RISK PERCEPTION AND VULNERABILITY OF VALUE: A STUDY IN THE CONTEXT OF COMMERCIAL PROPERTY SECTOR

The research was developed linking the impact of flood risk on utility, desirability and marketability related to vulnerability of commercial property value. Likert style questionnaire survey was conducted to obtain data from flood affected and un-affected respondents across different designated flood risk zones on key business and perception variables among two groups of business property holders in England. The responses were analysed through a spatial vulnerability model to illustrate the distribution of the vulnerability of value of properties among flood plain business holders on a GIS platform. Majority of respondents perceived that utility of properties may be hampered by flooding and subsequently have an impact on value for property at risk. Those with flood experience gave greater weight to their specific business needs such as the prime location and expected income level than those without flood experience. The implication of the study lies in understanding that flood risk perceptions can shape actions of people at risk towards future increase in resilience having strategic impact on value of property saleability in the future.

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Predicting Future Urban Flood Risk Using Land Change and Hydraulic Modeling in a River Watershed in the Central Province of Vietnam

Remote Sensing ◽

10.3390/rs13020262 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 13 (2) ◽

pp. 262

Author(s):

Huu Duy Nguyen ◽

Dennis Fox ◽

Dinh Kha Dang ◽

Le Tuan Pham ◽

Quan Vu Viet Du ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Land Cover ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Coastal Region ◽

Flood Plain ◽

Hydraulic Modeling ◽

Land Change ◽

Urban Flood ◽

The Impact ◽

Urban Flood Risk

Flood risk is a significant challenge for sustainable spatial planning, particularly concerning climate change and urbanization. Phrasing suitable land planning strategies requires assessing future flood risk and predicting the impact of urban sprawl. This study aims to develop an innovative approach combining land use change and hydraulic models to explore future urban flood risk, aiming to reduce it under different vulnerability and exposure scenarios. SPOT-3 and Sentinel-2 images were processed and classified to create land cover maps for 1995 and 2019, and these were used to predict the 2040 land cover using the Land Change Modeler Module of Terrset. Flood risk was computed by combining hazard, exposure, and vulnerability using hydrodynamic modeling and the Analytic Hierarchy Process method. We have compared flood risk in 1995, 2019, and 2040. Although flood risk increases with urbanization, population density, and the number of hospitals in the flood plain, especially in the coastal region, the area exposed to high and very high risks decreases due to a reduction in poverty rate. This study can provide a theoretical framework supporting climate change related to risk assessment in other metropolitan regions. Methodologically, it underlines the importance of using satellite imagery and the continuity of data in the planning-related decision-making process.

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Flood risk to commercial property

International Journal of Disaster Resilience in the Built Environment ◽

10.1108/ijdrbe-03-2017-0024 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 9 (4/5) ◽

pp. 385-401 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Namrata Bhattacharya-Mis ◽

Jessica Lamond ◽

Burrell Montz ◽

Heidi Kreibich ◽

Sara Wilkinson ◽

...

Keyword(s):

At Risk ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Policy Development ◽

Management Practice ◽

Illustrative Case ◽

Training And Education ◽

Content Type ◽

Commercial Property ◽

And Training

Purpose Improved management of commercial property at risk from flooding may result from well-targeted advice from built environment (BE) professionals, such as surveyors, valuers and project managers. However, research indicates that the role of these professionals in providing such advice is currently limited for a variety of reasons. This paper aims to investigate the (perceived and real) barriers and opportunities for providing such advice in a number of international locations. In particular, the research sought greater understanding of the link between regulation and guidance; perceived roles and capacity; and training and education needs. Design/methodology/approach To cover different international settings, an illustrative case study approach was adopted within the selected countries (Australia, UK, USA, China and Germany). This involved a qualitative approach using semi-structured interviews of BE professionals with experience of advising on commercial properties at risk of flooding. Due to the specific nature of these interviews, a purposive sampling approach was implemented, leading to a sample of 72 interviews across the five international locations. Findings Perceived barriers were linked to regulatory issues, a shortage of suitably experienced professionals, a lack of formal guidance and insurance requirements. BE professionals defined their roles differently in each case study in relation to these factors and stressed the need for closer collaboration among the various disciplines and indeed the other key stakeholders (i.e. insurers, loss adjusters and contractors). A shortage of knowledgeable experts caused by a lack of formal training, and education was a common challenge highlighted in all locations. Originality/value The research is unique in providing an international perspective on issues affecting BE professionals in providing robust and impartial advice on commercial property at risk of flooding. While acknowledging the existence of local flood conditions, regulatory frameworks and insurance regimes, the results indicate some recurring themes, indicating a lack of general flood risk education and training across all five case study countries. Learning across case studies coupled with appropriate policy development could contribute toward improved skills development and more consistent integration of BE professionals within future flood risk management practice, policy and strategy.

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3D-hydrodynamic modelling of flood impacts on a building and indoor flooding processes

10.5194/nhess-2015-326 ◽

2016 ◽

Author(s):

B. Gems ◽

B. Mazzorana ◽

T. Hofer ◽

M. Sturm ◽

R. Gabl ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Management ◽

Numerical Modelling ◽

Vulnerability Assessment ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Pure Water ◽

Flood Plain ◽

Flood Risk Management ◽

Building Envelope ◽

Flood Hazards ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Given the current challenges in flood risk management and vulnerability assessment of buildings exposed to flood hazards, three-dimensional numerical modelling of torrential floods and its interaction with buildings are presented. By means of a case study application, the FLOW-3D software is applied to the lower reach of the Rio Vallarsa torrent in the village of Laives (Italy). A single-family house on the flood plain is thereby considered very detailed and exposed to a 300 yr flood hydrograph. Different building representation scenarios, amongst an entire impervious building envelope and the assumption of fully permeable doors, windows and cellar shafts, are analysed. The modelling results give insight into the flooding process of the building’s interior, the impacting hydrodynamic forces on the exterior and interior walls and, further, quantify the impact of flooding a building on the flow field on the adjacent flood plain. The presented study means a step towards the development of a comprehensive physical vulnerability assessment framework. For pure water floods, it shows possibilities and limits of advanced numerical modelling techniques within flood risk management and, thereby, the planning of local structural protection measures.

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3-D hydrodynamic modelling of flood impacts on a building and indoor flooding processes

Natural Hazards and Earth System Science ◽

10.5194/nhess-16-1351-2016 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 16 (6) ◽

pp. 1351-1368 ◽

Cited By ~ 13

Author(s):

Bernhard Gems ◽

Bruno Mazzorana ◽

Thomas Hofer ◽

Michael Sturm ◽

Roman Gabl ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Risk Management ◽

Numerical Modelling ◽

Vulnerability Assessment ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Pure Water ◽

Flood Plain ◽

Flood Risk Management ◽

Building Envelope ◽

Flood Hazards ◽

The Impact

Abstract. Given the current challenges in flood risk management and vulnerability assessment of buildings exposed to flood hazards, this study presents three-dimensional numerical modelling of torrential floods and its interaction with buildings. By means of a case study application, the FLOW-3D software is applied to the lower reach of the Rio Vallarsa torrent in the village of Laives (Italy). A single-family house on the flood plain is therefore considered in detail. It is exposed to a 300-year flood hydrograph. Different building representation scenarios, including an entire impervious building envelope and the assumption of fully permeable doors, light shafts and windows, are analysed. The modelling results give insight into the flooding process of the building's interior, the impacting hydrodynamic forces on the exterior and interior walls, and further, they quantify the impact of the flooding of a building on the flow field on the surrounding flood plain. The presented study contributes to the development of a comprehensive physics-based vulnerability assessment framework. For pure water floods, this study presents the possibilities and limits of advanced numerical modelling techniques within flood risk management and, thereby, the planning of local structural protection measures.

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Analysis of the Public Flood Risk Perception in a Flood-Prone City: The Case of Jingdezhen City in China

Water ◽

10.3390/w10111577 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 10 (11) ◽

pp. 1577 ◽

Cited By ~ 17

Author(s):

Zhiqiang Wang ◽

Huimin Wang ◽

Jing Huang ◽

Jinle Kang ◽

Dawei Han

Keyword(s):

Risk Perception ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Decision Makers ◽

Impact Factors ◽

Medium Size ◽

Strongly Correlated ◽

The Public ◽

Flood Experience ◽

The Impact ◽

Flood Risk Perception

Understanding and improving public flood risk perception is conducive to the implementation of effective flood risk management and disaster reduction policies. In the flood-prone city of Jingdezhen, flood disaster is one of the most destructive natural hazards to impact the society and economy. However, few studies have been attempted to focus on public flood risk perception in the small and medium-size city in China, like Jingdezhen. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the public flood risk perception in four districts of Jingdezhen and examine the related influencing factors. A questionnaire survey of 719 randomly sampled respondents was conducted in 16 subdistricts of Jingdezhen. Analysis of variance was conducted to identify the correlations between the impact factors and public flood risk perception. Then, the flood risk perception differences between different groups under the same impact factor were compared. The results indicated that the socio-demographic characteristics of the respondents (except occupation), flood experience, flood knowledge education, flood protection responsibility, and trust in government were strongly correlated with flood risk perception. The findings will help decision makers to develop effective flood risk communication strategies and flood risk reduction policies.

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Flood risk insurance, mitigation and commercial property valuation

Property Management ◽

10.1108/pm-11-2018-0058 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 37 (4) ◽

pp. 512-528 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Jessica Elizabeth Lamond ◽

Namrata Bhattacharya-Mis ◽

Faith Ka Shun Chan ◽

Heidi Kreibich ◽

Burrell Montz ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Built Environment ◽

Flood Risk ◽

Risk Mitigation ◽

Risk Information ◽

Illustrative Case ◽

Content Type ◽

Commercial Property ◽

Study Approach ◽

Illustrative Case Study ◽

The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to understand how built environment professionals approach the valuation of flood risk in commercial property markets and whether insurance promotes mitigation in different insurance and risk management regimes, draw common conclusions and highlight opportunities to transfer learning. Design/methodology/approach An illustrative case study approach involving literature search and 72 interviews with built environment professionals, across five countries in four continents. Findings Common difficulties arise in availability, reliability and interpretation of risk information, and in evaluating the impact of mitigation. These factors, coupled with the heterogeneous nature of commercial property, lack of transactional data and remote investors, make valuation of risk particularly challenging in the sector. Insurance incentives for risk mitigation are somewhat effective where employed and could be further developed, however, the influence of insurance is hampered by lack of insurance penetration and underinsurance. Research limitations/implications Further investigation of the means to improve uptake of insurance and to develop insurance incentives for mitigation is recommended. Practical implications Flood risk is inconsistently reflected in commercial property values leading to lack of mitigation and vulnerability of investments to future flooding. Improvements are needed in: access to adequate risk information; professional skills in valuing risk; guidance on valuation of flood risk; and regulation to ensure adequate consideration of risk and mitigation options. Originality/value The research addresses a global issue that threatens local, and regional economies through loss of utility, business profitability and commercial property value. It is unique in consulting professionals across international markets.

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