scholarly journals Assessment of Land-Use Scenarios at a National Scale Using Intensity Analysis and Figure of Merit Components

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 379
Author(s):  
Kikuko Shoyama
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Figure Of Merit ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Intensity Analysis ◽  
Land Change ◽  
National Scale ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
Vegetation Maps ◽  
Calibration Time

To address the impacts of future land changes on biodiversity and ecosystem services, land-use scenarios have been developed at the national scale in Japan. However, the validation of land-use scenarios remains a challenge owing to the lack of an appropriate validation method. This research developed land-use maps for 10 land-use categories to calibrate a land-change model for the 1987–1998 period, simulate changes during the 1998–2014 period, and validate the simulation for the 1998–2014 period. Following an established method, this study assessed the three types of land change: (1) reference change during the calibration time interval, (2) simulation change during the validation time interval, and (3) reference change during the validation time interval, using intensity analysis and figure of merit components (hits, misses, and false alarms). The results revealed the cause of the low accuracy of the national scale land-use scenarios as well as priority solutions, such as aligning the underlying spatial vegetation maps and improving the model to reduce two types of disagreement between the simulation and reference maps. These findings should help to improve the accuracy of model predictions and help to better inform policymakers during the decision-making process.

scholarly journals Enhanced Intensity Analysis to Quantify Categorical Change and to Identify Suspicious Land Transitions: A Case Study of Nanchang, China

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (20) ◽  
pp. 3323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zheyu Xie ◽  
Robert Gilmore Pontius Jr ◽  
Jinliang Huang ◽  
Vilas Nitivattananon
Keyword(s):  
Confusion Matrix ◽  
Capital City ◽  
Jiangxi Province ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Temporal Difference ◽  
Intensity Analysis ◽  
Land Change ◽  
Remotely Sensed Data ◽  
Community Needs ◽  
Map Errors

Conventional methods to analyze a transition matrix do not offer in-depth signals concerning land changes. The land change community needs an effective approach to visualize both the size and intensity of land transitions while considering possible map errors. We propose a framework that integrates error analysis, intensity analysis, and difference components, and then uses the framework to analyze land change in Nanchang, the capital city of Jiangxi province, China. We used remotely sensed data for six categories at four time points: 1989, 2000, 2008, and 2016. We had a confusion matrix for only 2016, which estimated that the map of 2016 had a 12% error, while the temporal difference during 2008–2016 was 22% of the spatial extent. Our tools revealed suspected errors at other years by analyzing the patterns of temporal difference. For example, the largest component of temporal difference was exchange, which could indicate map errors. Our framework identified categories that gained during one time interval then lost during the subsequent time interval, which raised the suspicion of map error. This proposed framework facilitated visualization of the size and intensity of land transitions while illustrating possible map errors that the profession routinely ignores.

Forest carbon trajectories: Consequences of alternative land-use scenarios in New England

2021 ◽  
Vol 69 ◽  
pp. 102310
Author(s):  
Meghan Graham MacLean ◽  
Matthew J. Duveneck ◽  
Joshua Plisinski ◽  
Luca L. Morreale ◽  
Danelle Laflower ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
New England ◽  
Forest Carbon ◽  
Land Use Scenarios

Climate and land use change impacts on water resources in Sardinia (Italy)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dario Ruggiu ◽  
Salvatore Urru ◽  
Roberto Deidda ◽  
Francesco Viola
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Land Use Scenarios ◽  
Near Future

<p>The assessment of climate change and land use modifications effects on hydrological cycle is challenging. We propose an approach based on Budyko theory to investigate the relative importance of natural and anthropogenic drivers on water resources availability. As an example of application, the proposed approach is implemented in the island of Sardinia (Italy), which is affected by important processes of both climate and land use modifications. In details, the proposed methodology assumes the Fu’s equation to describe the mechanisms of water partitioning at regional scale and uses the probability distributions of annual runoff (Q) in a closed form. The latter is parametrized by considering simple long-term climatic info (namely first orders statistics of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration) and land use properties of basins.</p><p>In order to investigate the possible near future water availability of Sardinia, several climate and land use scenarios have been considered, referring to 2006-2050 and 2051-2100 periods. Climate scenarios have been generated considering fourteen bias corrected outputs of climatic models from EUROCORDEX’s project (RCP 8.5), while three land use scenarios have been created following the last century tendencies.</p><p>Results show that the distribution of annual runoff in Sardinia could be significantly affected by both climate and land use change. The near future distribution of Q generally displayed a decrease in mean and variance compared to the baseline.   </p><p>The reduction of  Q is more critical moving from 2006-2050 to 2051-2100 period, according with climatic trends, namely due to the reduction of annual rainfall and the increase of potential evapotranspiration. The effect of LU change on Q distribution is weaker than the climatic one, but not negligible.</p>

scholarly journals Determination of level and time thresholds for detectors with normalized indicator process

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
С.Б. Егоров ◽  
Р.И. Горбачев
Keyword(s):  
False Alarm ◽  
Average Rate ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
False Alarm Probability ◽  
Statistical Characteristics ◽  
False Alarms ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Number Of False Alarms ◽  
Time Threshold ◽  
Selection Threshold

«Выбросовая» вероятностная модель работы обнаружителя в режиме ожидания сигнала, предложенная авторами в [1], использована для оценки влияния селекции выбросов по длительности на вероятность ложной тревоги. Флюктуационные выбросы помехового индикаторного процесса, превысившие пороги селекции по уровню и длительности, трактуются как редкие события на интервале ожидания сигнала, подчиняющиеся вероятностному закону Пуассона. При условии, что средний период следования ложных выбросов превышает интервал корреляции индикаторного процесса, получено соотношение между средним числом выбросов любой длительности и средним числом выбросов, превысивших пороговую длительность. На основании известных числовых и вероятностных характеристик выбросов нормального стационарного случайного процесса получен уравнения, связывающие относительные пороги селекции по уровню и длительности с вероятностью ложной тревоги на интервале ожидания сигнала. Предложена методика определения порога селекции по длительности для снижения порога селекции по уровню до заданной величины. «Emissional» probability model of the detector in stand-by mode proposed by the authors in [1], is intended for estimation of false alarm rate dependence from the value of time-selection threshold. Fluctuation emissions of the noise indicator process are interpreted as rare events correspond to Poisson distribution. Assuming that average rate of false alarms exceeds the correlation interval of indicator process, obtained equation between average number of false alarms of any duration and average number of false alarms exceed the time threshold. Based on known numerical and statistical characteristics of emissions of normal stationary random process obtained equations, relating time and level thresholds with false alarm probability on stand-by mode time interval. Also suggested a method of determining time threshold intended to reduce level threshold.

Land change effects on ecosystem degradation across Nigerian agro-ecological zones from 1975 through 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felicia Akinyemi ◽  
Chinwe Ifejika Speranza
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Degradation ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Land Change ◽  
Land Area ◽  
Degraded Land ◽  
Vegetation Productivity ◽  
Ecological Zones ◽  
Settlement Areas ◽  
Agro Ecological Zones

<p>Land system change is implicated in many sustainability challenges as its alteration impacts ecosystems and exacerbate the vulnerability of communities, particularly where livelihoods are largely dependent on natural resources. The production of a land use-cover map for year 2020 extended the time-series for assessing land use-cover dynamics over a period of 45 years (1975-2020). The case of Nigeria is examined as the land area encompass several agro-ecological zones. The classification scheme countries utilise for estimating Land Degradation Neutrality baseline and monitoring of the Sustainable Development Goal 15.3.1 indicator (proportion of degraded land over total land area) was used, based on seven land use-cover classes (tree-covered area, grassland, cropland, wetland, artificial surface area, otherland, and waterbody). Severity of land degradation, computed as changes in vegetation productivity using the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), as well as changes in ecosystem service values were examined across the different land use-cover types, in areas of change and persistence. Land degradation is most severe in settlement areas and wetlands with declining trends in 34% of settlement areas and 29% in wetlands respectively. About 19% of tree-covered areas experienced increasing trends. In some areas of land use-cover persistence, vegetation productivity declined despite no land change occurring. For example, vegetation productivity declined in about 35% and 9% of persistent wetlands and otherland respectively between 2000 and 2020, whereas there was improvement in 22% of persistent grasslands, 18% of persistent otherlands and 12% of persistent croplands. In land change areas, about 12% and 8% of wetlands and tree-covered areas had declining vegetation trends respectively, whereas it improved the most in croplands (20%), and grasslands (16%). With some wetland, cropland and otherland areas degrading the most, protecting these critical ecosystems is required to sustain their functions and services. The finding that vegetation productivity may decline in areas of persistence underscores the importance of intersecting land use-cover (in terms of persistence and change) with vegetation productivity to identify pathways for enhancing ecological sustainability.</p>

Prediksi Perubahan Lahan Terbangun Dengan OBIA LCM Pada Citra Terfusi di Kota Kendari

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 170
Author(s):  
Adnan Adnan ◽  
Fitra Saleh ◽  
Iradat Salihin
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Landsat Imagery ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Land Change ◽  
Land Use Classification ◽  
Landsat 8 Oli ◽  
Land Change Modeler ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Land Changes

Abstrak: Penggunaan lahan disetiap tahunnya akan mengalami perubahan. Perkembangan tersebut bisa jadi tidak terkendali, sehingga perencanaan prediksi perubahan lahan penting untuk dikaji. Dalam memprediksi dapat dilakukan dengan menggunakan citra, khususnya citra Landsat. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: (1) distribusi penggunaan lahan terbangun di Kota Kendari pada tahun 2014 dan 2019 dengan metode OBIA pada citra terfusi; (2) melihat arah perubahan penggunaan lahan terbangun di Kota Kendari pada tahun 2024 dan 2029 dengan metode Land Change Modeler (LCM). Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini  yaitu metode klasifikasi penggunaan lahan berbasis piksel OBIA dan pemodelan prediksi perubahan penggunaan lahan Land Change Modeler (LCM). Hasil penelitian ini antara lain: (1) luas lahan terbangun pada tahun 2014 di Kota Kendari seluas 6.061,85 hektar dan luas penggunaan lahan terbangun di Kota Kendari pada tahun 2019 seluas 6.716,96 hektar dengan perubahan penggunaan lahan terbangun tahun 2014 sampai dengan tahun 2019 dengan pertambahan luas 2,43%; (2) Arah perubahan penggunaan lahan terbangun di Kota Kendari diprediksikan cenderung berkembang ke arah Kecamatan Baruga karena dipengaruhi oleh dua faktor yaitu kemiringan lereng dan jaringan jalan. Kata Kunci : Penggunaan Lahan, Landsat 8 OLI, Penajaman Citra, OBIA, LCM Abstract: Land use will change every year. The development may be uncontrollable, so predictive planning of land changes is important to review. In predicting  can be done using  imagery, especially Landsat imagery. This study aims to:(1)  the distribution of land  use  built  in Kendari City in 2014 and 2019 with OBIA method on diffusion imagery; (2) see the direction of land use changes built in Kendari City in  2024 and 2029 with land change modeler  (LCM) method. The methods used in this study are OBIA pixel-based land  use  classification method and land use change prediction modeling land change modeler (LCM).  The results of this study include: (1) land area  built in 2014 in Kendari City aswide as 6,061.85 hectars and land use area built in Kendari City in 2019 aswide as 6,716.96 hectars with land use changes built in 2014 to 2019 with an increase  of  2.43%; (2) The direction of land use changes built in Kendari City  is predicted   to tend to  develop  towards  Baruga Subdistrict because it is influenced by two factors, namely slope and road network. Keywords: Land Use,  Landsat 8 OLI,  Image Sharpening,  OBIA, LCM

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