scholarly journals Modelling the Present and Future Water Level and Discharge of the Tidal Betna River

Geosciences ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 271 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Islam ◽  
Nynke Hofstra ◽  
Ekaterina Sokolova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Major Floods

Climate change, comprising of changes in precipitation patterns, higher temperatures and sea level rises, increases the likelihood of future flooding in the Betna River basin, Bangladesh. Hydrodynamic modelling was performed to simulate the present and future water level and discharge for different scenarios using bias-corrected, downscaled data from two general circulation models. The modelling results indicated that, compared to the baseline year (2014–2015), the water level is expected to increase by 11–16% by the 2040s and 14–23% by the 2090s, and the monsoon daily maximum discharge is expected to increase by up to 13% by the 2040s and 21% by the 2090s. Sea level rise is mostly responsible for the increase in water level. The duration of water level exceedance of the established danger threshold and extreme discharge events can increase by up to half a month by the 2040s and above one month by the 2090s. The combined influence of the increased water level and discharge has the potential to cause major floods in the Betna River basin. The results of our study increase the knowledge base on climate change influence on water level and discharge at a local scale. This is valuable for water managers in flood-risk mitigation and water management.

scholarly journals A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-29 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Perrette ◽  
F. Landerer ◽  
R. Riva ◽  
K. Frieler ◽  
M. Meinshausen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Regional Sea Level ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract. Climate change causes global mean sea level to rise due to thermal expansion of seawater and loss of land ice from mountain glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets. Locally, sea level can strongly deviate from the global mean rise due to changes in wind and ocean currents. In addition, gravitational adjustments redistribute seawater away from shrinking ice masses. However, the land ice contribution to sea level rise (SLR) remains very challenging to model, and comprehensive regional sea level projections, which include appropriate gravitational adjustments, are still a nascent field (Katsman et al., 2011; Slangen et al., 2011). Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6) with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. The contribution from ice sheets varies considerably depending on the assumptions for the ice sheet projections, and thus represents sizeable uncertainties for future sea level rise. However, several consistent and robust patterns emerge from our analysis: at low latitudes, especially in the Indian Ocean and Western Pacific, sea level will likely rise more than the global mean (mostly by 10–20%). Around the northeastern Atlantic and the northeastern Pacific coasts, sea level will rise less than the global average or, in some rare cases, even fall. In the northwestern Atlantic, along the American coast, a strong dynamic sea level rise is counteracted by gravitational depression due to Greenland ice melt; whether sea level will be above- or below-average will depend on the relative contribution of these two factors. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change.

Beneficial impacts of climate change on pastoral and broadacre agriculture in cool-temperate Tasmania

2014 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 194 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. C. Phelan ◽  
D. Parsons ◽  
S. N. Lisson ◽  
G. K. Holz ◽  
N. D. MacLeod
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Diverse Range ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Elevated Atmospheric Co2

Although geographically small, Tasmania has a diverse range of regional climates that are affected by different synoptic influences. Consequently, changes in climate variables and climate-change impacts will likely vary in different regions of the state. This study aims to quantify the regional effects of projected climate change on the productivity of rainfed pastoral and wheat crop systems at five sites across Tasmania. Projected climate data for each site were obtained from the Climate Futures for Tasmania project (CFT). Six General Circulation Models were dynamically downscaled to ~10-km grid cells using the CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model under the A2 emissions scenario for the period 1961–2100. Mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures at each site are projected to increase from a baseline period (1981–2010) to 2085 (2071–2100) by 2.3–2.7°C. Mean annual rainfall is projected to increase slightly at all sites. Impacts on pasture and wheat production were simulated for each site using the projected CFT climate data. Mean annual pasture yields are projected to increase from the baseline to 2085 largely due to an increase in spring pasture growth. However, summer growth of temperate pasture species may become limited by 2085 due to greater soil moisture deficits. Wheat yields are also projected to increase, particularly at sites presently temperature-limited. This study suggests that increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are likely to increase regional rainfed pasture and wheat production in the absence of any significant changes in rainfall patterns.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Water Balance Components and Droughts in the Guajoyo River Basin (El Salvador)

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2360 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo Blanco-Gómez ◽  
Patricia Jimeno-Sáez ◽  
Javier Senent-Aparicio ◽  
Julio Pérez-Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Historical Series

This study assessed how changes in terms of temperature and precipitation might translate into changes in water availability and droughts in an area in a developing country with environmental interest. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to analyze the impacts of climate change on water resources of the Guajoyo River Basin in El Salvador. El Salvador is in one of the most vulnerable regions in Latin America to the effects of climate change. The predicted future climate change by two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and five general circulation models (GCMs) were considered. A statistical analysis was performed to identify which GCM was better in terms of goodness of fit to variation in means and standard deviations of the historical series. A significant decreasing trend in precipitation and a significant increase in annual average temperatures were projected by the middle and the end of the twenty–first century. The results indicated a decreasing trend of the amount of water available and more severe droughts for future climate scenarios with respect to the base period (1975–2004). These findings will provide local water management authorities useful information in the face of climate change to help decision making.

scholarly journals Estimation of Runoff under changed climatic scenario of a Meso Scale River by Neural Network Based Gridded Model Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Debajit Das ◽  
Tilottama Chakraborty ◽  
Mrinmoy Majumder ◽  
Tarun Kanti Bandyopadhyay
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Group Method ◽  
North East India ◽  
North East ◽  
Hadley Centre ◽  
Gomati River ◽  
The Impact

Abstract As climate change is linked with changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration and changes in other climatological parameters, these changes will be affected runoff of a river basin. Gomati River basin is the largest river basin among all the river basin of Tripura. Due to the increase in settlement in the Gomati river basin and climate change may threaten natural flow patterns that endure its diversity. This study assesses the impact of climate change on total flow of a catchment in North East India (Gomati River catchment). For this assessment, the Group Method of Data Handling Modeling System (GMDH) model was used to simulate the rainfall-runoff relationship of the catchment, with respect to the observed data during the period of 2008–2009. The statistically downscaled outputs of HadGEM2-ES (Hadley Centre Global Environment Model version 2), general circulation models (GCMs) scenario was used to assess the impacts of climate change on the Gomati River Basin. Future projections were developed for the 2030s, 2040s and 2050s projections, respectively. The results from the present study can contribute to the development of adaptive strategies and future policies for the sustainable management of water resources in North East, Tripura.

Past Evaluation and Future Projection of Sea Level Rise Related to Climate Change Around Japan

2008 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 119-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sin-Iti Iwasaki ◽  
◽  
Wataru Sasaki ◽  
Tomonori Matsuura
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Linear Regression Model ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Western Japan

Using new sea level data on 71 points on Japan’s coast during 1966-2003 in which crustal movement is eliminated from tide records, we evaluate long-term oceanic-origin sea levels and project sea level rises (SLR). We classify Japan’s coast into seven regions of about 100 km^2 by applying cluster analysis to the sea level data. For western Japan, we propose a linear regression model enabling us to predict sea levels based on sea surface temperature (SST). SLR are projected for the 21stcentury using our linear regression model to SSTs of 10 coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), based on the SRES A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. The mean SLR in western Japan in the 21stcentury is 12 cm, almost the same as the SLR around Japan’s coast predicted dynamically by CGCMs. We found that the SLR predicted by our linear regression model is high in the western Japan, particularly at about 17 cm/century in western Kyushu.

scholarly journals Application of a technique for scenario prediction of climate change impact on the water balance components of northern river basins

2014 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 197-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yeugeniy M. Gusev ◽  
Olga N. Nasonova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Water Balance Components ◽  
Northern River

Abstract The scenario forecasting technique for assessing changes of water balance components of the northern river basins due to possible climate change was developed. Three IPCC global emission scenarios corresponding to different possible scenarios for economic, technological, political and demographic development of the human civilization in the 21st century were chosen for generating climate change projections by an ensemble of 16 General Circulation Models with a high spatial resolution. The projections representing increments of monthly values of meteorological characteristics were used for creating 3-hour meteorological time series up to 2063 for the Northern Dvina River basin, which belongs to the pan-Arctic basin and locates at the north of the European part of Russia. The obtained time series were applied as forcing data to drive the land surface model SWAP to simulate possible changes in the water balance components due to different scenarios of climate change for the Northern Dvina River basin

scholarly journals Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 2201-2242 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Chawla ◽  
P. P. Mujumdar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Combined Effect ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Ganga Basin

Abstract. Streamflow regime is sensitive to changes in land use and climate in a river basin. Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in the river basin. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modelling based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modelled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban area and moderately sensitive to change in crop land area. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. Combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and climate change on the streamflow.

scholarly journals Linking climate change to soil loss estimation in the Kosi river basin, India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aadil Towheed ◽  
Thendiyath Roshni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Soil Loss ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Analysis ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Abstract This study assessed the spatio-temporal variability of soil loss based on rainfall–runoff erosivity in the context of climate change in the Kosi river basin. The observed rainfall data (1985–2017) were used for past and present analyses, and the projected rainfall data (2020–2100) interpolated for various general circulation models (GCMs) were used for future analysis. The results of rainfall analysis for the projected period show a maximum percentage variation of 26.2% for a particular GCM and an average of 9.4% increase in the rainfall data from all selected GCMs considering three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). We also evaluated the implications of change in the soil loss due to changes in the rainfall pattern and crop management factor for three time slices. The results for the projected time period showed a concomitant increase in the average soil loss of −13.03–10.39% with respect to the baseline. The average soil loss results for the time period of 2020–2100 are also compared with the average soil loss for each RCP scenario and found very meager changes in the area of soil erosion. The results due to climate change aid in prioritizing the areas with suitable conservation support practices.

scholarly journals Isolating the impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 3633-3651 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Chawla ◽  
P. P. Mujumdar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Combined Effect ◽  
Infiltration Capacity

Abstract. Quantifying the isolated and integrated impacts of land use (LU) and climate change on streamflow is challenging as well as crucial to optimally manage water resources in river basins. This paper presents a simple hydrologic modeling-based approach to segregate the impacts of land use and climate change on the streamflow of a river basin. The upper Ganga basin (UGB) in India is selected as the case study to carry out the analysis. Streamflow in the river basin is modeled using a calibrated variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The approach involves development of three scenarios to understand the influence of land use and climate on streamflow. The first scenario assesses the sensitivity of streamflow to land use changes under invariant climate. The second scenario determines the change in streamflow due to change in climate assuming constant land use. The third scenario estimates the combined effect of changing land use and climate over the streamflow of the basin. Based on the results obtained from the three scenarios, quantification of isolated impacts of land use and climate change on streamflow is addressed. Future projections of climate are obtained from dynamically downscaled simulations of six general circulation models (GCMs) available from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) project. Uncertainties associated with the GCMs and emission scenarios are quantified in the analysis. Results for the case study indicate that streamflow is highly sensitive to change in urban areas and moderately sensitive to change in cropland areas. However, variations in streamflow generally reproduce the variations in precipitation. The combined effect of land use and climate on streamflow is observed to be more pronounced compared to their individual impacts in the basin. It is observed from the isolated effects of land use and climate change that climate has a more dominant impact on streamflow in the region. The approach proposed in this paper is applicable to any river basin to isolate the impacts of land use change and climate change on the streamflow.

scholarly journals Hydrologic Effects of Urbanization and Climate Change on the Flint River Basin, Georgia

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (20) ◽  
pp. 1-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roland J. Viger ◽  
Lauren E. Hay ◽  
Steven L. Markstrom ◽  
John W. Jones ◽  
Gary R. Buell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Watershed Model ◽  
Flint River

Abstract The potential effects of long-term urbanization and climate change on the freshwater resources of the Flint River basin were examined by using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter watershed model developed to evaluate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, temperature, and land cover on streamflow and multiple intermediate hydrologic states. Precipitation and temperature output from five general circulation models (GCMs) using one current and three future climate-change scenarios were statistically downscaled for input into PRMS. Projections of urbanization through 2050 derived for the Flint River basin by the Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land-Cover (FORE-SCE) land-cover change model were also used as input to PRMS. Comparison of the central tendency of streamflow simulated based on the three climate-change scenarios showed a slight decrease in overall streamflow relative to simulations under current conditions, mostly caused by decreases in the surface-runoff and groundwater components. The addition of information about forecasted urbanization of land surfaces to the hydrologic simulation mitigated the decreases in streamflow, mainly by increasing surface runoff.

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