Probabilistic Approach to the Assessment of the Depth of Soil Freezing

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jerzy Antoni Żurański ◽  
Andrzej Sobolewski
Keyword(s):  
Soil Structure ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
The Other ◽  
Soil Freezing ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Freezing Depth ◽  
Characteristic Values

The paper deals with the probabilistic method of the assessment of the depth of soil freezing. Annual (winter) maxima of the position of the zero centigrade temperature measured in the soil were approximated by Gumbel probability distribution. Its parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood method. Results received on the base of data from 2 meteorological stations and 30 years of observations, called as characteristic values of 50-year return period, refelect the influence of the climatic conditions on the freezing depth. On the other hand the soil structure and its conditions also play an important role in freezing. Nowadays they may be taken into account using correction coefficients. It is concluded that this methods is more precise than a method using so called air freezing index. Received results are not the same as given in the old Polish Standard. New analysis is currently being done.

scholarly journals Probabilistic Analysis as a Method for Ground Freezing Depth Estimation

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (17) ◽  
pp. 8194
Author(s):  
Tomasz Godlewski ◽  
Łukasz Wodzyński ◽  
Małgorzata Wszędyrówny-Nast
Keyword(s):  
Probabilistic Method ◽  
Depth Estimation ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Soil Freezing ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Depth Prediction ◽  
Ground Freezing ◽  
Freezing Depth ◽  
The Impact

Accurate frost depth prediction is an important aspect in different engineering designs such as for pavements, buildings, bridge foundations, and utility lines. This paper presents a probabilistic method of assessment of the depth of soil freezing. Annual (winter) maxima of the position of the zero centigrade temperature measured in the soil were approximated by Gumbel probability distribution. Its parameters were estimated using maximum likelihood method. The results received on the basis of data from 36 meteorological stations in Poland and 50 years of observations, as characteristic values with 50-year return period, reflect the influence of the climatic conditions on the freezing depth. On the other hand, the soil structure and its conditions also play an important role in freezing. Nowadays they may be taken into account using correction coefficients. It is concluded that this method is more precise than a method using the air freezing index because through the use of direct measurements it takes into account additional factors affecting the actual depth of freezing. The obtained results are not the same as those given in the older Polish Standard which was based on the simplified and limited data. The results confirm the impact of climate change on ground freezing depth.

scholarly journals Pendeteksian Outlier pada Regresi Nonlinier dengan Metode statistik Likelihood Displacement

CAUCHY ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 177
Author(s):  
Siti Tabi'atul Hasanah
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Nonlinear Regression ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
General Pattern ◽  
The Other ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Initial Hypothesis ◽  
Outlier Data ◽  
Detection Of Outliers ◽  
Likelihood Displacement

<div class="standard"><a id="magicparlabel-1713">Outlier is an observation that much different (extreme) from the other observational data, or data can be interpreted that do not follow the general pattern of the model. Sometimes outliers provide information that can not be provided by other data. That's why outliers should not just be eliminated. Outliers can also be an influential observation. There are many methods that can be used to detect of outliers. In previous studies done on outlier detection of linear regression. Next will be developed detection of outliers in nonlinear regression. Nonlinear regression here is devoted to multiplicative nonlinear regression. To detect is use of statistical method likelihood displacement. Statistical methods abbreviated likelihood displacement (LD) is a method to detect outliers by removing the suspected outlier data. To estimate the parameters are used to the maximum likelihood method, so we get the estimate of the maximum. By using LD method is obtained i.e likelihood displacement is thought to contain outliers. Further accuracy of LD method in detecting the outliers are shown by comparing the MSE of LD with the MSE from the regression in general. Statistic test used is Λ. Initial hypothesis was rejected when proved so is an outlier.</a></div>

scholarly journals New Bivariate Pareto Type II Models

Entropy ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 473 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lamya Baharith ◽  
Hind Alzahrani
Keyword(s):  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Real Life ◽  
The Other ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Type Ii ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Copula Parameter ◽  
Reliability Modelling ◽  
Lifetime Testing

Pareto type II distribution has been studied from many statisticians due to its important role in reliability modelling and lifetime testing. In this article, we introduce two bivariate Pareto Type II distributions; one is derived from copula and the other is based on mixture and copula. Parameter Estimates of the proposed distribution are obtained using the maximum likelihood method. The performance of the proposed bivariate distributions is examined using a simulation study. Finally, we analyze one data set under the proposed distributions to illustrate their flexibility for real-life applications.

scholarly journals Analysis of selected mathematical models of high-cycle S-N characteristics

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (20) ◽  
pp. 227-240
Author(s):  
Przemysław Strzelecki ◽  
Janusz Sempruch ◽  
Tomasz Tomaszewski
Keyword(s):  
Fatigue Life ◽  
Maximum Likelihood ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Least Squares Method ◽  
Construction Materials ◽  
The Other ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Staircase Method ◽  
Aisi 1045 ◽  
Fatigue Characteristics

The paper presents two approaches of determining S-N fatigue characteristics. The first is a commonly used and well-documented approach based on the least squares method and staircase method for limited fatigue life and fatigue limit, accordingly. The other approach employs the maximum likelihood method. The analysis of the parameters obtained through both approaches exhibited minor differences. The analysis was performed for four steel construction materials, i.e. C45+C, 45, SUS630 and AISI 1045. It should be noted that the quantity of samples required in the second approach is significantly smaller than with the first approach, which translates into lower duration and costs of tests.

Use of Ornamental Trees in Dating of Abandoned Cemeteries on the Example of Thuja Occidentalis and Thuja Orientalis

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-50
Author(s):  
Magdalena Opała ◽  
Leszek Majgier
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
The Other ◽  
Lake District ◽  
Thuja Occidentalis ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Thuja Orientalis ◽  
Ornamental Trees ◽  
Common Tree ◽  
Local Habitat

Abstract Due to the lack of maintenance, abandoned cemeteries are often incorporated into the landscape. In many cases the information about the age of the cemetery is unavailable. To find out the approximate time of the formation of the cemetery the information recorded in the annual tree and shrub rings can be used. One of the most common tree species, planted for ornamental and symbolic purposes on the cemeteries, are Thuja orientalis and Thuja occidentalis. Alien to the Polish flora, these species adapted well to the local habitat and climatic conditions. The paper presents an attempt to apply dendrochronological dating to determine the age of the abandoned cemeteries in the region of the Great Masurian Lakes, part of the Masurian Lake District (north-eastern Poland). The study included five abandoned cemeteries. In total, 15 cores were taken from the trees. After applying the standard dendrochronological method, local chronologies for the studied species were established. The research indicated that the oldest found specimens - over 70 yrs old - are Thuja occidentalis individuals growing at the Słabowo cemetery. At the other sites the specimens of both Thuja species date back to the 1960s and early 1970s. Compared to the historical information regarding the age and origin of the studied objects, thujas growing there are much younger than the age of the cemeteries foundation. The presented method proved to be very helpful in understanding the time of Thuja occidentalis and Thuja orientalis introduction at the investigated cemeteries.

A Predictive Model of the Impact of the Skidding System on Forest Soil in Severe Climatic Conditions

2020 ◽  
pp. 131-144
Author(s):  
S.E. Rudov ◽  
◽  
V.Ya. Shapiro ◽  
O.I. Grigoreva ◽  
I.V. Grigorev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Soil ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Soil Freezing ◽  
Class Iii ◽  
Freezing And Thawing ◽  
Metal Structures ◽  
Rapid Adjustment ◽  
Soil Freezing And Thawing ◽  
The Impact

In the Russian Federation logging operations are traditionally carried out in winter. This is due to the predominance of areas with swamped and water-logged (class III and IV) soils in the forest fund, where work of forestry equipment is difficult, and sometimes impossible in the warm season. The work of logging companies in the forests of the cryolithozone, characterized by a sharply continental climate, with severe frosts in winter, is hampered by the fact that forest machines are not recommended to operate at temperatures below –40 °C due to the high probability of breaking of metal structures and hydraulic system. At the same time, in the warm season, most of the cutting areas on cryosolic soils become difficult to pass for heavy forest machines. It turns out that the convenient period for logging in the forests of the cryolithozone is quite small. This results in the need of work in the so-called off-season period, when the air temperature becomes positive, and the thawing processes of the soil top layer begin. The same applies to the logging companies not operating in the conditions of cryosolic soils, for instance, in the Leningrad, Novgorod, Pskov, Vologda regions, etc. The observed climate warming has led to a significant reduction in the sustained period of winter logging. Frequent temperature transitions around 0 °C in winter, autumn and spring necessitate to work during the off-season too, while cutting areas thaw. In bad seasonal and climatic conditions, which primarily include off-season periods in general and permafrost in particular, it is very difficult to take into account in mathematical models features of soil freezing and thawing and their effect on the destruction nature. The article shows that the development of long-term predictive models of indicators of cyclic interaction between the skidding system and forest soil in adverse climatic conditions of off-season logging operations in order to improve their reliability requires rapid adjustment of the calculated parameters based on the actual experimental data at a given step of the cycles.

SOIL MORPHOLOGY AND SOIL PHYSICAL PROPERTIES. I. SOIL AERATION

1972 ◽  
Vol 52 (3) ◽  
pp. 311-321 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. W. AYRES ◽  
R. G. BUTTON ◽  
E. DE JONG
Keyword(s):  
Soil Structure ◽  
Regression Coefficient ◽  
The Other ◽  
Soil Morphology ◽  
Soil Horizons ◽  
Undisturbed Soil ◽  
Soil Aeration ◽  
Structural Types ◽  
Highly Correlated ◽  
Undisturbed Soil Cores

The relation between soil structure and soil aeration was investigated on undisturbed soil cores from soil horizons exhibiting six distinct kinds of soil structure (prismatic, columnar, blocky, granular, platy, massive) over a broad range of soil texture. Soil aeration was characterized at ⅓ atm suction by measurements of air porosity, relative diffusivity (D/Do) and the rate of oxygen diffusion to a platinum microelectrode (ODR). Aeration was adequate in most of the Chernozemic soil horizons studied; however, aeration in many of the Bnt horizons of the Solonetzic soils was inadequate. Air porosity and D/Do were highly correlated. The regression coefficient for D/Do vs. air porosity for blocky structures was significantly different from that found for the other five structural types. For granular structures a negative correlation was found for ODR vs. air porosity compared with a low positive correlation found for the other structure types.

The co-responsibility of mass and environment in the formation of lenticular galaxies

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (S359) ◽  
pp. 173-174
Author(s):  
A. Cortesi ◽  
L. Coccato ◽  
M. L. Buzzo ◽  
K. Menéndez-Delmestre ◽  
T. Goncalves ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Active Galactic Nuclei ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Method ◽  
Spiral Galaxies ◽  
Galactic Nuclei ◽  
Rotation Velocity ◽  
Elliptical Galaxies ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Lenticular Galaxies ◽  
Galaxies Kinematics

AbstractWe present the latest data release of the Planetary Nebulae Spectrograph Survey (PNS) of ten lenticular galaxies and two spiral galaxies. With this data set we are able to recover the galaxies’ kinematics out to several effective radii. We use a maximum likelihood method to decompose the disk and spheroid kinematics and we compare it with the kinematics of spiral and elliptical galaxies. We build the Tully- Fisher (TF) relation for these galaxies and we compare with data from the literature and simulations. We find that the disks of lenticular galaxies are hotter than the disks of spiral galaxies at low redshifts, but still dominated by rotation velocity. The mechanism responsible for the formation of these lenticular galaxies is neither major mergers, nor a gentle quenching driven by stripping or Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) feedback.

scholarly journals Theory and Applications of the Unit Gamma/Gompertz Distribution

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (16) ◽  
pp. 1850
Author(s):  
Rashad A. R. Bantan ◽  
Farrukh Jamal ◽  
Christophe Chesneau ◽  
Mohammed Elgarhy
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Ordering ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Rate Function ◽  
The Other ◽  
Likelihood Method ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Gompertz Distribution ◽  
Probability And Statistics ◽  
Analytical Behavior

Unit distributions are commonly used in probability and statistics to describe useful quantities with values between 0 and 1, such as proportions, probabilities, and percentages. Some unit distributions are defined in a natural analytical manner, and the others are derived through the transformation of an existing distribution defined in a greater domain. In this article, we introduce the unit gamma/Gompertz distribution, founded on the inverse-exponential scheme and the gamma/Gompertz distribution. The gamma/Gompertz distribution is known to be a very flexible three-parameter lifetime distribution, and we aim to transpose this flexibility to the unit interval. First, we check this aspect with the analytical behavior of the primary functions. It is shown that the probability density function can be increasing, decreasing, “increasing-decreasing” and “decreasing-increasing”, with pliant asymmetric properties. On the other hand, the hazard rate function has monotonically increasing, decreasing, or constant shapes. We complete the theoretical part with some propositions on stochastic ordering, moments, quantiles, and the reliability coefficient. Practically, to estimate the model parameters from unit data, the maximum likelihood method is used. We present some simulation results to evaluate this method. Two applications using real data sets, one on trade shares and the other on flood levels, demonstrate the importance of the new model when compared to other unit models.

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