scholarly journals Experts use base rates in real-world sequential decisions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Link ◽  
Markus Raab
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Base Rate ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Decision Strategies ◽  
The Real ◽  
Base Rates ◽  
Base Rate Neglect ◽  
Specific Category

AbstractHuman behavior is often assumed to be irrational, full of errors, and affected by cognitive biases. One of these biases is base-rate neglect, which happens when the base rates of a specific category are not considered when making decisions. We argue here that while naïve subjects demonstrate base-rate neglect in laboratory conditions, experts tested in the real world do use base rates. Our explanation is that lab studies use single questions, whereas, in the real world, most decisions are sequential in nature, leading to a more realistic test of base-rate use. One decision that lends itself to testing base-rate use in real life occurs in beach volleyball—specifically, deciding to whom to serve to win the game. Analyzing the sequential choices in expert athletes in more than 1,300 games revealed that they were sensitive to base rates and adapted their decision strategies to the performance of the opponent. Our data describes a threshold at which players change their strategy and use base rates. We conclude that the debate over whether decision makers use base rates should be shifted to real-world tests, and the focus should be on when and how base rates are used.

Improving decision accuracy where base rates matter: The prediction of violent recidivism

1996 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-38
Author(s):  
Vernon L. Quinsey
Keyword(s):  
Real Life ◽  
Base Rate ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Criminal Recidivism ◽  
Decision Accuracy ◽  
Base Rates ◽  
Lay People ◽  
Violent Criminal ◽  
Violent Recidivism ◽  
Life Predictions

AbstractBase rates are vital in predicting violent criminal recidivism. However, both lay people given simulated prediction tasks and professionals milking real life predictions appear insensitive to variations in the base rate of violent recidivism. Although there are techniques to help decision makers attend to base rates, increased decision accuracy is better sought in improved actuarial models as opposed to improved clinicians.

BASE RATE NEGLECT FOR THE WEALTH OF INTERACTING PEOPLE

2010 ◽  
Vol 13 (05) ◽  
pp. 607-619 ◽  
Author(s):  
DIEMO URBIG
Keyword(s):  
Information Processing ◽  
Social Learning ◽  
Learning Process ◽  
Base Rate ◽  
Human Information Processing ◽  
Base Rates ◽  
Base Rate Neglect ◽  
Positive Externalities ◽  
Rate Information

Previous research investigating base rate neglect as a bias in human information processing has focused on isolated individuals. This study complements this research by showing that in settings of interacting individuals, especially in settings of social learning, where individuals can learn from one another, base rate neglect can increase a population's welfare. This study further supports the research arguing that a population with members biased by neglecting base rates does not need to perform worse than a population with unbiased members. Adapting the model of social learning suggested by Bikhchandani, Hirshleifer and Welch (The Journal of Political Economy100 (1992) 992–1026) and including base rates that differ from generic cases such as 50–50, conditions are identified that make underweighting base rate information increasing the population's welfare. The base rate neglect can start a social learning process that otherwise had not been started and thus base rate neglect can generate positive externalities improving a population's welfare.

scholarly journals From Literacy to Information Literacy: Reading for Understanding in the Real World

2021 ◽  
pp. 254-267
Author(s):  
John Royce
Keyword(s):  
Information Literacy ◽  
Real World ◽  
Real Life ◽  
The Internet ◽  
Good Readers ◽  
The Real ◽  
Life Problems ◽  
Complicated Process ◽  
Process Failure ◽  
Vital Component

Good readers evaluate as they go along, open to triggers and alarms which warn that something is not quite right, or that something has not been understood. Evaluation is a vital component of information literacy, a keystone for reading with understanding. It is also a complex, complicated process. Failure to evaluate well may prove expensive. The nature and amount of information on the Internet make evaluation skills ever more necessary. Looking at research studies in reading and in evaluation, real-life problems are suggested for teaching, modelling and discussion, to bring greater awareness to good, and to less good, readers.

scholarly journals Real-Life Continuous Flash Suppression - Rendering The Real World Unconscious Using Augmented Reality Goggles

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Uri Korisky ◽  
Rony Hirschhorn ◽  
Liad Mudrik
Keyword(s):  
Augmented Reality ◽  
Real World ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Continuous Flash Suppression ◽  
Future Studies ◽  
The Real ◽  
Dominant Eye ◽  
Novel Variant ◽  
Real Objects

Notice: a peer-reviewed version of this preprint has been published in Behavior Research Methods and is available freely at http://link.springer.com/article/10.3758/s13428-018-1162-0Continuous Flash Suppression (CFS) is a popular method for suppressing visual stimuli from awareness for relatively long periods. Thus far, it has only been used for suppressing two-dimensional images presented on-screen. We present a novel variant of CFS, termed ‘real-life CFS’, with which the actual immediate surroundings of an observer – including three-dimensional, real life objects – can be rendered unconscious. Real-life CFS uses augmented reality goggles to present subjects with CFS masks to their dominant eye, leaving their non-dominant eye exposed to the real world. In three experiments we demonstrate that real objects can indeed be suppressed from awareness using real-life CFS, and that duration suppression is comparable that obtained using the classic, on-screen CFS. We further provide an example for an experimental code, which can be modified for future studies using ‘real-life CFS’. This opens the gate for new questions in the study of consciousness and its functions.

scholarly journals Expanding the Weighted Updating Model

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesse Aaron Zinn
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Bayesian Updating ◽  
Irrelevant Information ◽  
Base Rate ◽  
Order Effects ◽  
Availability Heuristic ◽  
Base Rate Neglect ◽  
Attribution Bias

This work casts light upon a pair of restrictions inherent to the basic weighted updating model, which is a generalization of Bayesian updating that allows for biased learning. Relaxing the restrictions allows for the study of individuals who discriminate between observations or who treat information in a dynamically inconsistent manner. These generalizations augment the set of cognitive biases that can be studied using new versions of the weighted updating model to include the availability heuristic, order effects, self-attribution bias, and base-rate neglect in light of irrelevant information.

scholarly journals A Novel Method based on Gaussianity and Sparsity for Signal Separation Algorithms

2017 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 1906 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abouzid Houda ◽  
Chakkor Otman
Keyword(s):  
Independent Component Analysis ◽  
Blind Source Separation ◽  
Real World ◽  
Source Separation ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Signal Separation ◽  
Mixing Process ◽  
The Real ◽  
Input Signals ◽  
Novel Method

Blind source separation is a very known problem which refers to finding the original sources without the aid of information about the nature of the sources and the mixing process, to solve this kind of problem having only the mixtures, it is almost impossible , that why using some assumptions is needed in somehow according to the differents situations existing in the real world, for exemple, in laboratory condition, most of tested algorithms works very fine and having good performence because the  nature and the number of the input signals are almost known apriori and then the mixing process is well determined for the separation operation.  But in fact, the real-life scenario is much more different and of course the problem is becoming much more complicated due to the the fact of having the most of the parameters of the linear equation are unknown. In this paper, we present a novel method based on Gaussianity and Sparsity for signal separation algorithms where independent component analysis will be used. The Sparsity as a preprocessing step, then, as a final step, the Gaussianity based source separation block has been used to estimate the original sources. To validate our proposed method, the FPICA algorithm based on BSS technique has been used.

scholarly journals BASE-RATE NEGLECT AS A FUNCTION OF BASE RATES IN PROBABILISTIC CONTINGENCY LEARNING

2008 ◽  
Vol 90 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-32 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Kutzner ◽  
Peter Freytag ◽  
Tobias Vogel ◽  
Klaus Fiedler
Keyword(s):  
Base Rate ◽  
Contingency Learning ◽  
Base Rates ◽  
Base Rate Neglect

scholarly journals Making Science Fiction Real: Neoliberalism, Real-Life and Esports in Eve Online

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Richard Johnson ◽  
Robert Mejia
Keyword(s):  
Science Fiction ◽  
Virtual Worlds ◽  
Real World ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Physical World ◽  
The Real ◽  
Contemporary World ◽  
Neoliberal Capitalism ◽  
Political Economic

In this paper, we argue that EVE Online is a fruitful site for exploring how the representational and political-economic elements of science fiction intersect to exert a sociocultural and political-economic force on the shape and nature of the future-present. EVE has been oft heralded for its economic and sociocultural complexity, and for employing a free market ethos and ethics in its game world. However, we by contrast seek not to consider how EVE reflects our contemporary world, but rather how our contemporary neoliberal milieu reflects EVE. We explore how EVE works to make its world of neoliberal markets and borderline anarcho-capitalism manifest through the political economic and sociocultural assemblages mobilized beyond the game. We explore the deep intertwining of  behaviors of players both within and outside of the game, demonstrating that EVE promotes neoliberal  activity in its players, encourages these behaviors outside the game, and that players who have found success in the real world of neoliberal capitalism are those best-positioned for success in the time-demanding and resource-demanding world of EVE. This thereby sets up a reciprocal ideological determination between the real and virtual worlds of EVE players, whereby each reinforces the other. We lastly consider the “Alliance Tournament” event, which romanticizes conflict and competition, and argue that it serves as a crucial site for deploying a further set of similar rhetorical resources. The paper therefore offers an understanding of the sociocultural and political-economic pressure exerted on the “physical” world by the intersection of EVE’s representational and material elements, and what these show us about the real-world ideological power of science fictional worlds.

A farewell to normative null hypothesis testing in base rate research

1997 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 780-782
Author(s):  
Jonathan J. Koehler
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Methods ◽  
Real World ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Base Rate ◽  
Empirical Testing ◽  
Research Attention ◽  
Base Rates ◽  
Problem Framing ◽  
Null Hypothesis Testing ◽  
Rate Research

I agree with Gibbs that the message of the base rate literature reads differently depending on which null hypothesis is used to frame the issue. But I argue that the normative null hypothesis, H0: “People use base rates in a Bayesian manner,” is no longer appropriate. I also challenge Adler's distinction between unused and ignored base rates, and criticize Goodie's reluctance to shift research attention to the field. Macchi's arguments about textual ambiguities in traditional base rate problems suggest that empirical testing is needed to tease apart the effects of problem clarification and problem framing. Macdonald's, Fletcher's and Snow's skepticism about the value of Bayesian methods in real world judgment tasks is treated as a challenge for the next generation of empirical base rate studies.

A note on correctness and incorrectness: Mathematical systems and their relationships to the real world

1971 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 320-321
Author(s):  
Charles Brumfiel
Keyword(s):  
Real World ◽  
Real Life ◽  
The Other ◽  
Real Problem ◽  
Vast Array ◽  
The Real ◽  
Life Problems ◽  
Mathematical Symbols ◽  
Real Objects ◽  
Mathematical Systems

In the November 1970 issue of the Arithmetic Teacher there appeared my article, “Mathematical Systems and Their Relationship to the Real World.” One point I made is that mathematics provides us with a vast array of symbols and concepts to use in solving real-life problems. When we use mathematics to solve a real problem, we make certa in mental associations between mathematical symbols and real objects. I suggested that arguments sometimes arise because two persons may make different associations, mathematical symbols to real objects, and each thinks his associations are correct while the other person's are incorrect.

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