scholarly journals FORECASTING MONEY DEMAND WITH THE INCLUSION OF FINANCIAL INNOVATION FOR THE ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL DATA ANALYSIS

Author(s):  
Payam Mohammad Aliha ◽  
Tamat Sarmidi ◽  
Fathin Faizah Said

This paper investigates the impact of financial innovations on the demand for money using a dynamic panel data for 10 ASEAN member states from 2004 to 2012 and attempt to forecast the demand for money during 2013 – 2016 to compare between forecasting performance of the fixed effects model with that of random effects model and also to compare the forecasting accuracy of dynamic forecasting and static forecasting obtained from these two models. An autoregressive model by definition is when a value from a time series is regressed on previous values from that same time series. There are two types of forecasting namely dynamic forecast and static forecast. “Dynamic forecast will take previously forecasted values while static forecast will take actual values to make next step forecast. Panel effects models assist in controlling for unobserved heterogeneity when this heterogeneity is constant over time and correlated (fixed effects) or uncorrelated (random effects) with independent variables. Hausman test indicates that the random-effects model is appropriate. We use the conventional money demand that is enriched with the number of automated teller machines (ATM) to proxy for the effect of financial innovations on money demand. By comparing the magnitude of “Root Mean Squared Error” (RMSE) as a benchmark for the two forecasts (0.1164 for dynamic forecast versus 0.0635 for static forecast) we simply find out that static forecast is superior to dynamic forecast meaning that static forecast provides more accurate forecast compared to a dynamic forecast for the fixed-effects model. Therefore, we conclude the static forecast on the basis of the random-effects model provides the most accurate forecasting. The estimation result of the chosen random-effects regression also indicates the estimated coefficient of ATM is not significant meaning that ATM does not impact money demand in ASEAN countries.

Due to globalization, markets are becoming more interconnected as the companies are engaged in doing cross-border offerings. Currently, competitions are intensified because Domestic organizations discover themselves competing with each nearby opposite numbers and worldwide companies. But one component that hinders SMEs is the need for reliable and similar monetary data. According to Abarca (2014), adoption of a high-quality and consistent set of accounting requirements is critical so as for the businesses to remain competitive in ASEAN member states. This paper ambitions to answer the query, what modified into the extent of the impact of compliance with full IFRS and IFRS for SMEs on profitability of agencies belong to real property enterprise? This paper moreover sought to decide whether there may be a sizeable distinction among the groups’ compliance with the overall PFRS and the PFRS for SMEs and to determine whether or now not there is a massive distinction among the companies’ financial normal overall performance earlier than and after the adoption of the PFRS for SMEs.Paired T-test have become employed in case you need to determine whether there is a big distinction between the agencies’ compliance with the entire PFRS and the PFRS for SMEs and to decide whether or not there may be a big difference some of the groups’ monetary performance earlier than and after the adoption of the PFRS for SMEs. Using STATA, the great appropriate version for every economic ratio on the subject of degree of compliance emerge as determined on. First, take a look at parm command became used to find out which most of the Least Squares Dummy Variable Regression Modes (LSDV1, LSDV2, LSDV3) underneath the Fixed Effects Model is the ideal version. Afterwards, Hausman Fixed Random Test changed into used to pick out out which is more suitable amongst Fixed Effects Model and Random Effects Model. If Fixed Effects Model modified into the more appropriate one, the Wald’s test turn out to be used to determine the best version among Fixed Effects Model and Ordinary Least Squares Model. On the alternative hand, if Random Effects Model became the more suitable one, the Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian Multiplier Test for Random Effect have become used to decide the satisfactory version amongst Random Effects Model and Ordinary Least Squares. Moreover, if Ordinary Least Squares became the splendid model, it is going to be in addition tested to check for heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity. White’s test became used to check for heterescedasticity and Variance Inflation Factor have become used to test if multicollinearity is gift. The results display that the adoption of PFRS for SMEs stepped forward the compliance of Philippine real property SMEs. However, no vast alternate became said inside the financial average performance of those companies (as measured with the resource of cross back on assets and go back on equity). This was further supported by the results of the panel regression. This means that despite having a relatively


2018 ◽  
Vol 48 (3) ◽  
pp. 1049-1078 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-François Angers ◽  
Denise Desjardins ◽  
Georges Dionne ◽  
François Guertin

AbstractWe propose a new parametric model for the modelling and estimation of event distributions for individuals in different firms. The analysis uses panel data and takes into account individual and firm effects in a non-linear model. Non-observable factors are treated as random effects. In our application, the distribution of accidents is affected by observable and non-observable factors from vehicles, drivers and fleets of vehicles. Observable and unobservable factors are significant to explain road accidents, which mean that insurance pricing should take into account all these factors. A fixed effects model is also estimated to test the consistency of the random effects model.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 1185-1190
Author(s):  
Nexhat Shkodra ◽  
Xhevat Sopi ◽  
Florentina Xhelili Krasniqi

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has a significant effect on the economic growth and development of host economies, but also on international economic integration through globalization. Particular aspects of this topic are being extensively addressed by scientific research in recent decades. The purpose of this paper is to determine whether globalization and through it the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has an impact on the economic growth (GDPgr) of the Western Balkan countries which are facing a transitional phase. The relation between FDI and economic growth has been analyzed by employing econometric models with panel data approach: linear regression with poled data, the Fixed Effects model, and the Random-Effects model (GLS). The study is based on panel data of six countries for the period between 2004-2018, obtained by the World Bank. The results of the Random Effects model (GLS) shown that lagged FDI has a significant impact on the economic growth (GDPgr) of the Western Balkans (p<0.05%), as well as gross capital formation (Cap) and government expenditure (Gov) whereas export (Ex) has been excluded from the model. The results also shown that there are significant differences in the factors influencing economic growth among countries in the region (LM Method - Breusch-Pagan test; p=0.02455 < 0.05).


Cephalalgia ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 63-72 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amy A Gelfand ◽  
Peter J Goadsby ◽  
I Elaine Allen

Context Infant colic is a common and distressing disorder of early infancy. Its etiology is unknown, making treatment challenging. Several articles have suggested a link to migraine. Objective The objective of this article was to perform a systematic review and, if appropriate, a meta-analysis of the studies on the relationship between infant colic and migraine. Data sources Studies were identified by searching PubMed and ScienceDirect and by hand-searching references and conference proceedings. Study selection For the primary analysis, studies specifically designed to measure the association between colic and migraine were included. For the secondary analysis, studies that collected data on colic and migraine but were designed for another primary research question were also included. Data extraction Data were abstracted from the original studies, through communication with study authors, or both. Two authors independently abstracted data. Main outcomes and measures The main outcome measure was the association between infant colic and migraine using both a fixed-effects model and a more conservative random-effects model. Results Three studies were included in the primary analysis; the odds ratio for the association between migraine and infant colic was 6.5 (4.6–8.9, p < 0.001) for the fixed-effects model and 5.6 (3.3–9.5, p = 0.004) for the random-effects model. In a sensitivity analysis wherein the study with the largest effect size was removed, the odds ratio was 3.6 (95% CI 1.7–7.6, p = 0.001) for both the fixed-effects model and random-effects model. Conclusions In this meta-analysis, infant colic was associated with increased odds of migraine. If infant colic is a migrainous disorder, this would have important implications for treatment. The main limitation of this meta-analysis was the relatively small number of studies included.


2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 501-510
Author(s):  
Ke Yang ◽  
Hiu-Yee Kwan ◽  
Zhiling Yu ◽  
Tiejun Tong

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik D. Alexander ◽  
Libby M. Morimoto ◽  
Pamela J. Mink ◽  
Colleen A. Cushing

The relationship between meat consumption and breast cancer has been the focus of several epidemiological investigations, yet there has been no clear scientific consensus as to whether red or processed meat intake increases the risk of breast cancer. We conducted a comprehensive meta-analysis incorporating data from several recently published prospective studies of red or processed meat intake and breast cancer. In the meta-analysis utilising data from the Pooling Project publication (includes data from eight cohorts) combined with data from nine studies published between 2004 and 2009 and one study published in 1996, the fixed-effect summary relative risk estimate (SRRE) for red meat intake (high v. low) and breast cancer was 1·02 (95 % CI 0·98, 1·07; P value for heterogeneity = 0·001) and the random-effects SRRE was 1·07 (95 % CI 0·98, 1·17). The SRRE for each 100 g increment of red meat was 1·04 (95 % CI 1·00, 1·07), based on a fixed-effects model, and 1·12 (95 % CI 1·03, 1·23) based on a random-effects model. No association was observed for each 100 g increment of red meat among premenopausal women (SRRE 1·01; 95 % CI 0·92, 1·11) but a statistically significant SRRE of 1·22 (95 % CI 1·04, 1·44) was observed among postmenopausal women using a random-effects model. However, the association for postmenopausal women was attenuated and non-significant when using a fixed-effects model (SRRE 1·03; 95 % CI 0·98, 1·08). The fixed- and random-effect SRRE for high (v. low) processed meat intake and breast cancer were 1·00 (95 % CI 0·98, 1·01; P value for heterogeneity = 0·005) and 1·08 (95 % CI 1·01, 1·16), respectively. The fixed- and random-effect SRRE for each 30 g increment of processed meat were 1·03 (95 % CI 1·00, 1·06) and 1·06 (95 % CI 0·99, 1·14), respectively. Overall, weak positive summary associations were observed across all meta-analysis models, with the majority being non-statistically significant. Heterogeneity was evident in most analyses, summary associations were sensitive to the choice of analytical model (fixed v. random effects), and publication bias appeared to have produced slightly elevated summary associations. On the basis of this quantitative assessment, red meat and processed meat intake does not appear to be independently associated with increasing the risk of breast cancer, although further investigations of potential effect modifiers, such as analyses by hormone receptor status, may provide valuable insight to potential patterns of associations.


Author(s):  
Tu Thi Cam Mai

In the context of increasing international competition, production and export costs are the two crucial factors affecting the competitiveness and sustainability of developing ountries’ export growth The p per hen e fo use on estim ting the imp t of export ost on Vien m’s export value. This paper employed panel data set which covers the annual export from 2001 to 2013 of 70 Vietnamese major exporters with 910 observations. Hausman – Taylor (1981) test is used to compare the Random-effects (RE) and Fixed-effects (FE) estimations to determine the most appropriate. The findings confirmed that export cost plays an import nt role in the Vietn m’s export perform n e in the period 2001-2013. The determinants of Vietn m’s export v lue re tr e ost (-2.965), Vietn m’s GDP (0 658) importer’s GDP (0 413) importer’s popul tion (0 289) importer’s openness (0.252). This suggests that the Vietnamese Government should attempt to reduce domestic trade costs to enhance competitiveness and boost export growth sustainably.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
May Elewa

The purpose of this paper is to identify the impact of market capital MC and net profit NP on stock price SP and trade volume (TV) in the developing Egyptian business context. This study collects data from 29 non-financial organizations registered on the EGX 30 during the 6 month, 1/1/2020 to 30/6/2020, lockdown in Egypt due to the first wave of COVID-19. Data for the monthly confirmed cases and death cases of COVID-19 are collected for the 6 months of the study and compared to the monthly records of closing prices and trade volume in Egyptian poundsEGP. The study population represents 174 firm year observations. The firms studied operate in cash, have annual financial reports during the period 1/1 to 31/12, obtain complete financial data, and have not been eliminated all throughout the study. In this work the pooled model, the fixed effects model, and the random effects model are used.SPSSis applied to achieve the required statistical analysis. The study is a panel data analysis. Outcomes demonstrate existing substantial effects between market capital MC and stock price SP during the first wave of COVID-19. However, no significant effect is evident of the market capital MC and net profit NP with the trade volume TV during the first wave of this pandemic. This literature is advantageous for external and internal stakeholders and regulatory bodies. The study is a modest contribution that may help boost the business processes to reach better financial performance in times of unexpected catastrophes.


2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rundong Guo

Using panel data from the China Family Panel Studies for 2010, 2014 and 2016, this paper uses a two-part model, with the first part using a fixed-effects panel logit model and the second part using a linear logit fixed-effects model to study the impact of Internet usage on Chinese households' participation in risky financial markets and the intensity of investment in risky assets after participation. The results find that Internet usage can promote household participation in the risky finance market and increase household investment in risky assets. Therefore, accelerating Internet usage can promote Chinese households' participation in the risk finance market.


Hernia ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 1253-1261 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Liu ◽  
S. van Steensel ◽  
M. Gielen ◽  
T. Vercoulen ◽  
J. Melenhorst ◽  
...  

Abstract Purpose Laparoscopic intraperitoneal onlay mesh in hernia repair can result in adhesions leading to intestinal obstruction and fistulation. The aim of this systematic review is to compare the effects of mesh coatings reducing the tissue-to-mesh adhesion in animal studies. Methods Pubmed and Embase were systematically searched. Animal experiments comparing intraperitoneally placed meshes with coatings were eligible for inclusion. Only studies with comparable follow-up, measurements, and species were included for data pooling and subsequent meta-analysis. Results A total of 131 articles met inclusion criteria, with four studies integrated into one comparison and five studies integrated into another comparison. Compared to uncoated polypropylene (PP) mesh, PP mesh coated with hyaluronic acid/carboxymethyl cellulose (HA/CMC) showed significantly reduced adhesion formation at follow-up of 4 weeks measured with adhesion score of extent (random effects model, mean difference,−  0.96, 95% CI − 1.32 to − 0.61, P < 0.001, I2 = 23%; fixed effects model, mean difference,− 0.94, 95% CI − 1.25 to − 0.63, P < 0.001, I2 = 23%). Compared to PP mesh, polyester mesh coated with collagen (PC mesh) showed no significant difference at follow-up of 4 weeks regarding percentage of adhesion-area on a mesh, using random effects model (mean difference − 11.69, 95% CI − 44.14 to 20.76, P = 0.48, I2 = 92%). However, this result differed using fixed effects model (mean difference − 25.55, 95% CI − 33.70 to − 7.40, P < 0.001, I2 = 92%). Conclusion HA/CMC coating reduces adhesion formation to PP mesh effectively at a follow-up of 4 weeks, while the anti-adhesive properties of PC mesh are inclusive comparing all study data.


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