An Improved FOSM Method for Calculating the Failure Probability of Welded Pipes with Cracks

2004 ◽  
Vol 261-263 ◽  
pp. 561-566
Author(s):  
Li Xing Huo ◽  
Min Liu ◽  
You Feng Zhang ◽  
Fang Juan Qi
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Linear Expansion ◽  
Failure Function ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

To increase the accuracy of R-F method, it is necessary to solve the problems of the linear expansion of failure function and non-normal variables. In this paper, the improved FOSM method was applied to calculate the failure probability of welded pipes with cracks. The examples show that this method is simple, efficient and accurate for reliability safety assessment of welded pipes with cracks. It can save more time than the Monte Carlo method does, so that the improved FOSM method is recommended for general engineering reliability safety assessment of welded pipes with cracks.

Study on Reliability of Jacket Offshore Platform by Seismic Action Based on ANSYS

2010 ◽  
Vol 163-167 ◽  
pp. 3023-3028
Author(s):  
Qing Zhi Yan ◽  
Zhan Zhang ◽  
Liang Cui ◽  
Yan Hua Wang
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Failure Mode ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Offshore Platform ◽  
Seismic Action ◽  
Structure Reliability ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Jacket Offshore Platform ◽  
Main Factor

Jacket Offshore Platform is a complex statically indeterminate structure, reliability of which is impacted by many factors, and the earthquake is a main factor. This paper simplify the significant failure mode of Jacket Offshore Platform by standard. Calculate the reliability of Jacket Offshore Platform under the effect of earthquake with the Monte Carlo method based on ANSYS. The result can provide evidence for safety assessment of Jacket Offshore Platform.

The Reliability Analysis for Coastal Structure Based on Monte Carlo Method

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yam Huang ◽  
Honda Shi ◽  
Wei Wang ◽  
Yong Fan
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Reliability Analysis ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Mathematical Analysis ◽  
Yellow Sea ◽  
Calculation Model ◽  
Coastal Structure ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Deterministic Methods

The Monte Carlo method is often a favorite selection to estimate the reliability of structure since it involves no complex mathematical analysis, especially when systems are so complex or large that deterministic methods are difficult. In this paper, Monte Carlo method is used to analyse the failure probability of a gravity wharf in Yellow Sea. In addition, in view of the uncertainty exited in calculation model or other aspects, the sensitivity of failure probability is calculated.

scholarly journals Minimax Decision for the Reliability of Aircraft Fleet With and Without Information Exchange

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-30
Author(s):  
Sergejs Tretjakovs ◽  
Jurijs Paramonovs
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Information Exchange ◽  
Human Factor ◽  
Fatigue Cracks ◽  
Scientific Article ◽  
Numerical Examples ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
New Type

Abstract The scientific article addresses the dependence of aircraft fleet safety on the human factor. The article demonstrates the significance of information exchange concerning the open fatigue cracks, which is necessary to bring a new type of aircraft into operation. The article provides numerical examples obtained by means of the Monte Carlo method and considers the dependences of failure probability on various factors.

Sensitivity Analysis for the Cylindrical Pressure Vessel of 16MnR Steel with the Monte-Carlo Method

2011 ◽  
Vol 689 ◽  
pp. 419-424
Author(s):  
Jun Li ◽  
Zheng Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Failure Probability ◽  
Pressure Vessel ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Film Stress ◽  
Assessment Procedure ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Cylindrical Pressure Vessel ◽  
Input Parameters

Probabilistic safety assessment procedure is used to evaluate the cylindrical pressure vessel of 16MnR steel, which regards defect sizes, mechanical properties and stresses as random variables. Monte-Carlo simulation is applied on calculating failure probability, which is based on the Chinese safety assessment procedure (GB/T 19624-2004). Sensitivity analysis is performed to estimate the effect of change in input parameters. The results show that failure probability may be influenced significantly by change in parameters concerning yield strength and film stress. Additionally, the different distributions of input parameters have an effect on failure probability.

scholarly journals Application of Monte Carlo Method in Hydraulic Structures Safety Assessment in Vietnam Conditions

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
pp. 3141-3146
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Design Method ◽  
Hydraulic Structures ◽  
Safety Factors ◽  
Random Design ◽  
Level Ii ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
The World

Vietnam is a country with many dams but most of these works are designed according to the Determined design method and analysis of safety factors, while the Random design method and the reliability analysis have become popular in the world for many years. The paper introduces the method of calculating reliability for hydraulic structures according to the Monte Carlo method or the level III random design method. Based on the method of calculating the reliability of dams according to the Monte Carlo, the authors applied to calculate the reliability of the main dam of Phu Ninh - Quang Nam irrigation reservoirs. Compare with the reliability calculations at level II and have recommendations applied to all levels of construction in Vietnam conditions: with important dams will be calculated according to the problem of level III, with less

UGR CALCULATION BASED ON THE LUMINANCE SPATIAL-ANGULAR DISTRIBUTION

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (4) ◽  
pp. 25-32
Author(s):  
Viktor Zheltov ◽  
Viktor Chembaev
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Angular Distribution ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Visual Task ◽  
New Method ◽  
Lighting System ◽  
Preliminary Assessment ◽  
System A ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The article has considered the calculation of the unified glare rating (UGR) based on the luminance spatial-angular distribution (LSAD). The method of local estimations of the Monte Carlo method is proposed as a method for modeling LSAD. On the basis of LSAD, it becomes possible to evaluate the quality of lighting by many criteria, including the generally accepted UGR. UGR allows preliminary assessment of the level of comfort for performing a visual task in a lighting system. A new method of "pixel-by-pixel" calculation of UGR based on LSAD is proposed.

PSHA software review based on the Monte Carlo method

2020 ◽  
pp. 14-24
Author(s):  
V.A. Mironov ◽  
S.A. Peretokin ◽  
K.V. Simonov
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Software Review ◽  
Seismic Hazard Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Seismic Hazard ◽  
Test Calculation ◽  
Seismic Surveys ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method

The article is a continuation of the software research to perform probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) as one of the main stages in engineering seismic surveys. The article provides an overview of modern software for PSHA based on the Monte Carlo method, describes in detail the work of foreign programs OpenQuake Engine and EqHaz. A test calculation of seismic hazard was carried out to compare the functionality of domestic and foreign software.

Application of the Monte Carlo Method for the Prediction of Behavior of Peptides

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (12) ◽  
pp. 1151-1157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alla P. Toropova ◽  
Andrey A. Toropov
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Natural Sciences ◽  
Monte Carlo Technique ◽  
Quantitative Structure ◽  
Structure Property ◽  
The Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Modern Natural

Prediction of physicochemical and biochemical behavior of peptides is an important and attractive task of the modern natural sciences, since these substances have a key role in life processes. The Monte Carlo technique is a possible way to solve the above task. The Monte Carlo method is a tool with different applications relative to the study of peptides: (i) analysis of the 3D configurations (conformers); (ii) establishment of quantitative structure – property / activity relationships (QSPRs/QSARs); and (iii) development of databases on the biopolymers. Current ideas related to application of the Monte Carlo technique for studying peptides and biopolymers have been discussed in this review.

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