainly in two ways: the assumption of a different response model and the application of a minimum density power divergence estimation (MDPDE) procedure. In this paper, however, we propose a simple hierarchical Bayesian methodology in the context of a varying dispersion beta response model that is robust to outliers, as shown through an extensive simulation study and analysis of two real data sets. To robustify Bayesian modeling, a heavy-tailed Student's t prior with uniform degrees of freedom is adopted for the regression coefficients. This proposal results in a wieldy implementation procedure which avails practical use of the approach.


METRON ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanan Elsaied ◽  
Roland Fried

AbstractWe discuss robust estimation of INARCH models for count time series, where each observation conditionally on its past follows a negative binomial distribution with a constant scale parameter, and the conditional mean depends linearly on previous observations. We develop several robust estimators, some of them being computationally fast modifications of methods of moments, and some rather efficient modifications of conditional maximum likelihood. These estimators are compared to related recent proposals using simulations. The usefulness of the proposed methods is illustrated by a real data example.


Author(s):  
Abhik Ghosh ◽  
Nirian Martin ◽  
Ayanendranath Basu ◽  
Leandro Pardo

Abstract Parametric hypothesis testing associated with two independent samples arises frequently in several applications in biology, medical sciences, epidemiology, reliability and many more. In this paper, we propose robust Wald-type tests for testing such two sample problems using the minimum density power divergence estimators of the underlying parameters. In particular, we consider the simple two-sample hypothesis concerning the full parametric homogeneity as well as the general two-sample (composite) hypotheses involving some nuisance parameters. The asymptotic and theoretical robustness properties of the proposed Wald-type tests have been developed for both the simple and general composite hypotheses. Some particular cases of testing against one-sided alternatives are discussed with specific attention to testing the effectiveness of a treatment in clinical trials. Performances of the proposed tests have also been illustrated numerically through appropriate real data examples.


Entropy ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Byungsoo Kim ◽  
Sangyeol Lee

In this study, we consider the problem of testing for a parameter change in general integer-valued time series models whose conditional distribution belongs to the one-parameter exponential family when the data are contaminated by outliers. In particular, we use a robust change point test based on density power divergence (DPD) as the objective function of the minimum density power divergence estimator (MDPDE). The results show that under regularity conditions, the limiting null distribution of the DPD-based test is a function of a Brownian bridge. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed test and show that the test inherits the robust properties of the MDPDE and DPD. Lastly, we demonstrate the proposed test using a real data analysis of the return times of extreme events related to Goldman Sachs Group stock.


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