scholarly journals Modeling and Risk Analysis of Chemical Terrorist Attacks: A Bayesian Network Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 2051 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rongchen Zhu ◽  
Xiaofeng Hu ◽  
Xin Li ◽  
Han Ye ◽  
Nan Jia
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Industrial Chemicals ◽  
Toxic Industrial Chemicals ◽  
Terrorism Risk ◽  
Chemical Terrorism ◽  
The Impact

The chemical terrorist attack is an unconventional form of terrorism with vast scope of influence, strong concealment, high technical means and severe consequences. Chemical terrorism risk refers to the uncertainty of the effects of terrorist organisations using toxic industrial chemicals/drugs and classic chemical weapons to attack the population. There are multiple risk factors infecting chemical terrorism risk, such as the threat degree of terrorist organisations, attraction of targets, city emergency response capabilities, and police defense capabilities. We have constructed a Bayesian network of chemical terrorist attacks to conduct risk analysis. The scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis are applied to validate the model and analyse the impact of the vital factor on the risk of chemical terrorist attacks. The results show that the model can be used for simulation and risk analysis of chemical terrorist attacks. In terms of controlling the risk of chemical terrorist attack, patrol and surveillance are less critical than security checks and police investigations. Security check is the most effective approach to decrease the probability of successful attacks. Different terrorist organisations have different degrees of threat, but the impacts of which are limited to the success of the attack. Weapon types and doses are sensitive to casualties, but it is the level of emergency response capabilities that dominates the changes in casualties. Due to the limited number of defensive resources, to get the best consequence, the priority of the deployment of defensive sources should be firstly given to governmental buildings, followed by commercial areas. These findings may provide the theoretical basis and method support for the combat of the public security department and the safety prevention decision of the risk management department.

OP or Not OP: The Medical Challenge at the Chemical Terrorism Scene

2005 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 155-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amir Krivoy ◽  
Ido Layish ◽  
Eran Rotman ◽  
Avi Goldberg ◽  
Yoav Yehezkelli
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Clinical Findings ◽  
Weapons Of Mass Destruction ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Industrial Chemicals ◽  
Mass Destruction ◽  
Toxic Agent ◽  
Chemical Terrorism ◽  
Cognitive Framework ◽  
Medical Teams

AbstractSince the 1995 Tokyo subway sarin attack, terrorist attacks involving weapons of mass destruction or other industrial chemicals present worldwide security and health concerns. On-scene medical triage and treatment in such events is crucial to save as many lives as possible and minimize the deleterious effects of the toxic agent involved. Since there are many chemicals that can be used as potential terrorist weapons, the medical challenge for the emergency medical services (EMS) is a combination of: (1) recognizing that a chemical terrorist attack (non-conventional) has occurred; and (2) identifying the toxic agent followed by proper antidotal treatment. The latter must be done as quickly as possible, preferably on-scene. The most valuable decision at this stage should be whether the agent is organophosphate (OP) or not OP, based on clinical findings observed by pre-trained, first responders. This decision is crucial, since only OP intoxication has readily available, rapidly acting, onscene, specific agents such as atropine and one of the oximes, preferably administered using autoinjectors. Due to the lack of a specific antidote, exposure to other agents (such as industrial chemicals, e.g., chlorine, bromide, or ammonia) should be treated on-scene symptomatically with non-specific measures, such as decontamination and supportive treatment. This paper proposes an algorithm as a cognitive framework for the medical teams on-scene. This algorithm should be part of the medical team's training for preparedness for chemical terrorist attacks, and the team should be trained to use it in drills. Implementing this path of thinking should improve the medical outcome of such an event.

An automatic decision algorithm and simulation performance analysis for public safety

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Xiangwei Qi ◽  
Weimin Pan ◽  
Bingcai Chen ◽  
Gulila Altenbek
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Response ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Scheduling Algorithm ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Mathematical Form ◽  
Decision Algorithm ◽  
Simulation Performance ◽  
Whole Process ◽  
Real Scene ◽  
Crowd Evacuation

As the current society is increasingly facing major challenges from extremism and terrorism, protecting key urban public facilities and important targets from destruction is an important challenge facing the security departments of all countries. Based on real scene, this paper conducts researches on anti-terrorism security game algorithms and emergency response models in response to the three key links of before, during and after terrorist attacks. First of all, this paper constructs a multi-round joint attack game and emergency response model based on cooperation, establishes the optimization problem of solving the defender’s optimal strategy in mathematical form, and then obtains the optimal defense strategy. Secondly, in response to the fact that terrorists are not completely rational, a new hybrid model is constructed to propose an efficient allocation and scheduling algorithm for safe resources in response to terrorist attacks. Thirdly, a model of crowd evacuation strategy after a terrorist attack is built based on the problem of crowd evacuation in multiple rounds of premeditated cooperative attacks. Finally, taking the area of the first ring of a certain city as a real scene, a complete game system of the whole process is constructed, and the game effectiveness evaluation of the existing security resource allocation scheme in the first ring area is carried out. Through the research of this thesis, the author puts forward some new technical ideas for the current society’s anti-terrorism governance, and hopes to provide some technical references for the decision-making of security agencies.

scholarly journals Effects of terrorist attacks on access to maternal healthcare services: a national longitudinal study in Burkina Faso

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (9) ◽  
pp. e002879
Author(s):  
Thomas Druetz ◽  
Lalique Browne ◽  
Frank Bicaba ◽  
Matthew Ian Mitchell ◽  
Abel Bicaba
Keyword(s):  
Antenatal Care ◽  
Burkina Faso ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Healthcare Services ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Cesarean Sections ◽  
Maternal Healthcare ◽  
District Hospitals ◽  
The Impact

IntroductionMost of the literature on terrorist attacks’ health impacts has focused on direct victims rather than on distal consequences in the overall population. There is limited knowledge on how terrorist attacks can be detrimental to access to healthcare services. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of terrorist attacks on the utilisation of maternal healthcare services by examining the case of Burkina Faso.MethodsThis longitudinal quasi-experimental study uses multiple interrupted time series analysis. Utilisation of healthcare services data was extracted from the National Health Information System in Burkina Faso. Data span the period of January 2013–December 2018 and include all public primary healthcare centres and district hospitals. Terrorist attack data were extracted from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data project. Negative binomial regression models were fitted with fixed effects to isolate the immediate and long-term effects of terrorist attacks on three outcomes (antenatal care visits, of facility deliveries and of cesarean sections).ResultsDuring the next month of an attack, the incidence of assisted deliveries in healthcare facilities is significantly reduced by 3.8% (95% CI 1.3 to 6.3). Multiple attacks have immediate effects more pronounced than single attacks. Longitudinal analysis show that the incremental number of terrorist attacks is associated with a decrease of the three outcomes. For every additional attack in a commune, the incidence of cesarean sections is reduced by 7.7% (95% CI 4.7 to 10.7) while, for assisted deliveries, it is reduced by 2.5% (95% CI 1.9 to 3.1) and, for antenatal care visits, by 1.8% (95% CI 1.2 to 2.5).ConclusionTerrorist attacks constitute a new barrier to access of maternal healthcare in Burkina Faso. The exponential increase in terrorist activities in West Africa is expected to have negative effects on maternal health in the entire region.

THE IMPACT OF TERRORISM ON TURKISH BANKS’ STOCKS AND CROSS-BANK VARIATION OF ABNORMAL RETURNS

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (02) ◽  
pp. 2050011
Author(s):  
EDA ORHUN
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Event Study ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Abnormal Returns ◽  
Income Level ◽  
The Other ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Study Analysis ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of the recent terrorist attacks on the Turkish banking sector. Specifically, an event study analysis is executed to estimate the abnormal returns of banks’ stocks in Turkey. According to the results, negative and significant abnormal returns were observed on the event dates of terrorist attacks, those of which especially occurred at international points and touristic places. The study continues with a regression analysis that looks into the cross-bank variation of abnormal returns by using important bank characteristics as predictors. The regression analysis exhibits that banks with higher leverage and larger size are prone to getting more negatively affected by the terrorist attack. On the other hand, banks with higher liquidity and higher income level are likely to have less negative abnormal returns.

scholarly journals Risk Analysis of Urban Dirty Bomb Attacking Based on Bayesian Network

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 306 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheng Tang ◽  
Yijia Li ◽  
Xiaofeng Hu ◽  
Huanggang Wu
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Occurrence Time ◽  
Dirty Bomb ◽  
Urban Security ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Special Time ◽  
Attack Location ◽  
Security Check

Urban dirty bomb attacking is a type of unconventional terrorism threatening the urban security all through the world. In this paper, a Bayesian network of urban dirty bomb attacking is established to analyze the risk of urban dirty bomb attacking. The impacts of factors such as occurrence time, location, wind fields, the size of dirty bomb, emergency response and defense approaches on casualty from both direct blast and radiation-caused cancers are examined. Results show that sensitivity of casualty from cancers to wind fields are less significant; the impact of emergency response on the direct casualty from blast is not large; the size of the dirty bomb results in more casualties from cancers than that from bomb explosions; Whether an attack is detected by the police is not that related to normal or special time, but significantly depends on the attack location; Furthermore, casualty from cancers significantly depends on the location, while casualty from blast is not considerably influenced by the attacking location; patrol and surveillance are less important than security check in terms of controlling the risk of urban dirt bomb, and security check is the most effective approach to decreasing the risk of urban dirty bomb.

Exposure levels for chemical threat compounds: Information to facilitate chemical incident response

2013 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veronique D. Hauschild, MPH ◽  
Annetta Watson, PhD
Keyword(s):  
Occupational Safety ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Chemical Warfare Agents ◽  
Chemical Exposure ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Incident Response ◽  
Industrial Chemicals ◽  
Toxic Industrial Chemicals ◽  
Warfare Agents ◽  
Exposure Levels

Although not widely known, a robust set of peer-reviewed public health and occupational exposure levels presently exist for key chemical warfare agents (CWAs) and certain acutely toxic industrial chemicals (TICs) identified as terrorist attack threats. Familiarity with these CWA and TIC exposure levels and their historic applications has facilitated emergency management decision-making by public and environmental health decision-makers. Specifically, multiple air, soil, and water exposure levels for CWAs and TICs summarized here have been extensively peer-reviewed and published; many have been recognized and are in use by federal and state health agencies as criteria for hazard zone prediction and assessment, occupational safety, and “how clean is clean enough” decisions. The key, however, is to know which criteria are most appropriate for specific decisions.While public safety is critical, high levels of concern often associated with perceived or actual proximity to extremely toxic chemical agents could result in overly cautious decisions that generate excessive delays, expenditure of scarce resources, and technological difficulties. Rapid selection of the most appropriate chemical exposure criteria is recommended to avoid such problems and expedite all phases of chemical incident response and recovery.

Enhanced Contaminated Human Remains Pouch: Initial development and preliminary performance assessments

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela M. Iseli, BS ◽  
Hai-Doo Kwen, PhD ◽  
Mayeen Ul-Alam, MS ◽  
Mahalingam Balasubramanian, PhD ◽  
Shyamala Rajagopalan, PhD
Keyword(s):  
Emergency Response ◽  
Sulfur Mustard ◽  
Human Remains ◽  
Performance Assessments ◽  
Proof Of Concept ◽  
Industrial Chemicals ◽  
Private Company ◽  
Initial Development ◽  
Toxic Industrial Chemicals ◽  
Functional Prototype

Objectives: To produce a proof of concept prototype Enhanced Contaminated Human Remains Pouch (ECHRP) with self-decontamination capability to provide increased protection to emergency response personnel.Design: The key objective was to decrease the concentration of toxic chemicals through the use of an absorbent and reactive nanocellulose liner. Additionally, nanomaterials with biocidal properties were developed and tested as a “stand-alone” treatment.Setting: Private company research laboratory.Patients/participants: Not applicable.Interventions: Not applicable.Main outcome measures: Production of a functional prototype.Results: A functional prototype capable of mitigating the threats due to sulfur mustard, Soman, and a large variety of liquid and vapor toxic industrial chemicals was produced. Stand-alone biocidal treatment efficacy was validated.Conclusions: The ECHRP provides superior protection from both chemical and biological hazards to various emergency response personnel and human remains handlers.

scholarly journals Effect of 7 July 2005 terrorist attacks in London on suicide in England and Wales

2009 ◽  
Vol 194 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emad Salib ◽  
Mario Cortina-Borja
Keyword(s):  
Suicide Rate ◽  
Control Charts ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Similar Reduction ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Icd 10 ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

BackgroundA reduction in suicide in England and Wales has been reported after the attacks of 11 September 2001 in the USA. It may be plausible therefore to expect a much greater impact on suicide in the UK in response to the events of 7 July 2005, caused by the first suicide terrorist attack by Islamic extremists on British soil.AimsTo examine the effect of the 7 July 2005 terrorist attacks in London on suicide rates in England and Wales.MethodAnalysis of number of suicide (ICD–10 codes X60–X84) and undetermined injury deaths (ICD–10 codes Y10–Y34) reported in England and Wales in the 12 weeks before and after 7 July 2005. We used Shewhart Control Charts based on Poisson rates to explore adjusted daily and weekly suicide rates and rate differences with respect to 7 July 2005.ResultsA brief but significant reduction in daily suicide rate was observed a few days after the terrorist attack in London on 7 July 2005. Further reduction was also observed on the 21 July 2005, coinciding with the second wave of attacks. No similar reduction in suicide was seen during the same period in the previous 4 years. Poisson regression models with indicator variables for each day in July 2005 revealed a reduction of 40% of the expected daily rate for these 2 days only. We found no evidence of any longer-term effect on suicide.ConclusionsThe study findings are contrary to our expectation and only weakly support Durkheim's theory that periods of national threat lower the suicide rate through the impact on social cohesion. It is possible that previous experience of IRA terrorism in the UK may have limited the effect of the 7 July 2005 attacks on suicide in England and Wales. The shock value of suicide terrorism and its psychological potency appear to diminish over time as the tactic becomes overused.

scholarly journals Risk Analysis of Chemical Plant Explosion Accidents Based on Bayesian Network

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rongchen Zhu ◽  
Xin Li ◽  
Xiaofeng Hu ◽  
Deshui Hu
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Chemical Plant ◽  
Equipment Safety ◽  
Ongoing Work ◽  
Property Loss ◽  
Personnel Safety ◽  
Explosion Accidents ◽  
The Impact

Many chemical plant explosion accidents occur along with the development of the chemical industry. Meanwhile, the interaction and influence of various factors significantly increase the uncertainty of the evolution process of such accidents. This paper presents a framework to dynamically evaluate chemical plant explosion accidents. We propose twelve nodes to represent accident evolution and establish a Bayesian network model for chemical plant explosion accidents, combining historical data with expert experience to support the prevention, management, and real-time warning. Hypothetical scenarios and catastrophic explosion scenarios were analyzed by setting different combinations of states for nodes. Moreover, the impacts of factors such as factory type, material form, accident equipment, the emergency response on casualty and property loss are evaluated. We find that sensitivity of property loss and casualties to factory type and ongoing work are less significant; the equipment factors result in more casualties than that from personnel factors; the impact of emergency response on the accident results is significant; equipment safety management and personnel safety training are the most important measures to prevent chemical plant explosion risks.

scholarly journals The Impact of Terrorist Attacks on Foreign Exchange Rate: Case Study of Turkish Lira versus Pound Sterling

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mansoor Maitha ◽  
Jehar Mustofa ◽  
Ugur Gok
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Turkish Lira

In this study the impact of terrorist attacks on exchange rate is estimated. Particularly, the study focuses on Turkish terrorist attacks and its implication on Turkish lira versus pound sterling exchange rate. In order, to find the causal effect the study employed Autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bound testing approach as an estimation technique. Accordingly, the analysis reveals that terrorist attack has a negative impact on the exchange rate in both short and long-run. However, the negative effect of terrorism tends to be small in both the short-run and long-run. More precisely, terrorist attack depreciates the exchange rate between Turkish lira and pound sterling by approximately 0.00072 in the next trading day. The long-term effect also shows that terrorist attack depreciates the exchange rate on average by 0.00212.

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