New Evidence on the Role of Size Effect in Determining the Pricing of Risk, Volatility Dynamics, and Economic Exposure of Firm Returns

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-25
Author(s):  
Faisal Khan ◽  
Sharif Ullah Jan
Keyword(s):  
Size Effect ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Research Study ◽  
Leverage Effect ◽  
Conditional Heteroskedasticity ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
New Evidence

This research study analyses the role of size effect in detecting the pricing of risk, various volatility dynamics, and economic exposure of firm returns on the Pakistani stock market by employing monthly data for the period from 1998 to 2018. Three generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models were applied: GARCH(1,1) for capturing different volatility dynamics, GARCH-M for pricing of risk, and EGARCH for asymmetric and leverage effect. The findings of the study are as follows: Firstly, the authors untie that pricing of risk is subject to considerable variations with respect to firm size. Secondly, in the process of detecting whether the firm size matters in the case of asymmetry and leverage effect, they find that it is indeed the case. Thirdly, size effect plays a substantial role in determining various volatility dynamics. Finally, they uncover that economic factors affect stock returns differently based on firm size, signifying the role of size effect.

scholarly journals Informational content of options around analyst recommendations

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingxia Wang ◽  
Robert Faff ◽  
Min Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Probit Model ◽  
Analyst Recommendations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Put Options ◽  
Model Free ◽  
Risk Managers ◽  
New Evidence ◽  
Option Market

PurposeMore studies have investigated the relation between option measures and stock returns during scheduled corporate events. This study adds to the literature and investigates the informational role of options concerning stock returns following unscheduled corporate news events. The authors focus on individual analysts' recommendation changes rather than consensus revisions, as the recommendation consensus might discard a large amount of potentially valuable information in the aggregation process.Design/methodology/approachBased on the econometric model, the authors follow Bakshi et al. (2003) to construct the model-free option implied measures. The authors further decompose the implied option variance into upside and downside components. In such a way, the different informational roles of call and put options can be distinguished. A variety of regression analyses are conducted to examine the predictive power of option implied measures, and the ordered probit model is used to test the tipping hypothesis of analyst recommendations.FindingsThis study’s results show that the option market impounds the “valuable” firm-specific news; thus, the pre-event option market is strongly related to stock returns around recommendations even though recommendation changes are largely “unscheduled”. At the same time, these results suggest that upside (good) and downside (bad) implied volatilities contain distinctive information on subsequent stock returns.Originality/valueThis study provides new evidence that an increase in upside (downside) volatility around analyst recommendation changes would increase the probability that analysts upgrade (downgrade) the stock. The findings provide implications for investors and risk managers in making investment decisions.

scholarly journals Foreign Ownership and Stock Return Volatility in Vietnam: the Destabilizing Role of Firm Size

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 356-377
Author(s):  
Anh Tho To ◽  
Yoshihisa Suzuki ◽  
Bao Ngoc Vuong ◽  
Quoc Tuan Tran ◽  
Khoa Do
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Foreign Ownership ◽  
Alternative Measure ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
One Year

This study aims to examine the relevance of foreign ownership to stock return volatility in the Vietnam stock market over ten years (2008 - 2017). After applying the fixed effects regressions and the extended instrumental variable regressions with fixed effects, we find that foreign ownership decreases the volatility of stock returns. However, the stabilizing impact of foreign ownership on stock return volatility becomes weaker in large firms since the coeffcient of the interaction term between firm size and foreign ownership turns out to be significantly positive. The estimated results remain robust when we use the future one-year volatility, other than the current one, as an alternative measure of the dependent variable.

scholarly journals Expectations or macroeconomic innovations: What drives the stakeholders’ decisions? Evidence from the euro area

2015 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 185-189
Author(s):  
S. Ali Shah Syed ◽  
Hélène Syed Zwick
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
New Evidence

This study brings new evidence supporting the existence of the linkage between equity market and macroeconomic variables in the Euro area. Using the monthly data from January 1999 to September 2014 we show empirical relationship between stock returns and interest rate in the 19 countries using the euro. The results confirm that in Euro Area stock markets, the stockowners decisions are significantly influenced by the macroeconomic expectations, particularly the long run interest rate

scholarly journals The Earnings Expectations Game and the Dispersion Anomaly

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Veenman ◽  
Patrick Verwijmeren
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Return Predictability ◽  
Analyst Forecast ◽  
Forecast Dispersion ◽  
Earnings Expectations ◽  
Negative Relation ◽  
Earnings Surprises ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
New Evidence

This study examines the role of differences in firms’ propensity to meet earnings expectations in explaining why firms with high analyst forecast dispersion experience relatively low future stock returns. We first demonstrate that the negative relation between dispersion and returns is concentrated around earnings announcements. Next, we show that this relation disappears when we control for ex ante measures of firms’ propensity to meet earnings expectations and that the component of dispersion explained by these measures drives the return predictability of dispersion. We further demonstrate that firms with low analyst dispersion are substantially more likely to achieve positive earnings surprises and provide new evidence consistent with both expectations management and strategic forecast pessimism explaining this result. Overall, we conclude that investor mispricing of firms’ participation in the earnings-expectations game provides a viable explanation for the dispersion anomaly. Accepted by Brian Bushee, accounting.

scholarly journals The Role of Expectation on Job Search and the Firm Size Effect on Wages

2004 ◽  
Vol 55 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-85
Author(s):  
Takako Fujiwara‐Greve ◽  
Henrich R. Greve
Keyword(s):  
Size Effect ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Job Search ◽  
Firm Size Effect

GARCH AND VOLUME EFFECTS IN THE AUSTRALIAN STOCK MARKETS

2009 ◽  
Vol 05 (01) ◽  
pp. 0950005 ◽  
Author(s):  
JINGLIANG XIAO ◽  
ROBERT D BROOKS ◽  
WING-KEUNG WONG
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Trading Volume ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Garch Model ◽  
Conditional Heteroskedasticity ◽  
Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Daily Returns ◽  
Volume Effects

This paper explores the relationship between volume and volatility in the Australian Stock Market in the context of a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model. In contrast to other studies who only examine the interaction of GARCH and volume effects on a small number of stocks, we examine these effects on the entire available data for the Australian All Ordinaries Index. We also emphasize on the impact of firm size and trading volume. Our results indicate that GARCH model testing and estimation is impacted by firm size and trading volume. Specifically, our analysis produces the following major findings. First, generally, daily trading volume, used as a proxy for information arrival time, is shown to have significant explanatory power regarding the variance of daily returns. Second, the actively traded stocks which may have a larger number of information arrivals per day have a larger impact of volume on the variance of daily returns. Third, we find that low trading volume and small firm lead to a higher persistence of GARCH effects in the estimated models. Fourth, unlike the elimination effect for the top most active stocks, in general, the elimination of both autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and GARCH effects by introducing the volume variable on all other stocks on average is not as much as that for the top most active stocks. Fifth, the elimination of both ARCH and GARCH effects by introducing the volume variable is higher for stocks in the largest volume and/or the largest market capitalization quartile group. Our findings imply that the earlier findings in the literature were not a statistical fluke and that, unlike most anomalies, the volume effect on volatility is not likely to be eliminated after its discovery. In addition, our findings reject the pure random walk hypothesis for stock returns.

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