Balancing Trade-Offs in the Detection of Schools at Risk
The quality assurance and evaluation of schools requires early risk-detection; a daunting task since school failures are typically rare and their origins complex. In the Netherlands, the Inspectorate of Education monitors the regulatory compliance of roughly 6000 primary schools, with limited resources and capacity, and a desire for proportionality. In order to aid their risk-based inspection method, we evaluate various case-based prediction models, and propose a principled exploit-explore procedure for organizing school inspections. This approach has the potential to balance the benefits of prioritizing inspections of presumed high-risk schools on the one hand, with the benefits of verifying predicted risks and causal impact evaluations of school inspections on the other.