Based on the ISM Model of REITs Endowment Property Financing Risk Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 1030-1032 ◽  
pp. 2523-2526
Author(s):  
Hai Min Wei ◽  
Lian Yue
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Financing Risk ◽  
Financing Pattern ◽  
New Form ◽  
The Relationship

Endowment property is prevalent a new form of social endowment in China in recent years, But financing has become one of the bottleneck for its smooth development. In this paper, the author combing the various risk factors of REITs financing pattern, using ISM model to analysis the factors involved in grading evaluation, rendering risk model diagram to explain the structure, resulting the relationship between the various risk factors, clear the direction of risk management

scholarly journals Integration of Interpretive Structural Modeling with Fuzzy Bayesian Network for Risk Assessment of Tunnel Collapse

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Leping He ◽  
Tao Tang ◽  
Qijun Hu ◽  
Qijie Cai ◽  
Zhijun Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Making ◽  
Structural Modeling ◽  
Interpretive Structural Modeling ◽  
Construction Risk ◽  
Tunnel Collapse ◽  
The Relationship

Frequent collapse accidents in tunnels are associated with many construction risk factors, and the interrelationship among these risk factors is complex and ambiguous. This study’s aim is to clarify the relationship among risk factors to reduce the tunnel collapse risk. A multicriteria decision-making method is proposed by combining interpretive structural modeling (ISM) and fuzzy Bayesian network (FBN). ISM is used to determine the hierarchical relationships among risk factors. FBN quantitatively analyzes the strength of the interaction among risk factors and conducts risk analysis. The ISM-FBN method contains three steps: (1) drawing the ISM-directed graph; (2) obtaining the probability of the FBN nodes; and (3) using GeNle to implement risk analysis. The proposed method is also used to assess the collapse risk and detect the critical factors in the Canglongxia Tunnel, China. This method’s tunnel collapse risk model can provide managers with clear risk information and better realize project management.

Scenario based evaluation of a cost risk model through sensitivity analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Önder Ökmen ◽  
Ahmet Öztaş
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Practical Method ◽  
Cost Evaluation ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Detailed Evaluation ◽  
Cost Risk

Purpose – Actual costs frequently deviate from the estimated costs in either favorable or adverse direction in construction projects. Conventional cost evaluation methods do not take the uncertainty and correlation effects into account. In this regard, a simulation-based cost risk analysis model, the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model, previously has been proposed to evaluate the uncertainty effect on construction costs in case of correlated costs and correlated risk-factors. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the detailed evaluation of the Cost Risk Analysis Model through scenario and sensitivity analyses. Design/methodology/approach – The evaluation process consists of three scenarios with three sensitivity analyses in each and 28 simulations in total. During applications, the model’s important parameter called the mean proportion coefficient is modified and the user-dependent variables like the risk-factor influence degrees are changed to observe the response of the model to these modifications and to examine the indirect, two-sided and qualitative correlation capturing algorithm of the model. Monte Carlo Simulation is also applied on the same data to compare the results. Findings – The findings have shown that the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model is capable of capturing the correlation between the costs and between the risk-factors, and operates in accordance with the theoretical expectancies. Originality/value – Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model can be preferred as a reliable and practical method by the professionals of the construction sector thanks to its detailed evaluation introduced in this paper.

Analysis of risk concept for technical systems using digital twins

2020 ◽  
pp. 99-113
Author(s):  
Анатолий Михайлович Лепихин ◽  
Николай Андреевич Махутов ◽  
Юрий Иванович Шокин ◽  
Андрей Васильевич Юрченко
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Computer Modelling ◽  
Product Lifecycle Management ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Digital Twins ◽  
Real Objects ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
Active Research

Рассмотрены основные методологические аспекты анализа рисков технических систем с использованием цифровых двойников. Сформулирована концепция рисканализа и предложена базовая модель для ее реализации. Рассмотрены информационные аспекты анализа неопределенностей модели риска. Показано, что технологии цифровых двойников позволяют эффективно сочетать результаты компьютерного моделирования с данными мониторинга реальных объектов, обеспечивая более глубокий анализ объектов, с учетом множества вариантов конструкции, технологий и условий эксплуатации Development of technology and technical systems significantly increases in the volume of information. Traditional methods for designing, manufacturing and operating of technical systems do not allow processing such volumes of information. In this regard, the modern strategy for creating technical systems is based on the use of digital twins. Solving the problems of risk analysis and risk management for technical systems at all stages of the life cycle appears to be one of the promising areas for application of the digital twins technology. Despite of active research, using digital twins in risk analysis currently do not have appropriate methodological justifications and technical solutions in a number of key aspects. In particular, effective reductions of the order of risk models and quantifying uncertainty factors of various types have not been solved. The concept of the risk-informed decision making in product lifecycle management has not been implemented. In fact, there are very few publications on the risk analysis and risk management methodology using digital twins. The article discusses the main methodological aspects of risk analysis of technical systems using digital twins. The concept of risk analysis is formulated and a basic model for its implementation is proposed. The informational aspects of the analysis of uncertainties of the risk model are considered. It is shown that digital twin technologies allow effective combination of the results of computer modelling with the data monitoring of real objects, providing a deeper analysis of objects, taking into account a variety of design options, technologies and operating conditions.

The Politics of Risk: Trials and Tribulations of the Taurus Project

1996 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 347-357 ◽  
Author(s):  
Helga Drummond
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Project Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Balance Of Power ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Illusion Of Control ◽  
Complex Projects ◽  
Risk Acceptance ◽  
The Relationship

The term ‘risk management’ implies that risk is something which can be quantified, predicted and controlled. This paper seeks to demonstrate the limits of this assumption where complex projects are involved. The argument is based upon a case study of a failed £80 million IT venture known as Taurus. Analysis focuses upon the relationship between politics and the assumption of risk. Acceptance of risk, it is argued, is ultimately determined by the balance of power between decision makers. Moreover, risk analysis and other techniques of management may actually compound the difficulties by fostering an illusion of control and escalation. The implications for project management are discussed.

Belt and road initiative (BRI) supply chain risks: propositions and model development

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 777-799
Author(s):  
Jiwat Ram ◽  
Zeyang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Belt And Road

PurposeBelt and road initiative (BRI) is a transcontinental endeavor strategically connecting supply chains (SCs) and economic infrastructures to ignite business activities and achieve trade benefits. However, the rising global SC failure costs and risks associated with this initiative (owing to unique geopolitical, economic and mega-connectivity involving over 70 countries) necessitate examining BRI SC risks. Yet, research on the subject remains limited, and the purpose of this paper is to address this gap in knowledge.Design/methodology/approachA two-pronged approach was taken. First, a data sample of 554 articles was analyzed and 178 articles found relevant were used to present a systematic, structured framework of risk factors along operational, economic, financial, social and security dimensions. Then informed by the theory of risk management and supplemented by literature evidence, we have built a BRI SC risk model.FindingsThe results presented through the model show that BRI SCs face a combination of risks triggered by operational processes, informational and environmental (PIE) deficiencies. Findings show that lack of risk and liability management, unbalanced risk-sharing partnerships, lack of transparency, inadequate project evaluation, incompatible corporate governance structures and cyber security all pose threats to BRI SCs specifically and SCs in general.Research limitations/implicationsAcademically, the results facilitate theory development by identifying and proposing seven risk factors and modeling relationship among them and BRI SC risks outcome. The results also extend application of theory of risk management to SC context.Practical implicationsThe findings provide a decision-making tool for managers to assess risk factors in their SCs, thus enabling improved decision making to avoid, mitigate, transfer or accept risks.Originality/valueIdentifies and proposes a set of seven risk factors that drive BRI SC risks. Develops a model of BRI SC risks which help build theory of SC risk management.

MODELS OF MONITORING AND MANAGEMENT OF RISK IN GAUSSIAN STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS

2018 ◽  
pp. 776-783
Author(s):  
Alexander Nikolaevich Tyrsin ◽  
Alfiya Adgamovna Surina
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Stochastic System ◽  
Stochastic Systems ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Risk Monitoring ◽  
The Given ◽  
Current Risk ◽  
Management Of Risk

The risk model of multidimensional stochastic systems is described. It is based on the hypothesis that the risk is characterized by probabilistic properties of components of multidimensional stochastic system which are used as risk factors. The case of the Gaussian stochastic systems is investigated. The model of risk monitoring allows to estimate the current risk of system and the contribution of all its components. Models of risk management are optimizing tasks. As the target functions the conditional minimum of risk and achievement of the given level by it can be used at minimum changes of probabilistic characteristics of the system.

scholarly journals Incidence and Risk Factors for Cerebrovascular-Specific Mortality in Patients with Colorectal Cancer: A Registry-Based Cohort Study Involving 563298 Patients

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Huang ◽  
Ming Tang ◽  
Yun-Liang Chen ◽  
Tao-Lan Zhang ◽  
Tao Hong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Multivariate Survival ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Male Patients ◽  
Standardized Mortality Ratios ◽  
Competing Causes ◽  
The Relationship

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most prevalent diseases and the second leading cause of death worldwide. However, the relationship between CRC and cerebrovascular-specific mortality (CVSM) remains elusive and less is known about the influencing factors associated with CVSM in CRC. Here, we aimed to analyze the incidence as well as the risk factors of CVSM in CRC. Methods: Patients with a primary CRC diagnosed between 1973 and 2015 were identified from Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database with follow-up data available until 31 December 2016. Conditional standardized mortality ratios were calculated to compare the incidence of CVSM between CRC patients and the general US population. Univariate and multivariate survival analyses with a competing risk model were used to interrogate the risk factors for CVSM. Results: A total of 563298 CRC individuals were included. The CVSM in CRC patients was significantly higher than the general population in all age subgroups. Among competing causes of death in patients, the cumulative mortality caused by cerebrovascular-specific diseases steadily increased during study period. While age and surgery positively influenced CVSM on both univariate and multivariate analyses, male patients and those who had radiotherapy, chemotherapy, more recent year (2001-2015) of diagnosis as well as multiple primary or distant tumors experienced a lower risk of CVSM. Interpretation: Our data suggest a potential role for CRC in the incidence of CVSM and also identify several significant predictors of CVSM, which may be helpful for risk stratification and therapeutic optimization of cerebrovascular-specific diseases in CRC patients.

scholarly journals Da probabilidade à racionalidade: um estudo sobre o risco nos processos de avaliação da conformidade | From probability to rationality: a study on risk in conformity assessment processes

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria Luiza Costa Martins ◽  
Janaina Goulart Belchior
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Conformity Assessment ◽  
Social Rationality ◽  
Analysis Process ◽  
Product Regulation ◽  
The Relationship

Resumo O trabalho discute a questão do risco no âmbito do Sistema Brasileiro de Avaliação da Conformidade. Valendo-se da evolução do conceito de risco ao longo da história, estuda o processo de análise de risco nas decisões relacionadas à regulamentação de produtos e qual o embasamento que esta análise deve ter de modo a fugir de uma dedução meramente pautada em cálculos probabilísticos, para buscar uma racionalidade social que atenda plenamente aos anseios de todos os indivíduos. Para tanto, destaca a atuação do Inmetro como gerenciador de riscos, analisando as estratégias que usa para estimar os riscos.Palavras-chave gerenciamento de risco, avaliação da conformidade, racionalidade social, regulamentação, InmetroAbstract This paper discusses risk analysis in the Brazilian Conformity Assessment System. Beyond risk conception evolution throughout history, this work studies the relationship between the risk analysis process and the decisions of product regulation. The issue is what parameters  should be included in the analysis.Keywords risk management, conformity assessment, social rationality, regulation, Inmetro

Improving success rates for Indigenous business engagement

2017 ◽  
Vol 57 (2) ◽  
pp. 543
Author(s):  
Murray Saylor ◽  
Deb Archbold
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Supply Chain ◽  
Lead Time ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Success Rates ◽  
Failure Risk ◽  
Contract Failure ◽  
The Relationship

Although some oil and gas projects have successfully engaged Indigenous businesses in their supply chain, other projects have found this difficult to achieve. Understanding the risk factors in the process of Indigenous engagement and successfully managing those risks creates a positive environment for Indigenous business engagement, one that is much more likely to support long-term success and minimise business and contract failure. Risk management areas to consider include not understanding Traditional Owner community goals and priorities, not assisting communities to build their capabilities and poor communication. This paper maps these risks and outlines four practical strategies to mitigate these risks: (1) giving local Indigenous businesses the lead time to prepare for work opportunities and build their capabilities; (2) including a mix of large, medium-sized and small local Indigenous businesses in the supply chain; (3) using culturally respectful pathways for Indigenous employment; and (4) maintaining the relationship with Traditional Owner groups. Managing risks and using these practical approaches will improve and increase Indigenous business engagement in project supply chains.

Function-Oriented Risk Model for Engineering System

2012 ◽  
Vol 433-440 ◽  
pp. 2899-2903
Author(s):  
Wei Jing Zhou ◽  
Huai Rong Shen
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Modeling Method ◽  
Engineering System ◽  
Structural Description ◽  
System A ◽  
Logic Diagram ◽  
Servo Mechanism

Risk analysis is important to increase the reliability of engineering system. And an excellent model is the foundation. Traditional models are event-oriented so that it can’t describe the totality of the system. This paper introduces a function-oriented modeling approach-Goal Tree Success Tree and Master Logic Diagram. It provides a powerful functional/structural description and modeling method. It can represent the goals, the functions, the components and their interactions of the engineering system. So, it is a systemic modeling method for the risk analysis of engineering system. A case study of the servo mechanism of the launch vehicle shows that this approach can identify the key risk factors and the hidden risk factors. And it can trace the failure influence. It provides a systemic approach to risk analysis for researchers

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