MODELS OF MONITORING AND MANAGEMENT OF RISK IN GAUSSIAN STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS

2018 ◽  
pp. 776-783
Author(s):  
Alexander Nikolaevich Tyrsin ◽  
Alfiya Adgamovna Surina
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Stochastic System ◽  
Stochastic Systems ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Risk Monitoring ◽  
The Given ◽  
Current Risk ◽  
Management Of Risk

The risk model of multidimensional stochastic systems is described. It is based on the hypothesis that the risk is characterized by probabilistic properties of components of multidimensional stochastic system which are used as risk factors. The case of the Gaussian stochastic systems is investigated. The model of risk monitoring allows to estimate the current risk of system and the contribution of all its components. Models of risk management are optimizing tasks. As the target functions the conditional minimum of risk and achievement of the given level by it can be used at minimum changes of probabilistic characteristics of the system.

Impact of Risk Assessment Models on Risk Factors

2018 ◽  
pp. 134-153
Author(s):  
K. Madhu Kishore Raghunath ◽  
S. L. Tulasi Devi ◽  
Chandra Sekhar Patro
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
The Other ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
General Business ◽  
The Given

World is vicinity full of opportunities given the amount of economic and non-economic transactions taking place every moment. With ubiquitous opportunities all around, businesses can assume inherent risk everywhere in one or the other way. In this chapter, the authors have deliberated the general business scenario to prove the given inferences. The readers will come across why the risk management is gaining so much gravity and across risk strategy of top business players. The chapter will bring into light the various risk factors in business and study the various risk assessment models present to fortify the negativity of these risk factors. Simultaneously, the authors will draw empirical evidence on the effectiveness, qualitative and quantitative risk models have on risk factors in public and private business organisations.

Belt and road initiative (BRI) supply chain risks: propositions and model development

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 777-799
Author(s):  
Jiwat Ram ◽  
Zeyang Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Cyber Security ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Belt And Road Initiative ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Belt And Road

PurposeBelt and road initiative (BRI) is a transcontinental endeavor strategically connecting supply chains (SCs) and economic infrastructures to ignite business activities and achieve trade benefits. However, the rising global SC failure costs and risks associated with this initiative (owing to unique geopolitical, economic and mega-connectivity involving over 70 countries) necessitate examining BRI SC risks. Yet, research on the subject remains limited, and the purpose of this paper is to address this gap in knowledge.Design/methodology/approachA two-pronged approach was taken. First, a data sample of 554 articles was analyzed and 178 articles found relevant were used to present a systematic, structured framework of risk factors along operational, economic, financial, social and security dimensions. Then informed by the theory of risk management and supplemented by literature evidence, we have built a BRI SC risk model.FindingsThe results presented through the model show that BRI SCs face a combination of risks triggered by operational processes, informational and environmental (PIE) deficiencies. Findings show that lack of risk and liability management, unbalanced risk-sharing partnerships, lack of transparency, inadequate project evaluation, incompatible corporate governance structures and cyber security all pose threats to BRI SCs specifically and SCs in general.Research limitations/implicationsAcademically, the results facilitate theory development by identifying and proposing seven risk factors and modeling relationship among them and BRI SC risks outcome. The results also extend application of theory of risk management to SC context.Practical implicationsThe findings provide a decision-making tool for managers to assess risk factors in their SCs, thus enabling improved decision making to avoid, mitigate, transfer or accept risks.Originality/valueIdentifies and proposes a set of seven risk factors that drive BRI SC risks. Develops a model of BRI SC risks which help build theory of SC risk management.

scholarly journals Prediction of the Rehabilitation Duration and Risk Management for Mild-Moderate COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 652-657 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiong-Na Zheng ◽  
Mei-Yan Xu ◽  
Yong-Le Zheng ◽  
Xiu-Ying Wang ◽  
Hui Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Clinical Decision Making ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Clinical Decision ◽  
Clinical Practices

ABSTRACTObjectives:More than 80% of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases are mild or moderate. In this study, a risk model was developed for predicting rehabilitation duration (the time from hospital admission to discharge) of the mild-moderate COVID-19 cases and was used to conduct refined risk management for different risk populations.Methods:A total of 90 consecutive patients with mild-moderate COVID-19 were enrolled. Large-scale datasets were extracted from clinical practices. Through the multivariable linear regression analysis, the model was based on significant risk factors and was developed for predicting the rehabilitation duration of mild-moderate cases of COVID-19. To assess the local epidemic situation, risk management was conducted by weighing the risk of populations at different risk.Results:Ten risk factors from 44 high-dimensional clinical datasets were significantly correlated to rehabilitation duration (P < 0.05). Among these factors, 5 risk predictors were incorporated into a risk model. Individual rehabilitation durations were effectively calculated. Weighing the local epidemic situation, threshold probability was classified for low risk, intermediate risk, and high risk. Using this classification, risk management was based on a treatment flowchart tailored for clinical decision-making.Conclusions:The proposed novel model is a useful tool for individualized risk management of mild-moderate COVID-19 cases, and it may readily facilitate dynamic clinical decision-making for different risk populations.

Based on the ISM Model of REITs Endowment Property Financing Risk Analysis

2014 ◽  
Vol 1030-1032 ◽  
pp. 2523-2526
Author(s):  
Hai Min Wei ◽  
Lian Yue
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Financing Risk ◽  
Financing Pattern ◽  
New Form ◽  
The Relationship

Endowment property is prevalent a new form of social endowment in China in recent years, But financing has become one of the bottleneck for its smooth development. In this paper, the author combing the various risk factors of REITs financing pattern, using ISM model to analysis the factors involved in grading evaluation, rendering risk model diagram to explain the structure, resulting the relationship between the various risk factors, clear the direction of risk management

scholarly journals Fluxo de Caixa em Risco: Diferentes Métodos de Estimação Testados no Setor Siderúrgico Brasileiro

2007 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 165
Author(s):  
Fernanda Finotti Cordeiro Perobelli ◽  
Flávia Vital Januzzi ◽  
Leandro Josias Sathler Berbet ◽  
Danilo Soares de Medeiros
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Factor ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Future Behavior ◽  
Historical Distribution ◽  
Relevant Role ◽  
Steel Sector ◽  
The Subject

Risk management is a subject that, crisis after crisis, assumes a relevant role in the environment of non-financial companies. Despite the growing importance of the subject, debate about the introduction of a model capable of evaluating the risks to which companies are exposed is still in its infancy. Considering this gap and the importance of the theme for companies, this study proposes constructing an empirical cash flow at risk model and applying it to companies in the steel sector in Brazil. We have analyzed two methods of risk factors identification: sector components and company-level components. After such identification, simulations of risk factors future behavior were made using either the historical distribution of each risk factors and residuals of each risk factor time-series model. In addition, a third (and naïıve) method was tested: bootstrap of each component of the cashflow.

Risk Management for Cultural Organizations.The Example of Agricultural Museums in the Czech Republic

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-122
Author(s):  
Michal Plaček ◽  
Milan Půček ◽  
František Ochrana ◽  
Milan Křápek ◽  
Ondřej H. Matyáš
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Technical Support ◽  
High Quality ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Managerial Practice ◽  
The Future

This paper deals with the analysis of risks which threaten the future sustainability and operations of agricultural museums in the Czech Republic. In the section on methodology, an applicable risk model has been proposed regarding the condition of museums in the Czech Republic. Using this model, the directors of agricultural museums can assess the most significant risks which may jeopardize the sustainability of museum operations over a three-year period. The greatest risks, according to museum directors, are a lack money for investment, the inability to retain high-quality staff, and issues with technical support for exhibitions. Assessing the importance of risk is positively associated with previous experiences of a particular type of risk, whereas the association of the importance of risk with previous managerial practice is rather inconclusive.

The Effects of Decision Aid Orientation on Risk Factor Identification and Audit Test Planning

2002 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-56 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean C. Bedard ◽  
Lynford E. Graham
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Decision Aid ◽  
Decision Aids ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Risk Identification ◽  
Matched Pair ◽  
Audit Planning ◽  
Audit Firms ◽  
Risk Management Strategies

In auditing, risk management involves identifying client facts or issues that may affect engagement risk, and planning evidence-gathering strategies accordingly. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether auditors' identification of risk factors and planning of audit tests is affected by decision aid orientation, i.e., a “negative” focus wherein client risk and its consequences are emphasized, or a “positive” focus where such factors are not emphasized. Specifically, we expect that auditors will identify more risk factors using a negatively oriented risk identification decision aid, but only when engagement risk is relatively high. We address this issue in the context of auditors' knowledge of actual clients, manipulating decision aid orientation as negative or positive in a matched-pair design. Results show that auditors using the negative decision aid orientation identify more risk factors than do those using a positive orientation, for their higher-risk clients. We also find that decisions to apply substantive tests are more directly linked to specific risk factors identified than to direct risk assessments. Further, our results show that auditors with repeat engagement experience with the client identify more risk factors. The findings of this study imply that audit firms may improve their risk management strategies through simple changes in the design of decision aids used to support audit planning.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Physical Risk during Necropsy and Morgue Activities as Risk Management Strategy

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (16) ◽  
pp. 8266
Author(s):  
Zoe Del Fante ◽  
Nicola Di Fazio ◽  
Adriano Papale ◽  
Paola Tomao ◽  
Fabio Del Duca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Risk Management Strategy ◽  
Work Related ◽  
Activity Measurements ◽  
Risk Management Strategies ◽  
Physical Risk ◽  
Critical Issues ◽  
Load Handling

Physical risk assessments allow us to understand work-related critical issues, thus representing a useful tool in risk management strategies. In particular, our study focuses on the identification of already known and emerging physical risks related to necropsy and morgue activities, as well as crime scene investigations. The aim of our study is, therefore, to identify objective elements in order to quantify exposure to such risk factors among healthcare professionals and working personnel. For the research of potentially at-risk activities, data from the Morgue of Policlinico Umberto I Hospital in Rome were used. The scientific literature has been reviewed in order to assess the risks associated with morgue activity. Measurements were performed on previously scheduled days, in collaboration with the activities of different research units. The identified areas of risk were: microclimate; exposure to noise and vibrations; postural and biomechanical aspects of necropsy activities. The obtained results make it possible to detect interindividual variability in exposure to many of the aforementioned risk factors. In particular, the assessment of microclimate did not show significant results. On the contrary, exposure to vibrations and biomechanical aspects of load handling have shown potential risk profiles. For this reason, both profiles have been identified as possible action targets for risk management strategies.

scholarly journals A novel simple risk model to predict the prognosis of patients with paraquat poisoning

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yanxia Gao ◽  
Liwen Liu ◽  
Tiegang Li ◽  
Ding Yuan ◽  
Yibo Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Latent Class ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Training Sample ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Hospital Death ◽  
Gamma Glutamyl Transferase ◽  
Creatine Kinase Mb ◽  
Glutamyl Transferase

AbstractTo identify risk factors and develop a simple model to predict early prognosis of acute paraquat (PQ) poisoning patients, we performed a retrospective cohort study of acute PQ poisoning patients (n = 1199). Patients (n = 913) with PQ poisoning from 2011 to 2018 were randomly divided into training (n = 609) and test (n = 304) samples. Another two independent cohorts were used as validation samples for a different time (n = 207) and site (n = 79). Risk factors were identified using a logistic model with Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation and further evaluated using a latent class analysis. The prediction score was developed based on the training sample and was evaluated using the testing and validation samples. Eight factors, including age, ingestion volume, creatine kinase-MB [CK-MB], platelet [PLT], white blood cell [WBC], neutrophil counts [N], gamma-glutamyl transferase [GGT], and serum creatinine [Cr] were identified as independent risk indicators of in-hospital death events. The risk model had C statistics of 0.895 (95% CI 0.855–0.928), 0.891 (95% CI 0.848–0.932), and 0.829 (95% CI 0.455–1.000), and predictive ranges of 4.6–98.2%, 2.3–94.9%, and 0–12.5% for the test, validation_time, and validation_site samples, respectively. In the training sample, the risk model classified 18.4%, 59.9%, and 21.7% of patients into the high-, average-, and low-risk groups, with corresponding probabilities of 0.985, 0.365, and 0.03 for in-hospital death events. We developed and evaluated a simple risk model to predict the prognosis of patients with acute PQ poisoning. This risk scoring system could be helpful for identifying high-risk patients and reducing mortality due to PQ poisoning.

scholarly journals Modeling of Bank Credit Risk Management Using the Cost Risk Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 211
Author(s):  
Iryna Yanenkova ◽  
Yuliia Nehoda ◽  
Svetlana Drobyazko ◽  
Andrii Zavhorodnii ◽  
Lyudmyla Berezovska
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Decision Support ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Credit Risk Management ◽  
Loan Default ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Credit Portfolio ◽  
Cost Risk

This article deals with the issue of managing bank credit risk using a cost risk model. Modeling of bank credit risk management was proposed based on neural-cell technologies, which expand the possibilities of modeling complex objects and processes and provide high reliability of credit risk determination. The purpose of the article is to improve and develop methodical support and practical recommendations for reducing the level of risk based on the value-at-risk (VaR) methodology and its subsequent combination with methods of fuzzy programming and symbiotic methodical support. The model makes it possible to create decision support subsystems for nonperforming loan management based on the neuro-fuzzy approach. For this paper, economic and mathematical tools (based on the VaR methodology) were used, which made it possible to analyze and forecast the dynamics of overdue payment; assess the quality of the credit portfolio of the bank; determine possible trends in bank development. A scientific and practical approach is taken to assess and forecast the degree of credit problematicity by qualitative criteria using a mathematical model based on a fuzzy technology, which can forecast the increased risk of loan default at an early stage in the process of monitoring the loan portfolio and model forecasting changes in the degree of credit problematicity on change of indicators. A methodology is proposed for the analysis and forecasting of indicators of troubled loan debt, which should be implemented as software and included in the decision support system during the process of monitoring the risk of the bank’s credit portfolio.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document