scholarly journals Transient Climate Response in a Two-Layer Energy-Balance Model. Part II: Representation of the Efficacy of Deep-Ocean Heat Uptake and Validation for CMIP5 AOGCMs

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 1859-1876 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Geoffroy ◽  
D. Saint-Martin ◽  
G. Bellon ◽  
A. Voldoire ◽  
D. J. L. Olivié ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Properties ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Heat Uptake

Abstract In this second part of a series of two articles analyzing the global thermal properties of atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation models (AOGCMs) within the framework of a two-layer energy-balance model (EBM), the role of the efficacy of deep-ocean heat uptake is investigated. Taking into account such an efficacy factor is shown to amount to representing the effect of deep-ocean heat uptake on the local strength of the radiative feedback in the transient regime. It involves an additional term in the formulation of the radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), which explains the nonlinearity between radiative imbalance and the mean surface temperature observed in some AOGCMs. An analytical solution of this system is given and this simple linear EBM is calibrated for the set of 16 AOGCMs of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) studied in Part I. It is shown that both the net radiative fluxes at TOA and the global surface temperature transient response are well represented by the simple EBM over the available period of simulations. Differences between this two-layer EBM and the previous version without an efficacy factor are analyzed and relationships between parameters are discussed. The simple model calibration applied to AOGCMs constitutes a new method for estimating their respective equilibrium climate sensitivity and adjusted radiative forcing amplitude from short-term step-forcing simulations and more generally a method to compute their global thermal properties.

scholarly journals Transient Climate Response in a Two-Layer Energy-Balance Model. Part I: Analytical Solution and Parameter Calibration Using CMIP5 AOGCM Experiments

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (6) ◽  
pp. 1841-1857 ◽  
Author(s):  
O. Geoffroy ◽  
D. Saint-Martin ◽  
D. J. L. Olivié ◽  
A. Voldoire ◽  
G. Bellon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Properties ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Analytical Solution ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Transient Climate Response

Abstract This is the first part of a series of two articles analyzing the global thermal properties of atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation models (AOGCMs) within the framework of a two-layer energy-balance model (EBM). In this part, the general analytical solution of the system is given and two idealized climate change scenarios, one with a step forcing and one with a linear forcing, are discussed. These solutions give a didactic description of the contributions from the equilibrium response and of the fast and slow transient responses during a climate transition. Based on these analytical solutions, a simple and physically based procedure to calibrate the two-layer model parameters using an AOGCM step-forcing experiment is introduced. Using this procedure, the global thermal properties of 16 AOGCMs participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are determined. It is shown that, for a given AOGCM, the EBM tuned with only the abrupt 4×CO2 experiment is able to reproduce with a very good accuracy the temperature evolution in both a step-forcing and a linear-forcing experiment. The role of the upper-ocean and deep-ocean heat uptakes in the fast and slow responses is also discussed. One of the main weaknesses of the simple EBM discussed in this part is its ability to represent the evolution of the top-of-the-atmosphere radiative imbalance in the transient regime. This issue is addressed in Part II by taking into account the efficacy factor of deep-ocean heat uptake.

Insights into the Zonal-Mean Response of the Hydrologic Cycle to Global Warming from a Diffusive Energy Balance Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (18) ◽  
pp. 7481-7493 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Siler ◽  
Gerard H. Roe ◽  
Kyle C. Armour
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Energy Transport ◽  
Hydrologic Cycle ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Heat Uptake

Recent studies have shown that the change in poleward energy transport under global warming is well approximated by downgradient transport of near-surface moist static energy (MSE) modulated by the spatial pattern of radiative forcing, feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake. Here we explore the implications of downgradient MSE transport for changes in the vertically integrated moisture flux and thus the zonal-mean pattern of evaporation minus precipitation ( E − P). Using a conventional energy balance model that we have modified to represent the Hadley cell, we find that downgradient MSE transport implies changes in E − P that mirror those simulated by comprehensive global climate models (GCMs), including a poleward expansion of the subtropical belt where E > P, and a poleward shift in the extratropical minimum of E − P associated with the storm tracks. The surface energy budget imposes further constraints on E and P independently: E increases almost everywhere, with relatively little spatial variability, while P must increase in the deep tropics, decrease in the subtropics, and increase in middle and high latitudes. Variations in the spatial pattern of radiative forcing, feedbacks, and ocean heat uptake across GCMs modulate these basic features, accounting for much of the model spread in the zonal-mean response of E and P to climate change. Thus, the principle of downgradient energy transport appears to provide a simple explanation for the basic structure of hydrologic cycle changes in GCM simulations of global warming.

Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (7) ◽  
pp. 360-364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerald A. Meehl ◽  
Julie M. Arblaster ◽  
John T. Fasullo ◽  
Aixue Hu ◽  
Kevin E. Trenberth
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Ocean Heat Uptake ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Heat Uptake

scholarly journals Mathematical Modelling of Climate Change and Variability in the Context of Outdoor Ergonomics

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (22) ◽  
pp. 2920
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Alexey Bogomolov ◽  
Andrey Ronzhin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Energy Balance ◽  
Power Spectrum ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Mathematical Modelling ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model

The current climate change, unlike previous ones, is caused by human activity and is characterized by an unprecedented rate of increase in the near-surface temperature and an increase in the frequency and intensity of hazardous weather and climate events. To survive, society must be prepared to implement adaptation strategies and measures to mitigate the negative effects of climate change. This requires, first of all, knowledge of how the climate will change in the future. To date, mathematical modelling remains the only method and effective tool that is used to predict the climate system’s evolution under the influence of natural and anthropogenic perturbations. It is important that mathematics and its methods and approaches have played a vital role in climate research for several decades. In this study, we examined some mathematical methods and approaches, primarily, mathematical modelling and sensitivity analysis, for studying the Earth’s climate system, taking into account the dependence of human health on environmental conditions. The essential features of stochastic climate models and their application for the exploration of climate variability are examined in detail. As an illustrative example, we looked at the application of a low-order energy balance model to study climate variability. The effects of variations in feedbacks and the climate system’s inertia on the power spectrum of global mean surface temperature fluctuations that characterized the distribution of temperature variance over frequencies were estimated using a sensitivity analysis approach. Our confidence in the obtained results was based on the satisfactory agreement between the theoretical power spectrum that was derived from the energy balance model and the power spectrum that was obtained from observations and coupled climate models, including historical runs of the CMIP5 models.

scholarly journals On the Meaning of Feedback Parameter, Transient Climate Response, and the Greenhouse Effect: Basic Considerations and the Discussion of Uncertainties

2010 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 137-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gerhard Kramm ◽  
Ralph Dlugi
Keyword(s):  
Energy Balance ◽  
Greenhouse Effect ◽  
Equilibrium Temperature ◽  
Energy Balance Model ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Radiation Balance ◽  
Climate Response ◽  
Transient Climate Response ◽  
Feedback Parameter ◽  
The Earth

In this paper we discuss the meaning of feedback parameter, greenhouse effect and transient climate response usually related to the globally averaged energy balance model of Schneider and Mass. After scrutinizing this model and the corresponding planetary radiation balance we state that (a) this globally averaged energy balance model is flawed by unsuitable physical considerations, (b) the planetary radiation balance for the Earth in the absence of an atmosphere is fraught by the inappropriate assumption of a uniform surface temperature, the so-called radiative equilibrium temperature of about 255 K, and (c) the effect of the radiative anthropogenic forcing, considered as a perturbation to the natural system, is much smaller than the uncertainty involved in the solution of the model of Schneider and Mass. This uncertainty is mainly related to the empirical constants suggested by various authors and used for predicting the emission of infrared radiation by the Earth's skin. Furthermore, after inserting the absorption of solar radiation by atmospheric constituents and the exchange of sensible and latent heat between the Earth and the atmosphere into the model of Schneider and Mass the surface temperatures become appreciably lesser than the radiative equilibrium temperature. Moreover, both the model of Schneider and Mass and the Dines-type two-layer energy balance model for the Earthatmosphere system, containing the planetary radiation balance for the Earth in the absence of an atmosphere as an asymptotic solution, do not provide evidence for the existence of the so-called atmospheric greenhouse effect if realistic empirical data are used.

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