scholarly journals FUZZY MODEL OPTIMIZATION FOR TIME SERIES DATA USING A TRANSLATION IN THE EXTENT OF MEAN ERROR

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 267-274 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nurhayadi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Model Optimization ◽  
Mean Error

Pendugaan Data Runtun Waktu Debit Aliran Sungai Cikeruh dengan Metode Thomas-Fiering

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-20
Author(s):  
Meiske Shabrina Pesik ◽  
Didi Suhaedi ◽  
M. Yusuf Fajar
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Seasonal Pattern ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Flow Discharge ◽  
Mean Error ◽  
The People ◽  
Monthly Period

Abstract. The Cikeruh River is a source of water for the people who live in the watershed area. The shift in land management has resulted in problems in the availability of water resources. As a policy to overcome this problem, an estimation of the flow rate of the Cikeruh river was carried out. Cikeruh river flow discharge data is observational data with a monthly period included in time series data or time series data. This data has a seasonal pattern so that the method that can be used to predict the discharge data is the Thomas-Fiering Method. To estimate the discharge data for 2018, the Cikeruh river flow discharge data were used every month from 2011 to 2017 as many as 84 historical data. Then after getting the results of the 2018 debit data estimation, the mean error value calculated using Thomas-Fiering was 0.0291. Abstrak. Sungai Cikeruh merupakan sumber air bagi masyarakat yang bermukim di wilayah daerah aliran sungai. Terjadinya pergeseran tata kelola lahan mengakibatkan permasalahan ketersediaan sumber daya air. Sebagai suatu kebijakan untuk mengatasi permasalahan tersebut maka dilakukan pendugaan debit aliran sungai Cikeruh. Data debit aliran sungai Cikeruh merupakan data pengamatan dengan periode bulanan yang termasuk dalam data time series atau data runtun waktu. Data ini memiliki pola  musiman sehingga metode yang dapat digunakan untuk membuat pendugaan data debit adalah Metode Thomas-Fiering. Untuk menduga data debit tahun 2018 digunakan data debit aliran sungai Cikeruh setiap bulannya dari tahun 2011 sampai 2017 sebanyak 84 data historis. Kemudian setelah mendapatkan hasil pendugaan data debit tahun 2018 didapatkan nilai Mean Error perhitungan menggunakan Thomas-Fiering adalah 0.0291.

scholarly journals ENROLLMENT FORECASTING BASED ON LINGUISTIC TIME SERIES

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 119-137
Author(s):  
Nguyen Duy Hieu ◽  
Nguyen Cat Ho ◽  
Vu Nhu Lan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Time Series Forecasting ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Proposed Model

Dealing with the time series forecasting problem attracts much attention from the fuzzy community. Many models and methods have been proposed in the literature since the publication of the study by Song and Chissom in 1993, in which they proposed fuzzy time series together with its fuzzy forecasting model for time series data and the fuzzy formalism to handle their uncertainty. Unfortunately, the proposed method to calculate this fuzzy model was very complex. Then, in 1996, Chen proposed an efficient method to reduce the computational complexity of the mentioned formalism. Hwang et al. in 1998 proposed a new fuzzy time series forecasting model, which deals with the variations of historical data instead of these historical data themselves. Though fuzzy sets are concepts inspired by fuzzy linguistic information, there is no formal bridge to connect the fuzzy sets and the inherent quantitative semantics of linguistic words. This study proposes the so-called linguistic time series, in which words with their own semantics are used instead of fuzzy sets. By this, forecasting linguistic logical relationships can be established based on the time series variations and this is clearly useful for human users. The effect of the proposed model is justified by applying the proposed model to forecast student enrollment historical data.

Fuzzy model translation for time series data in the extent of median error and its application

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. 2113-2124
Author(s):  
Nurhayadi ◽  
Subanar ◽  
Abdurakhman ◽  
Agus Maman Abadi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Median Error

An Evolutionary Functional Link Neural Fuzzy Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting

2013 ◽  
pp. 189-205
Author(s):  
S. Chakravarty ◽  
P. K. Dash ◽  
V. Ravikumar Pandi ◽  
B. K. Panigrahi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Functional Link ◽  
Financial Time ◽  
Neural Fuzzy

This paper proposes a hybrid model, evolutionary functional link neural fuzzy model (EFLNF), to forecast financial time series where the parameters are optimized by two most efficient evolutionary algorithms: (a) genetic algorithm (GA) and (b) particle swarm optimization (PSO). When the periodicity is just one day, PSO produces a better result than that of GA. But the gap in the performance between them increases as periodicity increases. The convergence speed is also better in case of PSO for one week and one month a head prediction. To testify the superiority of the EFLNF, a number of comparative studies have been made. First, functional link artificial neural network (FLANN) and functional link neural fuzzy (FLNF) were combined with back propagation (BP) learning algorithm. The result shows that FLNF performs better than FLANN. Again, FLNF is compared with EFLNF where the latter outperforms the former irrespective of the periodicity or the learning algorithms with which it has been combined. All models are used to predict the most chaotic financial time series data; BSE Sensex and S&P CNX Nifty stock indices one day, one week and one month in advance.

An Evolutionary Functional Link Neural Fuzzy Model for Financial Time Series Forecasting

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 39-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Chakravarty ◽  
P. K. Dash ◽  
V. Ravikumar Pandi ◽  
B. K. Panigrahi
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Financial Time Series ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Fuzzy Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Functional Link ◽  
Financial Time ◽  
Neural Fuzzy

This paper proposes a hybrid model, evolutionary functional link neural fuzzy model (EFLNF), to forecast financial time series where the parameters are optimized by two most efficient evolutionary algorithms: (a) genetic algorithm (GA) and (b) particle swarm optimization (PSO). When the periodicity is just one day, PSO produces a better result than that of GA. But the gap in the performance between them increases as periodicity increases. The convergence speed is also better in case of PSO for one week and one month a head prediction. To testify the superiority of the EFLNF, a number of comparative studies have been made. First, functional link artificial neural network (FLANN) and functional link neural fuzzy (FLNF) were combined with back propagation (BP) learning algorithm. The result shows that FLNF performs better than FLANN. Again, FLNF is compared with EFLNF where the latter outperforms the former irrespective of the periodicity or the learning algorithms with which it has been combined. All models are used to predict the most chaotic financial time series data; BSE Sensex and S&P CNX Nifty stock indices one day, one week and one month in advance.

Graphical Exploratory Data Analysis for Categorical Longitudinal and Time Series Data

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen J. Tueller ◽  
Richard A. Van Dorn ◽  
Georgiy Bobashev ◽  
Barry Eggleston
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Data Analysis ◽  
Exploratory Data Analysis ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Exploratory Data

Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Dollar Amerika Serikat Terhadap Rupiah Tahun 2000–2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-191
Author(s):  
Rizki Rahma Kusumadewi ◽  
Wahyu Widayat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Exchange rate is one tool to measure a country’s economic conditions. The growth of a stable currency value indicates that the country has a relatively good economic conditions or stable. This study has the purpose to analyze the factors that affect the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the United States Dollar in the period of 2000-2013. The data used in this study is a secondary data which are time series data, made up of exports, imports, inflation, the BI rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the money supply (M1) in the quarter base, from first quarter on 2000 to fourth quarter on 2013. Regression model time series data used the ARCH-GARCH with ARCH model selection indicates that the variables that significantly influence the exchange rate are exports, inflation, the central bank rate and the money supply (M1). Whereas import and GDP did not give any influence.

An Anomaly Detection Method with Exemplar Subsequence for Time Series Data

2016 ◽  
Vol 136 (3) ◽  
pp. 363-372
Author(s):  
Takaaki Nakamura ◽  
Makoto Imamura ◽  
Masashi Tatedoko ◽  
Norio Hirai
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Anomaly Detection ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Detection Method ◽  
Series Data

The Comparison of Land Subsidence between East and West Side of Bangkok, Thailand

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Angkana Pumpuang ◽  
Anuphao Aobpaet
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Land Subsidence ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Industrial Estates ◽  
Vertical Displacements ◽  
Land Deformation ◽  
Extensive Farming ◽  
Chao Phraya River ◽  
Set Up

The land deformation in line of sight (LOS) direction can be measured using time series InSAR. InSAR can successfully measure land subsidence based on LOS in many big cities, including the eastern and western regions of Bangkok which is separated by Chao Phraya River. There are differences in prosperity between both sides due to human activities, land use, and land cover. This study focuses on the land subsidence difference between the western and eastern regions of Bangkok and the most possible cause affecting the land subsidence rates. The Radarsat-2 single look complex (SLC) was used to set up the time series data for long term monitoring. To generate interferograms, StaMPS for Time Series InSAR processing was applied by using the PSI algorithm in DORIS software. It was found that the subsidence was more to the eastern regions of Bangkok where the vertical displacements were +0.461 millimetres and -0.919 millimetres on the western and the eastern side respectively. The districts of Nong Chok, Lat Krabang, and Khlong Samwa have the most extensive farming area in eastern Bangkok. Besides, there were also three major industrial estates located in eastern Bangkok like Lat Krabang, Anya Thani and Bang Chan Industrial Estate. By the assumption of water demand, there were forty-eight wells and three wells found in the eastern and western part respectively. The number of groundwater wells shows that eastern Bangkok has the demand for water over the west, and the pumping of groundwater is a significant factor that causes land subsidence in the area.Keywords: Subsidence, InSAR, Radarsat-2, Bangkok

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