Minding the Gap in Subjective Mortality Estimates

2021 ◽  
pp. jor.2021.1.093
Author(s):  
David Blanchett
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Estimates

scholarly journals Local mortality estimates during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Augusto Cerqua ◽  
Roberta Di Stefano ◽  
Marco Letta ◽  
Sara Miccoli
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Excess Mortality ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Supervised Machine Learning ◽  
Machine Learning Techniques ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Official Method ◽  
Learning Techniques ◽  
Mortality Estimates

AbstractEstimates of the real death toll of the COVID-19 pandemic have proven to be problematic in many countries, Italy being no exception. Mortality estimates at the local level are even more uncertain as they require stringent conditions, such as granularity and accuracy of the data at hand, which are rarely met. The “official” approach adopted by public institutions to estimate the “excess mortality” during the pandemic draws on a comparison between observed all-cause mortality data for 2020 and averages of mortality figures in the past years for the same period. In this paper, we apply the recently developed machine learning control method to build a more realistic counterfactual scenario of mortality in the absence of COVID-19. We demonstrate that supervised machine learning techniques outperform the official method by substantially improving the prediction accuracy of the local mortality in “ordinary” years, especially in small- and medium-sized municipalities. We then apply the best-performing algorithms to derive estimates of local excess mortality for the period between February and September 2020. Such estimates allow us to provide insights about the demographic evolution of the first wave of the pandemic throughout the country. To help improve diagnostic and monitoring efforts, our dataset is freely available to the research community.

Mortality Estimates of an Adult Band-Tailed Pigeon Population in Orgeon

1967 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 519 ◽  
Author(s):  
Howard M. Wight ◽  
Robert U. Mace ◽  
Wesley M. Batterson
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Estimates

Mortality estimates in the elderly: The Belfast experience

Burns ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. S42 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Rashid ◽  
K. Khan ◽  
B. Fogarty ◽  
K. Lowry ◽  
M.F. Khadim
Keyword(s):  
The Elderly ◽  
Mortality Estimates

Influence of errors in natural mortality estimates in cohort analysis

1997 ◽  
Vol 54 (7) ◽  
pp. 1608-1612 ◽  
Author(s):  
G Mertz ◽  
R A Myers
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Similar Pattern ◽  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Transient Behavior ◽  
Natural Mortality ◽  
Exact Formulation ◽  
Fishing Mortality ◽  
Bias Factor ◽  
Special Case ◽  
Mortality Estimates

The accuracy of the estimation of cohort strength from catch data may be greatly degraded if a poor estimate of the natural mortality rate is entered into the calculation. A straightforward, exact formulation for the error in cohort reconstruction due to a misspecified natural mortality rate is presented. The special case of constant fishing mortality is particularly transparent, allowing the error to be segmented into easily interpreted terms. A change in the fishing mortality may result in a distinct hump in the transient behavior of the bias factor, rather than a simple monotonic adjustment. This implies a similar pattern in estimated cohort strength.

scholarly journals Estimating post-release mortality of European sea bass based on experimental angling

2018 ◽  
Vol 75 (4) ◽  
pp. 1483-1495 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wolf-Christian Lewin ◽  
Harry Vincent Strehlow ◽  
Keno Ferter ◽  
Kieran Hyder ◽  
Jan Niemax ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stock Assessment ◽  
Sea Bass ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Experimental Conditions ◽  
European Sea Bass ◽  
Air Exposure ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mortality Estimates ◽  
Country Specific

Abstract European sea bass (Dicentrarchus labrax) is an important target species for recreational and commercial fisheries. In recent years, the spawning stock biomass has declined markedly in some areas, and strict management measures have been introduced. However, the development of appropriate stock assessment and fisheries management has been hampered by a lack of information on post-release mortality. This study investigated post-release mortality of sea bass captured with common recreational fishing gear under experimental conditions in an aquaculture facility over 10 d. Three experiments investigated: (i) the effects of different bait types; (ii) the impact of prolonged air exposure; and (iii) the impact of deep hooking on post-release mortality. By combining the experimental results with country-specific information on sea bass angling practices, estimates of post-release mortality are provided for the northern sea bass stock. No mortality was observed for sea bass captured on artificial baits. The use of natural baits resulted in a mortality of 13.9% (95% CI = 4.7–29.5%), which was associated with deep hooking, hooking injuries, and prolonged air exposure. The use of artificial baits and short air exposure (≤30 s) increased survival probability, whereas deep hooking resulted in 76.5% (95% CI = 50.0–93.2%) mortality. Depending on country-specific angling practices, post-release mortality estimates ranged from 2.8% to 9.1% (mean = 5.0%, 95% CI = 1.7–14.4%) for northern sea bass. Despite these relatively low mortality estimates, post-release mortality should be considered in stock assessments as its cumulative impact may be high. Moreover, post-release mortality can be reduced by implementing species-specific best practice guidelines.

scholarly journals Examining sex differences in the completeness of Peruvian CRVS data and adult mortality estimates

Genus ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 78 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Helena Cruz Castanheira ◽  
José Henrique Costa Monteiro da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Sex Differences ◽  
Sex Difference ◽  
Health Surveys ◽  
Adult Mortality ◽  
Data Sources ◽  
Demographic And Health Surveys ◽  
Death Registration ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Health Related ◽  
Mortality Estimates

AbstractThe production, compilation, and publication of death registration records is complex and usually involves many institutions. Assessing available data and the evolution of the completeness of the data compiled based on demographic techniques and other available data sources is of great importance for countries and for having timely and disaggregated mortality estimates. In this paper, we assess whether it is reasonable, based on the available data, to assume that there is a sex difference in the completeness of male and female death records in Peru in the last 30 years. In addition, we assess how the gap may have evolved with time by applying two-census death distribution methods on health-related registries and analyzing the information from the Demographic and Health Surveys and civil registries. Our findings suggest that there is no significant sex difference in the completeness of male and female health-related registries and, consequently, the sex gap currently observed in adult mortality estimates might be overestimated.

scholarly journals How to measure premature mortality? A proposal combining “relative” and “absolute” approaches

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Mazzuco ◽  
Marc Suhrcke ◽  
Lucia Zanotto
Keyword(s):  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Premature Mortality ◽  
Pivotal Quantity ◽  
Health Measurement ◽  
Premature Deaths ◽  
Intuitive Appeal ◽  
Basic Approaches ◽  
Mortality Estimates ◽  
Country Specific

Abstract Background : the concept of "premature mortality" is at the heart of many national and global health measurement and benchmarking efforts. However, despite the intuitive appeal of its underlying concept, it is far from obvious how to best operationalise it. The previous work offers at least two basic approaches: an absolute and a relative one. The former -- and far more widely used -- sets a unique age threshold (e.g. 65 years), below which deaths are defined as premature. The relative approach derives the share of premature deaths from the country--specific age distribution of deaths in the country of interest. The biggest disadvantage of the absolute approach is that of using a unique, arbitrary threshold for different mortality patterns, while the main disadvantage of the relative approach is that its estimate of premature mortality strongly depends on how the senescent deaths distribution is defined in each country.\\ Method : we propose to overcome some of the downsides of the existing approaches, by combining features of both, using a hierarchical model, in which senescent deaths distribution is held constant for each country as a pivotal quantity and the premature mortality distribution is allowed to vary across countries. In this way, premature mortality estimates become more comparable across countries with similar characteristics.\\ Results : the proposed hierarchical models provides results which lead to shared conclusions researchers developed analyzing the specific countries. In particular, we find a relatively high premature mortality for United States and Denmark. Conclusions : while our hybrid approach overcomes some of the problems of the previous measures, some issues needs further work. In particular the choice of the group of countries a given country is assigned to and the choice of the benchmarks within the groups. Hence our proposed method, combined with further study addressing the clustering issue, could provide a valid alternative way to measure and compare premature mortality across countries.

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