On the Comparison of Quantitative Predictabilities of Different Financial Instruments

2016 ◽  
pp. 282-298 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adil Gürsel Karaçor ◽  
Turan Erman Erkan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Model ◽  
Investment Decisions ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
Financial Instruments ◽  
Past Data ◽  
Artificial Neural

Huge amount of liquidity flows into a number of financial instruments such as stocks, commodities, currencies, futures, and so on every day. Investment decisions are mainly based on predicting the future movements of the instrument(s) in question. However, high frequency financial data are somewhat hard to model or predict. It would be valuable information for the investor if he or she knew which financial instruments were quantitatively more predictable. The data used in the model consisted of intraday frequencies covering the period between 1993 and 2013. An Artificial Neural Network model using Radial Basis Functions containing only past data of three different types of instruments (stocks, currencies, and commodities) to predict future high values on six different frequencies was applied. A total of 72 different artificial neural networks representing 12 different instruments were trained five times each, and their prediction performances were recorded on average. Considerably clear distinctions were observed on prediction performances of different financial instruments.

scholarly journals Bias Correction Method Based on Artificial Neural Networks for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 38
Author(s):  
Adrián Fuentes-Barrios ◽  
Maibys Sierra-Lorenzo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Model ◽  
Correction Method ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Artificial Neural

The nowcasting and very short-term prediction system (SisPI, for its acronym in Spanish) is among the tools used by the National Meteorological Service of Cuba for the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). SisPI uses the WRF model as the core of its forecasts and one of the challenges to overcome is to improve the precision of the QPF. With this purpose, in this work we present the results of the application of a bias correction method based on artificial neural networks. The method is applied to the highest-resolution domain of SisPI (3 km), and the correction is made from the precipitation estimation of the GPM satellite product. Results shows higher correlation with the artificial neural network model in relation to the values predicted by SisPI (0.76 and 0.34, respectively). The mean square error when applying the artificial neural network model is 3.69, improving the performance of SisPI by 6.78. In general, the bias correction has a good ability to correct the precipitation forecast provided by SisPI, being less evident in cases where precipitation is reported and SisPI is not capable of forecasting it. In cases of overestimation by SisPI (which happens quite frequently), the correction achieves the best results.

scholarly journals Do Artificial Neural Networks Always Provide High Prediction Performance? An Experimental Study on the Insufficiency of Artificial Neural Networks in Capacitance Prediction of the 6H-SiC/MEH-PPV/Al diode

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andaç Batur Çolak ◽  
Tamer Güzel
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Network Model ◽  
Neural Network Model ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Model ◽  
Organic Polymer ◽  
High Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural

Abstract Recently, studies on artificial neural network model, which is one of the most effective artificial intelligence tools applied in many fields, reported that artificial neural networks are tools that offer very high prediction performance compared to traditional models. In this study, an artificial neural network model has been developed to predict the capacitance voltage outputs of the 6H-SiC/MEH-PPV/Al diode with organic polymer interface, depending on the frequency. In the multi-layer network model developed with a total of 186 experimental data, 70% of the data used for training, 15% for validation and 15% for testing. The prediction performances of three different artificial neural networks developed with 5, 10 and 15 neurons in their hidden layers have been analyzed. The results obtained, for the first time in the literature, show that the artificial neural network model cannot predict the capacitance voltage outputs of the organic polymer interface 6H-SiC/MEH-PPV/Al diode depending on the frequency.

scholarly journals Optimal Artificial Neural Network Type Selection Method for Usage in Smart House Systems

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 47
Author(s):  
Vasyl Teslyuk ◽  
Artem Kazarian ◽  
Natalia Kryvinska ◽  
Ivan Tsmots
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Input Data ◽  
Optimization Criterion ◽  
Fuzzy Input ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Smart House ◽  
Artificial Neural

In the process of the “smart” house systems work, there is a need to process fuzzy input data. The models based on the artificial neural networks are used to process fuzzy input data from the sensors. However, each artificial neural network has a certain advantage and, with a different accuracy, allows one to process different types of data and generate control signals. To solve this problem, a method of choosing the optimal type of artificial neural network has been proposed. It is based on solving an optimization problem, where the optimization criterion is an error of a certain type of artificial neural network determined to control the corresponding subsystem of a “smart” house. In the process of learning different types of artificial neural networks, the same historical input data are used. The research presents the dependencies between the types of neural networks, the number of inner layers of the artificial neural network, the number of neurons on each inner layer, the error of the settings parameters calculation of the relative expected results.

scholarly journals FEATURES OF DIAGNOSTIC ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS FOR HYBRID EXPERT SYSTEMS

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 ◽  
pp. 36-46
Author(s):  
S. KONOVALOV ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Expert Systems ◽  
Technical System ◽  
Bulletin Board ◽  
Confidence Factor ◽  
Complex Technical System ◽  
Artificial Neural

In the proposed article, various methods of constructing an artificial neural network as one of the components of a hybrid expert system for diagnosis were investigated. A review of foreign literature in recent years was conducted, where hybrid expert systems were considered as an integral part of complex technical systems in the field of security. The advantages and disadvantages of artificial neural networks are listed, and the main problems in creating hybrid expert systems for diagnostics are indicated, proving the relevance of further development of artificial neural networks for hybrid expert systems. The approaches to the analysis of natural language sentences, which are used for the work of hybrid expert systems with artificial neural networks, are considered. A bulletin board is shown, its structure and principle of operation are described. The structure of the bulletin board is divided into levels and sublevels. At sublevels, a confidence factor is applied. The dependence of the values of the confidence factor on the fulfillment of a particular condition is shown. The links between the levels and sublevels of the bulletin board are also described. As an artificial neural network architecture, the «key-threshold» model is used, the rule of neuron operation is shown. In addition, an artificial neural network has the property of training, based on the application of the penalty property, which is able to calculate depending on the accident situation. The behavior of a complex technical system, as well as its faulty states, are modeled using a model that describes the structure and behavior of a given system. To optimize the data of a complex technical system, an evolutionary algorithm is used to minimize the objective function. Solutions to the optimization problem consist of Pareto solution vectors. Optimization and training tasks are solved by using the Hopfield network. In general, a hybrid expert system is described using semantic networks, which consist of vertices and edges. The reference model of a complex technical system is stored in the knowledge base and updated during the acquisition of new knowledge. In an emergency, or about its premise, with the help of neural networks, a search is made for the cause and the control action necessary to eliminate the accident. The considered approaches, interacting with each other, can improve the operation of diagnostic artificial neural networks in the case of emergency management, showing more accurate data in a short time. In addition, the use of such a network for analyzing the state of health, as well as forecasting based on diagnostic data using the example of a complex technical system, is presented.

scholarly journals An artificial neural network identifies glyphosate-impacted brackish communities based on 16S rRNA amplicon MiSeq read counts

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
René Janßen ◽  
Jakob Zabel ◽  
Uwe von Lukas ◽  
Matthias Labrenz
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Environmental Monitoring ◽  
Microbial Communities ◽  
List Type ◽  
Neural Net ◽  
Next Generation ◽  
Artificial Neural

AbstractArtificial neural networks can be trained on complex data sets to detect, predict, or model specific aspects. Aim of this study was to train an artificial neural network to support environmental monitoring efforts in case of a contamination event by detecting induced changes towards the microbial communities. The neural net was trained on taxonomic cluster count tables obtained via next-generation amplicon sequencing of water column samples originating from a lab microcosm incubation experiment conducted over 140 days to determine the effects of the herbicide glyphosate on succession within brackish-water microbial communities. Glyphosate-treated assemblages were classified correctly; a subsetting approach identified the clusters primarily responsible for this, permitting the reduction of input features. This study demonstrates the potential of artificial neural networks to predict indicator species in cases of glyphosate contamination. The results could empower the development of environmental monitoring strategies with applications limited to neither glyphosate nor amplicon sequence data.Highlight bullet pointsAn artificial neural net was able to identify glyphosate-affected microbial community assemblages based on next generation sequencing dataDecision-relevant taxonomic clusters can be identified by a stochastically subsetting approachJust a fraction of present clusters is needed for classificationFiltering of input data improves classification

scholarly journals A single layer artificial neural network type architecture with molecular engineered bacteria for reversible and irreversible computing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kathakali Sarkar ◽  
Deepro Bonnerjee ◽  
Rajkamal Srivastava ◽  
Sangram Bagh
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Basic Concept ◽  
Single Layer ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Engineered Bacteria ◽  
Network Type

Here, we adapted the basic concept of artificial neural networks (ANN) and experimentally demonstrate a broadly applicable single layer ANN type architecture with molecular engineered bacteria to perform complex irreversible...

Forecasting Stock Returns with Artificial Neural Networks

2011 ◽  
pp. 47-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Suraphan Thawornwong ◽  
David Enke
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Network Architectures ◽  
Network Applications ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Neural Network Applications

During the last few years there has been growing literature on applications of artificial neural networks to business and financial domains. In fact, a great deal of attention has been placed in the area of stock return forecasting. This is due to the fact that once artificial neural network applications are successful, monetary rewards will be substantial. Many studies have reported promising results in successfully applying various types of artificial neural network architectures for predicting stock returns. This chapter reviews and discusses various neural network research methodologies used in 45 journal articles that attempted to forecast stock returns. Modeling techniques and suggestions from the literature are also compiled and addressed. The results show that artificial neural networks are an emerging and promising computational technology that will continue to be a challenging tool for future research.

Artificial Neural Network for Solving the Inventory Control Problem in Fuzzy Environments

2021 ◽  
pp. 126-143
Author(s):  
Mostafijur Rahaman ◽  
Sankar Prasad Mondal ◽  
Shariful Alam
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Differential Equation ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Inventory Control ◽  
Solution Procedure ◽  
Control Problems ◽  
Fuzzy Environment ◽  
Artificial Neural

In this chapter, different inventory control problems are formulated in fuzzy environment and solved by artificial neural network. Due to present the non-linearity associated with the differential equation in fuzzy environment, the solution procedure may be very complicated. To avoid the situation, artificial neural networks play an important role. In this chapter, different inventory control problems are formulated in fuzzy environment and solved by artificial neural network. Due to present the non-linearity associated with the differential equation in fuzzy environment, the solution procedure may be very complicated. To avoid the situation, artificial neural networks play an important role.

Artificial Neural Networks

2011 ◽  
pp. 222-243
Author(s):  
Joarder Kamruzzaman ◽  
Ruhul Sarker
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Network Applications ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Neural Network Applications

The primary aim of this chapter is to present an overview of the artificial neural network basics and operation, architectures, and the major algorithms used for training the neural network models. As can be seen in subsequent chapters, neural networks have made many useful contributions to solve theoretical and practical problems in finance and manufacturing areas. The secondary aim here is therefore to provide a brief review of artificial neural network applications in finance and manufacturing areas.

Fundamental Categories of Artificial Neural Networks

2021 ◽  
pp. 30-64
Author(s):  
Arunaben Prahladbhai Gurjar ◽  
Shitalben Bhagubhai Patel
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Network ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Mathematical Operation ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Classification Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Fundamental Categories

The new era of the world uses artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning. The combination of AI and machine learning is called artificial neural network (ANN). Artificial neural network can be used as hardware or software-based components. Different topology and learning algorithms are used in artificial neural networks. Artificial neural network works similarly to the functionality of the human nervous system. ANN is working as a nonlinear computing model based on activities performed by human brain such as classification, prediction, decision making, visualization just by considering previous experience. ANN is used to solve complex, hard-to-manage problems by accruing knowledge about the environment. There are different types of artificial neural networks available in machine learning. All types of artificial neural networks work based of mathematical operation and require a set of parameters to get results. This chapter gives overview on the various types of neural networks like feed forward, recurrent, feedback, classification-predication.

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