scholarly journals How One 11-Page Bill Could Yield Billions in Annual Benefits: The Marijuana Justice Act of 2017

2019 ◽  
pp. 10-26
Author(s):  
Haley Dunn
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
The United States ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Marijuana Legalization ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Recreational Marijuana ◽  
Net Benefits

Marijuana legalization has gained traction in recent years in the United States with a variety of bipartisan supporters. Primary benefits often cited include savings in enforcement and incarceration costs, additional tax revenue and jobs, release and expungement for those incarcerated, and lowered racial and economic disproportionality in the U.S. criminal justice system. Critics often bring up health costs, increases in impaired driving, harmful effects on adolescent brain development, and greater attendant crime as possible drawbacks.This article examines the potential costs and benefits of federal marijuana legalization under the Senate version of the Marijuana Justice Act of 2017 (S. 1689) introduced in the 115th Congress, assuming 30 additional states legalize recreational marijuana and set up a regulated commercial retail system. Using an analysis that operates under a net present value over 1,000 years and reflects 2017 dollar amounts, the results are overwhelming: these combined efforts could lead to nationwide lifetime net benefits of over $168 billion, with approximately $50 billion in the first year alone, and $17 billion in tax revenue that federal and state governments could receive annually. This article also runs best- and worst-case scenario sensitivity analyses in a postenactmentuniverse—best being one in which all 50 states legalize recreational marijuana and worst being one in which no additional states legalize. Even the worst-case scenario would lead to lifetime net benefits of over $77 billion ($4 billion/year) and, in the best case, over $1.4 trillion ($75 billion/year). For all scenarios, this analysis accounts for the states that have legalized recreational marijuana as of November 5, 2018: Alaska, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Nevada, Oregon, Vermont, and Washington.

Cessation rates from a national collective social network smoking cessation programme: results from the ‘I quit smoking with Facebook on March 21’ Swiss programme

2021 ◽  
pp. tobaccocontrol-2020-056182
Author(s):  
Olivier Desrichard ◽  
Lisa S Moussaoui ◽  
Jérôme Blondé ◽  
Max Felder ◽  
Gisana Riedo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Smoking Cessation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Smoking Cessation Programme ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Quitting Smoking ◽  
Continuous Abstinence

Background Programmes for collective smoking cessation, based on the British model Stoptober, are proposed by public health units in many countries. There is a need for data estimating the rate at which participants in these programmes are successful in quitting smoking. We report a prospective study carried out as part of a large-scale collective cessation programme conducted in Switzerland in 2017.Methods 1112 participants among the 7008 smokers enrolled in the collective cessation programme were recruited before the start of the attempt. Continuous abstinence was measured 10 days, 3 months and 6 months after the start of the attempt. Participants who dropped out at follow-up were considered to have failed the attempt (worst-case scenario).Results The continuous abstinence rate was at least 37.9% at 10-day follow-up, 18.8% at 3-month follow-up and 13.1% at 6-month follow-up. Similar levels of continuous abstinence as the worst-case scenario were found in sensitivity analyses including those whose quit attempt started before the beginning of the programme and where multiple imputation was used to replace dropouts. Sensitivity analyses using complete cases or an indicator of abstinence which allows occasional lapses found around double the abstinence rates.Conclusions Our results support the potential usefulness of large-scale collective cessation campaigns and suggest that such programmes based on social networks are promising areas for future smoking cessation programme activity.

Reducing Probabilistic Weather Forecasts to the Worst Case Scenario: Anchoring Effects

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonia Savelli ◽  
Susan Joslyn ◽  
Limor Nadav-Greenberg ◽  
Queena Chen
Keyword(s):  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Anchoring Effects

scholarly journals A Comparison of Match Demands Using Ball-in-Play versus Whole Match Data in Professional Soccer Players of the English Championship

Sports ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 76
Author(s):  
Dylan Mernagh ◽  
Anthony Weldon ◽  
Josh Wass ◽  
John Phillips ◽  
Nimai Parmar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Repeated Measures ◽  
Soccer Players ◽  
Training Methods ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Repeated Measures Design ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Professional Soccer ◽  
Peak Match ◽  
Playing Time

This is the first study to report the whole match, ball-in-play (BiP), ball-out-of-play (BoP), and Max BiP (worst case scenario phases of play) demands of professional soccer players competing in the English Championship. Effective playing time per soccer game is typically <60 min. When the ball is out of play, players spend time repositioning themselves, which is likely less physically demanding. Consequently, reporting whole match demands may under-report the physical requirements of soccer players. Twenty professional soccer players, categorized by position (defenders, midfielders, and forwards), participated in this study. A repeated measures design was used to collect Global Positioning System (GPS) data over eight professional soccer matches in the English Championship. Data were divided into whole match and BiP data, and BiP data were further sub-divided into different time points (30–60 s, 60–90 s, and >90 s), providing peak match demands. Whole match demands recorded were compared to BiP and Max BiP, with BiP data excluding all match stoppages, providing a more precise analysis of match demands. Whole match metrics were significantly lower than BiP metrics (p < 0.05), and Max BiP for 30–60 s was significantly higher than periods between 60–90 s and >90 s. No significant differences were found between positions. BiP analysis allows for a more accurate representation of the game and physical demands imposed on professional soccer players. Through having a clearer understanding of maximum game demands in professional soccer, practitioners can design more specific training methods to better prepare players for worst case scenario passages of play.

scholarly journals Trissolcus japonicus (Hymenoptera: Scelionidae) Causes Low Levels of Parasitism in Three North American Pentatomids Under Field Conditions

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua M Milnes ◽  
Elizabeth H Beers
Keyword(s):  
North American ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Classical Biological Control ◽  
The United States ◽  
Host Finding ◽  
Pest Species ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Egg Masses ◽  
Trissolcus Japonicus

Abstract Trissolcus japonicus (Ashmead), an Asian parasitoid of Halyomorpha halys (Stål) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae), was first detected in North America in 2014. Although testing in quarantine facilities as a candidate for classical biological control is ongoing, adventive populations have appeared in multiple sites in the United States, Canada, and Europe. Extensive laboratory testing of T. japonicus against other North American pentatomids and H. halys has revealed a higher rate of parasitism of H. halys, but not complete host specificity. However, laboratory tests are necessarily artificial, in which many host finding and acceptance cues may be circumvented. We offered sentinel egg masses of three native pentatomid (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) pest species (Chinavia hilaris (Say), Euschistus conspersus Uhler, and Chlorochroa ligata (Say)) in a field paired-host assay in an area with a well-established adventive population of T. japonicus near Vancouver, WA. Overall, 67% of the H. halys egg masses were parasitized by T. japonicus during the 2-yr study. Despite the ‘worst case’ scenario for a field test (close proximity of the paired egg masses), the rate of parasitism (% eggs producing adult wasps) on all three native species was significantly less (0.4–8%) than that on H. halys eggs (77%). The levels of successful parasitism of T. japonicus of the three species are C. hilaris > E. conspersus > C. ligata. The potential impact of T. japonicus on these pentatomids is probably minimal.

The MacArthur Maze Fire and Roadway Collapse: A “Worst Case Scenario” for Spent Nuclear Fuel Transportation?

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher S. Bajwa ◽  
Earl P. Easton ◽  
Harold Adkins ◽  
Judith Cuta ◽  
Nicholas Klymyshyn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Nuclear Fuel ◽  
Spent Nuclear Fuel ◽  
Steel Structure ◽  
Nuclear Regulatory Commission ◽  
The United States ◽  
Severe Accident ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Work Related ◽  
Regulatory Commission

In 2007, a severe transportation accident occurred near Oakland, California, at the interchange known as the “MacArthur Maze.” The accident involved a double tanker truck of gasoline overturning and bursting into flames. The subsequent fire reduced the strength of the supporting steel structure of an overhead interstate roadway causing the collapse of portions of that overpass onto the lower roadway in less than 20 minutes. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission has analyzed what might have happened had a spent nuclear fuel transportation package been involved in this accident, to determine if there are any potential regulatory implications of this accident to the safe transport of spent nuclear fuel in the United States. This paper provides a summary of this effort, presents preliminary results and conclusions, and discusses future work related to the NRC’s analysis of the consequences of this type of severe accident.

Legal adaptability in Elbonia

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 393-408 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathias M. Siems
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Data ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
The Law

Law has to be able to respond to new or changing circumstances. This ‘legal adaptability’ may be more important than details in the ‘law as such’. However, its meaning and its significance have not yet been analysed in detail. Thus, legal adaptability will be examined in this article. It looks at the worst case scenario by discussing a fictional country (Elbonia) where legal adaptability is poor, and identifies the main adaptability criteria. By using empirical data from the three Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia), it also provides an example of how to ascertain the degree of legal adaptability of particular countries.

Discussion of the Worst Case Scenario of FLD0

2000 ◽  
Author(s):  
Naji Arwashan
Keyword(s):  
Simple Formula ◽  
Forming Limit Diagram ◽  
Forming Limit ◽  
Vertical Position ◽  
Engineering Practice ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Grid Analysis ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Minimum Value

Abstract The Forming Limit Diagram is used in circle grid analysis to check the safety of a formed panel. The shape of the Forming Limit Diagram for steel is always the same, it is only the vertical position of the diagram that varies depending on the value of FLD0. For steel, FLD0 is widely accepted to be dependent on the thickness and n value which are both inherently indeterministic, and can exhibit variations, small or large, depending on the manufacturing process. To account for this variability in determining the safety of a formed panel, the engineering practice in many companies is to use a minimum value for FLD0 called Worst Case Scenario, because it is calculated using minimum values for both t and n. This paper presents a different and better approach to calculate the minimum value of FLD0. The approach is based on probabilistic concepts, and allows the calculation of a minimum value for FLD0 that is related to a certain probability of occurrence. The derivation technique used in the paper is borrowed from Reliability Analysis and tailored to solve our problem. The derivation leads to a simple formula that can be easily used. The minimum value of FLD0 calculated according to the paper is more accurate than the Worst Case Scenario, and provides better cost saving since it is always greater than the Worst Case Scenario value.

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