Impact of Natural Gas Distribution Network Structure and Operator Strategies on Grid Economy in Face of Decreasing Demand

Currently, natural gas provides more than a third of the energy used in European residential buildings. As part of the general decline of fossil fuels, this gas consumption is predicted to drop in several countries by 25–100% by 2050. We model a decline in gas consumption in 57 urban German distribution grids looking for the influence of grid-specific factors and different distribution network operator (DNO) strategies on grid charges. We find a functional relationship between grid length and customer amount described by a power law, with an exponent correlated with structural grid parameters. The disordered structure inherent to grids typically results in a decline in grid costs much slower than the corresponding demand. We introduce a simplified yearly cash flow calculation model based on the power law and validate it against mixed integer linear optimization. A comparison of the total costs of operation and resulting grid charges for several scenarios and strategies estimates the effects on DNO business models. Depending on a combination of DNO’s strategy and customers’ exit pattern, grid charges may increase, accelerating the substitution of gas-bound technologies that might develop into a self-reinforcing feedback loop, leading to grid defection.

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Research of pressure influence in the gas supply system on the energy consuption level of gas devices

JOURNAL OF HYDROCARBON POWER ENGINEERING ◽

10.31471/2311-1399-2019-2(12)-56-63 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 56-63

Author(s):

L. D. Pylypiv ◽

І. І. Maslanych

Keyword(s):

Natural Gas ◽

Residential Buildings ◽

Supply System ◽

Normal Operation ◽

Gas Combustion ◽

Efficient Operation ◽

Gas Consumption ◽

Natural Gas Combustion ◽

Gas Supply

There are investigated the influence of operating pressures in the gas supply system on the level of such energy indicators as efficiency, gas flow and gas overrun by gas equipment in residential buildings. There is established a relationship between the values of operating pressures in the gas supply system and the gas consumption level of household appliances. The causes of insufficient pressure in the gas networks of settlements are analyzed in the article. There is also developed an algorithm for calculating the change in the efficiency of gas appliances depending on the operational parameters of the gas network. It has been found that the most efficient operation of gas appliances is observed at an overpressure at the inlet of gas appliances of about 1200 Pa.To ensure the required quality of natural gas combustion among consumers and minimize gas consumption there are justified the following measures in the article: coordinating a domestic regulatory framework for assessing the quality of natural gas with international norms and standards; improving the preparation of gas coming from local wells before supplying it to gas distribution networks; auditing low pressure gas pipelines and reconstructing areas affected by corrosion; ensuring standard gas pressure in the network for the normal operation of domestic gas appliances; stating quality indicators of natural gas combustion by gas sales organizations.

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Interdependencies of Infrastructure Investment Decisions in Multi-Energy Systems—A Sensitivity Analysis for Urban Residential Areas

Smart Cities ◽

10.3390/smartcities4010007 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 4 (1) ◽

pp. 112-145

Author(s):

Daniel Then ◽

Johannes Bauer ◽

Tanja Kneiske ◽

Martin Braun

Keyword(s):

Sensitivity Analysis ◽

Energy Demand ◽

Business Models ◽

Linear Optimization ◽

Investment Decisions ◽

Energy System ◽

Mixed Integer ◽

The European Union ◽

Residential Areas ◽

Mixed Integer Linear Optimization

Considering the European Union (EU) climate targets, the heating sector should be decarbonized by 80 to 95% up to 2050. Thus, the macro-trends forecast increasing energy efficiency and focus on the use of renewable gas or the electrification of heat generation. This has implications for the business models of urban electricity and in particular natural gas distribution network operators (DNOs): When the energy demand decreases, a disproportionately long grid is operated, which can cause a rise of grid charges and thus the gas price. This creates a situation in which a self-reinforcing feedback loop starts, which increases the risk of gas grid defection. We present a mixed integer linear optimization model to analyze the interdependencies between the electricity and gas DNOs’ and the building owners’ investment decisions during the transformation path. The results of the investigation in a real grid area are used to validate the simulation setup of a sensitivity analysis of 27 types of building collectives and five grid topologies, which provides a systematic insight into the interrelated system. Therefore, it is possible to identify building and grid configurations that increase the risk of a complete gas grid shutdown and those that should be operated as a flexibility option in a future renewable energy system.

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Application of Genetic Algorithm (GA) Technique on Demand Estimation of Fossil Fuels in Turkey

ASME 2007 Energy Sustainability Conference ◽

10.1115/es2007-36260 ◽

2007 ◽

Author(s):

Olcay Ersel Canyurt ◽

Harun Kemal O¨ztu¨rk

Keyword(s):

Genetic Algorithm ◽

Natural Gas ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Demand Estimation ◽

Design Parameters ◽

The Future ◽

Oil And Natural Gas ◽

Gas Consumption ◽

Natural Gas Consumption ◽

Natural Gas Demand

The main objective of the present study is to investigate Turkey’s fossil fuels demand, projection and supplies by giving the structure of the Turkish industry and Turkish economic conditions. This present study develops several scenarios to analyze fossil fuels; such as, coal, oil and natural gas consumption and make future projections based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) notion, and examines the effect of the design parameters on the fossil fuels utilization values. The models developed in the nonlinear form are applied to the coal, oil and natural gas demand of Turkey. Several Genetic Algorithm Demand Estimation Models (GA-DEM) are developed to estimate the future coal, oil and natural gas demand values based on population, Gross National Product (GNP), import, export figures. It may be concluded that the proposed models can be used as an alternative solution and estimation techniques for the future fossil fuel utilization values of any country. Oil is the most important fuel in Turkey, contributing 43% of the Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES), followed by coal (almost 30% of TPES) and natural gas (11.8%). In the study, coil, oil and natural gas consumption of Turkey are projected. Estimation shows that the coal, oil and natural gas consumption values may increase 2.82, 1.73 and 4.83 times from 2000 to 2020.

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Profitability of Energy Supply Contracting and Energy Sharing Concepts in a Neighborhood Energy Community: Business Cases for Austria

Energies ◽

10.3390/en14040921 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 14 (4) ◽

pp. 921

Author(s):

Carolin Monsberger ◽

Bernadette Fina ◽

Hans Auer

Keyword(s):

Energy Supply ◽

Business Models ◽

Linear Optimization ◽

Cost Savings ◽

Energy Performance ◽

Mixed Integer ◽

Performance Contracting ◽

Efficiency Measures ◽

Business Cases ◽

Energy Community

To ensure broad application of renewable and energy-efficient energy systems in buildings and neighborhoods, profitable business models are vital. Energy supply contracting helps building residents to overcome the barrier of high upfront investment costs while additionally reducing risks related to energy-saving mechanisms. This study examines profitability for energy contractors in a variety of business cases that simultaneously ensure energy cost savings for the residents. A mixed-integer linear optimization model is developed for a neighborhood energy community, consisting of three buildings with diverse usages. In the process, the optimum capacities of building-attached and building-integrated photovoltaics, a heat pump and a gas-fired mini combined heat and power unit are determined to cover the energy community’s electricity and heat load. Results show that cross-domain contracting within energy communities is highly profitable for both, the contractor and the residents, while the extent depends on the accounting method, assumed interest rate and depreciation time. The additional application of energy-efficiency measures in/on the buildings, constituting a combination of energy supply and energy performance contracting, further increases profitability. The investigation of several sensitivities shows that high grid energy costs for electricity and gas enhance profitability of local energy technologies, leading to an increase in optimal technology capacities.

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The comparison of calculation methods of gas demand in the installation with combi boilers

E3S Web of Conferences ◽

10.1051/e3sconf/20184400058 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 44 ◽

pp. 00058

Author(s):

Andrzej Jedlikowski ◽

Sebastian Englart

Keyword(s):

Natural Gas ◽

Residential Buildings ◽

Hot Water ◽

Calculation Methods ◽

Water Heaters ◽

Single Function ◽

Gas Consumption ◽

Natural Gas Demand ◽

Reliable Methods ◽

Selection Of

Combi boilers offer an economic alternative to individual single function gas boilers and instantaneous water heaters. These gas appliances allow for producing thermal energy for two heating purposes (space heating and hot water preparation). For this reason these compact and highly efficient devices are becoming increasingly popular in many residential buildings. The application of such heating systems often requires an adequate approach for determining the natural gas demand. The literature indicates several methods for this purpose, which often differ significantly. Differences in calculated results seem to be the main problem with these methods. Unfortunately, the selection of the above-mentioned gas appliances always causes overestimation of natural gas demand. This is mainly due to the fact that many calculation methods contain incorrect gas demand coefficients. Therefore, this paper presents various methods for estimating gas consumption for multi-family buildings. It provides discussion and analysis of various calculation methods for residential buildings equipped with two types of gas appliance. The performed analysis made it possible to indicate the most reliable methods of gas demand calculation.

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MINLP Model for Operational Optimization of LNG Terminals

Processes ◽

10.3390/pr9040599 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 9 (4) ◽

pp. 599

Author(s):

Zhencheng Ye ◽

Xiaoyan Mo ◽

Liang Zhao

Keyword(s):

Energy Consumption ◽

Natural Gas ◽

Fossil Fuels ◽

Programming Model ◽

Mixed Integer ◽

Integer Variables ◽

Operational Optimization ◽

Minlp Model ◽

Different Seasons ◽

Nonlinear Programming Model

Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is a clear and promising fossil fuel which emits less greenhouse gas (GHG) and has almost no environmentally damaging sulfur dioxide compared with other fossil fuels. An LNG import terminal is a facility that regasifies LNG into natural gas, which is supplied to industrial and residential users. Modeling and optimization of the LNG terminals may reduce energy consumption and GHG emission. A mixed-integer nonlinear programming model of the LNG terminal is developed to minimize the energy consumption, where the numbers of boil-off gas (BOG) compressors and low-pressure (LP) pumps are considered as integer variables. A case study from an actual LNG terminal is carried out to verify the practicality of the proposed method. Results show that the proposed approach can decrease the operating energy consumption from 9.15% to 26.1% for different seasons.

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The design of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) distribution network of a company operating in México

Journal of Applied Research and Technology ◽

10.22201/icat.16656423.2019.17.4.818 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 17 (4) ◽

Author(s):

Samuel López Ruíz ◽

Rafael Bernardo Carmona Benítez

Keyword(s):

Natural Gas ◽

Programming Model ◽

Distribution Network ◽

Real Life ◽

Product Distribution ◽

Liquefied Natural Gas ◽

Mixed Integer ◽

Distribution Model ◽

Capital Expenditures ◽

Distribution Problem

This paper presents a modification of the Multi Depot Multi Period Vehicle Routing Problem with heterogeneous fleet (MDMPVRPHF) to consider capital expenditures and operating expenses (MDMPVRPHFMR). The aim is to design a product distribution network and minimize the total delivery cost. The MDMPVRPHF only considers transportation costs with transportation restrictions. In this paper, the purpose is to solve a real'life freight distribution problem that considers capital expenditures and operation expenses. The MDMPVRPHFMR is formulated as a mixed integer programming model. The results of the application of both models to a real case of study demonstrate the advantages presented by the MDMPVRPHFMR over the MDMPVRPHF. Hence, management restrictions must be considered when designing a real-life freight distribution problem. The study case is to develop a liquefied natural gas distribution model based on a real company operating in México.

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Optimal Test Assembly in Practice

Zeitschrift für Psychologie ◽

10.1027/2151-2604/a000146 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 221 (3) ◽

pp. 190-200 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Jörg-Tobias Kuhn ◽

Thomas Kiefer

Keyword(s):

Particle Physics ◽

Large Scale ◽

Block Design ◽

Linear Optimization ◽

Mixed Integer ◽

Optimal Test ◽

Automated Test Assembly ◽

Test Assembly ◽

Block Level ◽

Mixed Integer Linear Optimization

Several techniques have been developed in recent years to generate optimal large-scale assessments (LSAs) of student achievement. These techniques often represent a blend of procedures from such diverse fields as experimental design, combinatorial optimization, particle physics, or neural networks. However, despite the theoretical advances in the field, there still exists a surprising scarcity of well-documented test designs in which all factors that have guided design decisions are explicitly and clearly communicated. This paper therefore has two goals. First, a brief summary of relevant key terms, as well as experimental designs and automated test assembly routines in LSA, is given. Second, conceptual and methodological steps in designing the assessment of the Austrian educational standards in mathematics are described in detail. The test design was generated using a two-step procedure, starting at the item block level and continuing at the item level. Initially, a partially balanced incomplete item block design was generated using simulated annealing, whereas in a second step, items were assigned to the item blocks using mixed-integer linear optimization in combination with a shadow-test approach.

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