Modeling and forecasting of the under-five mortality rate in Kermanshah province in Iran: a time series analysis

Proper research and analysis of mortality dynamics is essential to provide reliable economic information about any country. This paper deals with the historical comparative time series analysis of the mortality rate dynamics in the BRICS countries to determine their economic performances over the years. This article presents stochastic models based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA (p, d, q)) models of various orders with a view to identifying the optimal and comparative model for the crude death rate (CDR) in the BRICS countries. The ARIMA (p, d, q) models were formulated for the crude death rates in the BRICS countries and the overall annual crude death rate for the period 1960–2018. The optimal choice of ARIMA models of order p and q was selected for each of the series. The results indicate that the ARIMA (2, 2, 0) model was the optimal model for predicting mortality dynamics in the overall BRICS data. In addition, there was a significant decrease in trends (p-value < 2.22e-16) during the study period from 1960 to 2018. In addition, the crude death rate’s data for the BRICS countries proved to be mostly non-linear, non-seasonal and without structural breaks. Finally, the findings of this study were discussed and recognized as having relevant policy implications for forecasting, insurance planning, as well as for disaster or risk reduction in the context of unprecedented global happenings in the post-pandemic era.

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Statistical Modeling and forecasting of weather Data Distribution Using Improved Time Series Analysis

Journal of Statistics Applications & Probability ◽

10.18576/jsap/080207 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 141-154

Author(s):

Afrah Al-Bossly

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Statistical Modeling ◽

Data Distribution ◽

Weather Data ◽

Series Analysis ◽

Modeling And Forecasting

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The Association of Weather Variability and Under Five Malaria Mortality in KEMRI/CDC HDSS in Western Kenya 2003 to 2008: A Time Series Analysis

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph120201983 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 12 (2) ◽

pp. 1983-1997 ◽

Cited By ~ 12

Author(s):

Maquins Sewe ◽

Joacim Rocklöv ◽

John Williamson ◽

Mary Hamel ◽

Amek Nyaguara ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Weather Variability ◽

Western Kenya ◽

Under Five ◽

Malaria Mortality ◽

Series Analysis

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Contribution of Alcohol to Hypertension Mortality in Russia

Journal of Addiction ◽

10.1155/2014/483910 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 2014 ◽

pp. 1-6 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Y. E. Razvodovsky

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Alcohol Consumption ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Binge Drinking ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Mortality Data ◽

Effective Measure ◽

Male And Female ◽

Series Analysis

Background. Hypertension (HTN) is reported to be the leading contributor to premature death globally. Considerable research evidence suggests that excessive alcohol intake (binge drinking) is an independent risk factor for HTN. It was repeatedly emphasized that binge drinking is a major contributor to a high cardiovascular mortality rate in Russia.Objective. The aim of this study was to examine the aggregate-level relation between alcohol consumption and HTN mortality rates in Russia.Method. Age-standardized sex-specific male and female HTN mortality data for the period 1980–2005 and data on overall alcohol consumption were analyzed by means of ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) time-series analysis. The level of alcohol consumption per capita has been estimated using the indirect method based on alcohol psychoses incidence rate and employing ARIMA time-series analysis.Results. Alcohol consumption was significantly associated with both male and female HTN mortality rates: a 1-liter increase in overall alcohol consumption would result in a 6.3% increase in the male HTN mortality rate and in a 4.9% increase in female HTN mortality rate. The results of the analysis suggest that 57.5% of all male HTN deaths and 48.6% of all female HTN deaths in Russia could be attributed to alcohol.Conclusions. The outcomes of this study provide support for the hypothesis that alcohol is an important contributor to the high HTN mortality rate in the Russian Federation. The findings from the present study have important implications with to regards HTN mortality prevention, indicating that a restrictive alcohol policy can be considered as an effective measure of prevention in countries with a higher rate of alcohol consumption.

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Evaluation of the impact of the NICE head injury guidelines on inpatient mortality from traumatic brain injury: an interrupted time series analysis

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2019-028912 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 9 (6) ◽

pp. e028912 ◽

Cited By ~ 5

Author(s):

Carl Marincowitz ◽

Fiona Lecky ◽

Victoria Allgar ◽

Trevor Sheldon

Keyword(s):

Time Series ◽

Head Injury ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

Time Series Analysis ◽

Interrupted Time Series ◽

Age Group ◽

Interrupted Time Series Analysis ◽

Admission Rates ◽

Series Analysis ◽

The Impact

ObjectiveTo evaluate the impact of National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) head injury guidelines on deaths and hospital admissions caused by traumatic brain injury (TBI).SettingAll hospitals in England between 1998 and 2017.ParticipantsPatients admitted to hospital or who died up to 30 days following hospital admission with International Classification of Diseases (ICD) coding indicating the reason for admission or death was TBI.InterventionAn interrupted time series analysis was conducted with intervention points when each of the three guidelines was introduced. Analysis was stratified by guideline recommendation specific age groups (0–15, 16–64 and 65+).Outcome measuresThe monthly population mortality and admission rates for TBI.Study designAn interrupted time series analysis using complete Office of National Statistics cause of death data linked to hospital episode statistics for inpatient admissions in England.ResultsThe monthly TBI mortality and admission rates in the 65+ age group increased from 0.5 to 1.5 and 10 to 30 per 100 000 population, respectively. The increasing mortality rate was unaffected by the introduction of any of the guidelines.The introduction of the second NICE head injury guideline was associated with a significant reduction in the monthly TBI mortality rate in the 16–64 age group (-0.005; 95% CI: −0.002 to −0.007).In the 0–15 age group the TBI mortality rate fell from around 0.05 to 0.01 per 100 000 population and this trend was unaffected by any guideline.ConclusionThe introduction of NICE head injury guidelines was associated with a reduced admitted TBI mortality rate after specialist care was recommended for severe TBI. The improvement was solely observed in patients aged 16–64 years.The cause of the observed increased admission and mortality rates in those 65+ and potential treatments for TBI in this age group require further investigation.

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