scholarly journals Potential impacts of warming climate on future water resources and hydropower production in a glacierized catchment in Western Himalaya

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tejal Shirsat ◽  
Anil Kulkarni ◽  
Andrea Momblanch ◽  
Surjeet Singh Randhawa ◽  
Ian Holman
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Western Himalaya ◽  
Himalayan Region ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Small Hydropower ◽  
Small Catchment ◽  
Glacier Melt ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
Hydropower Production

<p>The Himalayan region has a large hydropower potential due to the natural topographic gradient and abundance of water resource from rainfall, snow and glacier melt. However, future water availability in the Himalayan streams is likely to be altered due to climatic conditions, which necessitates an assessment of hydropower investments, especially for small run-of-the-river projects. Here, we study the future glacio-hydrological changes in a small catchment located in the Upper Beas basin, in Western Himalaya in India, and their impacts on the operation of two small hydropower projects with contrasting hydrological requirements. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model is used to integrate and analyse changes in cryosphere, hydrology and hydropower production in the middle and end of the 21st century using multiple climate models representing different types of future scenarios under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. In response to projected climate, the snow and glacier melt contribution to annual discharge declines from 34% in the baseline to 16.5% (RCP4.5) and 13.8% (RCP8.5) by the end of the century. The total streamflow shows broad uncertainty in magnitude and direction of change but shows a noticeable seasonal shift in the hydrological cycle. Of the two hydropower projects, the plant that utilizes high flows with low hydraulic head shows a behaviour similar to streamflow projections resulting in 13% (RCP45) and 19.7% (RCP85) increase in annual power generation by the end of the century arising from the increased hydropower potential of low flows and the rise in precipitation. The second power project that relies on lesser flows with high head maintains its designed power production consistently throughout the century in all the climate change scenarios. The differing sensitivity of the power projects to climate change is influenced by future changes in the runoff as well as by their design. Thus, this study provides insights into the climate-adaptive development and planning of small hydropower projects in the Himalayan region.</p>

scholarly journals Hydropower Potential in the Alps under Climate Change Scenarios. The Chavonne Plant, Val D’Aosta

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 2011
Author(s):  
Tommaso Duratorre ◽  
Giovanni Bombelli ◽  
Giovanni Menduni ◽  
Daniele Bocchiola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Snow Melt ◽  
Half Century ◽  
Ice Melt ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
Hydropower Production ◽  
The Alps

Present and prospective climate change will likely affect the hydrological cycle in sensitive areas, such as the Alps, thus impacting water-based activities. A most representative example is hydropower production, i.e., exploitation of water to produce energy. In the Italian Alps hydropower is strictly dependent upon water from snow and ice melt, and both are decreasing in response to global warming. Here, we study the effects of potential climate change scenarios at 2100 upon hydropower production from the Chavonne plant, in Valle d’Aosta region of Italy, a run-of-the-river (ROR) plant taking water from two high altitude glacierized catchments of Val di Cogne, and Valsavarenche. We use Poli-Hydro, a state-of-the-art hydrological model to mimic the hydrological budget of the area, including ice and snow melt share. Projections of the hydrological budget were built until 2100 by means of selected climate change scenarios, under proper downscaling. We used runs of three General Circulation Models (GCMs), EC-Earth, CCSM4, and ECHAM6.0 under three Representative Concentration Pathways RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5 from AR5 of IPCC, and of their updated version under four Shared Socio-Economic Pathways SSP1 2.6, SSP2 4.5, SSP3 7.0, and SSP5 8.5 from AR6. We then assessed hydropower production changes against a recent control run CR period (2005–2015). Mean annual flow is estimated at 14.33 m3 s−1 during CR, with ice melt contribution ca. 2%, and snow melt contribution ca. 44%. Ice cover in 2005 was estimated as 19.2 km2, reaching in 2015, 9.93 km2. Mean hydropower production was estimated at 153.72 GWh during the CR. Temperature would largely increase throughout the century (+0.93 °C on average at the half century, +2.45 °C at the end of the century). The ice covered area would be largely depleted (ca. −86%, −94% respectively), with reduced contribution of ice melt (0.23%, <0.1%, respectively) and snow melt (ca. 37%, 33%, respectively). Precipitation would show uncertain patterns, and hence incoming discharge at the plant would erratically vary (−29% to +24% half century, −27% to +59% end of century). Hydropower production displays a large dependence upon monthly discharge patterns, with mostly positive variations (+2.90% on average at half century, +6.95% on average at end of century), with its change driven by exceedance of plant’s capacity.

The response of Bonis Catchment in Calabria –Southern Italy to different management options under climate change scenarios.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mouna Feki ◽  
Giovanni Ravazzani ◽  
Tommaso Caloiero ◽  
Gaetano Pellicone
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Italy ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Mountain Area ◽  
Small Catchment

&lt;p&gt;Forests ecosystems provide several ecosystem services among which the regulation of the hydrological cycle. These ecosystems are exposed to different forms of disturbances induced by human activities, management strategies, and climate change. The objective of INNOMED project, for the Italian case study, is to understand the response of forest to different silvicultural practices under climate change conditions. The study site is the the Bonis catchment located in the mountain area of Sila Greca (39&amp;#176;25&amp;#8217;15&amp;#8217;&amp;#8217;N, 16&amp;#176;12&amp;#8217;38&amp;#8217;&amp;#8217;W), in the Calabria region (southern Italy). This small catchment has a surface of 1.39 km&lt;sup&gt;2&lt;/sup&gt; and a mean elevation of 1131 m above sea level. Almost 93% of the total area is covered by forest stand, dominated by about 50-year-old Calabrian pine (Pinus laricio Poiret) forests. In order to simulate the response of the catchment to different climate and management scenarios, FEST-WB distributed hydrological model was used. Within the framework of this project, FEST-FOREST module has been implemented in order to consider vegetation dynamics interactions with the hydrological response of the watershed. Since 1986, the basin was monitored through the installation of different instruments. Rainfall was measured by three rain gauges (with a tipping bucket) together with temperature that were measured at three different meteorological stations. In May 2003, a tower for measurement of eddy fluxes was installed at an altitude of 1100 m a.s.l, on a 54 years old plantation of Laricio pine which allowed monitoring of other parameters. Runoff was measured at the outlet of the catchment using a gauging structure. These data were used for the calibration and validation of the model before being implemented for future scenarios simulations. The results of these simulations delivered the potential impacts and the vulnerability of the Bonis catchment to different scenarios. These outcomes provide for the stakeholders a scientifically based and solid information for a sustainable management of the catchment.&lt;/p&gt;

Present and future water security under socioeconomic and climate changes in the Vilcanota-Urubamba basin

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andres Goyburo ◽  
Pedro Rau ◽  
Waldo Lavado ◽  
Fabian Drenkhan ◽  
Wouter Buytaert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Water Demand ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Security ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Glacier Melt ◽  
Current Water ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;This research assesses present (2009-2016) and future (until 2100) levels of water security taking into consideration socioeconomic and climate change scenarios using the WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning) tool for semidistributed hydrological modeling. The study area covers the&amp;#160; Vilcanota-Urubamba basin in the southern Peruvian Andes and presents a complex water demand context as a glacier-fed system.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Current total water demand is estimated in 5.12E+9 m3/year and includes agriculture (6674.17 m3/year), domestic (7.79E+07m3/year), industrial (1.01E+06 m3/year) and energy (5.03e+9 m3/year) consumption. For assessing the current water supply, observed flow data is used to simulate and validate the model (also accounting for glacier melt contribution). The analysis of unmet water demand for the period 2016&amp;#8211;2100 was computed using the soil moisture scheme of the WEAP model, which simulates the hydrological cycle and generates future scenarios for water demand. Different scenarios were generated for external driving factors (population growth and increasing agriculture area) and the impact of climate change to evaluate their effect on the current water supply system.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;These results will allow for the first time to evaluate the impact of changes in glacier melt contributions on water security taking into account also changes in water demand.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This study also further explores the importance of incorporating science and policy within a broader study of water security. As a result, it is expected to deliver high spatial resolution water demand maps and adaptation strategies for stakeholders. This research is part of the RAHU project as a new multidisciplinary collaboration between UK and Peruvian scientists.&lt;/p&gt;

scholarly journals Impact of Prospective Climate Change Scenarios upon Hydropower Potential of Ethiopia in GERD and GIBE Dams

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 716
Author(s):  
Giovanni Martino Bombelli ◽  
Stefano Tomiet ◽  
Alberto Bianchi ◽  
Daniele Bocchiola
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Nile River ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Blue Nile ◽  
Half Century ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
Filling Time ◽  
Hydropower Production

Ethiopia is growing fast, and the country has a dire need of energy. To avoid environmental damages, however, Ethiopia is looking for green energy polices, including hydropower exploitation, with large water availability (i.e., the Blue Nile, the greatest tributary of Nile river). Besides other dams on the Omo river, the GIBE family, Ethiopia is now building the largest hydropower plant of Africa, the GERD (Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam), on the Blue Nile river, leading to tensions between Ethiopia, and Egypt, due to potentially conflictive water management. In addition, present and prospective climate change may affect reservoirs’ operation, and this thereby is relevant for downstream water users, population, and environment. Here, we evaluated water management for the GERD, and GIBE III dams, under present, and future hydrological conditions until 2100. We used two models, namely, Poli-Hydro and Poli-Power, to describe (i) hydrological budget, and flow routing and (ii) optimal/maximum hydropower production from the two dams, under unconstrained (i.e., no release downstream besides MIF) and constrained (i.e., with fair release downstream) simulation. We then used climate change scenarios from the reports CMIP5/6 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) until 2100, to assess future hydropower production. Our results demonstrate that the filling phase of the GERD, particularly critical, have optimal filling time of 5 years or so. Stream flows at GERD could be greater than the present ones (control run CR) at half century (2050–2059), but there could be large decrease at the end of century (2090–2099). Energy production at half century may increase, and then decrease until the end of century. In GIBE III discharges would increase both at half century, and at the end of century, and so would energy production. Constrained, and unconstrained simulation provide in practice similar results, suggesting potential for shared water management in both plants.

scholarly journals Evaluation of future hydrological cycle under climate change scenarios in a mesoscale Alpine watershed of Italy

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1769-1785 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Groppelli ◽  
A. Soncini ◽  
D. Bocchiola ◽  
R. Rosso
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Precipitation Patterns ◽  
Alpine Watershed ◽  
Flow Variables

Abstract. We investigate future (2045–2054) hydrological cycle of the snow fed Oglio (≈1800 km2) Alpine watershed in Northern Italy. A Stochastic Space Random Cascade (SSRC) approach is used to downscale future precipitation from three general circulation models, GCMs (PCM, CCSM3, and HadCM3) available within the IPCC's data base and chosen for this purpose based upon previous studies. We then downscale temperature output from the GCMs to obtain temperature fields for the area. We also consider a projected scenario based upon trends locally observed in former studies, LOC scenario. Then, we feed the downscaled fields to a minimal hydrological model to build future hydrological scenarios. We provide projected flow duration curves and selected flow descriptors, giving indication of expected modified (against control run for 1990–1999) regime of low flows and droughts and flood hazard, and thus evaluate modified peak floods regime through indexed flood. We then assess the degree of uncertainty, or spread, of the projected water resources scenarios by feeding the hydrological model with ensembles projections consistent with our deterministic (GCMs + LOC) scenarios, and we evaluate the significance of the projected flow variables against those observed in the control run. The climate scenarios from the adopted GCMs differ greatly from one another with respect to projected precipitation amount and temperature regimes, and so do the projected hydrological scenarios. A relatively good agreement is found upon prospective shrinkage and shorter duration of the seasonal snow cover due to increased temperature patterns, and upon prospective increase of hydrological losses, i.e. evapotranspiration, for the same reason. However, precipitation patterns are less consistent, because HadCM3 and PCM models project noticeably increased precipitation for 2045–2054, whereas CCSM3 provides decreased precipitation patterns therein. The LOC scenario instead displays unchanged precipitation. The ensemble simulations indicate that several projected flow variables under the considered scenarios are significantly different from their control run counterparts, and also that snow cover seems to significantly decrease in duration and depth. The proposed hydrological scenarios eventually provide a what-if analysis, giving a broad view of the possible expected impacts of climate change within the Italian Alps, necessary to trigger the discussion about future adaptation strategies.

scholarly journals Groundwater Nitrate Contamination Integrated Modeling for Climate and Water Resources Scenarios: The Case of Lake Karla Over-Exploited Aquifer

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pantelis Sidiropoulos ◽  
Georgios Tziatzios ◽  
Lampros Vasiliades ◽  
Nikitas Mylopoulos ◽  
Athanasios Loukas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Activity ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Modeling Tools

Groundwater quantity and quality degradation by agricultural practices is recorded as one of the most critical issues worldwide. This is explained by the fact that groundwater is an important component of the hydrological cycle, since it is a source of natural enrichment for rivers, lakes, and wetlands and constitutes the main source of potable water. The need of aquifers simulation, taking into account water resources components at watershed level, is imperative for the choice of appropriate restoration management practices. An integrated water resources modeling approach, using hydrological modeling tools, is presented for assessing the nitrate fate and transport on an over-exploited aquifer with intensive and extensive agricultural activity under various operational strategies and future climate change scenarios. The results indicate that climate change affects nitrates concentration in groundwater, which is likely to be increased due to the depletion of the groundwater table and the decrease of groundwater enrichment in the future water balance. Application of operational agricultural management practices with the construction and use of water storage infrastructure tend to compensate the groundwater resources degradation due to climate change impacts.

Impacts of the climate change on runoff and diffuse phosphorus load to Lake Balaton (Hungary)

2009 ◽  
Vol 59 (3) ◽  
pp. 417-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Á. Kovács ◽  
A. Clement
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Urban Runoff ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Phosphorus Concentration ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Lake Balaton ◽  
Phosphorus Load ◽  
The Impact

The paper outlines a multi-component assessment of the impacts of the climate change on runoff and total phosphorus loads to the large shallow Lake Balaton in Hungary. Present hydrological cycle of the lake catchment has been examined using the rainfall-runoff model WetSpa. Particular phosphorus concentration in runoff was estimated on the basis of the simulated streamflow using an empirical power equation. Dissolved phosphorus concentrations were determined as a function of landuse and soil type of the corresponding sub-catchment. The model was calibrated and validated against daily observations manually at monitoring sites of sixteen inflowing streams around the lake. Runoff stemming from shoreline urban developments was calculated by the urban runoff simulation model SWMM. Phosphorus concentrations in urban runoff were calculated by an empirical relationship derived from field measurements. The model was henceforward run for climate change scenario analysis. Present weather data were modified by the climate change scenarios imported from the results of the CLIME project. The results indicate that the impact of the climate change on runoff and phosphorus load appears in the change of the distribution within a time period rather than in the total volume. However, due to the high uncertainties in climate models, the presented calculations are possible assumptions rather than established statements.

scholarly journals ICDP workshop on scientific drilling of Nam Co on the Tibetan Plateau: 1 million years of paleoenvironmental history, geomicrobiology, tectonics and paleomagnetism derived from sediments of a high-altitude lake

2019 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 63-70
Author(s):  
Torsten Haberzettl ◽  
Gerhard Daut ◽  
Nora Schulze ◽  
Volkhard Spiess ◽  
Junbo Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Deep Biosphere ◽  
Nam Co ◽  
Societal Relevance

Abstract. The Tibetan Plateau is of peculiar societal relevance as it provides freshwater from the so-called “Water Tower of Asia” to a large portion of the Asian population. However, future climate change will affect the hydrological cycle in this area. To define parameters for future climate change scenarios it is necessary to improve the knowledge about thresholds, timing, pace and intensity of past climatic changes and associated environmental impacts. Sedimentary archives reaching far back in time and spanning several glacial–interglacial cycles such as Nam Co provide the unique possibility to extract such information. In order to explore the scientific opportunities that an ICDP drilling effort at Nam Co would provide, 40 scientists from 13 countries representing various scientific disciplines met in Beijing from 22 to 24 May 2018. Besides paleoclimatic investigations, opportunities for paleomagnetic, deep biosphere, tectonic and paleobiological studies were discussed. After having explored the technical and logistical challenges and the scientific opportunities all participants agreed on the great value and need to drill this extraordinary archive, which has a sediment thickness of more than 1 km, likely covering more than 1 Ma.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of the Forested Watershed That Drains to Lake Erken in Sweden: An Analysis Using SWAT+ and CMIP6 Scenarios

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 1803
Author(s):  
Inmaculada C. Jiménez-Navarro ◽  
Patricia Jimeno-Sáez ◽  
Adrián López-Ballesteros ◽  
Julio Pérez-Sánchez ◽  
Javier Senent-Aparicio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Water Discharge ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case

Precipitation and temperature around the world are expected to be altered by climate change. This will cause regional alterations to the hydrological cycle. For proper water management, anticipating these changes is necessary. In this study, the basin of Lake Erken (Sweden) was simulated with the recently released software SWAT+ to study such alterations in a short (2026–2050), medium (2051–2075) and long (2076–2100) period, under two different climate change scenarios (SSP2-45 and SSP5-85). Seven global climate models from the latest projections of future climates that are available (CIMP 6) were compared and ensembled. A bias-correction of the models’ data was performed with five different methods to select the most appropriate one. Results showed that the temperature is expected to increase in the future from 2 to 4 °C, and precipitation from 6% to 20%, depending on the scenario. As a result, water discharge would also increase by about 18% in the best-case scenario and by 50% in the worst-case scenario, and the surface runoff would increase between 5% and 30%. The floods and torrential precipitations would also increase in the basin. This trend could lead to soil impoverishment and reduced water availability in the basin, which could damage the watershed’s forests. In addition, rising temperatures would result in a 65% reduction in the snow water equivalent at best and 92% at worst.

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