scholarly journals Improvement of an Urban Growth Model for Railway-Induced Urban Expansion

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (17) ◽  
pp. 6801
Author(s):  
Alvin Christopher G. Varquez ◽  
Sifan Dong ◽  
Shinya Hanaoka ◽  
Manabu Kanda
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Urban Growth Model ◽  
Sleuth Model ◽  
The Right ◽  
Better Than

Increasing population in urban areas drives urban cover expansion and spatial growth. Developing urban growth models enables better understanding and planning of sustainable urban areas. The SLEUTH model is an urban growth simulation model which uses the concept of cellular automata to predict land cover change using six spatial inputs of historical data (slope, land use, exclusion, urban, transportation, and hill-shade). This study investigates the potential of SLEUTH to capture railway-induced urban growth by testing methods that can consider railways as input to the model, namely (1) combining the exclusion layer with a station map; (2) creating a new input layer representing stations in addition to the default six inputs. Districts in Tsukuba, Japan and Gurugram, India which historically showed evidence of urban growth by railway construction are investigated. Results reveal that both proposed methods can capture railway impact on urban growth, while the former algorithm under the right settings may perform better than the latter at finer resolutions. Coarser resolution representation (300-m grid-spacing) eventually reduces the differences in accuracy among the default SLEUTH model and the proposed algorithms.

scholarly journals Using building types and demographic data to improve our understanding and use of urban sprawl simulation

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Mojtaba Eslahi ◽  
Rani El Meouche ◽  
Anne Ruas
Keyword(s):  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Geographical Information Systems ◽  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Sleuth Model

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Many studies, using various modeling approaches and simulation tools have been made in the field of urban growth. A multitude of models, with common or specific features, has been developed to reconstruct the spatial occupation and changes in land use. However, today most of urban growth techniques just use the historical geographic data such as urban, road and excluded maps to simulate the prospective urban maps. In this paper, adding buildings and population data as urban fabric factors, we define different urban growth simulation scenarios. Each simulation corresponds to policies that are more or less restrictive of space considering what these territories can accommodate as a type of building and as a global population.</p><p>Among the urban growth modeling techniques, dynamic models, those based on Cellular Automata (CA) are the most common for their applications in urban areas. CA can be integrated with Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to have a high spatial resolution model with computational efficiency. The SLEUTH model is one of the cellular automata models, which match the dynamic simulation of urban expansion and could be adapted to morphological model of the urban configuration and fabric.</p><p>Using the SLEUTH model, this paper provides different simulations that correspond to different land priorities and constraints. We used common data (such as topographic, buildings and demography data) to improve the realism of each simulation and their adequacy with the real world. The findings allow having different images of the city of tomorrow to choose and reflect on urban policies.</p>

Detection of Urban Expansion by Using DMSP-OLS, Landsat Data and Linear Spectral Unmixing Method

2019 ◽  
pp. 1372-1382
Author(s):  
Cihan Uysal ◽  
Derya Maktav
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Dynamic Structure ◽  
Spectral Unmixing ◽  
Landsat Images ◽  
Green Vegetation ◽  
Linear Mixture Model ◽  
Linear Spectral Unmixing ◽  
Spectral Mixture

Urbanization has been increasingly continuing in Turkey and in the world for the last 30 years. Especially for the developing countries, urbanization is a necessary fact for the sustainability of the urban growth. Yet, this growth should be controlled and planned; otherwise, many environmental problems might occur. Therefore, the urban areas having dynamic structure should be monitored periodically. Monitoring the changes in urban environment can be provided with land cover land use (LCLU) maps produced by the pixel based classification methods using ‘maximum likelihood' and ‘isodata' techniques. However, these thematic maps might bring about inaccurate classification results in heterogeneous areas especially where low spatial resolution satellite data is used since, in these approaches, each pixel is represented with only one class value. In this study, considering the spectral mixture analysis (SMA) each pixel is represented by endmember fractions. The earth is represented more accurately using 'substrate (S)', ‘green vegetation (V)' and ‘dark surfaces (D)' spectral endmember reflectances with this analysis based on linear mixture model. Here, the surrounding of Izmit Gulf, one of the most industrialized areas of Turkey, has been chosen as the study area. SMA has been applied to LANDSAT images of the years of 1984, 1999 and 2009. In addition, DMSP-OLS data of 1992, 1999 and 2009 has been used to detect urban areas. According to the results, the changes in LCLU and especially the urban growth areas have been detected accurately using the SMA method.

Spatiotemporal Pattern Analysis of Rapid Urban Expansion Using GIS and Remote Sensing

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 55-70 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun Joong Kim
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Local Scale ◽  
Spatiotemporal Pattern ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Modeling Studies

Rapidly growing urban areas tend to reveal distinctive spatial and temporal variations of land use/land cover in a locally urbanized environment. In this article, the author analyzes urban growth phenomena at a local scale by employing Geographic Information Systems, remotely sensed image data from 1984, 1994, and 2004, and landscape shape index. Since spatial patterns of land use/land cover changes in small urban areas are not fully examined by the current GIS-based modeling studies or simulation applications, the major objective of this research is to identify and examine the spatial and temporal dynamics of land use changes of urban growth at a local scale. Analytical results demonstrate that sizes, locations, and shapes of new developments are spatio-temporally associated with their landscape variations and major transportation arteries. The key findings from this study contribute to GIS-based urban growth modeling studies and urban planning practices for local communities.

scholarly journals Coupling scenarios of urban growth and flood hazards along the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy)

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (10) ◽  
pp. 2331-2346 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Sekovski ◽  
C. Armaroli ◽  
L. Calabrese ◽  
F. Mancini ◽  
F. Stecchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Digital Terrain Model ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Terrain Model ◽  
Digital Terrain ◽  
Sleuth Model ◽  
Emilia Romagna Region ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Flood Prone Areas

Abstract. The extent of coastline urbanization reduces their resilience to flooding, especially in low-lying areas. The study site is the coastline of the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy), historically affected by marine storms and floods. The main aim of this study is to investigate the vulnerability of this coastal area to marine flooding by considering the dynamics of the forcing component (total water level) and the dynamics of the receptor (urban areas). This was done by comparing the output of the three flooding scenarios (10, 100 and > 100 year return periods) to the output of different scenarios of future urban growth up to 2050. Scenario-based marine flooding extents were derived by applying the Cost–Distance tool of ArcGIS® to a high-resolution digital terrain model. Three scenarios of urban growth (similar-to-historic, compact and sprawled) up to 2050 were estimated by applying the cellular automata-based SLEUTH model. The results show that if the urban growth progresses compactly, flood-prone areas will largely increase with respect to similar-to-historic and sprawled growth scenarios. Combining the two methodologies can be useful for identification of flood-prone areas that have a high potential for future urbanization, and is therefore crucial for coastal managers and planners.

Long-Run Urban Growth with Agglomeration Economies

1987 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1083-1092 ◽  
Author(s):  
T Miyao
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Economy ◽  
Agglomeration Economies ◽  
Urban Growth Model ◽  
Steady Growth ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Growth Equilibrium ◽  
Set Up ◽  
The City

It is widely recognized that agglomeration economies are a crucially important factor in explaining the existence and growth of urban areas, and therefore should be explicitly taken into consideration in long-run urban growth analysis. Once such economies are introduced, however, the urban economy tends to diverge from a steady state equilibrium and may ‘explode’ without limit. A possible way to solve this dilemma is shown. First, a simple urban growth model with production and factor migration functions in the presence of agglomeration economies is set up. It is proved that the urban economy with agglomeration economies tends to approach a kind of balanced growth path in the long run, although the growth rate itself is accelerating without limit. It is also shown that if the total demand for the output of the city is growing at an exogenously given rate, a sustainable steady growth equilibrium exists and is unique and globally stable. Then, land is introduced to show that the availability of the third factor of production will make it more likely to achieve a steady growth equilibrium in the presence of agglomeration economies. Last, the model is generalized to include many factors of production.

scholarly journals MODELLING URBAN GROWTH FOR BANGKOK AND ASSESSING LINKAGES WITH ROAD DENSITY AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-4/W19 ◽  
pp. 255-262
Author(s):  
S. A. Kamarajugedda ◽  
E. Y. M. Lo
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Sustainable Urban Development ◽  
City Development ◽  
Road Density ◽  
The Future

Abstract. The fastest urbanization is occurring in the Global South which includes many developing nations in Asia. However, a rapid and unplanned urban growth could threaten the sustainability of the process. A key step towards a sustainable urban development is to better understand interdependencies amongst urban growth patterns, infrastructure and socio-economic indicators. Here we chose Bangkok, Thailand as a megacity case study to assess the spatio-temporal urban growth dynamics and specifically its dependency with road density at intra-city scales. The SLEUTH urban growth model is further applied for predicting future expansion over the next decade and to assess the future intra-city expansion. Urban expansion patterns for Bangkok were generated for 1987 and 2017 using Landsat derived urban land-cover maps. Open Street Map (OSM) is used to generate a 2017 road density map. The urban expansion (1987–2017) was observed to follow a radially outward expanding pattern inland, with the logarithmic urban expansion rate having an inverted concave trend with road density. The rising/falling limbs then indicated an increase/decrease of urban expansion for which a road density “turning point” is readily identified and further used to develop a road density-based zoning map that highlights the different intra-city urban expansion rates. The SLEUTH predicted urban growth till year 2027 which also showed expansion outward from existing urban areas. The future expansion trend is also consistent with the turning point trend. This study showed that such spatial-temporal analysis of urban expansion coupled with SLEUTH can be useful for investigating likely outcomes of city development plans.

Location Choice and Urban Growth in a Rent-Seeking Society

1988 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 158-177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruce L. Benson ◽  
M. D. Faminow
Keyword(s):  
Urban Growth ◽  
Specific Growth ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Location Theory ◽  
Rent Seeking ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Growth Theory ◽  
Complete Understanding ◽  
Urban Growth Model

Gordon Tullock suggested that as rent-seeking becomes increasingly important, location choices and urban growth patterns will be affected. Resources should be diverted to cities where government units are most able to grant rents. The implications of this argument are expanded upon using principles of location theory and location-specific growth theory. An empirical test of an urban growth model provides support for Tullock's contentions. By considering rent seeking in the context of location and urban growth models, the implications of the rent-seeking paradigm are extended. Simultaneously, a more complete understanding of relative urban growth rates is gained.

scholarly journals A Review of Simulation Urban Growth Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.11) ◽  
pp. 17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feri Nugroho ◽  
Omar Ismael Al-Sanjary ◽  
. .
Keyword(s):  
Growth Model ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Model Identification ◽  
Urban Modeling ◽  
Rapid Population Growth ◽  
Urban Growth Model ◽  
Urban Growth Modeling ◽  
Growth Planning ◽  
The City

Urban development has become a problem in many cities, especially in developing countries. The availability of areas for development is needed to deal with rapid population growth and urbanization. The purpose of this study was to identify urban growth models. Due to urban growth planning, the city will be more manageable and organized. From the conclusions of urban modeling identification can provide an idea of what model is appropriate for use in urban growth studies. The results of this urban growth model identification could be a reference in urban growth modeling in better urban planning.  

scholarly journals Modelling and simulating ‘informal urbanization’: An integrated agent-based and cellular automata model of urban residential growth in Ghana

2022 ◽  
pp. 239980832110688
Author(s):  
Felix S. K. Agyemang ◽  
Elisabete Silva ◽  
Sean Fox
Keyword(s):  
Cellular Automata ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Urban Growth ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
City Region ◽  
African City ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Support Tool ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Urban Growth Model

The global urban population is expected to grow by 2.5 billion over the next three decades, and 90% of this growth will occur in African and Asian countries. Urban expansion in these regions is often characterised by ‘informal urbanization’ whereby households self-build without planning permission in contexts of ambiguous, insecure or disputed property rights. Despite the scale of informal urbanization, it has received little attention from scholars working in the domains of urban analytics and city science. Towards addressing this gap, we introduce TI-City, an urban growth model designed to predict the locations, legal status and socio-economic status of future residential developments in an African city. In a bottom-up approach, we use agent-based and cellular automata modelling techniques to predict the geospatial behaviour of key urban development actors, including households, real estate developers and government. We apply the model to the city-region of Accra, Ghana, drawing on local data collection, including a household survey, to parameterise the model. Using a multi-spatial-scale validation technique, we compare TI-City’s ability to simulate historically observed built-up patterns with SLEUTH, a highly popular urban growth model. Results show that TI-City outperforms SLEUTH at each scale, suggesting the model could offer a valuable decision support tool in similar city contexts.

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