scholarly journals An Examination of the Strava Usage Rate—A Parameter to Estimate Average Annual Daily Bicycle Volumes on Rural Roadways

Safety ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 8
Author(s):  
Francisco Javier Camacho-Torregrosa ◽  
David Llopis-Castelló ◽  
Griselda López-Maldonado ◽  
Alfredo García

In Spain, a new challenge is emerging due to the increase of many recreational bicyclists on two-lane rural roads. These facilities have been mainly designed for motorized vehicles, so the coexistence of cyclists and drivers produces an impact, in terms of road safety and operation. In order to analyze the occurrence of crashes and enhance safety for bicycling, it is crucial to know the cycling volume. Standard procedures recommend using data from permanent stations and temporary short counts, but bicycle volumes are rarely monitored in rural roads. However, bicyclists tend to track their leisure and exercise activities with fitness apps that use GPS. In this context, this research aims at analyzing the daily and seasonal variability of the Strava Usage Rate (SUR), defined as the proportion of bicyclists using the Strava app along a certain segment on rural highways, to estimate the Annual Average Daily Bicycle (AADB) volume on rural roads. The findings of this study offer possible solutions to policy makers in terms of planning and design of the cycling network. Moreover, the use of crowdsourced data from the Strava app will potentially save costs to public agencies, since public data could replace costly counting campaigns.

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0254350
Author(s):  
Emma Baillie ◽  
Piers D. L. Howe ◽  
Andrew Perfors ◽  
Tim Miller ◽  
Yoshihisa Kashima ◽  
...  

Building on previous research on the use of macroeconomic factors for conflict prediction and using data on political instability provided by the Political Instability Task Force, this article proposes two minimal forecasting models of political instability optimised to have the greatest possible predictive power for one-year and two-year event horizons, while still making predictions that are fully explainable. Both models employ logistic regression and use just three predictors: polity code (a measure of government type), infant mortality, and years of stability (i.e., years since the last instability event). These models make predictions for 176 countries on a country-year basis and achieve AUPRC’s of 0.108 and 0.115 for the one-year and two-year models respectively. They use public data with ongoing availability so are readily reproducible. They use Monte Carlo simulations to construct confidence intervals for their predictions and are validated by testing their predictions for a set of reference years separate from the set of reference years used to train them. This validation shows that the models are not overfitted but suggests that some of the previous models in the literature may have been. The models developed in this article are able to explain their predictions by showing, for a given prediction, which predictors were the most influential and by using counterfactuals to show how the predictions would have been altered had these predictors taken different values. These models are compared to models created by lasso regression and it is shown that they have at least as good predictive power but that their predictions can be more readily explained. Because policy makers are more likely to be influenced by models whose predictions can explained, the more interpretable a model is the more likely it is to influence policy.


Author(s):  
Evika Karamagioli ◽  
Eleni-Revekka Staiou ◽  
Dimitris Gouscos

The objective of this article is to present four civil society initiatives that attempt to scrutinize government spending using open data from the Greek government OpenGov initiative Diavgeia project (“diavgeia”, in Greek, standing for lucidity). In a period of strong economic recession, Greece is facing one of the most intense social and political crisis of its history, with citizens characterized by substantial disenchantment with politics and a cynical stance about their government and representatives. The Diavgeia project was launched in 2010 by the Greek government with the objective to bring back transparency and trust in the political process, enabling online insights into government spending. By reviewing current bottom-up initiatives in Greece that are using data from Diavgeia in an effort to serve the principles of transparency, openness, and offering public data in a manner easy to understand, evaluate and re-use, we discuss the role of open government mechanisms in introducing a new relation between citizens and policy-makers, tackling contemporary political challenges of democratic societies and reconnecting ordinary people with politics and policy-making.


2015 ◽  
pp. 1149-1165
Author(s):  
Evika Karamagioli ◽  
Eleni-Revekka Staiou ◽  
Dimitris Gouscos

The objective of this article is to present four civil society initiatives that attempt to scrutinize government spending using open data from the Greek government OpenGov initiative Diavgeia project (“diavgeia”, in Greek, standing for lucidity). In a period of strong economic recession, Greece is facing one of the most intense social and political crisis of its history, with citizens characterized by substantial disenchantment with politics and a cynical stance about their government and representatives. The Diavgeia project was launched in 2010 by the Greek government with the objective to bring back transparency and trust in the political process, enabling online insights into government spending. By reviewing current bottom-up initiatives in Greece that are using data from Diavgeia in an effort to serve the principles of transparency, openness, and offering public data in a manner easy to understand, evaluate and re-use, we discuss the role of open government mechanisms in introducing a new relation between citizens and policy-makers, tackling contemporary political challenges of democratic societies and reconnecting ordinary people with politics and policy-making.


2015 ◽  
pp. 866-883
Author(s):  
Evika Karamagioli ◽  
Eleni-Revekka Staiou ◽  
Dimitris Gouscos

The objective of this article is to present four civil society initiatives that attempt to scrutinize government spending using open data from the Greek government OpenGov initiative Diavgeia project (“diavgeia”, in Greek, standing for lucidity). In a period of strong economic recession, Greece is facing one of the most intense social and political crisis of its history, with citizens characterized by substantial disenchantment with politics and a cynical stance about their government and representatives. The Diavgeia project was launched in 2010 by the Greek government with the objective to bring back transparency and trust in the political process, enabling online insights into government spending. By reviewing current bottom-up initiatives in Greece that are using data from Diavgeia in an effort to serve the principles of transparency, openness, and offering public data in a manner easy to understand, evaluate and re-use, we discuss the role of open government mechanisms in introducing a new relation between citizens and policy-makers, tackling contemporary political challenges of democratic societies and reconnecting ordinary people with politics and policy-making.


Author(s):  
Julian Oliver Dörr ◽  
Georg Licht ◽  
Simona Murmann

AbstractCOVID-19 placed a special role on fiscal policy in rescuing companies short of liquidity from insolvency. In the first months of the crisis, SMEs as the backbone of Germany’s economy benefited from large and mainly indiscriminate aid measures. Avoiding business failures in a whatever-it-takes fashion contrasts, however, with the cleansing mechanism of economic crises: a mechanism which forces unviable firms out of the market, thereby reallocating resources efficiently. By focusing on firms’ pre-crisis financial standing, we estimate the extent to which the policy response induced an insolvency gap and analyze whether the gap is characterized by firms which were already struggling before the pandemic. With the policy measures being focused on smaller firms, we also examine whether this insolvency gap differs with respect to firm size. Our results show that the COVID-19 policy response in Germany has triggered a backlog of insolvencies that is particularly pronounced among financially weak, small firms, having potential long-term implications on entrepreneurship and economic recovery.Plain English Summary This study analyzes the extent to which the strong policy support to companies in the early phase of the COVID-19 crisis has prevented a large wave of corporate insolvencies. Using data of about 1.5 million German companies, it is shown that it was mainly smaller firms that experienced strong financial distress and would have gone bankrupt without policy assistance. In times of crises, insolvencies usually allow for a reallocation of employees and capital to more efficient firms. However, the analysis reveals that this ‘cleansing effect’ is hampered in the current crisis as the largely indiscriminate granting of liquidity subsidies and the temporary suspension of the duty to file for insolvency have caused an insolvency gap that is driven by firms which were already in a weak financial position before the crisis. Overall, the insolvency gap is estimated to affect around 25,000 companies, a substantial number compared to the around 16,300 actual insolvencies in 2020. In the ongoing crisis, policy makers should prefer instruments favoring entrepreneurs who respond innovatively to the pandemic instead of prolonging the survival of near-insolvent firms.


2021 ◽  
Vol 123 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-36
Author(s):  
Jeremy Singer ◽  
Ben Pogodzinski ◽  
Sarah Winchell Lenhoff ◽  
Walter Cook

Background/Context Chronic absenteeism has received increased attention from educational leaders and policy makers, in part because of the association between attendance and important student outcomes. Student attendance is influenced by a range of student-, school-, and community-level characteristics, suggesting that a comprehensive and multilayered approach to addressing chronic absenteeism is warranted, particularly in high-poverty urban districts. Given the complexity of factors associated with chronic absenteeism, we draw from ecological systems theory to study absenteeism in Detroit, which has the highest rate of chronic absence of major cities in the country. Purpose/Research Questions We use administrative and public data to advance the ecological approach to chronic absenteeism. In particular, we ask: (1) How are student, neighborhood, and school characteristics associated with individual absenteeism? (2) How are structural and environmental conditions associated with citywide rates of absenteeism? Our study helps to fill a gap in the research on absenteeism by moving beyond a siloed focus on student, family, or school factors, instead placing them in relationship to one another and in their broader socioeconomic context. It also illustrates how researchers, policy makers, and administrators can take a theoretically informed approach to chronic absenteeism and use administrative data to conceptualize the problem and the potential routes to improving it. Research Design Using student-level administrative data on all students living and going to school in Detroit in the 2015–2016 school year, we estimate a series of multilevel logistic regressions that measure the association between student-, neighborhood-, and school-level factors and the likelihood of a Detroit student being chronically absent. We also use publicly available data to examine how macrosystemic conditions (e.g., health, crime, poverty, racial segregation, weather) are correlated with citywide rates of absenteeism in the 2015–2016 school year, and we compare Detroit with other large cities based on those conditions. Findings/Results Student-, neighborhood-, and school-level factors were significant predictors of chronic absenteeism in Detroit. Students were more likely to be chronically absent if they were economically disadvantaged, received special education services, moved schools or residences during the year, lived in neighborhoods with more crime and residential blight, and went to schools with more economically disadvantaged students and less stable student populations. Macro-level factors were also significantly correlated with citywide rates of absenteeism, highlighting Detroit's uniquely challenging context for attendance. Conclusions/Recommendations Our ecological understanding of absenteeism suggests that school-based efforts are necessary but not sufficient to substantially decrease rates of chronic absenteeism in Detroit and other high-absenteeism contexts. Policies that provide short-term relief from economic hardship and aim to reduce inequalities in the long-run must be understood as part of, rather than separate from, a policy agenda for reducing chronic absenteeism.


Author(s):  
Chen (Sarah) Xu ◽  
Liang-Chieh (Victor) Cheng

Natural gas vehicles (NGV) have attracted more and more attention from policy makers since natural gas is a clean substitute for traditional fossil fuel that is also readily accessible. In some areas such as the state of Texas, vehicles that do not use traditional fossil fuel (e.g., NGVs) are exempt from paying fuel taxes. Government financial incentives have motivated substantial adoption of NGVs. This paper studies NGV adoption behavior in both U.S. and Texas markets to estimate the dynamics of NGV diffusion. This research employs well-known Bass diffusion models applied to NGV adoption, using data from both the U.S. and Texas. Among several interesting results, we find that NGV adoption through an imitation effect appears to be significant for the U.S. NGV market.


Author(s):  
Ali Al-Ramini ◽  
Mohammad A Takallou ◽  
Daniel P Piatkowski ◽  
Fadi Alsaleem

Most cities in the United States lack comprehensive or connected bicycle infrastructure; therefore, inexpensive and easy-to-implement solutions for connecting existing bicycle infrastructure are increasingly being employed. Signage is one of the promising solutions. However, the necessary data for evaluating its effect on cycling ridership is lacking. To overcome this challenge, this study tests the potential of using readily-available crowdsourced data in concert with machine-learning methods to provide insight into signage intervention effectiveness. We do this by assessing a natural experiment to identify the potential effects of adding or replacing signage within existing bicycle infrastructure in 2019 in the city of Omaha, Nebraska. Specifically, we first visually compare cycling traffic changes in 2019 to those from the previous two years (2017–2018) using data extracted from the Strava fitness app. Then, we use a new three-step machine-learning approach to quantify the impact of signage while controlling for weather, demographics, and street characteristics. The steps are as follows: Step 1 (modeling and validation) build and train a model from the available 2017 crowdsourced data (i.e., Strava, Census, and weather) that accurately predicts the cycling traffic data for any street within the study area in 2018; Step 2 (prediction) use the model from Step 1 to predict bicycle traffic in 2019 while assuming new signage was not added; Step 3 (impact evaluation) use the difference in prediction from actual traffic in 2019 as evidence of the likely impact of signage. While our work does not demonstrate causality, it does demonstrate an inexpensive method, using readily-available data, to identify changing trends in bicycling over the same time that new infrastructure investments are being added.


Author(s):  
Stewart Barr ◽  
Gareth Shaw

Behavioural change has become regarded as a key tool for policy makers to promote behavioural change that can reduce carbon emissions from personal travel. Yet academic research has suggested that promoting low carbon travel behaviours, in particular those associated with leisure and tourism practices, is particularly challenging because of the highly valued and conspicuous nature of the consumption involved. Accordingly, traditional top-down approaches to developing behavioural change campaigns have largely been ineffectual in this field and this chapter explores innovative ways to understand and develop behavioural change campaigns that are driven from the bottom upwards. In doing so, we draw on emergent literature from management studies and social marketing to explore how ideas of service dominant logic can be used to engage consumers in developing each stage of a behavioural change campaign. Using data and insights from research conducted in the south-east of the UK, we outline and evaluate the process for co-producing knowledge about low carbon travel and climate change. We illustrate how behavioural change campaign creation can be an engaging, lively and productive process of knowledge and experience sharing. The chapter ends by considering the role that co-production and co-creation can have in developing strategies for low carbon mobility and, more broadly, the ways in which publics understand and react to anthropogenic climate change.


2021 ◽  
pp. 175-182
Author(s):  
Rob Kitchin

This chapter evaluates the benefits of evidence-informed policy over anecdote through an account of the financial crash in Ireland and the effect of creating public data stories. If politicians, policy makers, local government, the banks and property developers had paid proper attention to the data, the crash may not have happened, or at least might have had a softer landing. Instead, the data were ignored. The census data showed that all the way through the boom, vacancy rates were increasing, housing completions were running way ahead of household increase, more land was being zoned than could realistically be developed, and land and property prices were overheating. As a consequence, Ireland was still paying the price and continuing to experience a housing crisis. While some oversupply still existed in parts of the country, over a decade of suppressed construction activity and rising population had led to a shortage of housing in the cities and their commuter belts. Moreover, Ireland still has an issue with property data, with some datasets being discontinued, some having quality issues, some released in non-open formats and some still non-existent.


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