Meteorological conditions of extreme low water level in the northeastern part of the Caspian Sea in April 2019

Atmospheric circulation processes that caused an extreme sea level drop in the area of the Kashagan offshore oil field in the northeastern part of the Caspian Sea in April 2019 are reviewed and analyzed. It is found that an increase in pressure and wind gradients over the Northern Caspian region led to the occurrence of the set of severe weather events related to each other. An extreme sea level drop caused by the downsurge driven by strong wind was recorded in the area of the Kashagan oil field. Behind the cold front, the cold advection occurred, causing a dramatic air temperature drop by 13 °С. A high temperature contrast and high relative humidity led to the abnormal amount of precipitation of 33 mm per two days. Keywords: water level, severe weather events, downsurge, northeastern part of the Caspian Sea

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The future decline in lake levels puts an evolutionary giant at risk

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14808 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Matthias Prange ◽

Sri Nandini-Weiss ◽

Thomas Wilke ◽

Frank Wesselingh

Keyword(s):

Global Warming ◽

Water Level ◽

Sea Level ◽

Caspian Sea ◽

First Century ◽

Lake Levels ◽

The Caspian Sea ◽

Future Global Warming ◽

The World ◽

Twenty First Century

Continental drying in response to global warming will entail declining lake levels all over the world. Falling lake levels will have many far-reaching consequences that are underappreciated, but affect the livelihoods and economies of millions of people. A massive warning signal is the projected twenty-first century water level drop of up to 18 m in high emissions scenarios for the Caspian Sea, the largest lake in the world, which could hit stakeholders unprepared. Such a catastrophic drop in the Caspian Sea level would lead to a surface area decrease of 34% including the loss of the highly productive northern Caspian shelf and important wetlands such as the Volga Delta and other Ramsar sites. The disappearance of the vast shallow shelves, which are major food suppliers for fish and birds, will devastate native and endemic fish species, the Caspian seal and a richness of molluscs and crustacean species unique to the lake. The falling water level will not only threaten the unique ecosystem, but will also have severe impacts on regional economies and geopolitical stability.In the first part of this presentation, we discuss the extent of twenty-first century projected continental drying on a global scale and its potential effect on worldwide lake levels. In the second part, we focus on the Caspian Sea and discuss the potential impacts of water level fall on biodiversity and ecosystem services. Finally, we address the question to which extent paleoclimates can be used as analogs for future global warming scenarios with respect to changes in the Caspian Sea level.

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Changes of water level fluctuations of the Caspian Sea to the end of the 20th century

Geografie ◽

10.37040/geografie2007112040406 ◽

2007 ◽

Vol 112 (4) ◽

pp. 406-423

Author(s):

Břetislav Svozil

Keyword(s):

Water Level ◽

Sea Level ◽

20Th Century ◽

Caspian Sea ◽

Water Level Fluctuations ◽

Historical Overview ◽

Level Fluctuation ◽

The Caspian Sea ◽

Variability Level ◽

Short Time

This article deals with problems of variability level of the Caspian Sea. It brings a historical overview with an accent put on the 20th century. It points out causes of the decrease and the lift of the Caspian Sea level, mentions causes as well as consequences of these phenomena. It also deals with prognosticating: it examines whether an erroneous prognosis can influence solution of the problem and whether can cause huge damages. And it also mentions nonperiodical sea sway, increasing and decreasing water level fluctuations, which can cause short-time increases or decreases the Caspian Sea level, as well as the main causes of the Caspian Sea variability level, formulation of prognoses and impacts of the level fluctuation.

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Secular Variability of the Caspian Sea Level

Russian Meteorology and Hydrology ◽

10.3103/s1068373918100072 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 43 (10) ◽

pp. 679-685 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

A. V. Kislov

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Caspian Sea ◽

The Caspian Sea ◽

Secular Variability

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Seasonal variability of the Caspian Sea three-dimensional circulation, sea level and air-sea interaction

Ocean Science ◽

10.5194/os-6-311-2010 ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. 311-329 ◽

Cited By ~ 41

Author(s):

R. A. Ibrayev ◽

E. Özsoy ◽

C. Schrum ◽

H. İ. Sur

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Wind Stress ◽

Caspian Sea ◽

Seasonal Cycle ◽

Three Dimensional ◽

Heat Fluxes ◽

Sea Surface ◽

Coastal Currents ◽

The Caspian Sea ◽

Sea Surface Topography

Abstract. A three-dimensional primitive equation model including sea ice thermodynamics and air-sea interaction is used to study seasonal circulation and water mass variability in the Caspian Sea under the influence of realistic mass, momentum and heat fluxes. River discharges, precipitation, radiation and wind stress are seasonally specified in the model, based on available data sets. The evaporation rate, sensible and latent heat fluxes at the sea surface are computed interactively through an atmospheric boundary layer sub-model, using the ECMWF-ERA15 re-analysis atmospheric data and model generated sea surface temperature. The model successfully simulates sea-level changes and baroclinic circulation/mixing features with forcing specified for a selected year. The results suggest that the seasonal cycle of wind stress is crucial in producing basin circulation. Seasonal cycle of sea surface currents presents three types: cyclonic gyres in December–January; Eckman south-, south-westward drift in February–July embedded by western and eastern southward coastal currents and transition type in August–November. Western and eastern northward sub-surface coastal currents being a result of coastal local dynamics at the same time play an important role in meridional redistribution of water masses. An important part of the work is the simulation of sea surface topography, yielding verifiable results in terms of sea level. The model successfully reproduces sea level variability for four coastal points, where the observed data are available. Analyses of heat and water budgets confirm climatologic estimates of heat and moisture fluxes at the sea surface. Experiments performed with variations in external forcing suggest a sensitive response of the circulation and the water budget to atmospheric and river forcing.

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On the correlation between oscillations of the Caspian Sea level and the North Atlantic climate

Izvestiya Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics ◽

10.1134/s000143381402008x ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 50 (3) ◽

pp. 266-277 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

G. N. Panin ◽

N. A. Diansky

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

North Atlantic ◽

Caspian Sea ◽

The Caspian Sea ◽

The North ◽

North Atlantic Climate ◽

The North Atlantic

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Features of seasonal changes of the Caspian Sea level

ANAS Transactions Earth Sciences ◽

10.33677/ggianas20190100025 ◽

2019 ◽

Author(s):

E.S. Safarov ◽

◽

J.-F. Cretaux ◽

R.M. Mammadov ◽

A. Arsen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Caspian Sea ◽

Seasonal Changes ◽

The Caspian Sea

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Tsunami Hazard of the Caspian Sea

10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15836 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Alisa Medvedeva ◽

Igor Medvedev

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Caspian Sea ◽

Tsunami Hazard ◽

Seismic Sources ◽

Deterministic Approach ◽

The Caspian Sea ◽

Tsunami Waves ◽

The Mean ◽

Run Up ◽

Sea Coast

A regional model of tsunami seismic sources in the zone of the Main Caucasian thrust has been developed. The parameters of probable models of seismic sources and their uncertainties were estimated based on the available data on historical earthquakes and active faults of the region. The scenario modeling technique was used for the tsunami zoning of the Caspian Sea coast. The time period covered by the model catalog of earthquakes used to calculate the generation and propagation of tsunamis is about 20 000 years, which is longer than the recurrence periods of the strongest possible earthquakes. The recurrence graphs of the calculated maximum tsunami heights for the entire sea coast were plotted. On their basis, the maximum heights of tsunami waves on the coast were calculated with recurrence periods of 250, 500, 1000 and 5000 years and the corresponding survey maps of the tsunami zoning of the Caspian Sea were created. The algorithm for calculating the tsunami run-up on the coast is improved, taking into account the residual (postseismic) displacements of the bottom and land relief. Estimates of tsunami hazard for the coast near the city of Kaspiysk were carried out: within the framework of the deterministic approach, the maximum wave heights and run-up distance were calculated. It is shown that the deterministic approach slightly overestimates the maximum heights of tsunami waves with certain return periods. It is shown that changes in the mean sea level can affect the features of the propagation of tsunami waves in the Caspian Sea. Thus, at an average sea level of -25-26 m, the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Bay is linked with the entire sea through a narrow strait. It leads to the propagation of tsunami waves into the water area of the bay and a decrease in wave height on the eastern coast of the sea. When the mean sea level decreases below -27 m, the positive depths in the strait disappear and water exchange through the strait stops, and the wave height in this part of the sea increases.

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