scholarly journals DESIGN AND PILOT RUN OF FUZZY SYNTHETIC MODEL (FSM) FOR RISK EVALUATION IN CIVIL ENGINEERING

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 217-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamzah Abdul-Rahman ◽  
Chen Wang ◽  
Yee Lin Lee
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Optimal Allocation ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Synthetic Model

Most of the current construction risk assessment tools deliver unsatisfactory results because the prerequisite for their effective applications rely on the availability of high quality data especially during the early stage of a project. Unfortunately, such data are limited, ambiguous or even not exist due to the great uncertainty inherent in construction projects. Based on Fuzzy Synthetic Analysis (FSA), a model development team was formed among construction engineers, IT professionals, and Mathematicians in developing a holistic risk assessment model to estimate the construction risks especially for the situations with incomplete data and vague environments. Through qualitative scales defined by triangular fuzzy numbers used in pairwise comparisons to capture the vagueness in the linguistic variables, a risk assessment model using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was developed. The Pilot Run revealed the developed Fuzzy Synthetic Model (FSM) could accelerate the decision-making process and provide optimal allocation of project resources to mitigate possible risks detrimental to the success of a project in terms of time, cost, and quality.

Development of the Dundee Caries Risk Assessment Model (DCRAM) - risk model development using a novel application of CHAID analysis

2011 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather M. B. MacRitchie ◽  
Christopher Longbottom ◽  
Margaret Robertson ◽  
Zoann Nugent ◽  
Karen Chan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Caries Risk ◽  
Caries Risk Assessment ◽  
Chaid Analysis

Developing a fuzzy risk assessment model for guaranteed maximum price and target cost contracts in South Australia

Facilities ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (11/12) ◽  
pp. 624-646 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel W.M. Chan ◽  
Joseph H.L. Chan ◽  
Tony Ma
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Target Cost ◽  
Fuzzy Risk Assessment

Purpose – This paper aims to develop a fuzzy risk assessment model for construction projects procured with target cost contracts and guaranteed maximum price contracts (TCC/GMP) using the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method, based on an empirical questionnaire survey with relevant industrial practitioners in South Australia. Design/methodology/approach – A total of 34 major risk factors inherent with TCC/GMP contracts were identified through an extensive literature review and a series of structured interviews. A questionnaire survey was then launched to solicit the opinions of industrial practitioners on risk assessment of such risk factors. Findings – The most important 14 key risk factors after the computation of normalised values were selected for undertaking fuzzy evaluation analysis. Five key risk groups (KRGs) were then generated in descending order of importance as: physical risks, lack of experience of contracting parties throughout TCC/GMP procurement process, design risks, contractual risks and delayed payment on contracts. These survey findings also revealed that physical risks may be the major hurdle to the success of TCC/GMP projects in South Australia. Practical implications – Although the fuzzy risk assessment model was developed for those new-build construction projects procured by TCC/GMP contracts in this paper, the same research methodology may be applied to other contracts within the wide spectrum of facilities management or building maintenance services under the target cost-based model. Therefore, the contribution from this paper could be extended to the discipline of facilities management as well. Originality/value – An overall risk index associated with TCC/GMP construction projects and the risk indices of individual KRGs can be generated from the model for reference. An objective and a holistic assessment can be achieved. The model has provided a solid platform to measure, evaluate and reduce the risk levels of TCC/GMP projects based on objective evidence instead of subjective judgements. The research methodology could be replicated in other countries or regions to produce similar models for international comparisons, and the assessment of risk levels for different types of TCC/GMP projects (including new-build or maintenance) worldwide.

The Need for a Lower Extremity Risk Assessment Model

2009 ◽  
Vol 53 (14) ◽  
pp. 887-891
Author(s):  
Christopher R. Reid ◽  
Pamela McCauley-Bush ◽  
Waldemar Karwowski ◽  
Dianne L. McMullin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Lower Extremity ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Initial Model ◽  
Preliminary Step ◽  
Work Related ◽  
Risk Assessment Tools ◽  
Work Related Musculoskeletal Disorders

Current ergonomic risk assessment tools do not assess possible occupational (extrinsic) and personal (intrinsic) risk factors for the lower extremity regions of employees. This document proposes that it is possible to develop a lower extremity risk assessment (LERA) model for quantifying such risks. A literature review was conducted for work-related musculoskeletal disorders of the lower extremity that affect the nervous, muscular, vascular, and skeletal systems. This initial model of LERA was developed using epidemiological literature and subject matter expert opinion specifically for the knee joint and is considered a preliminary step towards quantifying the etiology of cumulative occupational knee disorders.

scholarly journals Risk-Assessment Model In Lukoil

2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 77-90
Author(s):  
A. Anilov ◽  
M. Alexandvov ◽  
D. Grafov ◽  
A. Lukyanov
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Research Method ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Gasoline Prices ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Operational Risks ◽  
Market Risks ◽  
Study Results ◽  
The One

The article presents empirical study results of Lukoil company risk-assessment model development. The study is based on a cash flow at risk method (CFaR). The assessment of Lukoil company risks is made on the end of 2013. The research method includes assessment of market, credit and operational risks. The obtained results demonstrate that oil prices don't affect the company's CFaR too much but the most severe market risk is the one connected with gasoline prices. To reduce CFaR some hedging procedures may be applied, especially for market risks: for example, options and futures can be used to hedge against changes in oil and gasoline prices fluctuations.

scholarly journals Family Violence Risk Assessment: An Early Study of Police Officers' Experiences at the Frontline

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Stephanie Christine Grant
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Family Violence ◽  
Police Officers ◽  
Organisational Culture ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Police Management ◽  
Violence Risk ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Violence Risk Assessment

<p>The key notion of a police organisational culture unique to frontline police officers explains why police services are resilient to reform, as past attempts by police management to change the traditions of the street-cop culture have proved difficult to achieve. The key tenets of the organisational culture of frontline policing see street-level police negotiate and resist aspects of the NZ Police family violence risk assessment model to which they do not subscribe. Frontline officers' resistance is an expression of their attitudes and beliefs about 'real' police work. These beliefs are informed by the occupational subculture of which they are a part. Officers in this study also resist the increasing bureaucratisation of their role and oppose attempts by management to change the informal rules by which they operate. The established autonomy and isolation of frontline policing allows officers discretion in their implementation of the risk assessment model. This thesis examines the experiences of frontline police officers responsible for implementing family violence risk assessment, in selected areas of the Waikato District. The study employed face to face semi-structured interviews with frontline police officers and sought accounts of their experiences of responding to family violence and their use of the risk assessment tools. The research found that officers recognise and support the improvement of the police response to victims of family violence. Despite this, the introduction of family violence risk assessment in the Waikato District has achieved limited change. This study found considerable evidence of a discrepancy between management policy and operational practice, as the risk assessment model is neither implemented as intended by police management or for which it was designed. This is the result of issues with training and tensions between management directives and established practice at the frontline. These challenges faced by NZ Police are typical of the problems encountered by police organisations implementing similar reforms in other Western jurisdictions.</p>

Development of a Risk Assessment Model for Oman Construction Industry

2014 ◽  
Vol 70 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
K. N. Yafai ◽  
J. S. Hassan ◽  
S. Balubaid ◽  
R. M. Zin ◽  
M. R. Hainin
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Construction Industry ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Arabian Gulf ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Assessment Procedures

Oman as one of the Arabian Gulf countries which have invested billions of dollars in the construction industries, infrastructural services and real estate, but it is clearly identified that risk assessment was not applied for once on these awarded contracts. Lack of knowledge and awareness of risk management or assessment procedures in the construction industry in Oman caused additional cost and time delay in most of the awarded construction projects. This paper aimed at developing a model for risk assessment in the Oman construction industry to save huge amounts of millions of money wasted due to this problem. A field survey of semi-structured questionnaire with face-to-face interviews was carried out in the Oman construction industry including public, contractors and consultants. The research approach relies on data collected from primary and secondary sources. Combination of quantitative and qualitative data analysis was used in analysing the data for the Model development. The risk factors in the Oman construction industry varies from one category to another, the risk factors in government category are more than the consultant category and contractor’s category. Overall, the Oman construction industry has no very high risk factors, which means it has good opportunities for investment. It is expected that the output of this research will have a good and beneficial contribution to save time and money for both public and private sectors in Oman due to expected awareness and improvements in the risk assessment procedures. 

scholarly journals Developing an Ensemble Predictive Safety Risk Assessment Model: Case of Malaysian Construction Projects

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (22) ◽  
pp. 8395 ◽  
Author(s):  
Haleh Sadeghi ◽  
Saeed Reza Mohandes ◽  
M. Reza Hosseini ◽  
Saeed Banihashemi ◽  
Amir Mahdiyar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Working Environment ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Safety Risk ◽  
Safety Risks

Occupational Health and Safety (OHS)-related injuries are vexing problems for construction projects in developing countries, mostly due to poor managerial-, governmental-, and technical safety-related issues. Though some studies have been conducted on OHS-associated issues in developing countries, research on this topic remains scarce. A review of the literature shows that presenting a predictive assessment framework through machine learning techniques can add much to the field. As for Malaysia, despite the ongoing growth of the construction sector, there has not been any study focused on OHS assessment of workers involved in construction activities. To fill these gaps, an Ensemble Predictive Safety Risk Assessment Model (EPSRAM) is developed in this paper as an effective tool to assess the OHS risks related to workers on construction sites. The developed EPSRAM is based on the integration of neural networks with fuzzy inference systems. To show the effectiveness of the EPSRAM developed, it is applied to several Malaysian construction case projects. This paper contributes to the field in several ways, through: (1) identifying major potential safety risks, (2) determining crucial factors that affect the safety assessment for construction workers, (3) predicting the magnitude of identified safety risks accurately, and (4) predicting the evaluation strategies applicable to the identified risks. It is demonstrated how EPSRAM can provide safety professionals and inspectors concerned with well-being of workers with valuable information, leading to improving the working environment of construction crew members.

AHP-Based Method for Military Defence Project Risk Assessment

2011 ◽  
Vol 90-93 ◽  
pp. 3039-3042
Author(s):  
Bao Hua Liu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Development Project ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Ahp Method ◽  
Analytic Hierarchy ◽  
Hierarchy Process ◽  
Type Classification

Based on the risk type classification of model development project, the paper used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) method, established a AHP risk assessment model of development project, and described the risk assessment idea.

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