scholarly journals Effect of Permafrost Thawing on Discharge of the Kolyma River, Northeastern Siberia

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 4389
Author(s):  
Kazuyoshi Suzuki ◽  
Hotaek Park ◽  
Olga Makarieva ◽  
Hironari Kanamori ◽  
Masahiro Hori ◽  
...  

With permafrost warming, the observed discharge of the Kolyma River in northeastern Siberia decreased between 1930s and 2000; however, the underlying mechanism is not well understood. To understand the hydrological changes in the Kolyma River, it is important to analyze the long-term hydrometeorological features, along with the changes in the active layer thickness. A coupled hydrological and biogeochemical model was used to analyze the hydrological changes due to permafrost warming during 1979–2012, and the simulated results were validated with satellite-based products and in situ observational records. The increase in the active layer thickness by permafrost warming suppressed the summer discharge contrary to the increased summer precipitation. This suggests that the increased terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) contributed to increased evapotranspiration, which likely reduced soil water stress to plants. As soil freeze–thaw processes in permafrost areas serve as factors of climate memory, we identified a two-year lag between precipitation and evapotranspiration via TWSA. The present results will expand our understanding of future Arctic changes and can be applied to Arctic adaptation measures.

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 3993-4014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian A. Krogh ◽  
John W. Pomeroy

Abstract. The impact of transient changes in climate and vegetation on the hydrology of small Arctic headwater basins has not been investigated before, particularly in the tundra–taiga transition region. This study uses weather and land cover observations and a hydrological model suitable for cold regions to investigate historical changes in modelled hydrological processes driving the streamflow response of a small Arctic basin at the treeline. The physical processes found in this environment and explicit changes in vegetation extent and density were simulated and validated against observations of streamflow discharge, snow water equivalent and active layer thickness. Mean air temperature and all-wave irradiance have increased by 3.7 ∘C and 8.4 W m−2, respectively, while precipitation has decreased 48 mm (10 %) since 1960. Two modelling scenarios were created to separate the effects of changing climate and vegetation on hydrological processes. Results show that over 1960–2016 most hydrological changes were driven by climate changes, such as decreasing snowfall, evapotranspiration, deepening active layer thickness, earlier snow cover depletion and diminishing annual sublimation and soil moisture. However, changing vegetation has a significant impact on decreasing blowing snow redistribution and sublimation, counteracting the impact of decreasing precipitation on streamflow, demonstrating the importance of including transient changes in vegetation in long-term hydrological studies. Streamflow dropped by 38 mm as a response to the 48 mm decrease in precipitation, suggesting a small degree of hydrological resiliency. These results represent the first detailed estimate of hydrological changes occurring in small Arctic basins, and can be used as a reference to inform other studies of Arctic climate change impacts.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian A. Krogh ◽  
John W. Pomeroy

Abstract. The impact of observed changes in climate and vegetation on the hydrology of Arctic basins is often considered to be most sensitive at the tundra-taiga transition where the region is warmest and sub-arctic vegetation is nearest. This study uses weather and land cover observations and a cold regions hydrological model to investigate historical changes in modelled hydrological processes driving the streamflow response of a small Arctic permafrost-underlain basin at the tundra-taiga transition. The physical processes found in this environment and explicit changes in vegetation type and density were simulated and validated against observations of streamflow discharge, snow water equivalent and active layer thickness. Mean air temperature and all-wave irradiance have increased by 3.7 °C and 8.4 W m−2, respectively, while precipitation has decreased from 369 to 321 mm since 1960. Two modelling scenarios were created to separate the effects of changing climate and vegetation on hydrological processes. Results show that over 1960–2016 most hydrological changes were driven by climate changes, such as decreasing snowfall by 7.8 mm decade−1, deepening active layer thickness by 1.8–4.2 cm decade−1, earlier snowcover depletion and ground thaw initiation dates from 1.5 to 3 and by 1 to 3 days decade−1, respectively, and diminishing annual sublimation and soil moisture by 1.3 and 5.9 mm decade−1, respectively. Evapotranspiration decreased by 2.5 mm decade−1, due to decreasing irradiance and soil moisture. Shrub expansion and densification decreases blowing snow redistribution by 20 to 40 mm and sublimation by 1 to 10 mm. Streamflow dropped by 40 mm as a response to the 48 mm decrease in precipitation, suggesting a small degree of hydrological resiliency. These results represent the first detailed estimate of hydrological changes occurring in small Arctic basins, and can be used as a reference to inform other studies of Arctic climate change impacts.


2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 305-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Beer ◽  
A. N. Fedorov ◽  
Y. Torgovkin

Abstract. Based on the map of landscapes and permafrost conditions in Yakutia (Merzlotno-landshaftnaya karta Yakutskoi0 ASSR, Gosgeodeziya SSSR, 1991), rasterized maps of permafrost temperature and active-layer thickness of Yakutia, East Siberia were derived. The mean and standard deviation at 0.5-degree grid cell size are estimated by assigning a probability density function at 0.001-degree spatial resolution. The gridded datasets can be accessed at the PANGAEA repository (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.808240). Spatial pattern of both variables are dominated by a climatic gradient from north to south, and by mountains and the soil type distribution. Uncertainties are highest in mountains and in the sporadic permafrost zone in the south. The maps are best suited as a benchmark for land surface models which include a permafrost module.


Author(s):  
Chao Wang ◽  
Zhengjia Zhang ◽  
Hong Zhang ◽  
Bo Zhang ◽  
Yixian Tang ◽  
...  

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