Quantitative separation of impacting factors to runoff variation using hydrological model and hydrological sensitivity analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Runoff Variation ◽  
Impacting Factors ◽  
Quantitative Separation ◽  
Hydrological Sensitivity

scholarly journals A physically-based parsimonious hydrological model for flash floods in Mediterranean catchments

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 2567-2582 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Roux ◽  
D. Labat ◽  
P.-A. Garambois ◽  
M.-M. Maubourguet ◽  
J. Chorda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Soil Properties ◽  
Overland Flow ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Peak Time ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Soil Saturation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. A spatially distributed hydrological model, dedicated to flood simulation, is developed on the basis of physical process representation (infiltration, overland flow, channel routing). Estimation of model parameters requires data concerning topography, soil properties, vegetation and land use. Four parameters are calibrated for the entire catchment using one flood event. Model sensitivity to individual parameters is assessed using Monte-Carlo simulations. Results of this sensitivity analysis with a criterion based on the Nash efficiency coefficient and the error of peak time and runoff are used to calibrate the model. This procedure is tested on the Gardon d'Anduze catchment, located in the Mediterranean zone of southern France. A first validation is conducted using three flood events with different hydrometeorological characteristics. This sensitivity analysis along with validation tests illustrates the predictive capability of the model and points out the possible improvements on the model's structure and parameterization for flash flood forecasting, especially in ungauged basins. Concerning the model structure, results show that water transfer through the subsurface zone also contributes to the hydrograph response to an extreme event, especially during the recession period. Maps of soil saturation emphasize the impact of rainfall and soil properties variability on these dynamics. Adding a subsurface flow component in the simulation also greatly impacts the spatial distribution of soil saturation and shows the importance of the drainage network. Measures of such distributed variables would help discriminating between different possible model structures.

scholarly journals Attribution Analysis of Dry Season Runoff in the Lhasa River Using an Extended Hydrological Sensitivity Method and a Hydrological Model

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1187 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenhui Wu ◽  
Yadong Mei ◽  
Junhong Chen ◽  
Tiesong Hu ◽  
Weihua Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Hydrological Sensitivity ◽  
Lhasa River ◽  
Sensitivity Method ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

In this study, a coupled water–energy balance equation at an arbitrary time scale was proposed as an extension of the Budyko hypothesis. The second mixed partial derivative was selected to represent the magnitude of the interaction. The extended hydrological sensitivity method was used to quantitatively evaluate the impacts of climate change, anthropogenic activities, and their interaction on dry season runoff in the Lhasa River. In addition, an ABCD model, which is a monthly hydrological model included a snowmelt module, was used to calculate the change in soil water and groundwater storage. The Mann–Kendall test, Spearman’s test, dynamic linear model (DLM), and Yamamoto’s method were used to identify trends and change points in hydro-climatic variables from 1956–2016. The results found that dry season runoff increased non-significantly over the last 61 years. Climate change, which caused an increase in dry season runoff, was the dominant factor, followed by anthropogenic activities and their interaction, which led to varying degrees of decrease. This study concluded that the methods tested here performed well in quantifying the relative impacts of climate change, anthropogenic activities, and their interaction on dry season runoff change.

scholarly journals Sensitivity-guided evaluation of the HBV hydrological model parameterization

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 967-990 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. B. Zelelew ◽  
K. Alfredsen
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
River Basin Management ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Flow Conditions ◽  
Model Parameterization ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis Method

Applying hydrological models for river basin management depends on the availability of the relevant data information to constrain the model residuals. The estimation of reliable parameter values for parameterized models is not guaranteed. Identification of influential model parameters controlling the model response variations either by main or interaction effects is therefore critical for minimizing model parametric dimensions and limiting prediction uncertainty. In this study, the Sobol variance-based sensitivity analysis method was applied to quantify the importance of the HBV conceptual hydrological model parameterization. The analysis was also supplemented by the generalized sensitivity analysis method to assess relative model parameter sensitivities in cases of negative Sobol sensitivity index computations. The study was applied to simulate runoff responses at twelve catchments varying in size. The result showed that varying up to a minimum of four to six influential model parameters for high flow conditions, and up to a minimum of six influential model parameters for low flow conditions can sufficiently capture the catchments' responses characteristics. To the contrary, varying more than nine out of 15 model parameters will not make substantial model performance changes on any of the case studies.

scholarly journals Generalization of parameters in the storage–discharge relation for a low flow based on the hydrological analysis of sensitivity

2015 ◽  
Vol 371 ◽  
pp. 69-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Fujimura ◽  
Y. Iseri ◽  
S. Kanae ◽  
M. Murakami
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Optimum Parameters ◽  
Proportional Relationship ◽  
Two Parameters ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Climates

Abstract. The storage-discharge relations have been widely used for water resource management and have led to reliable estimation of the impact of climate change on water resources. In a previous study, we carried out a sensitivity analysis of the parameters in a discharge-storage relation in the form of a power function and found that the optimum parameters can be characterized by an exponential function (Fujimura et al., 2014). The aim of this study is to extend the previous study to clarify the properties of the parameters in the storage–discharge relations by carrying out a sensitivity analysis of efficiency using a hydrological model. The study basins are four mountainous basins in Japan with different climates and geologies. The results confirm that the two parameters in the storage–discharge relations can be expressed in an inversely proportional relationship. In addition, we can conveniently assume a practical function for the storage–discharge relations where only one parameter is used on the basis of the new relationship between the two parameters.

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