scholarly journals Deep Learning based assessment of groundwater level development in Germany until 2100

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Wunsch ◽  
Tanja Liesch ◽  
Stefan Broda
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Groundwater Abstraction ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Entire Area ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
The Past ◽  
Skill Scores

<p>Clear signs of climate stress on groundwater resources have been observed in recent years even in generally water-rich regions such as Germany. Severe droughts, resulting in decreased groundwater recharge, led to declining groundwater levels in many regions and even local drinking water shortages have occurred in past summers. We investigate how climate change will directly influence the groundwater resources in Germany until the year 2100. For this purpose, we use a machine learning groundwater level forecasting framework, based on Convolutional Neural Networks, which has already proven its suitability in modelling groundwater levels. We predict groundwater levels on more than 120 wells distributed over the entire area of Germany that showed strong reactions to meteorological signals in the past. The inputs are derived from the RCP8.5 scenario of six climate models, pre-selected and pre-processed by the German Meteorological Service, thus representing large parts of the range of the expected change in the next 80 years. Our models are based on precipitation and temperature and are carefully evaluated in the past and only wells with models reaching high forecasting skill scores are included in our study. We only consider natural climate change effects based on meteorological changes, while highly uncertain human factors, such as increased groundwater abstraction or irrigation effects, remain unconsidered due to a lack of reliable input data. We can show significant (p<0.05) declining groundwater levels for a large majority of the considered wells, however, at the same time we interestingly observe the opposite behaviour for a small portion of the considered locations. Further, we show mostly strong increasing variability, thus an increasing number of extreme groundwater events. The spatial patterns of all observed changes reveal stronger decreasing groundwater levels especially in the northern and eastern part of Germany, emphasizing the already existing decreasing trends in these regions</p>

scholarly journals A Review of Case Studies on Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic Cycle: An Indian Perspective

2021 ◽  
pp. 249-266
Author(s):  
P K Bhunya ◽  
Sanjay Kumar ◽  
Sunil Gurrapu ◽  
M K Bhuyan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Groundwater Level Fluctuations ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Events ◽  
Flood Characteristics

In recent times, several studies focused on the global warming that may affect the hydrological cycle due to intensification of temporal and spatial variations in precipitation. Such climatic change is likely to impact significantly upon freshwater resources availability. In India, demand for water has already increased manifold over the years due to urbanization, agriculture expansion, increasing population, rapid industrialization and economic development. Numerous scientific studies also report increases in the intensity, duration, and spatial extents of floods, higher atmospheric temperatures, warmer sea, changes in precipitation patterns, and changing groundwater levels. This work briefly discusses about the present scenario regarding impact of climate change on water resources in India. Due to the insufficient resolution of climate models and their generally crude representation of sub-grid scale and convective processes, little confidence can be placed in any definite predictions of such effects, although a tendency for more heavy rainfall events seems likely, and a modest increase in frequency in floods. Thus to analyses this effect, this work considers real problems about the changing flood characteristics pattern in two river regions, and the effect of spatial and temporal pattern in rainfall. In addition to these, the work also examines the trend of groundwater level fluctuations in few blocks of Ganga–Yamuna and Sutlej-Yamuna Link interfluves region. As a whole, it examines the potential for sustainable development of surface water and groundwater resources within the constraints imposed by climate change.

scholarly journals Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Shallow Groundwater Conditions in Hungary

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 668
Author(s):  
Attila Kovács ◽  
András Jakab
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Shallow Groundwater ◽  
Predictive Modelling ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Groundwater Levels

The purpose of the present study was to develop a methodology for the evaluation of direct climate impacts on shallow groundwater resources and its country-scale application in Hungary. A modular methodology was applied. It comprised the definition of climate zones and recharge zones, recharge calculation by hydrological models, and the numerical modelling of the groundwater table. Projections of regional climate models for three different time intervals were applied for the simulation of predictive scenarios. The investigated regional climate model projections predict rising annual average temperature and generally dropping annual rainfall rates throughout the following decades. Based on predictive modelling, recharge rates and groundwater levels are expected to drop in elevated geographic areas such as the Alpokalja, the Eastern parts of the Transdanubian Mountains, the Mecsek, and Northern Mountain Ranges. Less significant groundwater level drops are predicted in foothill areas, and across the Western part of the Tiszántúl, the Duna-Tisza Interfluve, and the Szigetköz areas. Slightly increasing recharge and groundwater levels are predicted in the Transdanubian Hills and the Western part of the Transdanubian Mountains. Simulation results represent groundwater conditions at the country scale. However, the applied methodology is suitable for simulating climate change impacts at various scales.

scholarly journals Multi-model approach to quantify groundwater level prediction uncertainty using an ensemble of global climate models and multiple abstraction scenarios

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed M. Touhidul Mustafa ◽  
M. Moudud Hasan ◽  
Ajoy Kumar Saha ◽  
Rahena Parvin Rannu ◽  
Els Van Uytven ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Groundwater Abstraction ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Uncertainty Contribution ◽  
Groundwater Level Prediction

Abstract. Worldwide, groundwater resources are under a constant threat of overexploitation and pollution due to anthropogenic and climatic pressures. For sustainable management and policy making a reliable prediction of groundwater levels for different future scenarios is necessary. Uncertainties are present in these groundwater level predictions and originate from greenhouse gas scenarios, climate models, conceptual hydro(geo)logical models (CHMs) and groundwater abstraction scenarios. The aim of this study is to quantify the individual uncertainty contributions using an ensemble of 2 greenhouse gas scenarios (representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5), 22 global climate models, 15 alternative CHMs and 5 groundwater abstraction scenarios. This multi-model ensemble approach was applied to a drought prone study area in Bangladesh. Findings of this study, firstly, point at the strong dependence of the groundwater levels on the CHMs considered. All groundwater abstraction scenarios showed a significant decrease in groundwater levels. If the current groundwater abstraction trend continues, the groundwater level is predicted to decline about 5 to 6 times faster for the future period 2026–2047 compared to the baseline period (1985–2006). Even with a 30 % lower groundwater abstraction rate, the mean monthly groundwater level would decrease by up to 14 m in the southwestern part of the study area. The groundwater abstraction in the northwestern part of Bangladesh has to reduce by 60 % of the current abstraction to ensure sustainable use of groundwater. Finally, the difference in abstraction scenarios was identified as the dominant uncertainty source. CHM uncertainty contributed about 23 % of total uncertainty. The alternative CHM uncertainty contribution is higher than the recharge scenario uncertainty contribution, including the greenhouse gas scenario and climate model uncertainty contributions. It is recommended that future groundwater level prediction studies should use multi-model and multiple climate and abstraction scenarios.

scholarly journals Multi-model approach to quantify groundwater-level prediction uncertainty using an ensemble of global climate models and multiple abstraction scenarios

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 2279-2303 ◽  
Author(s):  
Syed M. Touhidul Mustafa ◽  
M. Moudud Hasan ◽  
Ajoy Kumar Saha ◽  
Rahena Parvin Rannu ◽  
Els Van Uytven ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Groundwater Abstraction ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Uncertainty Contribution ◽  
Groundwater Level Prediction

Abstract. Worldwide, groundwater resources are under a constant threat of overexploitation and pollution due to anthropogenic and climatic pressures. For sustainable management and policy making a reliable prediction of groundwater levels for different future scenarios is necessary. Uncertainties are present in these groundwater-level predictions and originate from greenhouse gas scenarios, climate models, conceptual hydro(geo)logical models (CHMs) and groundwater abstraction scenarios. The aim of this study is to quantify the individual uncertainty contributions using an ensemble of 2 greenhouse gas scenarios (representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5), 22 global climate models, 15 alternative CHMs and 5 groundwater abstraction scenarios. This multi-model ensemble approach was applied to a drought-prone study area in Bangladesh. Findings of this study, firstly, point to the strong dependence of the groundwater levels on the CHMs considered. All groundwater abstraction scenarios showed a significant decrease in groundwater levels. If the current groundwater abstraction trend continues, the groundwater level is predicted to decline about 5 to 6 times faster for the future period 2026–2047 compared to the baseline period (1985–2006). Even with a 30 % lower groundwater abstraction rate, the mean monthly groundwater level would decrease by up to 14 m in the southwestern part of the study area. The groundwater abstraction in the northwestern part of Bangladesh has to decrease by 60 % of the current abstraction to ensure sustainable use of groundwater. Finally, the difference in abstraction scenarios was identified as the dominant uncertainty source. CHM uncertainty contributed about 23 % of total uncertainty. The alternative CHM uncertainty contribution is higher than the recharge scenario uncertainty contribution, including the greenhouse gas scenario and climate model uncertainty contributions. It is recommended that future groundwater-level prediction studies should use multi-model and multiple climate and abstraction scenarios.

scholarly journals Study of historical groundwater level changes in two Belgian chalk aquifers in the context of climate change impacts

2021 ◽  
pp. SP517-2020-212
Author(s):  
Pascal Goderniaux ◽  
Philippe Orban ◽  
Alain Rorive ◽  
Serge Brouyère ◽  
Alain Dassargues
Keyword(s):  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Aquifer Recharge ◽  
Groundwater Abstraction ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Precipitation Decrease ◽  
Chalk Aquifer ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn Southern Belgium, 23% of abstracted groundwater volumes are from chalk aquifers which represent strategic resources for the region. Due to their specific nature, these chalk aquifers often exhibit singular behaviour and require specific analysis. The quantitative evolution of these groundwater resources is analysed for the Mons Basin and Hesbaye chalk aquifers as a function of past evolution, in the short and long terms. Groundwater level time series exhibit decreases when analysed over different periods. This is particularly visible for the Hesbaye chalk aquifer when comparing the 1960-1990 and 1990-2020 periods. Such decreases are associated to observed temperature increase and a precipitation decrease, inducing a decrease of aquifer recharge, and a probable increase of groundwater abstraction in the adjacent catchment. Past evolution is also discussed considering recent winter and summer drought events. The aquifers exhibit long delays in response to recharge events, particularly where the thickness of the partially saturated zone plays a crucial role in observed delays. Regarding future evolution, simulations of the impact of climate changes using medium-high emission scenarios indicate a probable decrease of the groundwater levels over the Hesbaye chalk aquifer.

scholarly journals Development of groundwater levels as a consequense of climate change

2012 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-34
Author(s):  
M. Pásztorová ◽  
J. Skalová ◽  
J. Vitková ◽  
M. Juráková
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Rainfall Regime ◽  
Wetland Ecosystems ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Run Off ◽  
The Impact

Development of groundwater levels as a consequense of climate changeClimate change poses a significant threat to many wetland ecosystems. Wetlands exist in a transition zone between aquatic and terrestrial environments and can be affected by slight alterations in regional hydrology, which can influence climate change through air temperature changes, regional changes in a rainfall regime, surface run-off, snow, duration of the winter season, groundwater resources and evapotranspiration.Climate change in wetland areas is most significantly reflected in water levels and adjacent groundwater levels, and it can significantly change the hydroecological proportions of wetland ecosystems and endanger rare wetland fauna and flora communities. The focus of this paper is the impact of climate change on the groundwater level in the Záhorie Protected Landscape area in the Zelienka national nature reservation. The impact of the climate change was solved through the meteorological characteristic changes adapted by the GISS98 and CCCM2000 climatic scenarios. The groundwater level was determined by the HYDRUS-ET model for the time frames 2010, 2030 and 2075 in 20-year time intervals and consequently compared to the reference period of 1971-1990.

scholarly journals Impact of Groundwater Abstraction on Hydrological Responses during Extreme Drought Periods in the Boryeong Dam Catchment, Korea

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 2132
Author(s):  
Sanghyun Park ◽  
Hyeonjun Kim ◽  
Choelhee Jang
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Groundwater Abstraction ◽  
Runoff Simulation ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Hydrological Responses ◽  
The Impact

Groundwater withdrawal results in a significant depletion of groundwater storage due to the frequency and intensity of droughts and increasing irrigation demands. To ensure the sustainable use of groundwater resources, it is necessary to accurately simulate the groundwater behavior of catchments using a surface–groundwater integrated runoff model. Most of the existing catchment runoff models have been applied to surface water management; thus, integrated runoff analysis studies that consider the interaction between surface water and groundwater are required. Due to the intensive agricultural sector in Korea and the position of rice as the staple in the Korean diet, more than 50% of groundwater abstraction is used for irrigation. Therefore, it is very important to understand the hydrological interrelationships between agricultural areas and the entire watershed. This study aimed to compare and analyze the groundwater levels in the mountainous areas and paddy field areas in the Boryeong Dam catchment through a surface–groundwater integrated runoff simulation using the Catchment Hydrologic Cycle Assessment Tool model, and to compare the hydrological responses in wet years (2010–2012) and dry years (2014–2016). The maximum difference in the monthly groundwater level in the dry years compared to the wet years was 1.07 m at the forest catchment and 0.37 m at the paddy catchment. These results indicate that the impact of drought on the groundwater level of paddy catchments is not significant compared to the forest catchments; however, drought slows the recovery of the groundwater level before the rainy season, thereby limiting the agricultural groundwater use in the catchment.

scholarly journals Deep learning shows declining groundwater levels in Germany until 2100 due to climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Wunsch ◽  
Tanja Liesch ◽  
Stefan Broda
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Groundwater Level Prediction

Abstract In this study we investigate how climate change will directly influence the groundwater resources in Germany during the 21st century. We apply a machine learning groundwater level prediction framework, based on convolutional neural networks to 118 sites well distributed over Germany to assess the groundwater level development under the RCP8.5 scenario, based on six selected climate projections, which represent 80% of the bandwidth of the possible future climate signal for Germany. We consider only direct meteorological inputs, while highly uncertain anthropogenic factors such as groundwater extractions are excluded. We detected significant declining trends of groundwater levels for most of the sites, revealing a spatial pattern of stronger decreases especially in the northern and eastern part of Germany, emphasizing already existing decreasing trends in these regions. We can further show an increased variability and longer periods of low groundwater levels during the annual cycle towards the end of the century.

scholarly journals Depletion of groundwater resources under rapid urbanisation in Africa: recent and future trends in the Nairobi Aquifer System, Kenya

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (8) ◽  
pp. 2635-2656
Author(s):  
Samson Oiro ◽  
Jean-Christophe Comte ◽  
Chris Soulsby ◽  
Alan MacDonald ◽  
Canute Mwakamba
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Groundwater Abstraction ◽  
Management Scenarios ◽  
Aquifer System ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Groundwater Assessment

AbstractThe Nairobi volcano-sedimentary regional aquifer system (NAS) of Kenya hosts >6 M people, including 4.7 M people in the city of Nairobi. This work combines analysis of multi-decadal in-situ water-level data with numerical groundwater modelling to provide an assessment of the past and likely future evolution of Nairobi’s groundwater resources. Since the mid-1970s, groundwater abstraction has increased 10-fold at a rate similar to urban population growth, groundwater levels have declined at a median rate of 6 m/decade underneath Nairobi since 1950, whilst built-up areas have increased by 70% since 2000. Despite the absence of significant trends in climatic data since the 1970s, more recently, drought conditions have resulted in increased applications for borehole licences. Based on a new conceptual understanding of the NAS (including insights from geophysics and stable isotopes), numerical simulations provide further quantitative estimates of the accelerating negative impact of abstraction and capture the historical groundwater levels quite well. Analysis suggests a groundwater-level decline of 4 m on average over the entire aquifer area and up to 46 m below Nairobi, net groundwater storage loss of 1.5 billion m3 and 9% river baseflow reduction since 1950. Given current practices and trajectories, these figures are predicted to increase six-fold by 2120. Modelled future management scenarios suggest that future groundwater abstraction required to meet Nairobi projected water demand is unsustainable and that the regional anthropogenically-driven depletion trend can be partially mitigated through conjunctive water use. The presented approach can inform groundwater assessment for other major African cities undergoing similar rapid groundwater development.

scholarly journals Seismically induced changes in groundwater levels and temperatures following the ML5.8 (ML5.1) Gyeongju earthquake in South Korea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soo-Hyoung Lee ◽  
Jae Min Lee ◽  
Sang-Ho Moon ◽  
Kyoochul Ha ◽  
Yongcheol Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Groundwater Level ◽  
Seismic Waves ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Fluid Pressure ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Aquifer System ◽  
Groundwater Levels ◽  
Monitoring Wells ◽  
Gyeongju Earthquake

AbstractHydrogeological responses to earthquakes such as changes in groundwater level, temperature, and chemistry, have been observed for several decades. This study examines behavior associated with ML 5.8 and ML 5.1 earthquakes that occurred on 12 September 2016 near Gyeongju, a city located on the southeast coast of the Korean peninsula. The ML 5.8 event stands as the largest recorded earthquake in South Korea since the advent of modern recording systems. There was considerable damage associated with the earthquakes and many aftershocks. Records from monitoring wells located about 135 km west of the epicenter displayed various patterns of change in both water level and temperature. There were transient-type, step-like-type (up and down), and persistent-type (rise and fall) changes in water levels. The water temperature changes were of transient, shift-change, and tendency-change types. Transient changes in the groundwater level and temperature were particularly well developed in monitoring wells installed along a major boundary fault that bisected the study area. These changes were interpreted as representing an aquifer system deformed by seismic waves. The various patterns in groundwater level and temperature, therefore, suggested that seismic waves impacted the fractured units through the reactivation of fractures, joints, and microcracks, which resulted from a pulse in fluid pressure. This study points to the value of long-term monitoring efforts, which in this case were able to provide detailed information needed to manage the groundwater resources in areas potentially affected by further earthquakes.

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