scholarly journals STOCK RETURNS, VOLATILITY AND MEAN REVERSION IN EMERGING AND DEVELOPED FINANCIAL MARKETS

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (3) ◽  
pp. 1149-1177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rizwan Raheem AHMED ◽  
Jolita VVEINHARDT ◽  
Dalia ŠTREIMIKIENĖ ◽  
Saghir Pervaiz GHAURI
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Mean Reversion ◽  
Conditional Variance ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Developed Stock Markets

The objective of this research is to measure and examine volatilities between important emerging and developed stock markets and to ascertain a relationship between volatilities and stock returns. This research paper also analyses the Mean reversion phenomenon in emerging and developed stock markets. For this purpose, seven emerging markets and five developed markets were considered. Descriptive statistics showed that the emerging markets have higher returns with the higher risk-return trade-off. In contrast, developed markets have low annual returns with a low risk-return trade-off. Correlation analysis indicated the significant positive correlation among the developed markets, but emerging and developed markets have shown relatively insignificant correlation. Results of ARCH and GARCH revealed that the value of likelihood statistics ratio is large, that entails the GARCH (1,1) model is a lucrative depiction of daily return pattern, that effectively and efficiently capturing the orderly reliance of volatility. The findings of the study showed that the estimate ‘β’ coefficients given in conditional variance equation are significantly higher than the ‘α’, this state of affair entails that bigger market surprises tempt comparatively small revision in future volatility. Lastly, the diligence of the conditional variance estimated by α + β is significant and proximate to integrated GARCH (1,1) model, thus, this indicates, the existing evidence is also pertinent in order to forecast the future volatility. The results signified that the sum of GARCH (1,1) coefficients for all the equity returns’ is less than 1 that is an important condition for mean reversion, as the sum gets closer to 1, hence the Mean reversion process gets slower for all the emerging and developed stock markets.

scholarly journals Institutional Environment and IPO Strategy: A Study of ChiNext in China

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 399-430 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing Zhang ◽  
Wei Zhang ◽  
Andreas Schwab ◽  
Sipei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Institutional Environment ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Investment Timing ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
Investment Returns ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Public Offering

ABSTRACTTaking an institution-based view, we investigate how entrepreneurs respond to immature regulatory environments in order to be listed on stock markets in countries with an emerging economy. Unlike stock markets in developed countries, in emerging markets, gaining government approval for listing is a critical and more unpredictable process for entrepreneurs. Hence, entrepreneurs who are preparing for a public offering might give substantially discounted shares to venture capital (VC) investors. This will lead to higher investment returns in pre-IPO deals than those at earlier stages, which distorts the risk-return tradeoff found in developed markets. In particular, the VC investors affiliated with powerful organizations that can promise entrepreneurs preferential access to stock market gatekeepers will gain even higher pre-IPO investment returns. The associated additional institutional rents earned by VC investors, however, are expected to decrease over time, as the stock markets mature. Related hypotheses with regard to the investment timing, VC firm affiliations with government agencies, securities traders, and universities are tested using data from ChiNext in China (2009–2013). This study highlights that institutional factors impact the behavior of participants in emerging markets. It extends current theories derived almost exclusively from developed markets.

scholarly journals SPEED OF MEAN REVERSION: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF KSE, LSE AND ISE INDICES

2018 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 1435-1452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rana Imroze Palwasha ◽  
Nawaz Ahmad ◽  
Rizwan Raheem Ahmed ◽  
Jolita Vveinhardt ◽  
Dalia Štreimikienė
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Analysis ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Research Study ◽  
Mean Reversion ◽  
Reversion Rate ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
The Mean

The purpose of this study is to determine the presence of mean reversion in the stock markets indices of Pakistan, moreover, to measure, and compare the speed of mean reversion of the stock markets indices across Pakistan. In order to carry out the research study, the daily data of three stock indices of Pakistan such as: KSE-100, LSE-25 and ISE-10 are collected from 2003 to 2014. After the application of tests such as ARCH and GARCH, it was found that returns series of KSE-100, LSE-25 and ISE-10 indices exhibit mean reversion, indicating that the returns revert back to their historical value after reaching an extreme value. Further, the mean reversion rate shows that KSE-100 index has the slowest mean reversion, however, the ISE-10 index has the fastest mean reversion among the three indices. Therefore, the results of the study concluded that KSE-100 index, due to the slowest mean reversion rate has higher volatility over a longer period of time. On the contrary, since, ISE-10 index has exhibited the fastest mean reversion with the lowest volatility as compared to others. But due to fast mean reversion rate, it will help investors to gain profits over a shorter period of time. Thus, it can be recommended that the investor willing to bear the risk of time and looking for long-term investment should invest in KSE-100 index. However, investors looking for higher profits in a shorter period can invest in the ISE-10 index but with higher risk-returns trade-off.

Stock Returns and Volatility: Evidence from Select Emerging Markets

2009 ◽  
Vol 12 (04) ◽  
pp. 567-592 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ravinder Kumar Arora ◽  
Himadri Das ◽  
Pramod Kumar Jain
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Leverage Effect ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
Return Distributions ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Return Data

This paper investigates the behavior of stock returns and volatility in 10 emerging markets and compares them with those of developed markets under different measures of frequency (daily, weekly, monthly and annual) over the period January 1, 2002 to December 31, 2006. The ratios of mean return to volatility for emerging markets are found to be higher than those of developed markets. Sample statistics for stock returns of all emerging and developed markets indicate that return distributions are not normal and return volatility shows clustering. In most cases, GARCH (1, 1) specification is adequate to describe the stock return volatility. The significant lag terms in the mean equation of GARCH specification depend on the frequency of the return data. The presence of leverage effect in volatility behavior is examined using the TAR-GARCH model and the evidence indicates that is not present across all markets under all measures of frequency. Its presence in different markets depends on the measure of frequency of stock return data.

Emerging Markets: A Disaggregated Perspective on the Gains from Investing Internationally

1999 ◽  
Vol 02 (01) ◽  
pp. 99-124 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. G. M. Fifield ◽  
A. A. Lonie ◽  
D. M. Power ◽  
C. D. Sinclair
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Market Value ◽  
International Diversification ◽  
Emerging Stock Markets ◽  
Geographical Spread ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
Industrial Mix

Using weekly disaggregated returns data for the top twenty shares, by market value, from seventeen emerging markets over the period 1991–1996, this paper investigates the potential gains from international diversification into these markets. The paper also assesses whether these gains could have been achieved on an ex-ante basis. Finally, the paper quantifies the importance of country and industry factors in emerging market stock returns. The findings suggest that (i) substantial benefits exist from investing in emerging stock markets and (ii) these gains accrue more from the geographical spread than from the industrial mix of the equities included in the portfolio.

scholarly journals How to Measure Illiquidity on European Emerging Stock Markets?

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 67-81
Author(s):  
Jelena Vidović ◽  
Tea Poklepović ◽  
Zdravka Aljinović
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Portfolio Investment ◽  
Turn On ◽  
Emerging Stock Markets ◽  
Illiquid Markets ◽  
Developed Stock Markets ◽  
Relative Change ◽  
Real Challenge ◽  
Daily Returns

Abstract Background: Liquidity is, in practice of portfolio investment, an important attribute of stocks and measuring illiquidity presents a real challenge for researchers, primarily on developed stock markets. Moreover, there is a lack of research dealing with (il)liquidity on emerging markets. In the paper, the problem of applicability and validity of two well-known illiquidity measures, ILLIQ and TURN, on European emerging markets is observed. Objectives: The paper has two main purposes. The first is to test the relative performance of the two selected illiquidity measures in terms of their validity on European emerging stock markets. The second is to propose a new and improved illiquidity measure named Relative Change in Volume (RCV). Methods/Approach: Using daily returns and traded volumes for 12 stocks which are constituents of stock indices on seven observed markets, ILLIQ and TURN along with the new proposed measure are calculated and tested based on correlation with return. All measures are tested and proposed using the single stock approach. Results: It is shown that ILLIQ and TURN are not appropriate for seven observed markets. The measures do not follow the obligatory request that returns increase in illiquidity while RCV has the ability of taking into account the pressure of big differences in volume on return. RCV gives satisfactory results, making clear the distinction between liquid and illiquid stocks and between liquid and illiquid markets. Conclusions: The proposed measure potentially has important implications in illiquidity measurement in general, and not only for investors on emerging stock markets.

scholarly journals LIQUIDITY RISK AND STOCK RETURN IN LATIN AMERICAN EMERGING MARKETS

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Javier Vasquez-Tejos ◽  
Prosper Lamothe Fernandez
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Liquidity Risk ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Investment Strategies ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
The Impact

This study analyzes the impact of liquidity risk on stock returns in four Latin American markets (Chile, Columbia, Mexico, and Peru) between January 1998 and July 2018. Several previous studies have focused on measuring this effect in developed markets and a few in emerging markets, such as Latin American stock markets. In the present study, five liquidity risk measures with a multiple regression model; three have been widely used in previous studies and two were from recently proposed measures. We found evidence of an inverse relationship between liquidity risk and stock performance, which indicates that there exist rewards for investing in less liquid positions and therefore originate new investment strategies. In general, lesser developed or smaller markets have a disadvantage for this type of study, due to lack of access to historical information on stock purchase and sales.

scholarly journals Stock returns and liquidity risk in Chile

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Javier Vásquez-Tejos ◽  
Hernán Pape-Larre ◽  
Juan Martín Ireta-Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Multiple Regression ◽  
Risk Measures ◽  
Liquidity Risk ◽  
Multiple Regression Model ◽  
Developed Markets ◽  
The Impact

This study analyzes the impact of liquidity risk on the return of shares in the Chilean stock market, during the period from January 2000 to July 2018. A large number of studies have focused on measuring this effect in developed markets and few in emerging markets, especially the Chilean one. To do this, we used 6 risk measures in a multiple regression model; four widely used in previous studies and two new proposed measures. We found evidence of the significance of the liquidity risk over the stock return.RESUMENEste estudio analiza el impacto del riesgo de liquidez sobre el retorno de las acciones en el mercado bursátil chileno, durante el periodo de enero de 2000 hasta julio de 2018. Gran cantidad de estudios se han centrado en medir este efecto en los mercados desarrollados y pocos en mercados emergentes, especialmente el chileno. Para ello, se utilizó un modelo de regresión múltiple 6 medidas de riesgo; cuatro utilizadas ampliamente en estudios anteriores y dos medidas nuevas propuestas. Encontramos evidencia de significancia del riesgo de liquidez sobre el retorno accionario.RESUMOEste estudo analisa o impacto do risco de liquidez no retorno das ações no mercado de ações chileno, durante o período de janeiro de 2000 a julho de 2018. Muitos estudos têm se concentrado em medir este efeito em mercados desenvolvidos e poucos nos mercados emergentes, especialmente o chileno. Para isso, utilizamos 6 medidas de risco em um modelo de regressão múltipla; quatro amplamente utilizados em estudos anteriores e duas novas medidas propostas. Encontramos evidências da significância do risco de liquidez sobre o retorno das ações.  

Risk-Reward Trade-Off and Volatility Performance of Islamic Versus Conventional Stock Indices: Global Evidence

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (01) ◽  
pp. 2050002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ahmad Abu-Alkheil ◽  
Walayet A. Khan ◽  
Bhavik Parikh
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
Risk Return ◽  
Stock Indices ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
High Return ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Primary Support ◽  
Sortino Ratio ◽  
Global Evidence

In this paper, we compare the performance of Islamic stock indices (ISI) and conventional stock indices (CSI) from FTSE, DJ, MSCI, S&Ps and Jakarta series using common risk-return metrics. The sample consists of 64 ISI and CSI, and covers the period from 2002 to 2017. The majority of the stock indices are from the Pacific Rim countries’ stock markets. Additionally, we employ the GARCH-M model to examine the impact of past volatility on spot returns. Findings suggest that the ISI are less sensitive to the average market movements compared to the CSI, but surprisingly offer similar raw returns suggesting primary support for the low risk-high return paradox. On further examination, results reveal that M2, Omega, Sharpe and Treynor measures indicate that ISI underperform CSI while Jensen’s alpha and Sortino ratio put ISI ahead of CSI. Moreover, findings show that pre-crisis winners (CSI) were losers during the 2008 crisis but subsequently recovered and ended up with higher returns than ISI. Findings also show that the previous volatility of stock returns can be potentially used for predicting future returns.

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