scholarly journals The implementation of stabilization policy

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 677-716
Author(s):  
Olivier Loisel
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Local Equilibrium ◽  
Policy Instrument ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Stabilization Policy ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Business Cycle Model ◽  
Feasible Path

In locally linearized dynamic stochastic rational‐expectations models, I introduce the concepts of feasible paths (paths on which the policy instrument can be expressed as a function of the policymaker's observation set) and implementable paths (paths that can be obtained, in a minimally robust way, as the unique local equilibrium under a policy‐instrument rule consistent with the policymaker's observation set). I show that, for relevant observation sets, the optimal feasible path under monetary policy can be non‐implementable in the new Keynesian model, while constant‐debt feasible paths under tax policy are always implementable in the real business cycle model. The first result sounds a note of caution about one of the main lessons of the new Keynesian literature, namely the importance for central banks to track some key unobserved exogenous rates of interest, while the second result restores to some extent the role of income or labor‐income taxes in safely stabilizing public debt. For any given implementable path, I show how to design arithmetically a policy‐instrument rule consistent with the policymaker's observation set and implementing this path as the robustly unique local equilibrium.

scholarly journals THE MISSPECIFICATION OF EXPECTATIONS IN NEW KEYNESIAN MODELS: A DSGE-VAR APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 974-1007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen J. Cole ◽  
Fabio Milani
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Model Misspecification ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Dynamic Interactions ◽  
Expectations Hypothesis ◽  
Expectations Formation ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
New Keynesian Models ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

This paper tests the ability of New Keynesian models to match the data regarding a key channel for monetary transmission: the dynamic interactions between macroeconomic variables and their corresponding expectations. We exploit survey expectations data and adopt a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE)-VAR approach to assess the extent and sources of model misspecification. The results point to serious misspecification in the expectations-formation side of the DSGE model. The rational expectations hypothesis is primarily responsible for the model's failure to capture the co-movements between observed macroeconomic expectations and realizations. Alternative models of expectations formation help partially reconcile the New Keynesian model with the data.

scholarly journals On the Limits of Macroprudential Policy

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcin Kolasa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Output Volatility ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Collateral Constraints ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Additional Stabilization ◽  
The Interest Rate

AbstractThis paper studies how macroprudential policy tools applied to the housing market can complement the interest rate-based monetary policy in achieving one additional stabilization objective, defined as keeping either economic activity or credit at some exogenous (and possibly time-varying) levels. We show analytically in a canonical New Keynesian model with housing and collateral constraints that using the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, tax on credit or tax on property as additional policy instruments does not resolve the inflation-output volatility tradeoff. Perfect targeting of inflation and credit with monetary and macroprudential policy is possible only if the role of housing debt in the economy is sufficiently small. The identified limits to the considered policies are related to their predominantly intertemporal impact on decisions made by financially constrained agents, making them poor complements to monetary policy, which also operates at an intertemporal margin. These limits can be overcome if macroprudential policy is instead designed such that it sufficiently redistributes income between savers and borrowers.

Monetary Policy and Asset Price Gap Signal Technology in a New Keynesian Framework

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Mislin
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Nominal Rate ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Fundamental Value ◽  
Output Gaps

Abstract This article develops a New Keynesian model in which the inflation rate depends on the present value of future output gaps and asset prices gaps. The latter follows a price adjustment process. These asset price gaps are driven by ‛asset price gap signal technology’, a measure of exponentially distributed asset price gaps with a signalling mechanism. Within a dynamic stochastic optimisation approach, I identify a policy rule for the central bank in which the asset price gap the difference between the actual asset price at time t to its fundamental value plays a crucial role in determining the nominal rate of interest.

scholarly journals The State of New Keynesian Economics: A Partial Assessment

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 87-112 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jordi Galí
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Academic Research ◽  
The State ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Future Research ◽  
New Keynesian Model ◽  
Keynesian Economics ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

In August 2007, when the first signs emerged of what would come to be the most damaging global financial crisis since the Great Depression, the New Keynesian paradigm was dominant in macroeconomics. Ten years later, tons of ammunition has been fired against modern macroeconomics in general, and against dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models that build on the New Keynesian framework in particular. Those criticisms notwithstanding, the New Keynesian model arguably remains the dominant framework in the classroom, in academic research, and in policy modeling. In fact, one can argue that over the past ten years the scope of New Keynesian economics has kept widening, by encompassing a growing number of phenomena that are analyzed using its basic framework, as well as by addressing some of the criticisms raised against it. The present paper takes stock of the state of New Keynesian economics by reviewing some of its main insights and by providing an overview of some recent developments. In particular, I discuss some recent work on two very active research programs: the implications of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates and the interaction of monetary policy and household heterogeneity. Finally, I discuss what I view as some of the main shortcomings of the New Keynesian model and possible areas for future research.

scholarly journals Walk on the Wild Side: Temporarily Unstable Paths and Multiplicative Sunspots

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 (5) ◽  
pp. 1805-1842 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guido Ascari ◽  
Paolo Bonomolo ◽  
Hedibert F. Lopes
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
New Keynesian Model ◽  
Inflation Dynamics ◽  
Generalized Model ◽  
Keynesian Model

We propose a generalization of the rational expectations framework to allow for temporarily unstable paths. Our approach introduces multiplicative sunspot shocks and it yields drifting parameters and stochastic volatility. Then, we provide an econometric strategy to estimate this generalized model on the data. The methodology allows the data to choose between different possible alternatives: determinacy, indeterminacy, and temporary instability. We apply our methodology to US inflation dynamics in the 1970s through the lens of a simple New Keynesian model. When temporarily unstable paths are allowed, the data unambiguously select them to explain the stagflation period in the 1970s. (JEL D84, E12, E31, E32, E52)

Solving the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Application in China

2015 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 508-513
Author(s):  
Shangfeng Zhang ◽  
◽  
Yuying Wang ◽  
Bing Xu ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Stochastic Volatility ◽  
Equilibrium Model ◽  
Order Approximation ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Cycle Model ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Business Cycle Model

A first-order approximation technique is not suited to handle issues such as welfare comparison, time-varying variance. Following Schmitt-Grohe and Uribe [1], in this paper, we derive a second-order approximation to estimate the dynamic stochastic equilibrium model with stochastic volatility, to capture the different impacts of the level shocks and the volatility shocks. Furthermore, the paper presents an application of standard quantitative New Keynesian business cycle model, and the results shows the negative effects of stochastic volatility shocks. Furthermore, the paper presents an application of standard quantitative New Keynesian business cycle model, and the empirical results find that the level shocks have positive effects on consumption, investment and output, while the volatility shocks have negative effects on consumption, investment and output.

scholarly journals Should Inequality Factor into Central Banks' Decisions?

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (196) ◽  
Author(s):  
Niels-Jakob Hansen ◽  
Alessandro Lin ◽  
Rui Mano
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Potential Role ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
New Keynesian Model ◽  
Taylor Rules ◽  
Keynesian Model

Inequality is increasingly a concern. Fiscal and structural policies are well-understood mitigators. However, less is known about the potential role of monetary policy. This paper investigates how inequality matters for monetary policy within a tractable Two-Agent New Keynesian model that captures important dimensions of inequality. We find some support for making inequality an explicit target for monetary policy, particularly if central banks follow standard Taylor rules.

scholarly journals Thai Monetary Policy Under the Inflation Targeting Regime

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nipit Wongpunya
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Steady State ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
State Level ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Trend Inflation ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

Abstract This paper explores the macroeconomic effects of inflation targeting in Thailand. Furthermore, this study uses a nonlinear new Keynesian model under the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework with price indexation to analyze the monetary policy under inflation targeting in Thailand. The model is estimated using a Bayesian statistic for the Thai economy. It shows that inflation is more stabilized and inflation persistence has fallen after adopting inflation targeting. The paper also indicates that the Bank of Thailand is more responsive to the deviation of inflation from its target using inflation targeting. The key monetary mechanism exists through changes in the real interest rate which affect aggregate demand. It is worth noting that the larger the inflation targeting rate is, the lower the steady state output from its steady state level given no trend inflation.

scholarly journals The effect of central bank credibility on forward guidance in an estimated New Keynesian model

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-39
Author(s):  
Stephen J. Cole ◽  
Enrique Martínez-García
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Rational Expectations ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
New Keynesian Model ◽  
Survey Of Professional Forecasters ◽  
Forward Guidance ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
The Us ◽  
Imperfect Credibility ◽  
Central Bank Credibility

Abstract This paper examines the effectiveness of forward guidance shocks in the US. We estimate a New Keynesian model with imperfect central bank credibility and heterogeneous expectations using Bayesian methods and survey data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The results provide important takeaways: (1) The estimated credibility of the Fed’s forward guidance announcements is relatively high, but anticipation effects are attenuated. Accordingly, output and inflation do not respond as favorably as in the fully credible counterfactual. (2) The so-called “forward guidance puzzle” arises partly from the unrealistically large responses of macroeconomic variables to forward guidance under perfect credibility and homogeneous fully informed rational expectations, assumptions which are found to be jointly inconsistent with the observed US data. (3) Imperfect credibility provides a plausible explanation for the empirical evidence of forecasting error predictability based on forecasting disagreement found in the SPF data. Thus, we show that accounting for imperfect credibility and forecasting disagreements is important to understand the formation of expectations and the transmission mechanism of forward guidance.

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