scholarly journals Mathematical Modelling of Climate Change and Variability in the Context of Outdoor Ergonomics

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (22) ◽  
pp. 2920
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Alexey Bogomolov ◽  
Andrey Ronzhin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Power Spectrum ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Mathematical Modelling ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model

The current climate change, unlike previous ones, is caused by human activity and is characterized by an unprecedented rate of increase in the near-surface temperature and an increase in the frequency and intensity of hazardous weather and climate events. To survive, society must be prepared to implement adaptation strategies and measures to mitigate the negative effects of climate change. This requires, first of all, knowledge of how the climate will change in the future. To date, mathematical modelling remains the only method and effective tool that is used to predict the climate system’s evolution under the influence of natural and anthropogenic perturbations. It is important that mathematics and its methods and approaches have played a vital role in climate research for several decades. In this study, we examined some mathematical methods and approaches, primarily, mathematical modelling and sensitivity analysis, for studying the Earth’s climate system, taking into account the dependence of human health on environmental conditions. The essential features of stochastic climate models and their application for the exploration of climate variability are examined in detail. As an illustrative example, we looked at the application of a low-order energy balance model to study climate variability. The effects of variations in feedbacks and the climate system’s inertia on the power spectrum of global mean surface temperature fluctuations that characterized the distribution of temperature variance over frequencies were estimated using a sensitivity analysis approach. Our confidence in the obtained results was based on the satisfactory agreement between the theoretical power spectrum that was derived from the energy balance model and the power spectrum that was obtained from observations and coupled climate models, including historical runs of the CMIP5 models.

Revisiting albedo from a fuzzy perspective

Kybernetes ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Morteza Pakdaman ◽  
Majid Habibi Nokhandan ◽  
Yashar Falamarzi
Keyword(s):  
Differential Equation ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Fuzzy Number ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Fuzzy Differential Equation ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fuzzy Energy ◽  
Fuzzy Derivative

PurposeThe aim of this paper is to revisit the albedo for uncertainty. The albedo is considered as a fuzzy value due to some realistic reasons which they will be discussed in details. After defining an appropriate uncertain albedo by using fuzzy set theory, the related energy balance model is also redefined as a fuzzy differential equation by using the concept of fuzzy derivative.Design/methodology/approachThe well-known Earth energy balance model is redefined as a fuzzy differential equation by using the concept of fuzzy derivative. Thus, instead of an ordinary differential equation, a fuzzy differential equation arises which it's solution procedure will be discussed in details.FindingsResults indicate that the fuzzy uncertainty for albedo causes more real results after solving the fuzzy energy balance equation. Considering albedo as a fuzzy number is more realistic than considering a single certain number for albedo of a surface. This is due to this fact that the Earth's surface coverage is not crisp and the boundaries of different types of lands are not consistent. The proposed approach of this paper can help us to provide more realistic climate models and construct dynamical models which can model the albedo based on its variability.Originality/valueIn this paper, we defined fuzzy energy balance model as a fuzzy differential equation for the first time. We also, considered albedo as a fuzzy number which is another novel approach.

scholarly journals Transient Climate Response in a Two-Layer Energy-Balance Model. Part II: Representation of the Efficacy of Deep-Ocean Heat Uptake and Validation for CMIP5 AOGCMs

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 1859-1876 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Geoffroy ◽  
D. Saint-Martin ◽  
G. Bellon ◽  
A. Voldoire ◽  
D. J. L. Olivié ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Properties ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Heat Uptake

Abstract In this second part of a series of two articles analyzing the global thermal properties of atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation models (AOGCMs) within the framework of a two-layer energy-balance model (EBM), the role of the efficacy of deep-ocean heat uptake is investigated. Taking into account such an efficacy factor is shown to amount to representing the effect of deep-ocean heat uptake on the local strength of the radiative feedback in the transient regime. It involves an additional term in the formulation of the radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), which explains the nonlinearity between radiative imbalance and the mean surface temperature observed in some AOGCMs. An analytical solution of this system is given and this simple linear EBM is calibrated for the set of 16 AOGCMs of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) studied in Part I. It is shown that both the net radiative fluxes at TOA and the global surface temperature transient response are well represented by the simple EBM over the available period of simulations. Differences between this two-layer EBM and the previous version without an efficacy factor are analyzed and relationships between parameters are discussed. The simple model calibration applied to AOGCMs constitutes a new method for estimating their respective equilibrium climate sensitivity and adjusted radiative forcing amplitude from short-term step-forcing simulations and more generally a method to compute their global thermal properties.

scholarly journals Applications of a thermal-based two-source energy balance model using Priestley-Taylor approach for surface temperature partitioning under advective conditions

2016 ◽  
Vol 540 ◽  
pp. 574-587 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisheng Song ◽  
William P. Kustas ◽  
Shaomin Liu ◽  
Paul D. Colaizzi ◽  
Hector Nieto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model

scholarly journals Leaf-scale experiments reveal important omission in the Penman-Monteith equation

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stanislaus J. Schymanski ◽  
Dani Or
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Stomatal Conductance ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Experimental Results ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Sensible Heat ◽  
Starting Point

Abstract. The Penman-Monteith (PM) equation is commonly considered the most advanced physically based approach to computing transpiration rates from plants considering stomatal conductance and atmospheric drivers. It has been widely evaluated at the canopy scale, where aerodynamic and canopy resistance to water vapour are difficult to estimate directly, leading to various empirical corrections when scaling from leaf to canopy. Here we evaluated the PM equation directly at the leaf scale, using a detailed leaf energy balance model and direct measurements in a controlled, insulated wind tunnel using artificial leaves with fixed and pre-defined "stomatal" conductance. Experimental results were consistent with a detailed leaf energy balance model; however, the results revealed systematic deviations from PM-predicted fluxes, which pointed to fundamental problems with the PM equation. Detailed analysis of the derivation by Monteith (1965) and later amendments revealed two errors in considering the effect of stomata and the two-sided exchange of sensible heat. A corrected set of analytical solutions for leaf temperature as well as latent and sensible heat flux is presented and comparison with the original PM equation indicates a major improvement in reproducing experimental results at the leaf scale. The errors in the original PM equation and its failure to reproduce experimental results at the leaf scale (for which it was originally derived) propagate into inaccurate sensitivities of transpiration and sensible heat fluxes to changes in atmospheric conditions, such as those associated with climate change (even with reasonable present day performance after calibration). The new formulation presented here rectifies some of the shortcomings of the PM equation and could provide a more robust starting point for canopy representation and climate change studies.

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