scholarly journals Estimates of the Change in the Oceanic Precipitation Off the Coast of Europe due to Increasing Greenhouse Gas Emissions

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Tapiador ◽  
Andrés Navarro ◽  
Cecilia Marcos ◽  
Raúl Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Coupled Models ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
Oceanic Precipitation

This paper presents a consensus estimate of the changes in oceanic precipitation off the coast of Europe under increasing greenhouse gas emissions. An ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) and three gauge and satellite-derived observational precipitation datasets are compared. While the fit between the RCMs’ simulation of current climate and the observations shows the consistency of the future-climate projections, uncertainties in both the models and the measurements need to be considered to generate a consensus estimate of the potential changes. Since oceanic precipitation is one of the factors affecting the thermohaline circulation, the feedback mechanisms of the changes in the net influx of freshwater from precipitation are relevant not only for improving oceanic-atmospheric coupled models but also to ascertain the climate signal in a global warming scenario.

scholarly journals Uncertainties in projections of the Baltic Sea ecosystem driven by an ensemble of global climate models

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sofia Saraiva ◽  
H. E. Markus Meier ◽  
Helén Andersson ◽  
Anders Höglund ◽  
Christian Dieterich ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Nutrient Load ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
The Baltic

Abstract. Many coastal seas worldwide are affected by human impacts such as eutrophication, causing, inter alia, oxygen depletion and extensive areas of hypoxia. Depending on the region, global warming may reinforce these environmental changes by reducing air–sea oxygen fluxes, intensifying internal nutrient cycling and increasing river-borne nutrient loads. The development of appropriate management plans to more effectively protect the marine environment requires projections of future marine ecosystem states. However, projections with regional climate models commonly suffer from shortcomings in the driving global General Circulation Models (GCMs). The differing sensitivities of GCMs to increased greenhouse gas emissions impact regional projections considerably. In this study, we focused on one of the most threatened coastal seas, the Baltic Sea, and estimated uncertainties in projections due to GCM deficiencies relative to uncertainties caused by future greenhouse gas emissions and nutrient load scenarios. To address the latter, transient simulations of the period 1975–2098 were performed using the initial conditions from an earlier reconstruction with the same Baltic Sea model (starting in 1850). To estimate the impacts of GCM deficiencies, dynamical downscaling experiments with four driving global models were carried out for two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and 8.5, and for three nutrient load scenarios covering the plausible range between low and high loads. The results of primary production, nitrogen fixation, and hypoxic areas show that uncertainties caused by the various nutrient load scenarios are greater than the uncertainties due to global model deficiencies and future greenhouse gas emissions. In all scenario simulations, a proposed nutrient load abatement strategy, i.e., the Baltic Sea Action Plan, will lead to a significant improvement in the overall environmental state. However, the projections cannot provide detailed information on the timing and the reductions of future hypoxic areas due to uncertainties in salinity projections caused by uncertainties in projections of the regional water cycle and of the global mean sea level rise.

scholarly journals Will COVID’s Cleaner Skies Muddy Climate Models?

Eos ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 101 ◽  
Author(s):  
JoAnna Wendel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Gas Emissions

Reduced greenhouse gas emissions for a year or two won’t slow down climate change, but they may throw off scientists’ ability to model short-term phenomena.

Low-Carbon Russia: Prospects after the Crisis

2009 ◽  
pp. 107-120 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Bashmakov
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Potential Energy ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Modeling Tools ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Scenario Approach

On the eve of the worldwide negotiations of a new climate agreement in December 2009 in Copenhagen it is important to clearly understand what Russia can do to mitigate energy-related greenhouse gas emissions in the medium (until 2020) and in the long term (until 2050). The paper investigates this issue using modeling tools and scenario approach. It concludes that transition to the "Low-Carbon Russia" scenarios must be accomplished in 2020—2030 or sooner, not only to mitigate emissions, but to block potential energy shortages and its costliness which can hinder economic growth.

Ecological specificities of the interaction between animal breeding and climate changes, caused by greenhouse gas emissions

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 62-72
Author(s):  
O. Zhukorsky ◽  
O. Nykyforuk ◽  
N. Boltyk
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gases ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Animal Breeding ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Emissions Inventory ◽  
Theoretical Substantiation ◽  
Global Problems

Aim. Proper development of animal breeding in the conditions of current global problems and the decrease of anthropogenic burden on environment due to greenhouse gas emissions, caused by animal breeding activity, require the study of interaction processes between animal breeding and external climatic conditions. Methods. The theoretical substantiation of the problem was performed based on scientifi c literature, statistical informa- tion of the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the data of the National greenhouse gas emissions inventory in Ukraine. Theoretically possible emissions of greenhouse gases into atmosphere due to animal breeding in Ukraine and specifi c farms are calculated by the international methods using the statistical infor- mation about animal breeding in Ukraine and the economic-technological information of the activity of the investigated farms. Results. The interaction between the animal breeding production and weather-and-climate conditions of environment was analyzed. Possible vectors of activity for the industry, which promote global warming and negative processes, related to it, were determined. The main factors, affecting the formation of greenhouse gases from the activity of enterprises, aimed at animal breeding production, were characterized. Literature data, statistical data and calculations were used to analyze the role of animal breeding in the green- house gas emissions in global and national framework as well as at the level of specifi c farms with the consid- eration of individual specifi cities of these farms. Conclusions. Current global problems require clear balance between constant development of sustainable animal breeding and the decrease of the carbon footprint due to the activity of animal breeding.

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