scholarly journals Hydropower Potential in the Alps under Climate Change Scenarios. The Chavonne Plant, Val D’Aosta

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2011
Author(s):  
Tommaso Duratorre ◽  
Giovanni Bombelli ◽  
Giovanni Menduni ◽  
Daniele Bocchiola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Snow Melt ◽  
Half Century ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
Hydropower Production ◽  
The Alps

Present and prospective climate change will likely affect the hydrological cycle in sensitive areas, such as the Alps, thus impacting water-based activities. A most representative example is hydropower production, i.e., exploitation of water to produce energy. In the Italian Alps hydropower is strictly dependent upon water from snow and ice melt, and both are decreasing in response to global warming. Here, we study the effects of potential climate change scenarios at 2100 upon hydropower production from the Chavonne plant, in Valle d’Aosta region of Italy, a run-of-the-river (ROR) plant taking water from two high altitude glacierized catchments of Val di Cogne, and Valsavarenche. We use Poli-Hydro, a state-of-the-art hydrological model to mimic the hydrological budget of the area, including ice and snow melt share. Projections of the hydrological budget were built until 2100 by means of selected climate change scenarios, under proper downscaling. We used runs of three General Circulation Models (GCMs), EC-Earth, CCSM4, and ECHAM6.0 under three Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 from AR5 of IPCC, and of their updated version under four Shared Socio-Economic Pathways SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, SSP3 7.0, and SSP5 8.5 from AR6. We then assessed hydropower production changes against a recent control run CR period (2005–2015). Mean annual flow is estimated at 14.33 m3 s−1 during CR, with ice melt contribution ca. 2%, and snow melt contribution ca. 44%. Ice cover in 2005 was estimated as 19.2 km2, reaching in 2015, 9.93 km2. Mean hydropower production was estimated at 153.72 GWh during the CR. Temperature would largely increase throughout the century (+0.93 °C on average at the half century, +2.45 °C at the end of the century). The ice covered area would be largely depleted (ca. −86%, −94% respectively), with reduced contribution of ice melt (0.23%, <0.1%, respectively) and snow melt (ca. 37%, 33%, respectively). Precipitation would show uncertain patterns, and hence incoming discharge at the plant would erratically vary (−29% to +24% half century, −27% to +59% end of century). Hydropower production displays a large dependence upon monthly discharge patterns, with mostly positive variations (+2.90% on average at half century, +6.95% on average at end of century), with its change driven by exceedance of plant’s capacity.

scholarly journals Hydropower from the Alpine Cryosphere in the Era of Climate Change: The Case of the Sabbione Storage Plant in Italy

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Stucchi ◽  
Giovanni Bombelli ◽  
Alberto Bianchi ◽  
Daniele Bocchiola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cold Water ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Half Century ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
The Future ◽  
Hydropower Production ◽  
The Alps

Greenhouse gas reduction policies will have to rely as much as possible upon renewable, clean energy sources. Hydropower is a very good candidate, since it is the only renewable energy source whose production can be adapted to demand, and still has a large exploitation margin, especially in developing countries. However, in Europe the contribution of hydropower from the cold water in the mountain areas is at stake under rapid cryospheric down wasting under global warming. Italian Alps are no exception, with a large share of hydropower depending upon cryospheric water. We study here climate change impact on the iconic Sabbione (Hosandorn) glacier, in the Piemonte region of Italy, and the homonymous reservoir, which collects water from ice melt. Sabbione storage plant has operated since 1953 and it was, until recently, the highest altitude dam of Europe at 2460 m asl, and the former second largest dam of the Alps with 44 Mm3. We use two models, namely Poly-Hydro and Poly-Power, to assess (i) present hydrological budget and components (i.e., ice/snow melt, rainfall), and (ii) hydropower production under optimal reservoirs’ management, respectively. We then project forward hydrological cycle including Sabbione glacier’s fate, under properly downscaled climate change scenarios (three General Circulation Models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, nine scenarios overall) from IPCC until 2100, and we assess future potential for hydropower production under the reservoir’s re-operation. Mean annual discharge during 2000–2017 is estimated at 0.90 m3 s−1, with ice melt contribution of ca. 11.5%, and ice cover as measured by remote sensing changing from 4.23 km2 in 2000 to 2.94 km2 in 2017 (−30%). Mean hydropower production during 2005–2017 is estimated as 46.6 GWh. At the end of the century ice covered area would be largely depleted (0–0.37 km2), and ice melt contribution would drop largely over the century (0%–10%, 5% on average at half century, and null in practice at the end of century). Therefore, decreased ice cover, and uncertain patterns of changing precipitation, would combine to modify the future stream fluxes (−22% to −3%, −10% on average at half century, and −28% to 1%, average −13%, at the end of century). Power production, driven by seasonal demand and water availability, would change (decrease) in the future (−27% to −8%, −15% on average at half century, and −32% to −5%, −16% at the end of century). Our results demonstrate potential for decrease of cold water in this area, paradigmatic of the present state of hydropower in the Alps, and subsequent considerable hydropower losses under climate change, and claim for adaptation measures therein.

scholarly journals Impact of Prospective Climate Change Scenarios upon Hydropower Potential of Ethiopia in GERD and GIBE Dams

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 716
Author(s):  
Giovanni Martino Bombelli ◽  
Stefano Tomiet ◽  
Alberto Bianchi ◽  
Daniele Bocchiola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Nile River ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Half Century ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
Filling Time ◽  
Hydropower Production

Ethiopia is growing fast, and the country has a dire need of energy. To avoid environmental damages, however, Ethiopia is looking for green energy polices, including hydropower exploitation, with large water availability (i.e., the Blue Nile, the greatest tributary of Nile river). Besides other dams on the Omo river, the GIBE family, Ethiopia is now building the largest hydropower plant of Africa, the GERD (Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam), on the Blue Nile river, leading to tensions between Ethiopia, and Egypt, due to potentially conflictive water management. In addition, present and prospective climate change may affect reservoirs’ operation, and this thereby is relevant for downstream water users, population, and environment. Here, we evaluated water management for the GERD, and GIBE III dams, under present, and future hydrological conditions until 2100. We used two models, namely, Poli-Hydro and Poli-Power, to describe (i) hydrological budget, and flow routing and (ii) optimal/maximum hydropower production from the two dams, under unconstrained (i.e., no release downstream besides MIF) and constrained (i.e., with fair release downstream) simulation. We then used climate change scenarios from the reports CMIP5/6 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) until 2100, to assess future hydropower production. Our results demonstrate that the filling phase of the GERD, particularly critical, have optimal filling time of 5 years or so. Stream flows at GERD could be greater than the present ones (control run CR) at half century (2050–2059), but there could be large decrease at the end of century (2090–2099). Energy production at half century may increase, and then decrease until the end of century. In GIBE III discharges would increase both at half century, and at the end of century, and so would energy production. Constrained, and unconstrained simulation provide in practice similar results, suggesting potential for shared water management in both plants.

scholarly journals Potential impacts of warming climate on future water resources and hydropower production in a glacierized catchment in Western Himalaya

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tejal Shirsat ◽  
Anil Kulkarni ◽  
Andrea Momblanch ◽  
Surjeet Singh Randhawa ◽  
Ian Holman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Western Himalaya ◽  
Himalayan Region ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Small Hydropower ◽  
Small Catchment ◽  
Glacier Melt ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
Hydropower Production

&lt;p&gt;The Himalayan region has a large hydropower potential due to the natural topographic gradient and abundance of water resource from rainfall, snow and glacier melt. However, future water availability in the Himalayan streams is likely to be altered due to climatic conditions, which necessitates an assessment of hydropower investments, especially for small run-of-the-river projects. Here, we study the future glacio-hydrological changes in a small catchment located in the Upper Beas basin, in Western Himalaya in India, and their impacts on the operation of two small hydropower projects with contrasting hydrological requirements. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model is used to integrate and analyse changes in cryosphere, hydrology and hydropower production in the middle and end of the 21st century using multiple climate models representing different types of future scenarios under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. In response to projected climate, the snow and glacier melt contribution to annual discharge declines from 34% in the baseline to 16.5% (RCP4.5) and 13.8% (RCP8.5) by the end of the century. The total streamflow shows broad uncertainty in magnitude and direction of change but shows a noticeable seasonal shift in the hydrological cycle. Of the two hydropower projects, the plant that utilizes high flows with low hydraulic head shows a behaviour similar to streamflow projections resulting in 13% (RCP45) and 19.7% (RCP85) increase in annual power generation by the end of the century arising from the increased hydropower potential of low flows and the rise in precipitation. The second power project that relies on lesser flows with high head maintains its designed power production consistently throughout the century in all the climate change scenarios. The differing sensitivity of the power projects to climate change is influenced by future changes in the runoff as well as by their design. Thus, this study provides insights into the climate-adaptive development and planning of small hydropower projects in the Himalayan region.&lt;/p&gt;

Hydropower in the Era of Climate Change. The Case of the Sabbione Storage Plant in Italy

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Stucchi ◽  
Giovanni Martino Bombelli ◽  
Daniele Bocchiola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Cold Water ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Ice Cover ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Half Century ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
The Future ◽  
Hydropower Production

&lt;p&gt;Hydropower, between renewable energy sources, is probably the best candidate for reducing greenhouse emission, since it is the only renewable energy source whose production can be adapted to demand, and still has a large exploitation margin, especially in developing countries. However, in Europe the contribution of hydropower from the cold water in the mountain areas is at stake under rapid cryospheric down wasting under global warming. Italian Alps are no exception, with a large share of hydropower depending upon cryospheric water. We study here climate change impact on the iconic Sabbione (Hosandorn) glacier, in the Piemonte region of Italy, and the homonymous reservoir, which collects water from ice melt. Sabbione storage plant has operated since 1953 and it was, until recently, the highest altitude dam of Europe at 2460 m asl. Using two models, namely Poly-Hydro and Poly-Power, we assessed present hydrological budget divided by components (i.e., ice/snow melt, rainfall), and hydropower production under optimal reservoirs&amp;#8217; management, respectively. We then project forward hydrological cycle under properly downscaled climate change scenarios (three General Circulation Models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, nine scenarios overall) from IPCC until 2100, and we assess glacier fate and consequences for hydropower production. Mean annual discharge during 2000&amp;#8211;2017 is estimated at 0.90 m3 s&amp;#8722;1, with ice melt contribution of ca. 11.5%, and ice cover as measured by remote sensing changing from 4.23 km2 in 2000 to 2.94 km2 in 2017 (&amp;#8722;30%). Mean hydropower production during 2005&amp;#8211;2017 is estimated as 46.6 GWh. At the end of the century ice covered area would be largely depleted (0&amp;#8211;0.37 km2), and ice melt contribution would drop largely over the century (-10% to 0%, 5% on average at half century, and null in practice at the end of century). Therefore, decreased ice cover, and uncertain patterns of changing precipitation, would combine to modify the future stream fluxes (&amp;#8722;22% to &amp;#8722;3%, &amp;#8722;10% on average at half century, and &amp;#8722;28% to 1%, average &amp;#8722;13%, at the end of century). Power production, driven by seasonal demand and water availability, would change (decrease) in the future (&amp;#8722;27% to &amp;#8722;8%, &amp;#8722;15% on average at half century, and &amp;#8722;32% to &amp;#8722;5%, &amp;#8722;16% at the end of century). Our results demonstrate potential for decrease of cold water in this area, paradigmatic of the present state of hydropower in the Alps, and subsequent considerable hydropower losses under climate change, and claim for adaptation measures therein.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1769-1785 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Groppelli ◽  
A. Soncini ◽  
D. Bocchiola ◽  
R. Rosso
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Precipitation Patterns ◽  
Alpine Watershed ◽  
Flow Variables

Abstract. We investigate future (2045–2054) hydrological cycle of the snow fed Oglio (≈1800 km2) Alpine watershed in Northern Italy. A Stochastic Space Random Cascade (SSRC) approach is used to downscale future precipitation from three general circulation models, GCMs (PCM, CCSM3, and HadCM3) available within the IPCC's data base and chosen for this purpose based upon previous studies. We then downscale temperature output from the GCMs to obtain temperature fields for the area. We also consider a projected scenario based upon trends locally observed in former studies, LOC scenario. Then, we feed the downscaled fields to a minimal hydrological model to build future hydrological scenarios. We provide projected flow duration curves and selected flow descriptors, giving indication of expected modified (against control run for 1990–1999) regime of low flows and droughts and flood hazard, and thus evaluate modified peak floods regime through indexed flood. We then assess the degree of uncertainty, or spread, of the projected water resources scenarios by feeding the hydrological model with ensembles projections consistent with our deterministic (GCMs + LOC) scenarios, and we evaluate the significance of the projected flow variables against those observed in the control run. The climate scenarios from the adopted GCMs differ greatly from one another with respect to projected precipitation amount and temperature regimes, and so do the projected hydrological scenarios. A relatively good agreement is found upon prospective shrinkage and shorter duration of the seasonal snow cover due to increased temperature patterns, and upon prospective increase of hydrological losses, i.e. evapotranspiration, for the same reason. However, precipitation patterns are less consistent, because HadCM3 and PCM models project noticeably increased precipitation for 2045–2054, whereas CCSM3 provides decreased precipitation patterns therein. The LOC scenario instead displays unchanged precipitation. The ensemble simulations indicate that several projected flow variables under the considered scenarios are significantly different from their control run counterparts, and also that snow cover seems to significantly decrease in duration and depth. The proposed hydrological scenarios eventually provide a what-if analysis, giving a broad view of the possible expected impacts of climate change within the Italian Alps, necessary to trigger the discussion about future adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on hydropower potential of the Lagdo dam, Benue River Basin, Northern Cameroon

2021 ◽  
Vol 384 ◽  
pp. 337-342
Author(s):  
Rodric M. Nonki ◽  
André Lenouo ◽  
Clément Tchawoua ◽  
Christopher J. Lennard ◽  
Ernest Amoussou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Electricity Production ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
Northern Cameroon

Abstract. Nowadays, special attention is paid to hydroelectric production because it is an efficient, reliable, and renewable source of energy, especially in developing countries like Cameroon, where hydropower potential is the main source of electricity production. It also represents a useful tool to reduce the atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations caused by human activities. However, it is the most sensitive industry to global warming, mainly because climate change will directly affect the quality, quantity of water resources (streamflow and runoff), which are the important drivers of hydropower potential. This study examined the response of hydropower potential to climate change on the Lagdo dam located in the Benue River Basin, Northern Cameroon. Hydropower potential was computed based on streamflow simulated using HBV-Light hydrological model with dynamically downscaled temperature and precipitation from the regional climate model REMO. These data were obtained using the boundary conditions of two general circulation models (GCMs): the Europe-wide Consortium Earth System Model (EC-Earth) and the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) under three Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results suggest that, the combination of decreased precipitation and streamflow, increased PET will negatively impact the hydropower potential in the Lagdo dam under climate change scenarios, models and future periods.

scholarly journals Hydropower Potential of Run of River Schemes in the Himalayas under Climate Change: A Case Study in the Dudh Koshi Basin of Nepal

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2625
Author(s):  
Daniele Bocchiola ◽  
Mattia Manara ◽  
Riccardo Mereu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Energy Deficit ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
Hydropower Production ◽  
Run Of River

In spite of the very large hydropower potential given from the melting snow and ice of Himalayas, Nepal’s population has little hydropower production. The high use of fossil fuels and biomasses results in measurable air pollution, even in the mountain areas. Hydropower planning and implementation, in the face of the changing climate, is therefore paramount important. We focus here on Nepal, and particularly on the Dudh Koshi river basin, with a population of ca. 170,000 people, within an area with large potential for hydropower production. Our main objectives are to (i) preliminarily design a local hydropower grid based on a distributed run of river ROR scheme, and (ii) verify the resilience of the grid against modified hydrology under perspective climate change, until the end of the century. To do so, we set up and tune the Poli-Hydro semi-distributed glacio-hydrological model, mimicking the complex hydrology of the area. We then modify a state of the art algorithm to develop and exploit a heuristic, resource-demand based model, called Poli-ROR. We use Poli-ROR to assess the (optimal) distribution of a number of ROR hydropower stations along the river network, and the structure of the local mini-grids. We then use downscaled outputs from three general circulation models GCMs (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 8.5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC AR5, to assess the performance of the system under future modified hydrological conditions. We find that our proposed method is efficient in shaping ROR systems, with the target of the largest possible coverage (93%), and of the least price (0.068 € kWh−1 on average). We demonstrate also that under the projected hydrological regimes until 2100, worse conditions than now may occur, especially for plants with small drainage areas. Days with energy shortage may reach up to nf = 38 per year on average (against nf = 24 now), while the maximum daily energy deficit may reach as high as edef% = 40% (against edef% = 20% now). We demonstrate that our originally proposed method for ROR grid design may represent a major contribution towards the proper development of distributed hydropower production in the area. Our results may contribute to improve energy supply, and living conditions within the Dudh Koshi river. It is likely that our approach may be applied in Nepal generally. Impending climate change may require adaptation in time, including the use of other sources which are as clean as possible, to limit pollution. Our Poli-ROR method for grid optimization may be of use for water managers, and scientists with an interest in the design of optimal hydropower schemes in topographically complex catchments.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought over the Be River Basin, Viet Nam

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Truong Thao Sam ◽  
Pham Thi Loi ◽  
Bui Viet Hung ◽  
Van Thinh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In this paper, the responses of hydro-meteorological drought to changing climate in the Be River Basin located in Southern Vietnam are investigated. Climate change scenarios for the study area were statistically downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator tool, which incorporates climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) based on an ensemble of five general circulation models (Can-ESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was employed to simulate streamflow for the baseline time period and three consecutive future 20 year periods of 2030s (2021–2040), 2050s (2041–2060), and 2070s (2061–2080). Based on the simulation results, the Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Discharge Index were estimated to evaluate the features of hydro-meteorological droughts. The hydrological drought has 1-month lag time from the meteorological drought and the hydro-meteorological droughts have negative correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Under the climate changing impacts, the trends of drought severity will decrease in the future; while the trends of drought frequency will increase in the near future period (2030s), but decrease in the following future periods (2050 and 2070s). The findings of this study can provide useful information to the policy and decisionmakers for a better future planning and management of water resources in the study region.

scholarly journals Climatic suitability predictions for the cultivation of macadamia in Malawi using climate change scenarios.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Junior Zuza ◽  
Yoseph Negusse Araya ◽  
Kadmiel Maseyk ◽  
Shonil A Bhagwat ◽  
Kaue de Sousa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Food Sources ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Crop Species ◽  
Cascading Effects ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Model Approach

Climate change is altering suitable areas of crop species worldwide, with cascading effects on people and animals reliant upon those crop species as food sources. Macadamia is one of Malawi's most important and profitable crop species. Here, we used an ensemble model approach to determine the current distribution of macadamia producing areas across Malawi in relation to climate. For future distribution of suitable areas, we used the climate outputs of 17 general circulation models (GCM's) based on two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). We found that the precipitation of the driest month and isothermality were the climatic variables that strongly influenced macadamia's suitability in Malawi. These climatic requirements were fulfilled across many areas in Malawi under the current conditions. Future projections indicated that large parts of Malawi's macadamia growing regions will remain suitable for macadamia, amounting to 36,910 km2 (39.1%) and 33,511 km2 (35.5%) of land based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Of concern, suitable areas for macadamia production are predicted to shrink by −18% (17,015 km2) and −22% (20,414 km2) based on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, with much of the suitability shifting northwards. Although a net loss of area suitable for macadamia is predicted, some currently unsuitable areas will become suitable in the future. Notably, suitable areas will increase in Malawi's central and northern regions, while the southern region will lose most of its suitable areas. In conclusion, our study provides critical evidence that climate change will significantly affect the macadamia sub-sector in Malawi. Therefore area-specific adaptation strategies are required to build resilience.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document