scholarly journals Mid-Century Daily Discharge Scenarios Based on Climate and Land Use Change in Ouémé River Basin at Bétérou Outlet

Hydrology ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lawin Emmanuel ◽  
Yèkambèssoun N’Tcha M’Po ◽  
Chabi Biaou ◽  
Kossi Komi ◽  
Rita Hounguè ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Management Plans ◽  
Daily Discharge

This study evaluates the impacts of land use and climate changes on daily discharge in Ouémé river basin at Bétérou outlet. Observed rainfall and temperature over 2002–2008 and land use data of 2003 and 2007 were used. Corrected rainfall and temperature data, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios from regional climate model REMO were considered. Two land use scenarios from RIVERTWIN project were used. The first one, Land Use A (LUA), is characterized by stronger economic development, controlled urbanization, implementation of large-scale irrigation schemes, and 3.2% population growth per year. The other one, Land Use B (LUB), is characterized by a weak national economy, uncontrolled settlement, and farmland development as well as 3.5% population growth per year. Four climate and land use combined scenarios (LUA + RCP4.5, LUA + RCP8.5; LUB + RCP4.5, and LUB + RCP8.5) were used for forcing LISFLOOD hydrological model to estimate future discharges at 2050. As a result, during calibration and validation, the LISFLOOD model showed high ability to reproduce historical flows of Ouémé River at Bétérou outlet with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies greater than 90%. Future discharges simulations show general increase for all land use and climate combined scenarios for all time horizons until 2050. The increase is more exacerbated under the combined scenarios using LUB than the ones using LUA. Increase of river discharge varies between 7.1% and 52% compared to the mean of the reference period 2002–2004. These findings highlight growing challenges for water resources managers and planners. Moreover, they emphasize the need to address potential climate and land use changes’ impact on water resources. Then, developing water management plans, strategies to reduce flooding risks must be considered.

Evaluation of the impacts of climate change and land-use dynamics on water resources: The case of the Lobo River watershed: Central-Western Côte d'Ivoire

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Berenger Koffi ◽  
Zilé Alex Kouadio ◽  
Affoué Berthe Yao ◽  
Kouakou Hervé Kouassi ◽  
Martin Sanchez Angulo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Mean Annual Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

<p>Meeting growing water needs in a context of increasing scarcity of resources due to climate change and changes in land use is a major challenge for developing countries in the coming years. The watershed of the Lobo river in Nibéhibé does not escape this dilemma. The water retention of the Lobo River and its watershed play an important role in the subsistence of the inhabitants of the region. However, the watershed is currently subject to strong human pressures mainly associated with the constant increase in human population and intensification of agricultural activities. The main objective of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change on the water resources of the Lobo River watershed at Nibéhibé in the central-western part of Côte d'Ivoire. Two climate change scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were established using the regional climate model RCA4 (Rossby Centre atmospheric model 4) and the flows under these scenarios were simulated by the hydrological model CEQUEAU with respect to a reference period (1986-2005). The RCA4 regional model predicts an increase of 1.27° C; 2.58° C in the horizon 2021-2040 and 2051-2070 in mean annual temperature. Rainfall would also experience a significant average annual decrease of about 6.51% and 11.15% over the period 2021-2040 and 2041-2070. As for the evolution of flows, the Cequeau model predicts a decrease in the runoff and infiltration of water on the horizon 2021-2040 and an increase in evapotranspiration over time according to the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the model predicts an increase in runoff at the expense of a decrease in REE and infiltration at the horizon 2040-2070 according to scenario RCP8.5. It appears from this study that surface flows and infiltrations, which constitute the water resources available to meet the water needs of the basin's populations, will be the most affected. The results obtained in this study are important and could contribute to guide decision making for sustainable water resource management.</p>

scholarly journals Climate Impacts of Deforestation/Land-Use Changes in Central South America in the PRECIS Regional Climate Model: Mean Precipitation and Temperature Response to Present and Future Deforestation Scenarios

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pablo O. Canziani ◽  
Gerardo Carbajal Benitez
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
South America ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Gran Chaco ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
Central South

Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961–2000 (40-year runs), potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated. Current 2002 and estimated 2030 land-use scenarios are used to assess PRECIS's response during 1960–2000. ERA-40 and ECHAM4 Baseline driven runs yield similar results. Precipitation changes for 2002 and 2030 land-use scenarios, while significant within deforested areas, do not result in significant regional changes. For temperature significant changes are found within deforested areas and beyond, with major temperature enhancements during winter and spring. Given the current climate, primary effects of deforestation/land-use changes remain mostly confined to the tropical latitudes of Gran Chaco, and Amazonia.

scholarly journals CHANGES IN PARAMETERIZATIONS OF REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL REGCM4.4.5: THE ROLE OF LAND COVER ON REGIONAL CLIMATE OVER MEDITERRANEAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (2) ◽  
pp. 1062
Author(s):  
K. Velikou ◽  
K. Tolika ◽  
Ch. Anagnostopoulou
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Mediterranean Forests ◽  
The Mediterranean

A parameter that affects significantly the local, regional and global climate system is land cover and the changes that may occur to it. During winter season, heavy precipitation assists vegetation growth of Mediterranean forests and woodlands, whereas during summer, absence of precipitation and severe heat waves result to arid and semiarid vegetation. For that reason, it was quite interesting to track the changes that may occur in the climate of the Mediterranean region due to land cover/land use changes on regional climate over the Mediterranean region. The main objective of the study is the assessment of the impacts of land cover/land use changes on regional climate over the Mediterranean region. The examined regional climate model used in the study is RegCM4.4.5. Its spatial resolution is 25x25km and different simulations were performed with changes in land cover/land use for the time period 1981-1990. The different simulated data were compared in order to examine the modifications that occur from land cover/land use changes in evapotranspiration and surface albedo to direct and diffuse radiation in the domain of study.

Modelling of long term brownification process in Southern Finland 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katri Rankinen ◽  
Maria Holmberg ◽  
José Cano Bernal ◽  
Anu Akujärvi
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Organic Matter ◽  
Organic Carbon ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Organic Soils ◽  
Minor Effect ◽  
Sulphur Deposition ◽  
Small Catchments

<p>Browning of surface waters due to increased terrestrial loading of organic carbon is observed in boreal regions. It is explained by large scale changes in ecosystems, including decrease in sulphur deposition that affects soil organic matter solubility, increase in temperature that stimulates export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) from organic soils, and increase in precipitation and thus runoff. Land use changes and forestry measures are also observed to be one reason for increased transport of DOC. The effects of brownification extend to ecosystem services like water purification, but also freshwater productivity through limiting light penetration and creating more stable thermal stratification. We studied past trends of organic carbon loading from catchments based on observations since early 1990’s. We made simulations of loading by the physical Persist and INCA models to three small catchments at the Lammi LTER area. We upscaled simulations to the Kokemäenjoki river basin (17 950 km<sup>2</sup>). Even though river processes did not play a role in small catchments, they had influence on DOC concentration at the whole river basin. Brownification was driven mainly by the change in climate and decay of organic matter in soil, with smaller impact of land use change on organic soil types. Decrease in sulphur deposition had only minor effect on brownification.</p>

scholarly journals Detecting the influence of land use changes on discharges and floods in the Meuse River Basin – the predictive power of a ninety-year rainfall-runoff relation?

2006 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 691-701 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. G. Ashagrie ◽  
P. J. de Laat ◽  
M. J. de Wit ◽  
M. Tu ◽  
S. Uhlenbrook
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Forest Type ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Data Set ◽  
River Meuse ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Daily Discharge

Abstract. Quantifying how changes in land use affect the hydrological response at the river basin scale is a current challenge in hydrological science. A daily discharge record (1911–2000) of the river Meuse (21 000 km2; Western Europe) has been simulated with a semi-distributed conceptual model (HBV). The model has been calibrated and validated with a data set for the period 1968–1998. In this study the performance of the model for the period prior to 1968 has been analysed. The observed and simulated discharge records are compared in terms of annual average discharge, summer and winter average discharge, annual maximum daily discharge, and annual maximum 10-day average discharge. The results are discussed with reference to land use change (i.e. forest type change) and shortcomings of the available precipitation and discharge records. The general agreement between the observed and simulated discharge records is good (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency: 0.89–0.93), in particular flood volumes and the highest flood peaks are simulated well but the model has problems with the medium floods (shape and peak value). However, there are some systematic deviations between the observed and simulated discharges during specific periods. The simulation result could somewhat be improved by taking the historical land use into consideration. But the systematic overestimation of the discharge for the period 1933–1968 could not be attributed to observed changes in land use. It is concluded that the overall impact of land use changes in the Meuse basin is too small to be detected given the uncertainties in the available records.

scholarly journals Regional Climate Change in Tropical and Northern Africa due to Greenhouse Forcing and Land Use Changes

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 114-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Paeth ◽  
Kai Born ◽  
Robin Girmes ◽  
Ralf Podzun ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Tropical Africa ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
African Climate ◽  
Simulated Climate

Abstract Human activity is supposed to affect the earth’s climate mainly via two processes: the emission of greenhouse gases and aerosols and the alteration of land cover. While the former process is well established in state-of-the-art climate model simulations, less attention has been paid to the latter. However, the low latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to land use changes, especially in tropical Africa where frequent drought episodes were observed during recent decades. Here several ensembles of long-term transient climate change experiments are presented with a regional climate model to estimate the future pathway of African climate under fairly realistic forcing conditions. Therefore, the simulations are forced with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations as well as land use changes until 2050. Three different scenarios are prescribed in order to assess the range of options inferred from global political, social, and economical development. The authors find a prominent surface heating and a weakening of the hydrological cycle over most of tropical Africa, resulting in enhanced heat stress and extended dry spells. In contrast, the large-scale atmospheric circulation in upper levels is less affected, pointing to a primarily local effect of land degradation on near-surface climate. In the model study, it turns out that land use changes are primarily responsible for the simulated climate response. In general, simulated climate changes are not concealed by internal variability. Thus, the effect of land use changes has to be accounted for when developing more realistic scenarios for future African climate.

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