The Random Forest Method in Research of Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators of Regional Development on Informal Employment Rate

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (6) ◽  
pp. 37-55
Author(s):  
E. V. Zarova ◽  
E. I. Dubravskaya
Keyword(s):  
Random Forest ◽  
Regional Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Informal Employment ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Random Forest Method ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

The topic of quantitative research on informal employment has a consistently high relevance both in the Russian Federation and in other countries due to its high dependence on cyclicality and crisis stages in economic dynamics of countries with any level of economic development. Developing effective government policy measures to overcome the negative impact of informal employment requires special attention in theoretical and applied research to assessing the factors and conditions of informal employment in the Russian Federation including at the regional level. Such effects of informal employment as a shortfall in taxes, potential losses in production efficiency, and negative social consequences are a concern for the authorities of the federal and regional levels. Development of quantitative indicators to determine the level of informal employment in the regions, taking into account their specifics in the general spatial and economic system of Russia are necessary to overcome these negative effects. The article proposes and tests methods for solving the problem of assessing the impact of hierarchical relationships on macroeconomic factors at the regional level of informal employment in constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Majority of the works on the study of informal employment are based on basic statistical methods of spatial-dynamic analysis, as well as on the now «traditional» methods of cluster and correlation-regression analysis. Without diminishing the merits of these methods, it should be noted that they are somewhat limited in identifying hidden structural connections and interdependencies in such a complex multidimensional phenomenon as informal employment. In order to substantiate the possibility of overcoming these limitations, the article proposes indicators of regional statistics that directly and indirectly characterize informal employment and also presents the possibilities of using the «random forest» method to identify groups of constituent entities of the Russian Federation that have similar macroeconomic factors of informal employment. The novelty of this method in terms of research objectives is that it allows one to assess the impact of macroeconomic indicators of regional development on the level of informal employment, taking into account the implicit, not predetermined by the initial hypotheses, hierarchical relationships of factor indicators. Based on the generalization of the studies presented in the literature, as well as the authors’ statistical calculations using Rosstat data, the authors came to the conclusion about the high importance of macroeconomic parameters of regional development and systemic relationships of macroeconomic indicators in substantiating the differentiation of the informal level across the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.

scholarly journals Approbation of Approaches to Assessment of ESG Risks of Russian Companies at the Regional Level

Federalism ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 25-42
Author(s):  
Е. S. Emelyanova ◽  
L А. Vasiliev
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Sustainability Assessment ◽  
Corporate Sustainability ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Environmental Risks ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
Data Sampling ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

Climate change is a serious, widespread threat and requires an urgent global response, including in the management of environmental risks. The authors of the study, the results of which are presented in this article, first of all, set the task of assessing the ESG risks of Russian companies at the regional level. The methodology of the study was based only on the analysis of environmental risks due to the historical features of the development of the Russian Federation, the approach of S&P Global in the field of corporate sustainability assessment was adopted, and then the initial values of the companies ‘ E-ratings were adjusted using the impact map developed by the United Nations. To test the proposed approach to assessing environmental risks, we used a sample of data on types of economic activity in the context of the subjects of the Russian Federation. As a result of applying the proposed approach to data sampling, companies were assigned to one of the three categories that determine their exposure to E-risk: high, moderate, and low environmental risk. The E-risk exposure was also assessed based on the company’s regional affiliation to the relevant federal district. The main conclusion of the study was the confirmation of the need to improve the quality of analytics of companies ‘ exposure to environmental risks, the need for more detailed information disclosed by companies. 

scholarly journals 5.8. IMPACT OF BUDGET MONITORING RESULTS ON MACROECONOMIC POLICY

2021 ◽  
pp. 118-122
Author(s):  
Е.А. Посная ◽  
Б.А. Букач ◽  
Д.В. Черемисинова ◽  
А.А. Кургинян
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Monitoring System ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Budget Process ◽  
Effective Activity ◽  
Social And Economic Development ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Recommendations

В статье рассматривается влияние бюджетного мониторинга на политику страны в части наиболее эффективного экономического развития. Анализируются тенденции изменения основных макроэкономических показателей с учетом влияния системы бюджетного мониторинга. Сделаны выводы и даны практические рекомендации относительно эффективного формирования системы бюджетного мониторинга. Бюджетная система страны является фундаментом для эффективной деятельности государственных органов власти, органов местного самоуправления в области социального и экономического развития соответствующих территорий. Современная бюджетная система Российской Федерации неизбежно требует тщательного контроля и непрерывного надзора над соблюдением всех необходимых законодательных норм на всех стадиях бюджетного процесса. Контроль над расходованием бюджетных средств является наиболее актуальной и острой проблемой на сегодняшний день. The article examines the impact of budget monitoring on the country's policy in terms of the most effective economic development. Trends in changes in the main macroeconomic indicators are analyzed, taking into account the impact of the budget monitoring system. Conclusions are made and practical recommendations are given regarding the effective formation of a budget monitoring system. The budgetary system of the country is the foundation for the effective activity of state authorities, local authorities in the field of social and economic development of the respective territories. The modern budgetary system of the Russian Federation inevitably requires careful control and continuous supervision over the observance of all necessary legislative norms at all stages of the budget process. Control over the spending of budget funds is the most pressing and acute problem today.

scholarly journals Impact of Anti-Russian Sanctions on Some Macroeconomic Indicators of Russia’s Development

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-40
Author(s):  
S. Kazantsev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Financial Economic ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Capital Productivity ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

Measures, imposed on the Russian Federation in 2014 to isolate Russia from the world community, were called sanctions. Their immediate goal is to deprive Russia of resources (financial, economic, technical and technological, information, scientific, cultural) that are needed for its development. The sanctioning countries suppose that the damage caused by their sanctions will weaken the socio-economic, military-political, scientific and technological potential of Russia. Some results of the author’s analysis of the impact of sanctions on the macroeconomic indicators of the Russian Federation i presented in this paper. The following indicators were studied: the volume of financial resources provided to Russian organizations, individuals and credit organizations; the volume and dynamics of capital investments and fixed assets; gross domestic product and industrial output; labour and capital productivity, and some other indicators. The years in which anti-Russian sanctions caused the most considerable damage have been identified. The author also shows that the negative impact of sanctions on the economic development of the country is, in many ways, similar to the damage, caused by the global financial and economic crises. The similarity of their impact is because both crises and sanctions deprive the country of resources for economic development. First of all, we are talking about financial resources.

The Impact of the State Policy of Regional Development on the Socio-Economic Alignment of the Regions of the Russian Federation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yana Malikova ◽  
Mattia Masolletti
Keyword(s):  
Regional Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
State Policy ◽  
The State ◽  
Regional Inequality ◽  
Private Partnership ◽  
Internal Policy ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Goals And Objectives

The state policy of regional development, being part of the internal policy of the state, has its own priorities, principles, goals and objectives aimed, inter alia, at reducing regional inequality. The authors of the study pay special attention to the consideration of public-private partnership mechanisms.

scholarly journals Development of a Methodology to Assess the Regional Labor Potential in Modern Russia

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 1613-1618 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Russian Federation ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Regional Level ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Index Method ◽  
The North ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Labor Resources ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Labor Potential

The article presents the results of the development of a methodology for assessing the structural structure of the labor potential of a region and its role in socio-economic development, territorial and environmental features of labor resources and mechanisms of reproduction of labor potential. The development of the methodology was based on a conceptual and methodological review of foreign and domestic scientific sources. Promising markers of labor resources in foreign science have been identified, which are manifested in the assessment of migration risks, the impact of globalization factors, forecasting the dependence of labor productivity at the regional level on market factors, climatic conditions, insurance mechanisms, etc. A high level of scientists' interest in the problem of labor potential on micro-, meso and macro levels in Russia. The authors pay special attention to the assessment of existing approaches to the methods for assessing the labor potential of the region proposed by domestic researchers and applied in the Russian Federation; The features of the main methodological approaches are evaluated; their classification is given, as well as the technology for conducting the assessment, depending on the research tasks of scientists. The article describes the methodology developed by the authors for measuring the labor potential of the region based on the index method, which allows taking into account the specific conditions of its reproduction and use at the regional level, as well as conducting reasonable comparative assessments. The calculations are presented according to the proposed methodology of the state and level of development of labor potential for the regions of the North Caucasus and Southern Federal Districts and the Russian Federation as a whole.

scholarly journals 5.2. THE EFFECT OF THE TRANSFER AS THE INFLUENCE OF EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS ON THE MAIN MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
А.С. Бутузова
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Real Interest Rates ◽  
Exchange Rate Dynamics ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
The Impact

В условиях современной денежно-кредитной политики в Российской Федерации актуальным является вопрос воздействия ослабления национальной валюты на уровень цен в стране (т.е. эффект переноса валютного курса на инфляцию). События в денежно-кредитной сфере конца 2014 г. продолжают оказывать среднесрочный эффект как на финансовые, так и на макроэкономические показатели РФ. Пруденциальная макроэкономическая и денежно-кредитная политика должна учитывать влияние волатильности национальной валюты и уровня инфляции на основные макроэкономические показатели, такие как валовой внутренний продукт, уровень процентных ставок в экономике и реальный доход на душу населения. Цель работы: оценка влияния динамики валютного курса на уровень инфляции и другие основные макроэкономические показатели в РФ (в краткосрочном и среднесрочном периодах как результат перехода к плавающему валютному курсу). В процессе изучения опыта проведения денежно-кредитной политики в РФ использовались методы анализа, в том числе ретроспективного, и синтеза; сбор, консолидация и анализ статистических данных; построение многопеременных графиков и диаграмм. В ходе исследования выявлено влияние валютного курса рубля на инфляцию и другие основные макроэкономические показатели в РФ; оценен эффект переноса валютного курса на инфляцию на различных временных интервалах. Сделан вывод о том, что эффект переноса валютного курса на инфляцию в рассмотренный период нельзя определить однозначно: так, в краткосрочном периоде эффект переноса высок, а в среднесрочном периоде на фоне низкой инфляции и относительно невысокой волатильности курса рубля происходит падение реальных доходов населения и рост реальных процентных ставок в экономике. In the conditions of modern monetary policy in the Russian Federation, the issue of the impact of the weakening of the national currency on the inflation is relevant. The events in the monetary policy at the end of 2014 continue to have a medium-term effect on both financial indicators and macroeconomic indicators of the Russia. The impact of the exchange rate and inflation on a country's GDP, the level of real interest rates and standard of living of the population are important for building prudential macroeconomic and monetary policies. Assessment of the impact of exchange rate dynamics on the main macroeconomic indicators in the Russian Federation (short-term and medium-term results after the transition to a floating exchange rate). Methods of analysis, synthesis and retrospective analysis were used in the process of studying the experience of conducting monetary policy in the Russian Federation; collection, consolidation and analysis of statistical data; construction of multi-variable graphs and charts. The influence of the ruble exchange rate on the main macroeconomic indicators in the Russian Federation has been revealed; the effect of exchange rate carryover on inflation at various time intervals is estimated. It was concluded that the medium-term results of the transition to exchange rate policy are ambiguous: against the background of low inflation and low volatility of the ruble exchange rate, there is a drop in real incomes of the population and a rise in real interest rates in the economy. The significant effect of the transfer of the exchange rate to inflation in the period 2014-2019 not identified.

The causes of poverty in Russia

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-36
Author(s):  
I.S. Ivanchenko
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Regional Development ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Financial Situation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

Subject. This article analyzes the changes in poverty of the population of the Russian Federation. Objectives. The article aims to identify macroeconomic variables that will have the most effective impact on reducing poverty in Russia. Methods. For the study, I used the methods of logical, comparative, and statistical analyses. Results. The article presents a list of macroeconomic variables that, according to Western scholars, can influence the incomes of the poorest stratum of society and the number of unemployed in the country. The regression analysis based on the selected variables reveals those ones that have a statistically significant impact on the financial situation of the Russian poor. Relevance. The results obtained can be used by the financial market mega-regulator to make anti-poverty decisions. In addition, the models built can be useful to the executive authorities at various levels for short-term forecasting of the number of unemployed and their income in drawing up regional development plans for the areas.

Reform of the system of development institutions of the Far East: directions and tasks

2020 ◽  
Vol 93 (4) ◽  
pp. 101-108
Author(s):  
I. S. Khvan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Development ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Far East ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The State ◽  
Market Failures ◽  
The Far East ◽  
Development Institutions ◽  
State Corporation ◽  
The Russian Federation

Development institutions are an important modern instrument of government regulation of the economy in all developed countries. The system of development institutions of the Russian Federation includes the federal and regional development institutions. Key federal development institutions include such well-known state corporations as the investment fund of the Russian Federation; the State Corporation "Bank for Development and Foreign Economic Activity (Vnesheconombank)"; the state corporation "Russian Corporation of Nanotechnologies," etc. According to experts of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, about 200 regional development institutions operate on the territory of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The objectives of this extensive system of development institutions so far have been to overcome the so-called "market failures," which cannot be optimally realized by the market mechanisms, and to promote the sustained economic growth of a country or an individual region. In November 2020, the Government of the Russian Federation announced the reform of the system of development institutions in the country. The article analyzes the goals and main directions of the announced reform. On the example of the system of development institutions of the Far East, an attempt was made to assess its possible consequences.

Budgetary Regulation in the Context of Preventing the Consequences of the Spread of a New Coronavirus Infection in the Russian Federation

Lex Russica ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 74 (2) ◽  
pp. 64-79
Author(s):  
R. V. Tkachenko
Keyword(s):  
Public Relations ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
The State ◽  
Russian Society ◽  
Coronavirus Infection ◽  
The Russian Federation ◽  
Legal Forms ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Budget System

The paper is devoted to the examination of issues related to the increasing importance of budgetary regulation for the proper functioning of a modern innovative society. The key role of the budgetary regulation in the financial process of the State is particularly acute in the context of systemic crises that include socio-economic consequences caused by the spread of a new coronavirus infection (COVID-19) in Russia. In the course of the study, the features of changes in the state financial policy caused by the above-mentioned crisis phenomena are highlighted. The paper describes various approaches to the interpretation of the budgetary regulation as a category of financial law, explores various types and legal forms of methods of the budgetary regulation, analyses mechanisms and the impact of the State on the budget system through the existing legal structure of the budgetary regulation. It is determined that the rules of financial law governing the whole complex of public relations concerning the distribution and redistribution of the national product between the levels of the budget system of the Russian Federation constitute the institution of financial law, namely: the budgetary regulation. The author concludes that the approach based on the concentration of basic powers in the financial field at the federal level significantly slows down the dynamics of development of economic activity in the majority of regions of Russia, while the need for breakthrough innovative development of Russian society determinates the expansion of long-term tax sources of income for regional budgets. In this regard, it is proposed to consolidate additional regulation for revenues gained by regional and local budgets in the form of targeted deductions from federal taxes on a long-term basis.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document