Probability Distribution Analysis of Rock Salt Creep Parameters Based on Comprehensive Optimal Acceptance Criteria

2013 ◽  
Vol 577-578 ◽  
pp. 561-564
Author(s):  
Ji Wei Ma ◽  
Zhi Yin Wang ◽  
Jin Peng Wu

According to salt rock creep test data and strain variation regulation of a salt mine, salt rock creep parameters are obtained based on Burgers creep model fitting. Statistical study of the probability distribution of the salt rock Burgers model creep parameters is carried out by K-S, A-D and C-M test method, from which probability model for each creep parameters is obtained. To achieve the purpose of determining the optimal probability model for each creep parameters, considering the acceptable level of various test method to different hypothesis probability model, the author put forward the comprehensive optimal acceptance criteria on the basis of limited comparison method, the correctness of which is proved by test result.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fu Jin ◽  
Wang Xi ◽  
Ding Mingming ◽  
Yang Guobin ◽  
Zhang Shunyuan ◽  
...  

Abstract The crude oil price has been keeping at a low level in recent years, which made China's government put more efforts in the development of underground oil storages in depleted salt caverns. Under the initiative of "the Belt and Road", a more concrete concept which is "the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road" successfully connects Jiangsu Province in the east of China. Consisting of 20 depleted caverns, Huai'an project that is still under planning is one of the most successful examples that turn depleted salt caverns into underground crude oil storages in China. Each cavern takes up 24×104m3, while the project totally takes up 480×104m3. TDMA algorithm was adopted to solve the heat exchange model of oil, brine and surrounding rocks, revealing the relationship between temperature and cavern pressure. Salt rock safety factor, salt cavern shrinkage ratio, axial stress and ground subsidence were taken into consideration to establish a 3-dimension salt rock creep model for 19 depleted salt caverns, so that the caverns’ shapes were optimized. Hydrodynamics models were used to determine the oil's flow rate into and out of a 1000m deep cavern whose thermal field was simulated by software to reveal the temperature limit of oil and brine. Due to geothermal gradient and continuous heat transmission, the average temperature of oil and brine goes up from 35°C to 44.3°C within 7 years, while the inner pressure goes up from 12.96MPa to 21.93MPa in a depleted salt cavern. Salt creep ratio decreases as oil is stored in underground caverns for a longer period. Salt is hardly penetrated by oil, while the temperature change has a strong influence on caverns’ internal pressure. The thermal expansion factor and compressibility coefficient of crude oil and brine are both crucial to the temperature's effect on internal pressure. Caverns that have larger segments in their upper-middle or middle parts are more stable and resistant to salt creep than those that have larger segments in their lower parts. When oil is injected or pumped out, it is necessary to make the internal pressure lower than the static pressure of surrounding rocks. Hence, the most appropriate flow rate of crude oil is 4.5m/s. Crude oil that is stored in deep salt caverns may be heated up to 60°C due to the geothermal gradient, but the flammable gas in oil is rapidly gasified or even explodes when it is pumped out to the surface. To avoid accidents and air pollution, oil is cooled down before being delivered via pipelines. Oil tanks used to be applied by scale in China, however they are too obvious on the ground to comply with national strategic energy safety. Compared with oil tanks of similar volumes, the Huai'an underground oil storages may save the overall cost by 35.3%. It is the first time that the salt rock creep model is established in depleted salt caverns, while the conclusion overthrew the common preference of regular cylindrical caverns.


Author(s):  
V Brotóns ◽  
S Ivorra ◽  
R Tomás ◽  
J Martínez-Martínez ◽  
D Benavente
Keyword(s):  

2022 ◽  
Vol 2022 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Erjian Wei ◽  
Bin Hu ◽  
Jing Li ◽  
Kai Cui ◽  
Zhen Zhang ◽  
...  

A rock creep constitutive model is the core content of rock rheological mechanics theory and is of great significance for studying the long-term stability of engineering. Most of the creep models constructed in previous studies have complex types and many parameters. Based on fractional calculus theory, this paper explores the creep curve characteristics of the creep elements with the fractional order change, constructs a nonlinear viscoelastic-plastic creep model of rock based on fractional calculus, and deduces the creep constitutive equation. By using a user-defined function fitting tool of the Origin software and the Levenberg–Marquardt optimization algorithm, the creep test data are fitted and compared. The fitting curve is in good agreement with the experimental data, which shows the rationality and applicability of the proposed nonlinear viscoelastic-plastic creep model. Through sensitivity analysis of the fractional order β2 and viscoelastic coefficient ξ2, the influence of these creep parameters on rock creep is clarified. The research results show that the nonlinear viscoelastic-plastic creep model of rock based on fractional calculus constructed in this paper can well describe the creep characteristics of rock, and this model has certain theoretical significance and engineering application value for long-term engineering stability research.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 60-67
Author(s):  
Rashidul Hasan Rashidul Hasan

The estimation of a suitable probability model depends mainly on the features of available temperature data at a particular place. As a result, existing probability distributions must be evaluated to establish an appropriate probability model that can deliver precise temperature estimation. The study intended to estimate the best-fitted probability model for the monthly maximum temperature at the Sylhet station in Bangladesh from January 2002 to December 2012 using several statistical analyses. Ten continuous probability distributions such as Exponential, Gamma, Log-Gamma, Beta, Normal, Log-Normal, Erlang, Power Function, Rayleigh, and Weibull distributions were fitted for these tasks using the maximum likelihood technique. To determine the model’s fit to the temperature data, several goodness-of-fit tests were applied, including the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Anderson-Darling test, and Chi-square test. The Beta distribution is found to be the best-fitted probability distribution based on the largest overall score derived from three specified goodness-of-fit tests for the monthly maximum temperature data at the Sylhet station.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-29
Author(s):  
Qiang Zhang ◽  
Zhanping Song ◽  
Junbao Wang ◽  
Yuwei Zhang ◽  
Tong Wang

Due to the advantages of low porosity, low permeability, high ductility, and excellent capacities for creep and damage self-healing, salt rock is internationally considered as the ideal medium for underground storage of energy and disposal of radioactive waste. As one of the most important mechanical properties of salt rock, creep properties are closely related to the long-term operation stability and safety of salt rock underground storage cavern. A comprehensive review on the creep properties and constitutive model of salt rock is put forward in this paper. The opinions and suggestions on the research priority and direction of salt rock's mechanical properties in the future are put forward: (1) permeability variation of salt rock under the coupling effect of temperature and stress; (2) damage mechanism and evolution process under the effect of creep-fatigue interaction and low frequency cyclic loading; (3) microdeformation mechanisms of salt rock and the relationship between microstructure variations and macrocreep behavior during creep process; (4) the establishment of the creep damage constitutive model with simple form, less parameters, easy application, and considering the damage self-healing ability of salt rock simultaneously.


2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 61-78 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roy L. Nersesian ◽  
Kenneth David Strang

This study discussed the theoretical literature related to developing and probability distributions for estimating uncertainty. A theoretically selected ten-year empirical sample was collected and evaluated for the Albany NY area (N=942). A discrete probability distribution model was developed and applied for part of the sample, to illustrate the likelihood of petroleum spills by industry and day of week. The benefit of this paper for the community of practice was to demonstrate how to select, develop, test and apply a probability distribution to analyze the patterns in disaster events, using inferential parametric and nonparametric statistical techniques. The method, not the model, was intended to be generalized to other researchers and populations. An interesting side benefit from this study was that it revealed significant findings about where and when most of the human-attributed petroleum leaks had occurred in the Albany NY area over the last ten years (ending in 2013). The researchers demonstrated how to develop and apply distribution models in low cost spreadsheet software (Excel).


2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hua Tong ◽  
Daqiang Guo ◽  
Xiaohua Zhu

Drilling and completing wells in deep salt stratum are technically challenging and costing, as when serving in an incomplete borehole in deep salt formation, well casing runs a high risk of collapse. To quantitatively calculate casing remaining strength under this harsh condition, a three-dimensional mechanical model is developed; then a computational model coupled with interbed salt rock-defective cement-casing and HPHT (high pressure and high temperature) is established and analyzed using multiphysics coupling FEM (finite element method); furthermore, open wellbore shrinkage and casing remaining strength under varying differential conditions in deep salt formation are discussed. The result demonstrates that the most serious shrinkage occurs at the middle of salt rock, and the combination action of salt rock creep, cement defect, and HPHT substantially lessens casing remaining strength; meanwhile, cement defect level should be taken into consideration when designing casing strength in deep salt formation, and apart from the consideration of temperature on casing the effect of temperature on cement properties also cannot be ignored. This study not only provides a theoretical basis for revealing the failure mechanism of well casing in deep complicated salt formation, but also acts as a new perspective of novel engineering applications of the multiphysics coupling FEM.


2015 ◽  
Vol 17 (41) ◽  
pp. 27862-27872 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shazia Farooq ◽  
Johannes Hohlbein

Here the authors report on significant improvements in time-resolution and throughput in camera-based single-molecule detection by combining stroboscopic alternating-laser excitation with dynamic probability distribution analysis.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document