scholarly journals Ewolucja polityki Federacji Rosyjskiej wobec Białorusi w kontekście wysiłków integracyjnych w ramach Państwa Związkowego

2020 ◽  
Vol 72 (4) ◽  
pp. 129-159
Author(s):  
Michał Słowikowski

Despite expectations, 2019 did not bring a significant breakthrough in the existing model of Russian-Belarusian relations. The extreme scenario – Russia’s seizure of Belarus in the course of the process of ‘deeper integration’ is highly improbable. This is primarily because the Kremlin is not significantly determined to change the existing legal and international status of Belarus. Moreover, Belarus is determined to defend the bilateral relations with Russia formed in the mid-1990s and does not accept the Kremlin’s proposals regarding ‘deeper integration’, which mean limiting its sovereignty. Belarus is determined to defend itself against Russia’s demands, which paradoxically increases the level of social legitimacy of Lukashenko’s authoritarian rule. Russia has a wide set of negative tools to influence Minsk (energy blackmail, destabilisation of the political and socio-economic situation), but it has no positive tools. There is also a noticeable lack of internal coherence in the Russian power camp with respect to the future of Belarus. Russia is interested in changing the current model of the bilateral relations in terms of limiting financial losses resulting from the generous subsidy of the Belarusian economy and Minsk’s disregard for existing obligations in the area of customs and taxation. However, Moscow intends to achieve this goal neither by seizing Belarus nor by destabilising the Belarusian political regime. The issue of ‘deeper integration’ of both countries was, from the very beginning, clearly related to other problems that cast a shadow on Russian-Belarusian relations. Therefore, it should be assumed that Russia’s intention was to use a ‘tax maneuver’ to force Belarus to negotiate in the sphere of finance, economy and compliance with Russian customs and tax standards. The most likely scenario for the development of Russian-Belarusian relations assumes maintaining the existing model of relations but, from now on, Belarus will be deprived of a significant part of the ‘integration rent’.

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (6) ◽  
pp. 107-114
Author(s):  
Лаптева ◽  
Yuliya Lapteva ◽  
Слинько ◽  
Aleksandr Slinko ◽  
Узилевский ◽  
...  

The article analyzes some problems affecting the prospects of Russian-Belarusian relations in the context of the Ukrainian crisis. The current international situation also affects the range of possibilities of transformation of the political regime in Belarus. The article analyzes some positions of Western scholars, providing differing views on the nature of the conflict between Russia and the West, as well as the proposed approaches to the development of relations between the West and Belarus. The analysis allows to define the Russian interests in the development of relations with Belarus more clearly. Currently, among the factors that negatively affect the prospects of bilateral relations the authors point out the economic downturn in Russia, deep structural crisis of the Belarusian economy, the objective shortcomings of existing integration institutions. A significant negative factor is the fact that the Ukrainian crisis contributes to the politicization of issues of bilateral cooperation, which introduces complexity in the formation of stable partnerships.


2004 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 301-323 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maxwell A. Cameron ◽  
Carol Wise

At the time of the decision to negotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), advocates argued that closer integration with Canada and the United States would have a democratizing influence on Mexico's political regime (Baer and Weintraub, 1994: 174–79; Pastor, 1993: 67). Critics of the deal suggested just the opposite, insisting that NAFTA might perpetuate or even reinvigorate authoritarian rule (Aguilar Zinser, 1993: 203–15; Castañeda 1996). With the breakthrough elections of July 2000 and the transfer of executive power to an opposition party the — PAN, or National Action Party — it is timely to ask: were the advocates of NAFTA right all along? Was NAFTA the impetus for Mexico's long overdue transition to democracy?


Author(s):  
A. Arzymatova

1991year entered world history as the collapse of the USSR and the emergence of new independent states on its wreckage. In August 31, 1991, Kyrgyzstan adopted the Declaration on State independence. The transition to democratization began in difficult condition. The political, economic, social crisis set the stage for new reforms in the country. Changes in the political system of society were enshrined in the adopted first Constitution of 1993. The principle of separation of powers was enshrined: legislative, executive and judicial bodies were defined as independent branches of government. The political life of society depends on the type of political regime, public opinion, the influence of ideology and religion, as well as the decency of the media. Constitutional, political and economic reforms in Kyrgyzstan upset the balance government. The instability of democratic institutions and the establishment of authoritarian rule led to the March events of 2005. 


Author(s):  
Timur Gimadeev

The article deals with the history of celebrating the Liberation Day in Czechoslovakia organised by the state. Various aspects of the history of the holiday have been considered with the extensive use of audiovisual documents (materials from Czechoslovak newsreels and TV archives), which allowed for a detailed analysis of the propaganda representation of the holiday. As a result, it has been possible to identify the main stages of the historical evolution of the celebrations of Liberation Day, to discover the close interdependence between these stages and the country’s political development. The establishment of the holiday itself — its concept and the military parade as the main ritual — took place in the first post-war years, simultaneously with the consolidation of the Communist regime in Czechoslovakia. Later, until the end of the 1960s, the celebrations gradually evolved along the political regime, acquiring new ritual forms (ceremonial meetings, and “guards of memory”). In 1968, at the same time as there was an attempt to rethink the entire socialist regime and the historical experience connected with it, an attempt was made to reconstruct Liberation Day. However, political “normalisation” led to the normalisation of the celebration itself, which played an important role in legitimising the Soviet presence in the country. At this stage, the role of ceremonial meetings and “guards of memory” increased, while inventions released in time for 9 May appeared and “May TV” was specially produced. The fall of the Communist regime in 1989 led to the fall of the concept of Liberation Day on 9 May, resulting in changes of the title, date and paradigm of the holiday, which became Victory Day and has been since celebrated on 8 May.


Author(s):  
Jens Meierhenrich

What for many years was seen as an oxymoron—the notion of an authoritarian rule of law—no longer is. Instead, the phenomenon has become a cutting edge concern in law-and-society research. In this concluding chapter, I situate Fraenkel’s theory of dictatorship in this emerging research program. In the first section, I turn the notion of an authoritarian rule of law into a social science concept. In the second section, I relate this concept to that of the dual state and both to the political science literature on so-called hybrid regimes. Drawing on this synthesis, the third section makes the concept of the dual state usable for comparative-historical analysis. Through a series of empirical vignettes, I demonstrate the contemporary relevance of Fraenkel’s institutional analysis of the Nazi state. I show why it is essential reading for anyone trying to understand the legal origins of dictatorship, then and now.


2021 ◽  
pp. 955-973
Author(s):  
Manoel Bittencourt

After four decades of racial segregation, South Africa transitioned to a non-racial democracy in 1994. Inevitably for a country with segregationist labour market policies for so long, South Africa is also one of the most unequal countries in the world. In order to take an overview of government debt in South Africa, this chapter looks at macroeconomic performance but also at how the political regime characteristics and inequality have interplayed with government debt during the 1970–2016 period. The data suggest that economic growth correlates negatively with debt and that democracy correlates positively with debt. In addition, the data do not suggest that democratic maturity is already associated with lower debt nor that the outgoing apartheid-era National Party bequeathed the young democracy with high debt. Encouragingly, the data do suggest that inequality and public expenditure on education correlate positively with debt, which suggests that the democratic government has the median voter in mind when creating debt and also that part of the debt is being invested in human capital formation.


Author(s):  
Manzoor Naazer ◽  
Amna Mahmood ◽  
Shughla Ashfaq

The paper scrutinizes the political rights situation during the first five years (1999-2004) of Pervaiz Musharraf era. Musharraf had come into power after army had revolted over his dismissal as army chief by the prime minister. He strove to project soft image of his government to get legitimacy within the country and recognition from the outside world, particularly the West. He portrayed himself as a liberal leader and later also propagated his idea of “enlightened moderation” as a panacea for the miseries of the Muslim world. Despite his overtures, the political rights situation became bleak during his military rule and no meaningful change took place even during the first two years after country returned to “democratic rule.” Musharraf government denied people of their political rights to prolong his authoritarian rule. His rule was characterized by: arbitrary arrests and imprisonments of political leaders; repression of political activities; imposition of forced exile; political victimization in the name of accountability; attacks on rights to elect the government; military’s direct grip over affairs of state despite transition to the civilian rule; intimidation of opposition over legal framework order; and limitations on freedom of association.


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