scholarly journals Natural Gas Demand Estimation for India: Error Correction Modelling

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (5S3) ◽  
pp. 429-437
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
National Level ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Indian Government ◽  
Energy Mix ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
The Government ◽  
Natural Gas Demand

Share of fossil fuel in India’s primary energy mix is around 92% with natural gas contributing 6% in it. The power, fertilizer and city gas distribution (CGD) sector are the major gas-consuming sector in India. Despite the government efforts to increase the share of natural gas in the primary energy mix, the country still has low per capita gas consumption. In order to enhance natural gas consumption in the country, the Indian government has set up a target to increase natural gas share in the energy mix to 15% by 2022. Therefore, the issue of estimation of the natural gas demand is addressed in the present paper to understand the dynamics of the natural gas market. The error correction model (ECM) is applied at a national and sectoral level to examine the domestic gas demand in India. The study reveals the following findings: (a) At the national and sectoral level, the last year gas consumption is an only statistically significant factor; (b) Price, population and income are not statistically significant at national and sectoral level and (c) Demand for natural gas is price inelastic at the national level

Environmental implication of coal and oil energy utilization in Turkey: is the EKC hypothesis related to energy?

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Adewale Alola ◽  
Ulrich Tiamgne Donve
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Environmental Sustainability ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Energy Utilization ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Ekc Hypothesis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Mix ◽  
The Government

PurposeIn spite of the drive toward environmental sustainability and the attainment of sustainable development goals (SDGs), coal, oil and natural gas energy utilization has remained the Turkey's largest energy mix. In view of this concern, this study examined the role of coal and oil energy utilization in environmental sustainability drive of Turkey from the framework of sustainable development vis-à-vis income expansion over an extended period of 1965–2017.Design/methodology/approachIn this regard, the authors employ carbon emission as an environmental and dependent variable while the Gross Domestic Product per capita (GDPC), coal and oil energy consumption are the explanatory variables employed in the study.FindingsThe study found that both energy mixes (coal and oil) have a detrimental impact on the environment in both the short and long run, but oil consumption exerts a less severe impact as compared to coal energy. In addition, sustainable development via income growth is not feasible because the income–environmental degradation relationship follows a U-shaped pattern (invalidating the Environmental Kuznets curve, EKC hypothesis) especially when coal and oil remained the major source of lubrication to the economy. At least the EKC hypothesis is unattainable in Turkey as long as the country's major energy mix or primary energy (coal and oil) is in use, thus the application of other socioeconomic, macroeconomic policies might be essential.Research limitations/implicationsConsidering the lingering energy challenge associated with Turkey, this novel insight further presented useful policy perspectives to the government and stakeholders in the country's energy sector.Originality/valueThis evidence (the U-shaped relationship) is further ascertained when the aggregate primary energy is employed. Thus, this study provides a novel insight that attaining a sustainable economic growth in Turkey remained a herculean task as long as a more aggressive energy transition approach is not encouraged.

scholarly journals Numerical modeling and assessment of natural gas pipeline separation in China: the data from Henan Province

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 268-278
Author(s):  
Jian-zhong Xiao ◽  
Wei-cheng Kong ◽  
Xiao-lin Wang ◽  
Ming Li
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Modeling ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Henan Province ◽  
Problem Model ◽  
Natural Gas Pipeline ◽  
Mixed Complementarity Problem ◽  
Price Reform ◽  
Gas Market

Abstract China’s natural gas market is focusing on price reform and aims to reconstruct vertically integrated industrial chains in the future. Based on the mixed complementarity problem model of gas markets with nodes in Henan Province, China, as an example, this paper applies numerical modeling to simulate the effects of social welfare and equilibrium prices on nodes in two scenarios: pipeline integration and pipeline separation. The findings reveal the following: (1) Pipeline separation yields greater overall social welfare than pipeline integration, with the welfare shifting from gas producers to consumption markets. (2) Pipeline separation lowers the equilibrium consumption prices by driving competition among gas supply sources. (3) Pipeline separation will increase the contribution of natural gas to primary energy.

scholarly journals Comparison of CO2 emissions reduction efficiency of household fuel consumption in China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 979 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bingjie Xu ◽  
Ruoyu Zhong ◽  
Yifeng Liu
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
National Level ◽  
Energy Structure ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Liquefied Petroleum Gas ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Per Capita

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the correlations among per capita gross domestic product (GDP), household fuel (natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas) consumption, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions through the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) at the regional and national level in China using data from 2003 to 2015. The results validate the EKC assumption and show that per capita GDP is positively related to CO2 emissions; per capita natural gas consumption has a negative impact on CO2 emissions; however, per capita liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) consumption has a positive effect on CO2 emissions. Therefore, increasing natural gas consumption can effectively slow down the environmental degradation of China. Given rapid economic growth, changing the energy structure can improve the environment.

scholarly journals The Potential and Status of Renewable Energy Development in Malaysia

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 2437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wan Syakirah Wan Abdullah ◽  
Miszaina Osman ◽  
Mohd Zainal Abidin Ab Kadir ◽  
Renuga Verayiah
Keyword(s):  
Power Generation ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Energy Development ◽  
Energy Industry ◽  
Energy Mix ◽  
Renewable Energy Development ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
The Government ◽  
Current Energy

The Malaysian Government has set an ambitious target to achieve a higher penetration of Renewable Energy (RE) in the Malaysian energy mix. To date, Malaysia has approximately 2% of its energy coming from RE generation sources compared to the total generation mix and targets achieving 20% penetration by 2025. The current energy mix for Malaysia power generation is mainly provided by natural gas and coal. The discussion will cover the traditional sources of generation including natural gas, coal and big hydro stations. In addition, the paper will cover in depth the potential of RE in the country, challenges, and opportunities in this sector. This study can give an initial evaluation of the Malaysian energy industry, especially for RE and can initiate further research and development in this area in order to support the Government target to achieve RE target of 20% by 2025.

Indonesian energy reform eyes public-private balance

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Local Level ◽  
National Level ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Resource Endowment ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
The Government ◽  
Private Investors ◽  
Energy Assets ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Subject Proposed reforms in the oil and gas sector. Significance In the face of strong resource nationalism, President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo's government faces strong pressure to improve the balance between public control and private participation in the oil and gas sector. To that end, the government proposes to amend the 2001 oil and gas law. Its draft amendment proposes, most notably, that state enterprises should control all production operations, while private investors provide technology and capital. The government is also considering revisions to the upstream regime, which is currently based on production-sharing contracts (PSCs). These changes require parliamentary approval. Impacts Private firms, especially foreign ones, are likely to delay fresh investment in energy assets, given the oil and gas market glut. Indonesia's vast natural resource endowment will attract private interest, but regulatory uncertainty will be an abiding problem. Transparency in the extractive sector will continue to rise at the national level, but local level reforms will be slow.

scholarly journals Long-Term Natural Gas Consumption Forecasting Based on Analog Method and Fuzzy Decision Tree

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (16) ◽  
pp. 4905
Author(s):  
Bartłomiej Gaweł ◽  
Andrzej Paliński
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Decision Trees ◽  
Energy Intensity ◽  
Fuzzy Decision ◽  
Energy Mix ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Fuzzy Decision Trees

Classic forecasting methods of natural gas consumption extrapolate trends from the past to subsequent periods of time. The paper presents a different approach that uses analogues to create long-term forecasts of the annual natural gas consumption. The energy intensity (energy consumption per dollar of Gross Domestic Product—GDP) and gas share in energy mix in some countries, usually more developed, are the starting point for forecasts of other countries in the later period. The novelty of the approach arises in the use of cluster analysis to create similar groups of countries and periods based on two indicators: energy intensity of GDP and share of natural gas consumption in the energy mix, and then the use of fuzzy decision trees for classifying countries in different years into clusters based on several other economic indicators. The final long-term forecasts are obtained with the use of fuzzy decision trees by combining the forecasts for different fuzzy sets made by the method of relative chain increments. The forecast accuracy of our method is higher than that of other benchmark methods. The proposed method may be an excellent tool for forecasting long-term territorial natural gas consumption for any administrative unit.

scholarly journals Impact of natural gas pricing policy for energy security and macroeconomic resilience: A literature review from global perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 927 (1) ◽  
pp. 012009
Author(s):  
M A C Putriastuti ◽  
M Hanita ◽  
P Yusgiantoro
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Pricing Policy ◽  
Natural Gas Market ◽  
Market Dynamic ◽  
Natural Gas Development ◽  
Gas Market ◽  
The Government ◽  
Policy Transformation

Abstract Indonesia’s government has targeted 24% of natural gas in the national energy mix by 2050. However, one of the main problems in Indonesia’s natural gas development is the price mechanism. Unlike many countries, Indonesia’s natural gas market, including its pricing, is still heavily regulated and subsidized by the government. The low natural gas price has damaged the investment climate and slowed the natural gas development in the country. An overview of the global natural gas market evolution, as well as a comprehensive analysis of natural gas market transformation from China and Malaysia, were presented in this paper. The wider gap between supply and demand of natural gas and the increase of the LNG market in Asia have pushed China and Malaysia to reform their natural gas market into a liberalized system. This provides an insight to examine Indonesia’s natural gas pricing policies. The highly regulated market often fails to provide the actual cost of supply, leads to underinvestment, and causes a natural gas shortage in a country. Natural gas pricing policy transformation is mandatory to ensure supply stability and keep up with the global natural gas market dynamic. The transformation should be implemented gradually to give natural gas producers and end-users enough time to adjust to the regulations. In the end, gas-to-gas competition should be set as the long-term goal to allow retail competition in Indonesia’s natural gas market.

NATURAL GAS — THE AUSTRALIAN INCENTIVE

1984 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 124
Author(s):  
J. D. Branson
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Transmission Lines ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
Capital Outlay ◽  
Liquid Fuels ◽  
Social Benefits ◽  
Chemical Derivatives ◽  
Current Consumption ◽  
Energy Independence ◽  
Natural Gas Demand

In recent years finding natural gas in Australia has been worth little more than a dry hole. However, establishment of a centralized buying authority with unitary pricing at, or below, today's levels in conjunction with an independent transmission authority could change that.A capital outlay of approximately A$5 billion (1983 dollar) would be required to establish 5000 km of new nationwide gas transmission lines. Funds for the construction would be raised through issuance of inflation-indexed 30-year bonds, retired by transmission revenues and royalty assignments. Social benefits would arise from the approximately 8500 jobs created by the system's construction and a flow-through of up to 35 000 jobs in related industries subsequent to 1990.When the delivery system was in place adequate demand and supply would be assured by virtue of a pricing system which is based upon the encouragement of the 'export substitution' of other forms of primary energy, as well as energy by-products. At a consumer price level of A$5.25 per gigajoule, inclusive of transmission costs of A$3.00 per gigajoule, an increase of 60 petajoules per annum in excess of current consumption estimates of 400 petajoules per annum would be sufficient to render the system economic. Necessary increases in natural gas demand would come from electric plant conversions, primary manufacturing energy conversions, motor transport conversions, export of chemical derivatives, etc. Thus, the more readily transportable, hence marketable, primary energy sources — coal and crude oil — would have a market effect on the balance of payments/trade position.Thus, we take an 'excess' energy form in a nation which today is still dependent upon outside sources of liquid fuels and convert it to an 'energy independence' form, while creating simultaneous nationwide social benefits.

scholarly journals Forecasting of Day-Ahead Natural Gas Consumption Demand in Greece Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 2317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Papageorgiou ◽  
Elpiniki I. Papageorgiou ◽  
Katarzyna Poczeta ◽  
Dionysis Bochtis ◽  
George Stamoulis
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Fuzzy Inference ◽  
Inference System ◽  
Hybrid Combination ◽  
Neuro Fuzzy ◽  
Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Consumption ◽  
Natural Gas Demand ◽  
Consumption Demand

(1) Background: Forecasting of energy consumption demand is a crucial task linked directly with the economy of every country all over the world. Accurate natural gas consumption forecasting allows policy makers to formulate natural gas supply planning and apply the right strategic policies in this direction. In order to develop a real accurate natural gas (NG) prediction model for Greece, we examine the application of neuro-fuzzy models, which have recently shown significant contribution in the energy domain. (2) Methods: The adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) is a flexible and easy to use modeling method in the area of soft computing, integrating both neural networks and fuzzy logic principles. The present study aims to develop a proper ANFIS architecture for time series modeling and prediction of day-ahead natural gas demand. (3) Results: An efficient and fast ANFIS architecture is built based on neuro-fuzzy exploration performance for energy demand prediction using historical data of natural gas consumption, achieving a high prediction accuracy. The best performing ANFIS method is also compared with other well-known artificial neural networks (ANNs), soft computing methods such as fuzzy cognitive map (FCM) and their hybrid combination architectures for natural gas prediction, reported in the literature, to further assess its prediction performance. The conducted analysis reveals that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the proposed ANFIS architecture results is less than 20% in almost all the examined Greek cities, outperforming ANNs, FCMs and their hybrid combination; and (4) Conclusions: The produced results reveal an improved prediction efficacy of the proposed ANFIS-based approach for the examined natural gas case study in Greece, thus providing a fast and efficient tool for utterly accurate predictions of future short-term natural gas demand.

scholarly journals Major Utilization of Natural Gas in Turkey

2005 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmet Mahmut Kilic
Keyword(s):  
Soviet Union ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Former Soviet Union ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Primary Energy ◽  
World Energy ◽  
Western Market ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas ◽  
Gas Consumption

The aim of this paper is the major utilization of natural gas in Turkey. Turkey is rapidly growing in terms of both its economy and population due to its demand for energy. In the new world energy order, gas usage with no doubt will continue to grow well into the 21st century. Natural gas has been available for Turkish consumption for 17 years. Its use expanded sharply after the signing of the first sales and purchase agreement with the former Soviet Union in 1986. Turkish natural gas usage is projected to increase remarkably in coming years, with the prime consumers, expected to be industry and power plants. Energy demand of Turkey is growing by 8% annually, one of the highest rates in the world. In addition, natural gas consumption is the fastest growing primary energy source in Turkey. Gas sales started at 0.5 bcm (billion cubic meters), in 1987 and reached approximately 22 bcm in 2003. Turkey is an important candidate to be the “energy corridor” in the transmission of the abundant oil and natural gas resources of the Middle East and Middle Asia countries to the Western market.

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