scholarly journals Projection of Post-Pandemic Italian Industrial Production through Vector AutoRegressive Models

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (17) ◽  
pp. 5458
Author(s):  
Antonio Oliva ◽  
Francesco Gracceva ◽  
Daniele Lerede ◽  
Matteo Nicoli ◽  
Laura Savoldi
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Industrial Production ◽  
Autoregressive Models ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Models ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Industrial Energy ◽  
Energy Service ◽  
The Impact

Energy system models for the analysis of future scenarios are mainly driven by the set of energy service demands that define the broad outlines of socio-economic development throughout the model time horizon. Here, the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the drivers of the industrial production in six energy-intensive subsectors are addressed using Vector AutoRegressive models. The model results are computed either considering or not considering the effects of the pandemic. The comparison to established pre-pandemic trends allows for validating the robustness of the selected model. The anticipated effect of the pandemic to 2040 shows a long-term reduction by 3% to 10%, according to the different subsector, in the industrial energy service demand. When the computed service demands are used as input to the TIMES-Italy model, which shows good capability to reproduce the energy consumption of the industrial sectors in the period 2006–2020, the impact of the pandemic on energy consumption forecasts can be assessed in a business-as-usual scenario. The results show how the long-term effects of the shock caused by the pandemic could lead, by 2040, to a total industrial energy consumption 5% lower than what was foreseen before the pandemic, while the energy mix remains almost unchanged.

scholarly journals Impacts of COVID on University’s Finances

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Pier-André Bouchard St-Amant ◽  
Yanick Wilfred Tadjiogue ◽  
Lucie Raymond-Brousseau ◽  
Camille Fortier-Martineau ◽  
Franck-Aurelien Tchokouagueu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Funding ◽  
Autoregressive Models ◽  
Vector Autoregressive Models ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Public Subsidies ◽  
Additional Funding ◽  
The Impact

Did universities benefit from the pandemic? Some did receive more funding than usual. We use vector autoregressive models to forecast both enrollment and public subsidies in a jurisdiction where public funding depends mostly on enrollment. Using unemployment as an established proxy for the impact of recessions on enrollment, we show that the recent COVID pandemic increases pressure on public subsidies. Further, we use our forecasts to decompose the current subsidies between long-term subsidies, recession induced subsidies, and additional funding. We find that the subsidies given during the pandemic were higher than what a typical recession would command for 8 universities out of 18.

IMPACTS OF EXTERNAL SHOCKS ON ASIAN ECONOMIES: PANEL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE REGRESSION WITH LATENT DYNAMIC COMPONENTS APPROACH

2013 ◽  
Vol 58 (04) ◽  
pp. 1350026
Author(s):  
DOO YONG YANG
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Asian Crisis ◽  
Space Representation ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Dynamic Components ◽  
The Impact

This paper analyzes the effects of external shocks on emerging Asian economies. Since the Asian crisis of 1997–1998, the impact of external shocks on regional economies has grown important in the Asian business cycles as well as in the decision-making process of macroeconomic policies, as emerging Asian economies have become more integrated with the global economy. This paper designs a state-space representation of the panel vector autoregressive model with latent dynamic components in order to show the impulse response function of three external shocks including real income shock, financial shock, and long-term real interest rate shock. This paper finds the external real gross domestic product shock as a dominant one in emerging Asia. The shock has been persistent and has carried long-term effects on emerging Asia before and after the Asian crisis. Second, the external equity shock has also been an important factor influencing the business cycles in the region after the Asian crisis, while the effect has been insignificant before the Asian crisis. Last, the external monetary shock has presumably mitigated effectively by Asia's macroeconomic policy, but it has forced to give up monetary independency in the region.

SUMBER-SUMBER RESILIENSI PADA REMAJA AKHIR YANG MENGALAMI KEKERASAN DARI ORANGTUA PADA MASA KANAK-KANAK

Psibernetika ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Devina Calista ◽  
Garvin Garvin
Keyword(s):  
Late Adolescents ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Parental Affection ◽  
Resilience Factors ◽  
Childhood Violence ◽  
Past Experiences ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Depth Interviews

<p><em>Child abuse by parents is common in households. The impact of violence on children will bring short-term effects and long-term effects that can be attributed to their various emotional, behavioral and social problems in the future; especially in late adolescence that will enter adulthood. Resilience factors increase the likelihood that adolescents who are victims of childhood violence recover from their past experiences</em><em>,</em><em> become more powerful individuals and have a better life. The purpose of this study was to determine the source of resilience in late adolescents who experienced violence from parents in their childhood. This research uses qualitative research methods with in-depth interviews as a method of data collection. The result shows that the three research participants have the aspects of "I Have", "I Am", and "I Can"; a participant has "I Can" aspects as a source of resilience, and one other subject has no source of resilience. The study concluded that parental affection and acceptance of the past experience have role to the three sources of resilience (I Have, I Am, and I Can)</em></p><p><em> </em></p><p><strong><em>Keyword : </em></strong><em>Resilience, adolescence, violence, parents</em></p>

The Quantification of Structural Reforms in OECD Countries

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Balázs Égert ◽  
Peter Gal
Keyword(s):  
Product Market ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Market Regulation ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Product Market Regulation ◽  
The Impact

This chapter describes and discusses a new supply-side framework that quantifies the impact of structural reforms on per capita income in OECD countries. It presents the overall macroeconomic impacts of reforms by aggregating over the effects on physical capital, employment, and productivity through a production function. On the basis of reforms defined as observed changes in policies, the chapter finds that product market regulation has the largest overall single policy impact five years after the reforms. But the combined impact of all labour market policies is considerably larger than that of product market regulation. The paper also shows that policy impacts can differ at different horizons. The overall long-term effects on GDP per capita of policies transiting through capital deepening can be considerably larger than the five- to ten-year impacts. By contrast, the long-term impact of policies coming only via the employment rate channel materializes at a shorter horizon.

scholarly journals Antibiotics at birth and later antibiotic courses: effects on gut microbiota

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sofia Ainonen ◽  
Mysore V Tejesvi ◽  
Md. Rayhan Mahmud ◽  
Niko Paalanne ◽  
Tytti Pokka ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Gut Microbiota ◽  
Control Group ◽  
List Type ◽  
Antibiotic Exposure ◽  
Microbiota Composition ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Antibiotic Courses ◽  
Gut Microbiota Composition

Abstract Background Intrapartum antibiotic prophylaxis (IAP) is widely used, but the evidence of the long-term effects on the gut microbiota and subsequent health of children is limited. Here, we compared the impacts of perinatal antibiotic exposure and later courses of antibiotic courses on gut microbiota. Methods This was a prospective, controlled cohort study among 100 vaginally delivered infants with different perinatal antibiotic exposures: control (27), IAP (27), postnatal antibiotics (24), and IAP and postnatal antibiotics (22). At 1 year of age, we performed next-generation sequencing of the bacterial 16S ribosomal RNA gene of fecal samples. Results Exposure to the perinatal antibiotics had a clear impact on the gut microbiota. The abundance of the Bacteroidetes phylum was significantly higher in the control group, whereas the relative abundance of Escherichia coli was significantly lower in the control group. The impact of the perinatal antibiotics on the gut microbiota composition was greater than exposure to later courses of antibiotics (28% of participants). Conclusions Perinatal antibiotic exposure had a marked impact on the gut microbiota at the age of 1 year. The timing of the antibiotic exposure appears to be the critical factor for the changes observed in the gut microbiota. Impact Infants are commonly exposed to IAP and postnatal antibiotics, and later to courses of antibiotics during the first year of life. Perinatal antibiotics have been associated with an altered gut microbiota during the first months of life, whereas the evidence regarding the long-term impact is more limited. Perinatal antibiotic exposure had a marked impact on the infant’s gut microbiota at 1 year of age. Impact of the perinatal antibiotics on the gut microbiota composition was greater than that of the later courses of antibiotics at the age of 1 year.

Parental alienation: the impact on men’s mental health

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Leo Sher
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Separation Anxiety ◽  
Self Esteem ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Parental Alienation ◽  
Adult Men ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
High Conflict ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Parental alienation is defined as a mental state in which a child, usually one whose parents are engaged in a high-conflict separation or divorce, allies himself strongly with one parent (the preferred parent) and rejects a relationship with the other parent (the alienated parent) without legitimate justification. Parental alienation may affect men’s mental health: a) parental alienation negatively influences mental health of male children and adolescents who are victims of parental alienation. Alienated children/adolescents display guilt, sadness, and depressed mood; low self-esteem and lack of self-confidence; distress and frustration; lack of impulse control, substance abuse and delinquent behavior; separation anxiety, fears and phobias; hypochondria and increased tendency to develop psychosomatic illness; suicidal ideation and suicide attempt; sleep and eating disorders; educational problems; enuresis and encopresis; b) parental alienation negatively affects the mental health of adult men who were victims of parental alienation when they were children and/or adolescents. Long-term effects of parental alienation include low self-esteem, depression, drug/alcohol abuse, lack of trust, alienation from own children, divorce, problems with identity and not having a sense of belonging or roots, choosing not to have children to avoid being rejected by them, low achievement, anger and bitterness over the time lost with the alienated parent; c) parental alienation negatively influences mental health of men who are alienated from their children. Fathers who have lost some or all contact with their children for months or years following separation or divorce may be depressed and suicidal.

scholarly journals Cancer Care and Survivorship Planning: Promises and Challenges

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 116-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Len Lichtenfeld
Keyword(s):  
Cancer Care ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Cancer Treatments ◽  
The Impact

Although we have made some progress in understanding long-term effects of some cancer treatments, there is still much more to learn about the impact of our treatments on our patients.

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