scholarly journals Developing Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping Techniques for Consequence Analysis of Second and Third Order Effects

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 71-81
Author(s):  
Kenneth McDonald ◽  
Derek Sanchez ◽  
Kenneth Voet ◽  
Ryan Powis ◽  
Joshua Norris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Mapping ◽  
Order Effect ◽  
High Yield ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Third Order ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping ◽  
Consequence Analysis ◽  
Mapping Techniques ◽  
Complex Relationships ◽  
Entity Relationships

The Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) is the Department of Defense’s (DOD) official Combat Support Agency for countering weapons of mass destruction (WMD). DTRA focuses on WMD and mitigating the consequences of a chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and high yield explosive threat (CBRNE). The initial direct effects of a CBRNE incident are well defined and documented; however, the second and third order effect’s are complex and not thoroughly understood or documented.  Consequence analysis is the practice of analyzing the effects of major events such as a CBRNE event and can assist in predicting the second and third order effects.  Currently there is no method to predict or analyze the second and third order effects of CBRNE events. This research focused on identifying the entities associated with a CBRNE event initially.  The use of experts and surveys developed an exhaustive list of entities and associated realtionships.  The follow-on research focused on the type and strength of the entity relationships.  Next, Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) techniques identify and evaluate the complex relationships of the second and third order effects.   Using a mind mapping computer program, FCM techniques produced second and third order effect relationships.  The final product provided a solid first attempt at analyzing a CBRNE event and the associated second and third order effects.  Subsequent research will require greater effort to employ system dynamics techniques to enhance the product and develop a more thorough model.

Using fuzzy cognitive mapping techniques to model situation awareness for army infantry platoon leaders

2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 272-295 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rashaad E. T. Jones ◽  
Erik S. Connors ◽  
Mary E. Mossey ◽  
John R. Hyatt ◽  
Neil J. Hansen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Situation Awareness ◽  
Cognitive Mapping ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping ◽  
Model Situation ◽  
Mapping Techniques

Unveiling the dynamics of social credit determinants using fuzzy cognitive mapping and system dynamics

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leandro F. Pereira ◽  
Ricardo J. C. Correia ◽  
Fernando A. F. Ferreira ◽  
Pedro F. Falcão ◽  
Renato L. Costa
Keyword(s):  
System Dynamics ◽  
Cognitive Mapping ◽  
Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping ◽  
Social Credit

scholarly journals The Environmental Impact of Transport Activities for Online and In-Store Shopping: A Systematic Literature Review to Identify Relevant Factors for Quantitative Assessments

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 2981
Author(s):  
Susanne Feichtinger ◽  
Manfred Gronalt
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Distribution Channel ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Third Order ◽  
Screening Process ◽  
Environmental Friendliness ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Recommendations For Action ◽  
Behavioural Factors ◽  
Relevant Factors

In the scientific literature, there are numerous studies with different approaches and focuses on assessing the environmental impact of online shopping and shopping in the traditional retail channel. The aim of this work is to analyse scientific studies that quantitatively assess the environmental impact of transport activities in both channels and to extract the factors used for this assessment. A literature search was conducted for the period 2006 to October 2020, with 90 studies shortlisted, of which 15 studies were identified as relevant in a screening process. The analysis showed that a different number of factors is included in the selected studies. Logistics-related and behavioural factors are mostly of similar importance. Third-order effects, such as rebound or complementary effects, are rarely considered. Furthermore, it becomes clear that the results also depend on differences in study design and external factors. This work illustrates the complexity of quantitatively assessing the environmental impact of online and in-store shopping. Caution is advised when deriving recommendations for action from general statements about the environmental friendliness of a distribution channel. The 15 factors found, together with the classification method used, form a solid basis for building new models.

Reevaluating Order Effects in the Binaural Bithermal Caloric Test

2018 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 104-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Burnette ◽  
Erin G. Piker ◽  
Dennis Frank-Ito
Keyword(s):  
A Priori ◽  
Order Effect ◽  
Individual Variability ◽  
Caloric Test ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Vestibular Disorder ◽  
Total Response ◽  
The Right ◽  
Unilateral Weakness

Purpose The purpose of this study was to determine whether a significant order effect exists in the binaural bithermal caloric test. Method Fifteen volunteers (mean age = 24.3 years, range = 18–38 years) with no history of vestibular disorder, hearing loss, concussion, or neurological disease underwent caloric testing on 3 occasions. Irrigations were randomized using 8 possible order combinations. The parameters of interest included unilateral weakness, directional preponderance, total response from the right ear, and total response from the left ear. Results Order effects were analyzed using 2 methods. The first analysis was done looking at the 8 possible orders. We also had an a priori established hypothesis that the first irrigation tested would influence the calculation of unilateral weakness more than the other 3 irrigations. To test this hypothesis, the 8 orders were condensed into 4 order conditions based on the first irrigation. The effect of order was determined using analysis of variance tests. Although the first irrigation tended to be the largest, no significant effects were observed. Conclusions This experiment demonstrated that while there is great inter-individual and intra-individual variability in caloric test results, the order of irrigations had no significant effect in the test. Future studies may explore the effects of nonphysiological factors on test results.

The United States and Iran

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Takeyh
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
National Security ◽  
Decision Maker ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Other ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Optimal Outcome ◽  
Third Order ◽  
National Interests ◽  
Taking Action

Implementing deterrent and compellent strategies are among the most critical tasks of the national security decision maker. However, as the case of U.S.-Iranian relations since 1979 demonstrates, deterring another state from taking action—especially if it considers those steps to be in its national interests—or compelling it to adopt policies in line with one’s own preferences but which represent a setback to the goals of the other state can be a difficult proposition. In addition, the Iran relationship demonstrates howthe use of deterrent and compellent instruments must be weighed against costs and other second- and third-order effects which may cause the policymaker to accept a less than optimal outcome in order to avoid greater complications in other areas.

The Effects of Flare and Overhangs on the Motions of a Yacht in Head Seas

1993 ◽  
Author(s):  
John C. Kuhn ◽  
Eric C. Schlageter
Keyword(s):  
Nonlinear Differential Equations ◽  
Equations Of Motion ◽  
Linear Equations ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Third Order ◽  
Numerical Work ◽  
Strip Theory ◽  
Hull Forms ◽  
The Time Domain ◽  
The Impact

The coupled heave and pitch motions of hull forms with flare and overhangs are examined numerically. The presence of flare and overhangs is numerically modelled with nonlinear hydrostatic and Froude-Krylov forces based on integrals over the instantaneous wetted surface. Forces due to radiation and diffraction are computed with a linear strip-theory. These forces are combined in two coupled nonlinear differential equations of motion that are solved in the time domain with a fourth-order Runge-Kutta integration method. An assessment of the impact of flare and overhangs on motions is obtained by comparing these nonlinear solutions with solutions of the traditional linear equations of motion, which do not contain forces due to flare and overhangs. For an example based on an International America's Cup Class yacht design, it is found that the nonlinear heave and pitch motions are smaller than the linear motions. This is primarily due to reduced first-order response components, which are coupled with nonlinear response components. Comparisons of these results with towing tank data demonstrate that the nonlinear procedure improves prediction quality relative to linear results. In support of this numerical work, the hydrostatic and Froude­Krylov force integrals are expanded in Taylor series with respect to wave elevation. These results indicate how hydrostatic and Froude-Krylov forces change with changing flare and overhang angles, revealing that sectional slope has second and third-order effects on forces while sectional curvature and overhang angles produce third-order effects.

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