scholarly journals Is It Possible to Distinguish Global and Regional Climate Change from Urban Land Cover Induced Signals? A Mid-Latitude City Example

Urban Science ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah Wiesner ◽  
Benjamin Bechtel ◽  
Jana Fischereit ◽  
Verena Gruetzun ◽  
Peter Hoffmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Urban Land Cover

scholarly journals Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

2015 ◽  
Vol 370 ◽  
pp. 21-27 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Skougaard Kaspersen ◽  
N. Høegh Ravn ◽  
K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen ◽  
H. Madsen ◽  
M. Drews
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
High Intensity ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Land Cover Changes ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
European Cities ◽  
Urban Land Cover ◽  
Pluvial Flooding

Abstract. The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall are expected to increase in many places due to climate change and thus further exacerbate the risk of pluvial flooding. This paper presents a combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach suitable for examining the susceptibility of European cities to pluvial flooding owing to recent changes in urban land cover, under present and future climatic conditions. Estimated changes in impervious urban surfaces based on Landsat satellite imagery covering the period 1984–2014 are combined with regionally downscaled estimates of current and expected future rainfall extremes to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood hazard assessments. The methodology is evaluated for the Danish city of Odense. Results suggest that the past 30 years of urban development alone has increased the city's exposure to pluvial flooding by 6% for 10-year rainfall up to 26% for 100-year rainfall. Corresponding estimates for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (2071–2100) are in the order of 40 and 100%, indicating that land cover changes within cities can play a central role for the cities' exposure to flooding and conversely also for their adaptation to a changed climate.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impacts of Urbanization on Regional Climate Change: A Case Study in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan Area

2013 ◽  
Vol 2013 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinyan Zhan ◽  
Juan Huang ◽  
Tao Zhao ◽  
Xiaoli Geng ◽  
Yihui Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Urban Land Use ◽  
Sufficient Evidence ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

China has experienced rapid urbanization since 1978, and the dramatic change in land cover is expected to have significant impacts on the climate change. Some models have been used to simulate the relationship between land use and land cover change and climate change; however, there is still no sufficient evidence for the impacts of urbanization on the regional climate. This study aims to identify the impact of urban land use change on regional temperature and precipitation in summer in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan area during 2030–2040 based on the analysis of the simulation results of WRF model. Firstly, we analyzed the land use change and climate change during 1995–2005 in the study area. The impacts of future urbanization on regional climate change were then simulated. The results indicate that urbanization in this area has affected the regional climate and has the potential to increase temperature and precipitation in the summer of 2030–2040. These research results can offer decision-making support information related to future planning strategies in urban environments in consideration of regional climate change.

scholarly journals Comparison of the impacts of urban development and climate change in exposing European cities to pluvial flooding

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Per Skougaard Kaspersen ◽  
Nanna Høegh Ravn ◽  
Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen ◽  
Henrik Madsen ◽  
Martin Drews
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
European Cities ◽  
Urban Land Cover ◽  
Pluvial Flooding ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Abstract. The economic and human consequences of extreme precipitation and the related flooding of urban areas have increased rapidly over the past decades. Some of the key factors that affect the risks to urban areas include climate change, the densification of assets within cities and the general expansion of urban areas. In this paper, we examine and compare quantitatively the impact of climate change and recent urban development patterns on the exposure of four European cities to pluvial flooding. In particular, we investigate the degree to which pluvial floods of varying severity and in different geographical locations are influenced to the same extent by changes in urban land cover and climate change. We have selected the European cities of Odense, Vienna, Strasbourg and Nice for analyses to represent, different climatic conditions, trends in urban development and topographical characteristics. We develop and apply a combined remote-sensing and flood-modelling approach to simulate the extent of pluvial flooding for a range of extreme precipitation events for historical (1984) and present-day (2014) urban land cover and for two climate-change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Changes in urban land cover are estimated using Landsat satellite imagery for the period 1984–2014. We combine the remote-sensing analyses with regionally downscaled estimates of precipitation extremes of current and expected future climate to enable 2D overland flow simulations and flood-hazard assessments. The individual and combined impacts of urban development and climate change are quantified by examining the variations in flooding between the different simulations along with the corresponding uncertainties. For all four cities, we find an increase in flood exposure corresponding to an observed absolute growth in impervious surfaces of 7–12 % during the past thirty years of urban development. Similarly, we find that climate change increases exposure to pluvial flooding under both the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The relative importance of urban development and climate change on flood exposure varies considerably between the cities. For Odense, the impact of urban development is comparable to that of climate change under an RCP 8.5 scenario (2081–2100), while for Vienna and Strasbourg it is comparable to the impacts of an RCP 4.5 scenario. For Nice, climate change dominates urban development as the primary driver of changes in exposure to flooding. The variation between geographical locations is caused by differences in soil infiltration properties, historical trends in urban development and the projected regional impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation.

scholarly journals Anticipating urbanization-led land cover change and its impact on local climate using time series model: a study on Dhaka city

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ripan Debnath
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Dhaka City ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Urban Land Cover

Urbanization-led changes in natural landscape often result in environmental degradation and subsequently contribute to local climate variability. Therefore, apart from global climate change, Dhaka city’s ongoing rapid urban growth may result in altering future local climate patterns significantly. This study explores transition relationships between urbanization (population), land cover, and climate (temperature) of Dhaka city beginning in 1975 through to forecast scenarios up to 2035. Satellite image, geographic, demographic, and climatic data were analyzed. Change in core urban land cover (area) was regarded as a function of population growth and was modeled using linear regression technique. The study developed and validated a time series (ARIMA) model for predicting mean maximum temperature change where (forecasted) land cover scenarios were regressors. Throughout the studied period, the city exhibited an increasing urbanization trend that indicated persistent growth of core urban land cover in future. As a result, the city’s mean maximum temperature was found likely to increase by around 1.5-degree Celsius during 2016–2035 on average from that of observed 1996–2015 period. It is expected that findings of this study may help in recognizing urbanization-led climate change easily, which is crucial to effective climate change management actions and urban planning.

scholarly journals Measuring Urban Land Cover Influence on Air Temperature through Multiple Geo-Data—The Case of Milan, Italy

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (11) ◽  
pp. 421 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Oxoli ◽  
Giulia Ronchetti ◽  
Marco Minghini ◽  
Monia Molinari ◽  
Maryam Lotfian ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Satellite Imagery ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Urban Land ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Landsat 8 ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Urban Land Cover

Climate issues are nowadays one of the most pressing societal challenges, with cities being identified among the landmarks for climate change. This study investigates the effect of urban land cover composition on a relevant climate-related variable, i.e., the air temperature. The analysis exploits different big geo-data sources, namely high-resolution satellite imagery and in-situ air temperature observations, using the city of Milan (Northern Italy) as a case study. Satellite imagery from the Landsat 8, Sentinel-2, and RapidEye missions are used to derive Local Climate Zone (LCZ) maps depicting land cover compositions across the study area. Correlation tests are run to investigate and measure the influence of land cover composition on air temperature. Results show an underlying connection between the two variables by detecting an average temperature offset of about 1.5 ∘ C between heavily urbanized and vegetated urban areas. The approach looks promising in investigating urban climate at a local scale and explaining effects through maps and exploratory graphs, which are valuable tools for urban planners to implement climate change mitigation strategies. The availability of worldwide coverage datasets, as well as the exclusive use of Free and Open Source Software (FOSS), provide the analysis with a potential to be empowered, replicated, and improved.

scholarly journals Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhili Wang ◽  
Lei Lin ◽  
Yangyang Xu ◽  
Huizheng Che ◽  
Xiaoye Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Wide Range

AbstractAnthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing has been shown as a critical driver of climate change over Asia since the mid-20th century. Here we show that almost all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models fail to capture the observed dipole pattern of aerosol optical depth (AOD) trends over Asia during 2006–2014, last decade of CMIP6 historical simulation, due to an opposite trend over eastern China compared with observations. The incorrect AOD trend over China is attributed to problematic AA emissions adopted by CMIP6. There are obvious differences in simulated regional aerosol radiative forcing and temperature responses over Asia when using two different emissions inventories (one adopted by CMIP6; the other from Peking university, a more trustworthy inventory) to driving a global aerosol-climate model separately. We further show that some widely adopted CMIP6 pathways (after 2015) also significantly underestimate the more recent decline in AA emissions over China. These flaws may bring about errors to the CMIP6-based regional climate attribution over Asia for the last two decades and projection for the next few decades, previously anticipated to inform a wide range of impact analysis.

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