scholarly journals Dynamic Changes in Groundwater Level under Climate Changes in the Gnangara Region, Western Australia

Water ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 162
Author(s):  
Feihe Kong ◽  
Wenjin Xu ◽  
Ruichen Mao ◽  
Dong Liang

The groundwater-dependent ecosystem in the Gnangara region is confronted with great threats due to the decline in groundwater level since the 1970s. The aim of this study is to apply multiple trend analysis methods at 351 monitoring bores to detect the trends in groundwater level using spatial, temporal and Hydrograph Analysis: Rainfall and Time Trend models, which were applied to evaluate the impacts of rainfall on the groundwater level in the Gnangara region, Western Australia. In the period of 1977–2017, the groundwater level decreased from the Gnangara’s edge to the central-north area, with a maximum trend magnitude of −0.28 m/year. The groundwater level in 1998–2017 exhibited an increasing trend in December–March and a decreasing trend in April–November with the exception of September when compared to 1978–1997. The rainfall + time model based on the cumulative annual residual rainfall technique with a one-month lag during 1990–2017 was determined as the best model. Rainfall had great impacts on the groundwater level in central Gnangara, with the highest impact coefficient being 0.00473, and the impacts reduced gradually from the central area to the boundary region. Other factors such as pine plantation, the topography and landforms, the Tamala Limestone formation, and aquifer groundwater abstraction also had important influences on the groundwater level.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hassan Al-Najjar ◽  
Gokmen Ceribasi ◽  
Emrah Dogan ◽  
Khalid Qahman ◽  
Mazen Abualtayef ◽  
...  

Abstract The water supply in the Gaza Strip substantially depends on the groundwater resource of the Gaza coastal aquifer. The climate changes and the over-exploiting processes negatively impact the recovery of the groundwater balance. The climate variability is characterized by the decline in the precipitation by −5.2% and an increase in the temperature by +1 °C in the timeframe of 2020–2040. The potential evaporation and the sunshine period are expected to increase by about 111 mm and 5 hours, respectively, during the next 20 years. However, the atmosphere is predicted to be drier where the relative humidity will fall by a trend of −8% in 20 years. The groundwater abstraction is predicted to increase by 55% by 2040. The response of the groundwater level to climate change and groundwater pumping was evaluated using a model of a 20-neuron ANN with a performance of the correlation coefficient (r)=0.95–0.99 and the root mean square error (RMSE)=0.09–0.21. Nowadays, the model reveals that the groundwater level ranges between −0.38 and −18.5 m and by 2040 it is expected to reach −1.13 and −28 m below MSL at the northern and southern governorates of the Gaza Strip, respectively.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Femi Emmanuel Ikuemonisan ◽  
Vitalis Chidi Ozebo ◽  
Olawale Babatunde Olatinsu

Abstract Lagos has a history of long-term groundwater abstraction that is often compounded by the rising indiscriminate private borehole and water well proliferation. This has resulted in various forms of environmental degradation, including land subsidence. Prediction of the temporal evolution of land subsidence is central to successful land subsidence management. In this study, a triple exponential smoothing algorithm was applied to predict the future trend of land subsidence in Lagos. Land subsidence time series is computed with SBAS-InSAR technique with Sentinel-1 acquisitions from 2015 to 2019. Besides, Matlab wavelet tool was implemented to investigate the periodicity within land displacement signal components and to understand the relationship between the observed land subsidence, and groundwater level change and that of soil moisture. Results show that land subsidence in the LOS direction varied approximately between –94 and 15 mm/year. According to the wavelet-based analysis result, land subsidence in Lagos is partly influenced by both groundwater level fluctuations and soil moisture variability. Evaluation of the proposed model indicates good accuracy, with the highest residual of approximately 8%. We then used the model to predict land subsidence between the years 2020 and 2023. The result showed that by the end of 2023 the maximum subsidence would reach 958 mm which is approximately 23% increase.


2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 445-461 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Brenner ◽  
Gemma Coxon ◽  
Nicholas J. K. Howden ◽  
Jim Freer ◽  
Andreas Hartmann

Abstract. Chalk aquifers are an important source of drinking water in the UK. Due to their properties, they are particularly vulnerable to groundwater-related hazards like floods and droughts. Understanding and predicting groundwater levels is therefore important for effective and safe water management. Chalk is known for its high porosity and, due to its dissolvability, exposed to karstification and strong subsurface heterogeneity. To cope with the karstic heterogeneity and limited data availability, specialised modelling approaches are required that balance model complexity and data availability. In this study, we present a novel approach to evaluate simulated groundwater level frequencies derived from a semi-distributed karst model that represents subsurface heterogeneity by distribution functions. Simulated groundwater storages are transferred into groundwater levels using evidence from different observations wells. Using a percentile approach we can assess the number of days exceeding or falling below selected groundwater level percentiles. Firstly, we evaluate the performance of the model when simulating groundwater level time series using a spilt sample test and parameter identifiability analysis. Secondly, we apply a split sample test to the simulated groundwater level percentiles to explore the performance in predicting groundwater level exceedances. We show that the model provides robust simulations of discharge and groundwater levels at three observation wells at a test site in a chalk-dominated catchment in south-western England. The second split sample test also indicates that the percentile approach is able to reliably predict groundwater level exceedances across all considered timescales up to their 75th percentile. However, when looking at the 90th percentile, it only provides acceptable predictions for long time periods and it fails when the 95th percentile of groundwater exceedance levels is considered. By modifying the historic forcings of our model according to expected future climate changes, we create simple climate scenarios and we show that the projected climate changes may lead to generally lower groundwater levels and a reduction of exceedances of high groundwater level percentiles.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Wunsch ◽  
Tanja Liesch ◽  
Stefan Broda

<p>Clear signs of climate stress on groundwater resources have been observed in recent years even in generally water-rich regions such as Germany. Severe droughts, resulting in decreased groundwater recharge, led to declining groundwater levels in many regions and even local drinking water shortages have occurred in past summers. We investigate how climate change will directly influence the groundwater resources in Germany until the year 2100. For this purpose, we use a machine learning groundwater level forecasting framework, based on Convolutional Neural Networks, which has already proven its suitability in modelling groundwater levels. We predict groundwater levels on more than 120 wells distributed over the entire area of Germany that showed strong reactions to meteorological signals in the past. The inputs are derived from the RCP8.5 scenario of six climate models, pre-selected and pre-processed by the German Meteorological Service, thus representing large parts of the range of the expected change in the next 80 years. Our models are based on precipitation and temperature and are carefully evaluated in the past and only wells with models reaching high forecasting skill scores are included in our study. We only consider natural climate change effects based on meteorological changes, while highly uncertain human factors, such as increased groundwater abstraction or irrigation effects, remain unconsidered due to a lack of reliable input data. We can show significant (p<0.05) declining groundwater levels for a large majority of the considered wells, however, at the same time we interestingly observe the opposite behaviour for a small portion of the considered locations. Further, we show mostly strong increasing variability, thus an increasing number of extreme groundwater events. The spatial patterns of all observed changes reveal stronger decreasing groundwater levels especially in the northern and eastern part of Germany, emphasizing the already existing decreasing trends in these regions</p>


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Craig Wayne Allen

<p>Te Hapua is a complex of small, privately owned wetlands approximately 60 km northwest of Wellington. The wetlands represent a large portion of the region's remaining palustrine swamps, which have been reduced to just 1% of the pre-1900 expanse. Whilst many land owners have opted to protect wetlands on their land with covenants, questions have been raised regarding potential threats stemming from the wider region. Firstly, some regional groundwater level records have shown significant decline in the 10 to 25 years they have been monitored. The reason for this is unclear. Wetlands are commonly associated with groundwater discharge, so a decline in groundwater level could adversely affect wetland water input. Secondly, estimated groundwater resources are currently just 8% allocated, so there is potential for a 92% increase in groundwater abstraction from aquifers that underlie the wetlands. Finally, predictions of future climate change indicate changes in rainfall quantity and intensity. This would likely alter the hydrological cycle, impacting on rainfall dependant ecosystems such as wetlands as well as groundwater recharge. Whilst previous ecological surveys at Te Hapua provide valuable information on biodiversity and ecological threat, there has been no detailed study of the hydrology of the wetlands. An understanding of the relationship between the surface water of the wetlands and the aquifers that underlie the area is important when considering the future viability of the wetlands. This study aims to define the local hydrology and assess the potential threat of 'long term' groundwater level decline, increased groundwater abstraction and predicted climate change. Eleven months of water level data was supplied by Wellington Regional Council for three newly constructed Te Hapua wetland surface water and adjacent shallow groundwater monitoring sites. The data were analysed in terms of their relative water levels and response to rainfall. A basic water balance was calculated using the data from the monitoring sites and a GIS analysis of elevation data mapped the wetlands and their watersheds. A survey of 21 individual wetlands was carried out to gather water quality and water regime data to enable an assessment of wetland class. Historical groundwater level trends and geological records were analysed in the context of potential threat to the wetlands posed by a decline in groundwater level. Climate change predictions for the Kapiti Coast were reviewed and discussed in the context of possible changes to the hydrological cycle and to wetlands. Results from the wetland survey indicated that there are two distinct bands of wetlands at Te Hapua. Fens are found mostly in the eastern band and are more likely to be discharge wetlands, some of which are ephemeral. Swamps are found mostly in the western band and are more likely to be recharge wetlands. Dominant water input to fens is via local rainfall and local through-flow of shallow groundwater, especially from surrounding dunes. The eastern band of wetlands is typified by higher dunes and hence has greater input from shallow groundwater than wetlands in the western band. Dominant water input to swamps is via local rainfall, runoff, and through-flow from the immediate watershed and adjacent wetlands. Overall, the future viability of the Te Hapua wetland complex appears promising. Historical groundwater declines appear to be minimal and show signs of reversing. Abstraction from deep aquifers is not likely to impact on wetland water levels. Climate change is likely to have an impact on the hydrological cycle and may increase pressure on some areas, especially ephemeral wetlands. The effect of climate change on groundwater level is more difficult to forecast, but may lower water level in the long term.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 363-374
Author(s):  
Jacek Tylkowski ◽  
Marcin Winowski ◽  
Marcin Hojan ◽  
Paweł Czyryca ◽  
Mariusz Samołyk

Abstract. Climate changes, sea transgression and sea coast erosion observed today cause dynamic changes in coastal ecosystems. In the elaboration, cause and effect interrelations between abiotic hazards (hydrometeorological conditions and sea coast morphodynamics) and biotic (Cephalanthero rubrae-Fagetum phytocoenosis) components of natural environment have been defined. An up-to-date phytosociological analysis of a very valuable Cephalanthero rubrae-Fagetum site on cliff tableland was conducted in the context of hitherto temporal variability of climatic conditions and the rate of cliff coast recession. Also, the development prognosis of the researched site in the 21st century is provided, with respect to the expected climate changes and cliff's morphodynamics. The conducted research actions revealed the influence of global hazards (e.g. climate changes, sea transgression and sea coast erosion) on changes in the natural environment on regional scale (with the example of the site of Cephalanthero rubrae-Fagetum on a cliff coast of Wolin island in Poland). It has been established that in the 21st century, a relatively larger hazard to the functioning of the researched site is climate changes (i.e. mostly changes in thermal and precipitation conditions) not the sea coast erosion.


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