Best Practice for Measuring Permafrost Temperature in Boreholes Based on the Experience in the Swiss Alps

Temperature measurements in boreholes are the most common method allowing the quantitative and direct observation of permafrost evolution in the context of climate change. Existing boreholes and monitoring networks often emerged in a scientific context targeting different objectives and with different setups. A standardized, well-planned and robust instrumentation of boreholes for long-term operation is crucial to deliver comparable, high-quality data for scientific analyses and assessments. However, only a limited number of guidelines are available, particularly for mountain regions. In this paper, we discuss challenges and devise best practice recommendations for permafrost temperature measurements at single sites as well as in a network, based on two decades of experience gained in the framework of the Swiss Permafrost Monitoring Network PERMOS. These recommendations apply to permafrost observations in mountain regions, although many aspects also apply to polar lowlands. The main recommendations are (1) to thoroughly consider criteria for site selection based on the objective of the measurements as well as on preliminary studies and available data, (2) to define the sampling strategy during planification, (3) to engage experienced drilling teams who can cope with inhomogeneous and potentially unstable subsurface material, (4) to select standardized and robust instrumentation with high accuracy temperature sensors and excellent long-term stability when calibrated at 0°C, ideally with double sensors at key depths for validation and substitution of questionable data, (5) to apply standardized maintenance procedures allowing maximum comparability and minimum data processing, (6) to implement regular data control procedures, and (7) to ensure remote data access allowing for rapid trouble shooting and timely reporting. Data gaps can be avoided by timely planning of replacement boreholes. Recommendations for standardized procedures regarding data quality documentation, processing and final publication will follow later.

Attributing the global increase in permafrost temperatures to human induced climate change

<p>Permafrost temperatures are increasing at the global scale, resulting in permafrost degradation. Besides substantial impacts on Arctic and Alpine hydrology and the stability of landscapes and infrastructure, permafrost degradation can trigger a large-scale release of carbon to the atmosphere with possible global climate feedbacks. Although increasing global air temperature is unanimously linked to human emissions into the atmosphere, the attribution of observed permafrost warming to anthropogenic climate change has so far mostly relied on anecdotal evidence. Here we apply a climate change detection and attribution approach to long permafrost temperature records from 15 boreholes located in the northern Hemisphere and simulated soil temperatures obtained from global climate models contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We show that observed and simulated trends in permafrost temperature are only consistent if the effect of human emissions on the climate system is considered in the simulations. Moreover, the analysis also reveals that neither simulated pre-industrial climate variability nor the effects natural drivers of climate change (e.g. impacts of large volcanic eruptions) suffice to explain the observed trends. While these results are most significant for a global mean assessment, our analysis also reveals that simulated effects of anthropogenic climate change on permafrost temperature are also consistent with the observed record at the station scale. In summary, the quantitative combination of observed and simulated evidence supports the conclusion that anthropogenic climate change is the key driver of increasing permafrost temperatures with implications for carbon cycle-climate feedbacks at the planetary scale.</p>

Heterogenous snow cover derived uncertainty in Arctic carbon budget

<p>The winter of northern Arctic regions is characterized by strong winds that lead to frequent blowing snow and thus heterogeneous snow cover, which critically affects permafrost hydrothermal processes and the associated feedbacks across the northern regions. However until now, observations and models have not documented the blowing snow impacts. The blowing snow process has coupled into a land surface model CHANGE, and the improved model was applied to observational sites in the northeastern Siberia for 1979–2016. The simulated snow depth and soil temperature showed general agreements with the observations. To quantify the impacts of blowing snow on permafrost temperatures and the associated greenhouse gases, two decadal experiments that included or excluded blowing snow, were conducted for the observational sites and over the pan-Arctic scale. The differences between the two experiments represent impacts of the blowing snow on the analytical components. The blowing snow-induced thinner snow depth resulted in cooler permafrost temperature and lower active layer thickness; this lower temperature limited the vegetation photosynthetic activity due to the increased soil moisture stress in terms of larger soil ice portion and hence lower ecosystem productivity. The cooler permafrost temperature is also linked to less decomposition of soil organic matter and lower releases of CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere. These results suggest that the most land models without a blowing snow component likely overestimate the release of greenhouse gases from the tundra regions. There is a strong need to improve land surface models for better simulations and future projections of the northern environmental changes.</p>

Pan-Antarctic map of near-surface permafrost temperatures at 1 km² scale

Permafrost is present within almost all of the Antarctic's ice-free areas, but little is known about spatial variations in permafrost temperatures except for a few areas with established ground temperature measurements. We modelled a temperature at the top of the permafrost (TTOP) for all the ice-free areas of the Antarctic mainland and Antarctic islands at 1 km2 resolution during 2000–2017. The model was driven by remotely sensed land surface temperatures and downscaled ERA-Interim climate reanalysis data, and subgrid permafrost variability was simulated by variable snow cover. The results were validated against in situ-measured ground temperatures from 40 permafrost boreholes, and the resulting root-mean-square error was 1.9 ∘C. The lowest near-surface permafrost temperature of −36 ∘C was modelled at Mount Markham in the Queen Elizabeth Range in the Transantarctic Mountains. This is the lowest permafrost temperature on Earth, according to global-scale modelling results. The temperatures were most commonly modelled between −23 and −18 ∘C for mountainous areas rising above the Antarctic Ice Sheet and between −14 and −8 ∘C for coastal areas. The model performance was good where snow conditions were modelled realistically, but errors of up to 4 ∘C occurred at sites with strong wind-driven redistribution of snow.