scholarly journals Leading Enterovirus Genotypes Causing Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Guangzhou, China: Relationship with Climate and Vaccination against EV71

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 292
Author(s):  
Zhicheng Du ◽  
Yong Huang ◽  
Wayne R. Lawrence ◽  
Jianxiong Xu ◽  
Zhicong Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Genotype Frequency ◽  
Targeted Prevention ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Log Ratio

(1) Background: Assignment of pathogens to the correct genus, species, and type is vital for controlling infectious epidemics. However, the role of different enteroviruses during hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics and the major contributing factors remain unknown. (2) Methods: HFMD cases from 2016 to 2018 in Guangzhou, China were collected. The relationship between HFMD cases and genotype frequency, as well as the association between genotype frequency and climate factors, were studied using general linear models. We transformed the genotype frequency to the isometric log-ratio (ILR) components included in the model. Additionally, vaccination rates were adjusted in the climate-driven models. (3) Results: We observed seasonal trends in HFMD cases, genotype frequency, and climate factors. The model regressing case numbers on genotype frequency revealed negative associations with both the ILRs of CAV16 (RR = 0.725, p < 0.001) and EV71 (RR = 0.421, p < 0.001). The model regressing genotype frequency on driven factors showed that the trends for EV71 proportions were inversely related to vaccination rate (%, β = −0.152, p = 0.098) and temperature (°C, β = −0.065, p = 0.004). Additionally, the trends for CVA16 proportions were inversely related to vaccination rate (%, β = −0.461, p = 0.004) and temperature (°C, β = −0.068, p = 0.031). The overall trends for genotype frequency showed that EV71 decreased significantly, while the trends for CVA16 increased annually. (4) Conclusions: Our findings suggest a potential pathway for climate factors, genotype frequency, and HFMD cases. Our study is practical and useful for targeted prevention and control, and provides environmental-based evidence.

scholarly journals Climate-Driven Trends in Pathogen Spectrum of HFMD

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhicheng Du ◽  
Yong Huang ◽  
Wayne R. Lawrence ◽  
Jianxiong Xu ◽  
Zhicong Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Targeted Prevention ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Vaccination Rates ◽  
And Control ◽  
Log Ratio ◽  
Pathogen Spectrum

Abstract Background: Pathogen spectrum is vital during infectious disease epidemics. However, the role of pathogen spectrum during hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics and the major contributing factors remains unknown.Methods: HFMD cases from 2016 to 2018 in Guangzhou, China were collected. The relationship between HFMD cases and pathogen spectrum, as well as the association between pathogen spectrum and climate factors were studied using general linear models. We transformed the pathogen spectrum to the isometric log-ratio (ILR) components included in the model. Additionlly, vaccination rates were adjusted in the climate driven models.Results: We observed seasonal trends in HFMD cases, pathogen spectrum, and climate factors. The model regressing case numbers on pathogen spectrum revealed negative associations with both the ILRs of CAV16 (RR = 0.725, P<0.001) and EV71 (RR = 0.421, P<0.001). The model regressing pathogen spectrum on driven factors showed that the trends for EV71 proportions were inversely related to vaccination rate (%, β = -0.152, P=0.098) and temperature (°C , β = -0.065, P=0.004). Additionally, the trends for CVA16 proportions were inversely related to vaccination rate (%, β = -0.461, P=0.004) and temperature (°C , β = -0.068, P=0.031). The overall trends for pathogen spectrum showed that EV71 decreased significantly, while the trends for CVA16 increased annually.Conclusions: Our findings suggest a potential pathway for climate factors - pathogen spectrum - HFMD cases. Our study is practical and useful for targeted prevention and control, as well as provides environmental-based evidence.

scholarly journals Associations between ambient air pollution and daily incidence of pediatric hand, foot and mouth disease in Ningbo, 2014–2016: a distributed lag nonlinear model

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shaohua Gu ◽  
Decheng Li ◽  
Beibei Lu ◽  
Ruixue Huang ◽  
Guozhang Xu
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Nonlinear Models ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Ambient Air Pollution ◽  
Targeted Prevention ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Foot And Mouth

Abstract Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) has high prevalence around the world, with serious consequences for children. Due to the long survival period of HFMD virus in ambient air, air pollutants may play a critical role in HFMD epidemics. We collected data on daily cases of HFMD among children aged 0–14 years in Ningbo City between 2014 and 2016. Distributed lag nonlinear models were used to assess the effects of particulate matter (PM2.5), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) on the daily incidence of HFMD among children, with analyses stratified by gender and age. Compared with moderate levels of air pollution, high SO2 levels had a relative risk (RR) of 2.32 (95% CI 1.42–3.79) and high NO2 levels had a RR of 2.01 (95% CI 1.22–3.31). The RR of O3 was 2.12 (95% CI 1.47–3.05) and that of PM2.5 was 0.77 (95% CI 0.64–0.92) at moderate levels of air pollution. Specifically, high levels of SO2 and NO2 had RRs of 2.39 (95% CI 1.44–3.96) and 2.02 (95% CI 1.21–3.39), respectively, among 0–4-year-old children, while high O3 had an RR of 2.31 (95% CI 1.09–4.89) among 5–14-year-old children. Our findings suggest significant associations of high SO2 and NO2 levels and moderate O3 levels in HFMD epidemics, and also indicate that air pollution causes lagged effects on HFMD epidemics. Our study provides practical and useful data for targeted prevention and control of HMFD based on environmental evidence.

scholarly journals Weather effects on hand, foot, and mouth disease at individual level: a case-crossover study

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhicheng Du ◽  
Shao Lin ◽  
Tia Marks ◽  
Wangjian Zhang ◽  
Te Deng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Public Health Issue ◽  
Targeted Prevention ◽  
Weather Factors ◽  
Lag Effects ◽  
Case Crossover ◽  
Foot And Mouth

Abstract Background Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) raises an urgent public health issue in the Asia-Pacific region, especially in China. The associations between weather factors and HFMD have been widely studied but with inconsistent results. Moreover, previous studies utilizing ecological design could not rule out the bias of exposure misclassification and unobserved confounders. Methods We used case-crossover analysis to assess the associations of weather factors on HFMD. Individual HFMD cases from 2009 to 2012 in Guangdong were collected and cases located within 10 km of the meteorological monitoring sites were included. Lag effects were examined through the previous 7 days. In addition, we explored the variability by changing the distance within 20 km and 30 km. Results We observed associations between HFMD and weather factors, including temperature and relative humidity. An approximately U-shaped relationship was observed for the associations of temperature on HFMD across the same day and the previous 7 days, while an approximately exponential-shaped was seen for relative humidity. Statistically significant increases in rates of HFMD were associated with each 10-unit increases in temperature [Excess rate (ER): 7.7%; 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 3.9, 11.7%] and relative humidity (ER: 1.9%; 95% CI: 0.7, 3.0%) on lag days 0–6, when assessing within 10 km of the monitoring sites. Potential thresholds for temperature (30.0 °C) and relative humidity (70.3%) detected showed associations with HFMD. The associations remained robust for 20 km and 30 km. Conclusions Our study found that temperature and relative humidity are significantly associated with the increased rates of HFMD. Thresholds and lag effects were observed between weather factors and HFMD. Our findings are useful for planning on targeted prevention and control of HFMD.

scholarly journals Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Hand-Foot-and-Mouth Disease and Its Response to Climate Factors in the Ili River Valley Region of China

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 1954
Author(s):  
Suyan Yi ◽  
Hongwei Wang ◽  
Shengtian Yang ◽  
Ling Xie ◽  
Yibo Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
River Valley ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Temporal And Spatial Distribution ◽  
Positive Correlation ◽  
Ili River Valley ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Temporal And Spatial

Background: As the global climate changes, the number of cases of hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is increasing year by year. This study comprehensively considers the association of time and space by analyzing the temporal and spatial distribution changes of HFMD in the Ili River Valley in terms of what climate factors could affect HFMD and in what way. Methods: HFMD cases were obtained from the National Public Health Science Data Center from 2013 to 2018. Monthly climate data, including average temperature (MAT), average relative humidity (MARH), average wind speed (MAWS), cumulative precipitation (MCP), and average air pressure (MAAP), were obtained from the National Meteorological Information Center. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of HFMD from 2013 to 2018 were obtained using kernel density estimation (KDE) and spatiotemporal scan statistics. A regression model of the incidence of HFMD and climate factors was established based on a geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) model and a generalized additive model (GAM). Results: The KDE results show that the highest density was from north to south of the central region, gradually spreading to the whole region throughout the study period. Spatiotemporal cluster analysis revealed that clusters were distributed along the Ili and Gongnaisi river basins. The fitted curves of MAT and MARH were an inverted V-shape from February to August, and the fitted curves of MAAP and MAWS showed a U-shaped change and negative correlation from February to May. Among the individual climate factors, MCP coefficient values varied the most while MAWS values varied less from place to place. There was a partial similarity in the spatial distribution of coefficients for MARH and MAT, as evidenced by a significant degree of fit performance in the whole region. MCP showed a significant positive correlation in the range of 15–35 mm, and MAAP showed a positive correlation in the range of 925–945 hPa. HFMD incidence increased with MAT in the range of 15–23 °C, and the effective value of MAWS was in the range of 1.3–1.7 m/s, which was positively correlated with incidences of HFMD. Conclusions: HFMD incidence and climate factors were found to be spatiotemporally associated, and climate factors are mostly non-linearly associated with HFMD incidence.

scholarly journals Temporal and spatial analysis of hand, foot, and mouth disease in relation to climate factors: A study in the Mekong Delta region, Vietnam

2017 ◽  
Vol 581-582 ◽  
pp. 766-772 ◽  
Author(s):  
Huong Xuan Nguyen ◽  
Cordia Chu ◽  
Huong Lien Thi Nguyen ◽  
Ha Thanh Nguyen ◽  
Cuong Manh Do ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Analysis ◽  
Mekong Delta ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Delta Region ◽  
Foot And Mouth ◽  
Temporal And Spatial

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal analysis of hand, foot and mouth disease data using time-lag geographically-weighted regression

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhi-Min Hong ◽  
Hu-Hu Wang ◽  
Yan-Juan Wang ◽  
Wen-Rui Wang
Keyword(s):  
Geographically Weighted Regression ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
Foot And Mouth Disease ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Mouth Disease ◽  
Weighted Regression ◽  
Climate Factors ◽  
Foot And Mouth

Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a common and widespread infectious disease. Previous studies have presented evidence that climate factors, including the monthly averages of temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, wind speed and Cumulative Risk (CR) all have a strong influence on the transmission of HFMD. In this paper, the monthly time-lag geographically- weighted regression model was constructed to investigate the spatiotemporal variations of effect of climate factors on HFMD occurrence in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China. From the spatial and temporal perspectives, the spatial and temporal variations of effect of climate factors on HFMD incidence are described respectively. The results indicate that the effect of climate factors on HFMD incidence shows very different spatial patterns and time trends. The findings may provide not only an indepth understanding of spatiotemporal variation patterns of the effect of climate factors on HFMD occurrence, but also provide helpful evidence for making measures of HFMD prevention and control and implementing appropriate public health interventions at the county level in different seasons.

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