scholarly journals Effect of Multicollinearity on the Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Annual Maximum Rainfall Events

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 905 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoo ◽  
Cho
Keyword(s):  
Frequency Analysis ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Total Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Duration ◽  
Rainfall Depth ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Annual Maximum Rainfall

A rainfall event, simplified by a rectangular pulse, is defined by three components: the rainfall duration, the total rainfall depth, and mean rainfall intensity. However, as the mean rainfall intensity can be calculated by the total rainfall depth divided by the rainfall duration, any two components can fully define the rainfall event (i.e., one component must be redundant). The frequency analysis of a rainfall event also considers just two components selected rather arbitrarily out of these three components. However, this study argues that the two components should be selected properly or the result of frequency analysis can be significantly biased. This study fully discusses this selection problem with the annual maximum rainfall events from Seoul, Korea. In fact, this issue is closely related with the multicollinearity in the multivariate regression analysis, which indicates that as interdependency among variables grows the variance of the regression coefficient also increases to result in the low quality of resulting estimate. The findings of this study are summarized as follows: (1) The results of frequency analysis are totally different according to the selected two variables out of three. (2) Among three results, the result considering the total rainfall depth and the mean rainfall intensity is found to be the most reasonable. (3) This result is fully supported by the multicollinearity issue among the correlated variables. The rainfall duration should be excluded in the frequency analysis of a rainfall event as its variance inflation factor is very high.

scholarly journals Individual Rainfall Change Based on Observed Hourly Precipitation Records on the Chinese Loess Plateau from 1983 to 2012

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 2268
Author(s):  
Wenbin Ding ◽  
Fei Wang ◽  
Kai Jin ◽  
Jianqiao Han ◽  
Qiang Yu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Loess Plateau ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Rainfall Amount ◽  
The Loess Plateau ◽  
Total Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Duration ◽  
Rainfall Frequency ◽  
Annual Total

The magnitude and spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation are the main drivers of hydrologic and agricultural processes in soil moisture, runoff generation, soil erosion, vegetation growth and agriculture activities on the Loess Plateau (LP). This study detects the spatiotemporal variations of individual rainfall events during a rainy season (RS) from May to September based on the hourly precipitation data measured at 87 stations on the LP from 1983 to 2012. The incidence and contribution rates were calculated for all classes of rainfall duration and intensity to identify the dominant contribution to the rainfall amount and frequency variations. The trend rates of regional mean annual total rainfall amount (ATR) and annual mean rainfall intensity (ARI) were 0.43 mm/year and 0.002 mm/h/year in the RS for 1983–2012, respectively. However, the regional mean annual total rainfall frequency (ARF) and rainfall events (ATE) were −0.27 h/year and −0.11 times/year, respectively. In terms of spatial patterns, an increase in ATR appeared in most areas except for the southwest, while the ARI increased throughout the study region, with particularly higher values in the northwest and southeast. Areas of decreasing ARF occurred mainly in the northwest and central south of the LP, while ATE was found in most areas except for the northeast. Short-duration (≤6 h) and light rainfall events occurred mostly on the LP, accounting for 69.89% and 72.48% of total rainfall events, respectively. Long-duration (≥7 h) and moderate rainfall events contributed to the total rainfall amount by 70.64% and 66.73% of the total rainfall amount, respectively. Rainfall frequency contributed the most to the variations of rainfall amount for light and moderate rainfall events, while rainfall intensity played an important role in heavy rainfall and rainstorms. The variation in rainfall frequency for moderate rainfall, heavy rainfall, and rainstorms is mainly affected by rainfall duration, while rainfall event was identified as a critical factor for light rainfall. The characteristics in rainfall variations on the Loess Plateau revealed in this study can provide useful information for sustainable water resources management and plans.

scholarly journals DETERMINANT PLUVIOMETRIC CHARACTERISTICS OF SEDIMENT TRANSPORT IN A CATCHMENT WITH THINNED VEGETATION IN THE TROPICAL SEMIARID

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 785-793
Author(s):  
MARCOS MAKEISON MOREIRA DE SOUSA ◽  
HELBA ARAÚJO DE QUEIROZ PALÁCIO ◽  
EUNICE MAIA DE ANDRADE ◽  
JACQUES CARVALHO RIBEIRO FILHO ◽  
MATHEUS MAGALHÃES SILVA MOURA
Keyword(s):  
Sediment Transport ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Semiarid Region ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Loss Mitigation ◽  
Rainfall Duration ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Rainfall Depth ◽  
Runoff Depth

ABSTRACT Knowing determinant factors of erosive process is essential to adopt soil conservationist and loss-mitigation measures. Therefore, the objective of this work was to assess the correlation between rainfall characteristics and sediment transport in the Semiarid region of Brazil. The study was conducted at the Iguatu Experimental Basin in the state of Ceará, Brazil, in a watershed with area of 1.15 ha. The vegetation was thinned by removal of plants with diameters below 10 cm, and the area remained with an arboreous cover of 60%. The following variables were evaluated from 2012 to 2016: rainfall depth (mm), rainfall duration (hours), maximum rainfall intensity in 5, 10, 15, 20, 30, 45, and 60 minutes (mm h-1), mean rainfall intensity (mm h-1), rainfall depth in the previous 5 days (mm), runoff depth (mm), and transported sediment (kg ha-1). The records showed 158 rainfall events, 27 with surface runoff and 24 with sediment transport. The correlations were investigated by multivariate analysis of principal components (PC). The model explained 84% of total variance with four PC-PC1, PC2, PC3, and PC4 were formed, respectively, for disaggregating power of rainfall on soil particles, represented by the rainfall intensities; soil water content; runoff depth and sediment transport; and rainfall duration and interval between rainfalls. The highest factorial weight was found for the maximum intensity in 20 minutes, indicating the need for further hydrological studies focused on this variable at basin scale in areas of the Semiarid region of Brazil subjected to thinning of the vegetation.

scholarly journals Multiscale Evaluation of Extreme Rainfall Event Predictions Using Severity Diagrams

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 174-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Ceresetti ◽  
Sandrine Anquetin ◽  
Gilles Molinié ◽  
Etienne Leblois ◽  
Jean-Dominique Creutin
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Space Time ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Event ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Depth ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events

Abstract Observations and simulations of rainfall events are usually compared by analyzing (i) the total rainfall depth produced by the event and (ii) the location of the rainfall maximum. A different approach is proposed here that compares the mesoscale simulated rainfall fields with the ground rainfall observations within the multiscale framework of maximum intensity diagrams and severity diagrams. While the first simply displays the maximum rainfall intensity of an event at a number of scales, the second gives the frequency of occurrence of the maximum rainfall intensities as a function of the spatial and temporal aggregation scales, highlighting the space–time scales of the event severity. For use in a region featuring complex relief, severity diagrams have been generalized to incorporate the regional behavior of heavy rainfall events. To assess simulation outputs from a meteorological mesoscale model, three major storms that have occurred in the last decade over a mountainous Mediterranean region of southern France are analyzed. The severity diagrams detect the critical space–time scales of the rainfall events for comparison with those predicted by the simulation. This validation approach is adapted to evaluate the ability of the mesoscale model to predict various types of storms with different regional climatologies.

scholarly journals Comparison of annual maximum rainfall events of modern rain gauge data (1961–2010) and Chukwooki data (1777–1910) in Seoul, Korea

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 58-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chulsang Yoo ◽  
Minkyu Park ◽  
Hyeon Jun Kim ◽  
Changhyun Jun
Keyword(s):  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Rainfall Event ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Bivariate Exponential Distribution ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Event Series ◽  
Annual Maximum Rainfall

Abstract In this study, the annual maximum rainfall event series were constructed and compared for both the modern flip-bucket type rainfall data, collected since 1961 (the modern data), and the old Chukwooki rainfall data, collected from 1777 to 1910 (the Chukwooki data). First, independent rainfall events were derived, by applying the same rainfall threshold of 2 mm and data collection time interval of 2 hours, to both the Chukwooki and the modern data. Annual maximum rainfall event series were then constructed, by applying Freund's bivariate exponential distribution annually. Finally, bivariate frequency analysis was done for the annual maximum rainfall event series constructed, by applying the bivariate logistic model to evaluate and quantify their characteristics. The results are in summary: (1) characteristics of the Chukwooki rainfall events and modern rainfall events are very similar to each other; (2) the annual maximum rainfall events of modern data are slightly larger than those of the Chukwooki data. The total rainfall depth per rainfall event for any given return period is thus estimated to be a little higher for the modern data than that of the Chukwooki data. However, based on the findings in this study, it could not be concluded that the rainfall characteristics have significantly changed during the last 200 years.

scholarly journals Prediction of factors affecting activation of soil erosion by mathematical modeling at pedon scale under laboratory conditions

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saeed Shojaei ◽  
Zahra Kalantari ◽  
Jesús Rodrigo-Comino
Keyword(s):  
Soil Loss ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Quadratic Function ◽  
Interactive Effects ◽  
Soil Protection ◽  
Single Factor ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Duration ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Runoff Production

AbstractSoil degradation due to erosion is a significant worldwide problem at different spatial (from pedon to watershed) and temporal scales. All stages and factors in the erosion process must be detected and evaluated to reduce this environmental issue and protect existing fertile soils and natural ecosystems. Laboratory studies using rainfall simulators allow single factors and interactive effects to be investigated under controlled conditions during extreme rainfall events. In this study, three main factors (rainfall intensity, inclination, and rainfall duration) were assessed to obtain empirical data for modeling water erosion during single rainfall events. Each factor was divided into three levels (− 1, 0, + 1), which were applied in different combinations using a rainfall simulator on beds (6 × 1 m) filled with soil from a study plot located in the arid Sistan region, Iran. The rainfall duration levels tested were 3, 5, and 7 min, the rainfall intensity levels were 30, 60, and 90 mm/h, and the inclination levels were 5, 15, and 25%. The results showed that the highest rainfall intensity tested (90 mm/h) for the longest duration (7 min) caused the highest runoff (62 mm3/s) and soil loss (1580 g/m2/h). Based on the empirical results, a quadratic function was the best mathematical model (R2 = 0.90) for predicting runoff (Q) and soil loss. Single-factor analysis revealed that rainfall intensity was more influential for runoff production than changes in time and inclination, while rainfall duration was the most influential single factor for soil loss. Modeling and three-dimensional depictions of the data revealed that sediment production was high and runoff production lower at the beginning of the experiment, but this trend was reversed over time as the soil became saturated. These results indicate that avoiding the initial stage of erosion is critical, so all soil protection measures should be taken to reduce the impact at this stage. The final stages of erosion appeared too complicated to be modeled, because different factors showed differing effects on erosion.

scholarly journals Heavy rainfall equations for Santa Catarina, Brazil

2011 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 2127-2134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Álvaro José Back ◽  
Alan Henn ◽  
José Luiz Rocha Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
Coastal Region ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Santa Catarina ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Intensity Duration Frequency ◽  
Annual Maximum Rainfall

Knowledge of intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) relationships of rainfall events is extremely important to determine the dimensions of surface drainage structures and soil erosion control. The purpose of this study was to obtain IDF equations of 13 rain gauge stations in the state of Santa Catarina in Brazil: Chapecó, Urussanga, Campos Novos, Florianópolis, Lages, Caçador, Itajaí, Itá, Ponte Serrada, Porto União, Videira, Laguna and São Joaquim. The daily rainfall data charts of each station were digitized and then the annual maximum rainfall series were determined for durations ranging from 5 to 1440 min. Based on these, with the Gumbel-Chow distribution, the maximum rainfall was estimated for durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h, considering return periods of 2, 5, 10, 20, 25, 50, and 100 years,. Data agreement with the Gumbel-Chow model was verified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, at 5 % significance level. For each rain gauge station, two IDF equations of rainfall events were adjusted, one for durations from 5 to 120 min and the other from 120 to 1440 min. The results show a high variability in maximum intensity of rainfall events among the studied stations. Highest values of coefficients of variation in the annual maximum series of rainfall were observed for durations of over 600 min at the stations of the coastal region of Santa Catarina.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Rainfall Temporal Distribution Models with Annual Maximum Rainfall Events in Seoul, Korea

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1468 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wooyoung Na ◽  
Chulsang Yoo
Keyword(s):  
Root Mean Square Error ◽  
Peak Flow ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Block Method ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Pattern Correlation ◽  
Annual Maximum Rainfall

This study evaluated five models of rainfall temporal distribution (i.e., the Yen and Chow model, Mononobe model, alternating block method, Huff model, and Keifer and Chu model), with the annual maximum rainfall events selected from Seoul, Korea, from 1961 to 2016. Three different evaluation measures were considered: the absolute difference between the rainfall peaks of the model and the observed, the root mean square error, and the pattern correlation coefficient. Also, sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine whether the model, or the randomness of the rainfall temporal distribution, had the dominant effect on the runoff peak flow. As a result, the Keifer and Chu model was found to produce the most similar rainfall peak to the observed, the root mean square error was smaller for the Yen and Chow model and the alternating block method, and the pattern correlation was larger for the alternating block method. Overall, the best model to approximate the annual maximum rainfall events observed in Seoul, Korea, was found to be the alternating block method. Finally, the sensitivity of the runoff peak flow to the model of rainfall temporal distribution was found to be much higher than that to the randomness of the rainfall temporal distribution. In particular, in small basins with a high curve number (CN) value, the sensitivity of the runoff peak flow to the randomness of the rainfall temporal distribution was found to be insignificant.

scholarly journals How Is the Intensity of Rainfall Events Best Characterised? A Brief Critical Review and Proposed New Rainfall Intensity Index for Application in the Study of Landsurface Processes

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 929 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Dunkerley
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Clock Period ◽  
Event Duration ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Rainfall Characteristics ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Intensity Index ◽  
Rainfall Depth ◽  
Minute Interval ◽  
Event Based

In many studies of landsurface processes, the intensity of rainfall events is expressed with clock-period indexes such as I30, the wettest 30-minute interval within a rainfall event. Problematically, the value of I30 cannot be estimated for rainfall events shorter than 30 min, excluding many intense convective storms. Further, it represents a diminishing proportion of increasingly long rainfall events, declining to <2% of the duration of a 30-hour event but representing 25% of the duration of a two-hour event. Here, a new index termed EDf5 is proposed: It is the rainfall depth in the wettest 5% of the event duration. This can be derived for events of any duration. Exploratory determinations of EDf5 are presented for two Australian locations with contrasting rainfall climatologies—one arid and one wet tropical. The I30 index was similar at both sites (7.7 and 7.9 mm h−1) and was unable to differentiate between them. In contrast, EDf5 at the arid site was 7.4 mm h−1, whilst at the wet tropical site, it was 3.8 mm h−1. Thus, the EDf5 index indicated a greater concentration of rain at the arid site where convective storms occurred (i.e., the intensity sustained for 5% of event duration at that site is higher). The EDf5 index can be applied to short, intense events that can readily be included in the analysis of event-based rainfall intensity. I30 therefore appears to offer less discriminatory power and consequently may be of less value in the investigation of rainfall characteristics that drive many important landsurface processes.

scholarly journals Assessing methods for the estimation of response times of stream discharge: the role of rainfall duration

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaime G. Cuevas ◽  
José L. Arumí ◽  
José Dörner
Keyword(s):  
Response Times ◽  
Stream Velocity ◽  
Middle Point ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Stream Discharge ◽  
Rainfall Duration ◽  
Watershed Dynamics ◽  
The Mean

Abstract Lagtimes and times of concentration are frequently determined parameters in hydrological design and greatly aid in understanding natural watershed dynamics. In unmonitored catchments, they are usually calculated using empirical or semiempirical equations developed in other studies, without critically considering where those equations were obtained and what basic assumptions they entailed. In this study, we determined the lagtimes (LT) between the middle point of rainfall events and the discharge peaks in a watershed characterized by volcanic soils and swamp forests in southern Chile. Our results were compared with calculations from 24 equations found in the literature. The mean LT for 100 episodes was 20 hours (ranging between 0.6–58.5 hours). Most formulae that only included physiographic predictors severely underestimated the mean LT, while those including the rainfall intensity or stream velocity showed better agreement with the average value. The duration of the rainfall events related significantly and positively with LTs. Thus, we accounted for varying LTs within the same watershed by including the rainfall duration in the equations that showed the best results, consequently improving our predictions. Izzard and velocity methods are recommended, and we suggest that lagtimes and times of concentration must be locally determined with hyetograph-hydrograph analyses, in addition to explicitly considering precipitation patterns.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document