Ambient Air Pollution and Mortality Rate in Nigeria: An ARDL Approach

The study on ambient air pollution and mortality rate in Nigeria is an attempt to evaluate the effect of ambient air pollution proxied by carbon dioxide on non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory disease related mortality in Nigeria from 1970-2019. Time series data adopted from World Development Indicators were analyzed using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model. Results suggest a positive relationship between CO2 and crude death rate in Nigeria. Thus, the result of ARDL for lnCruder as the dependent variable showed that carbon dioxide emission was positively related to the crude death rate. Consequently, one unit increase in the quantity of carbon dioxide emission increased the death rate by 19% at lag 1, all things being equal. A similar result was obtained for CO2 and life expectancy where carbon dioxide emission was found to have a negative effect on life expectancy. The study concludes that carbon dioxide emission has a negative effect on human health and causes death in human beings. Therefore, further study is recommended on ways of abating carbon dioxide emissions through the use of technologies that generate less carbon dioxide and the adoption of domestic practices that reduce the quantity of CO2 produced in the environment.

A comparative time series analysis of crude mortality rate in the BRICS countries

Proper research and analysis of mortality dynamics is essential to provide reliable economic information about any country. This paper deals with the historical comparative time series analysis of the mortality rate dynamics in the BRICS countries to determine their economic performances over the years. This article presents stochastic models based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA (p, d, q)) models of various orders with a view to identifying the optimal and comparative model for the crude death rate (CDR) in the BRICS countries. The ARIMA (p, d, q) models were formulated for the crude death rates in the BRICS countries and the overall annual crude death rate for the period 1960–2018. The optimal choice of ARIMA models of order p and q was selected for each of the series. The results indicate that the ARIMA (2, 2, 0) model was the optimal model for predicting mortality dynamics in the overall BRICS data. In addition, there was a significant decrease in trends (p-value < 2.22e-16) during the study period from 1960 to 2018. In addition, the crude death rate’s data for the BRICS countries proved to be mostly non-linear, non-seasonal and without structural breaks. Finally, the findings of this study were discussed and recognized as having relevant policy implications for forecasting, insurance planning, as well as for disaster or risk reduction in the context of unprecedented global happenings in the post-pandemic era.

Survey evidence of excess mortality in Bihar in the second COVID-19 surge

The second surge of COVID-19 had a large mortality impact in India. However, there are few reliable estimates of the magnitude of this impact for India’s poorer states. This note presents results of a small-scale phone survey in Bihar which interviewed a random sample of beneficiaries of the state’s Public Distribution System. This pilot survey was conducted in June 2021 and asked more than 500 respondents about any deaths in their household since April 1, 2021.We observe an annualized Crude Death Rate of 24.3 deaths per 1,000 [95% CI 13.0-37.4] during the second surge of the pandemic in Bihar. The observed death rate is more than four times baseline mortality (5.8 deaths per 1,000 per year). The probability that mortality during the second surge was at least thrice the level of baseline mortality is 0.88. This large surge in mortality warrants an urgent public discussion on state priorities in Bihar. It also suggests the viability of and need for continuous large-scale mortality surveys.

Beyond deaths per capita: comparative COVID-19 mortality indicators

ObjectivesFollowing well-established practices in demography, this article discusses several measures based on the number of COVID-19 deaths to facilitate comparisons over time and across populations.SettingsNational populations in 186 United Nations countries and territories and populations in first-level subnational administrative entities in Brazil, China, Italy, Mexico, Peru, Spain and the USA.ParticipantsNone (death statistics only).Primary and secondary outcome measuresAn unstandardised occurrence/exposure rate comparable to the Crude Death Rate; an indirectly age-and-sex standardised rate that can be derived even when the breakdown of COVID-19 deaths by age and sex required for direct standardisation is unavailable; the reduction in life expectancy at birth corresponding to the 2020 number of COVID-19 deaths.ResultsTo date, the highest unstandardised rate has been in New York, at its peak exceeding the state 2017 crude death rate. Populations compare differently after standardisation: while parts of Italy, Spain and the USA have the highest unstandardised rates, parts of Mexico and Peru have the highest standardised rates. For several populations with the necessary data by age and sex for direct standardisation, we show that direct and indirect standardisation yield similar results. US life expectancy is estimated to have declined this year by more than a year (−1.26 years), far more than during the worst year of the HIV epidemic, or the worst 3 years of the opioid crisis, and to reach its lowest level since 2008. Substantially larger reductions, exceeding 2 years, are estimated for Panama, Peru, and parts of Italy, Spain, the USA and especially, Mexico.ConclusionsWith lesser demand on data than direct standardisation, indirect standardisation is a valid alternative to adjust international comparisons for differences in population distribution by sex and age-groups. A number of populations have experienced reductions in 2020 life expectancies that are substantial by recent historical standards.

Clinical Profile of Mortality among Chronic Schizophrenic Patients: A Local Pilot Survey in Iran

Background: Many scholars believe that mental disorders may increase the risk of mortality among psychiatric patients in comparison with ordinary people. Unfortunately, since there is no systematic psychiatric case register system in Iran, a precise study of the rate of mortality of psychiatric patients in Iran is not easy. Objective: The objective of the current study included estimation of the rate of mortality and clinical profile of the died patients in a group of non-western aged schizophrenic patients. Methods: Senior section of Razi psychiatric hospital was selected as the specific field of investigation, and all elderly schizophrenic patients (≥65 years old), who had been hospitalized there, were nominated as the accessible sample and estimated with respect to the objectives of the present assessment. For survey, all deaths in the said district, which had occurred throughout the last sixty months (April of 2014-August 2019), had been listed by the supervisor of the mortality committee of the hospital. The clinical diagnosis was based on ‘Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders’, 5th edition, criteria. Results: Among 840 chronic elderly schizophrenic patients, 69 deaths were registered by the mortality committee of the hospital. As evident by the results, the annual rate of mortality among elderly schizophrenic patients in the present assessment was around 0.015 (0.15 per 1,000 individuals per year) and 0.017 (0.17 per 1,000 individuals per year) among male and female aged patients, respectively, which was significantly lower than the native crude death rate. While the average age of the expired female patients was significantly longer than male cases, the life expectancy of both male and female patients was significantly shorter than the life expectancy of native people. Besides, while among the present sample of old schizophrenics cardiac disease was the main leading cause of death, other causes, like violence, suicide, road traffic accidents, falls, fires, drug use, tuberculosis, drowning, epilepsy, and Parkinson’s disease were not liable at all. Conclusion: While the rate of mortality among aged schizophrenics was significantly lower than the native crude death rate, the age of the expired female patients was significantly longer than the male cases and the life expectancy of both male and female patients was significantly shorter than the life expectancy of native people. Cardiac disorder was the leading cause of death among the present sample of aged schizophrenics.

The role of population structure when measuring COVID-19 impact across countries

The search for accurate indicators to compare the pandemic impact between countries is still a challenge. The crude death rate, case fatality rate by country and sex, standardized fatality rate, and standardized death rate were calculated using data from Argentina and Colombia countries. We show that even when frequently used indicator as deaths per million are quite similar, 512 deaths per million in Argentina and 522 deaths per million in Colombia, a significant heterogeneity can be found when the mortality data is decomposed by sex or age.

Road traffic mortality in Russia: definitions, trends and perspectives

In 2016, the crude death rate from road traffic accidents in Russia decreased, according to police data, to a level not observed since 1971, after which it continued to decline. The positive trends apparently served as the basis for the optimistic goals laid down in the Road Safety Strategy for 2018-2024. Based on police data, vital statistics on mortality and international databases on mortality and road safety, the authors try to answer these questions: Are the goals set achievable within the specified timeframe, and how consistent are they with European trends in road traffic mortality, as well as with Russia's present differentiation of road traffic mortality by space, age and category of road users? The study showed that the deadlines for achieving targets in the Road Safety Strategy are very tight. Today, only large and medium-sized cities have the potential to implement a new Road Safety Strategy in which the crude death rate should not exceed 1.5-2 deaths per 100 thousand people by 2024, whereas in small cities and rural settlements - 2.5-3 deaths per 100 thousand people. For many years, the main risk groups have been drivers and passengers aged 15-44 and pedestrians over 60 years old, who do not appear in the Road Safety Strategy as priority categories. In addition, the article shows that in order to eliminate the existing discrepancies between the numbers of deaths published by the two official reporting systems (the police and Rosstat), the very first step might be for Rosstat to stop calculating the number of road traffic deaths based on the current version of the abridged classification of causes of death and transition to one of the two international approaches for aggregating three-digit codes of causes of death used by the WHO.

Socioeconomic inequality and COVID-19 prevalence across municipalities in Catalonia, Spain

This study provides preliminary evidence regarding associations between socioeconomic inequalities and variations in the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases across 923 municipalities in Catalonia, Spain, as of the 14th of May, 2020. We consider three types of inequalities at municipality-level: 1) economic development, i.e., unemployment rate, average income, immigrants proportion, and the prevalence of small residence; 2) health vulnerability, i.e., crude death rate and the proportion of elderly (aged 65 +) population; and 3) information communication, i.e., the proportion of people with tertiary education. In addition to the static analysis with the total sum of COVID-19 cases, the dynamic analysis with daily moving weekly sum of cases is conducted. The result draws a rather complex picture of relationships between contextual socioeconomic inequalities and the spread of COVID-19. Many indicators of economic inequalities imply the opposite relationship as intuitively suggested: economically disadvantaged municipalities tend to have less cases of confirmed infection than economically advantaged counterparts. The implications from health inequality indicators show mixed patterns: crude death rate is positively associated, but elderly population is negatively associated, with the number of confirmed cases. The indicator of information inequality shows a consistent tendency, i.e., municipalities with more university educated have less confirmed cases, but this tendency transforms across time: the negative association is particularly strong during the first month of Spanish “state of alarm” measure (mid-March to mid-April). Our evidence suggests the need for more careful consideration regarding the association between socioeconomic inequalities and the regional progression of COVID-19 pandemic.

Beyond Deaths per Capita: Comparative CoViD-19 Mortality Indicators

The number of CoViD-19 deaths more reliably tracks the progression of the disease across populations than the number of confirmed cases. Substantial age and sex differences in CoViD-19 death rates imply that the number of deaths should be adjusted not just for the total size of the population, but also for its age-and-sex distribution. Following well-established practices in demography, this article discusses several measures based on the number of CoViD-19 deaths over time and across populations. The first measure is an unstandardized occurrence/exposure rate comparable to the Crude Death Rate. To date, the highest value has been in New York, where at its peak it exceeded the state 2017 Crude Death Rate. The second measure is an indirectly standardized rate that can be derived even when the breakdown of CoViD-19 deaths by age and sex required for direct standardization is unavailable. For populations with such breakdowns, we show that direct and indirect standardization yield similar results.Standardization modifies comparison across populations: while New Jersey now has the highest unstandardized rate, Baja California (Mexico) has the highest standardized rate. Finally, extant life tables allow to estimate reductions in life expectancy at birth. In the US, life expectancy is projected to decline this year by more (-.68) than the worst year of the HIV epidemic, or the worst three years of the opioid crisis, and to reach its lowest level since 2008. Substantially larger reductions, exceeding two years, are projected for Ecuador, Chile, New York, New Jersey and Peru.

Local Estimation of Rate and Clinical Outline of Mortality in Old Schizophrenics

Introduction: Researchers have consistently reported that people with mental disorders have elevated mortality compared with the general population. In Iran there are not systematic psychiatric case registers that could allow us to study precisely the mortality of psychiatric patients. The aim of the current study was to determine the mortality rate and clinical profile of death in a group of non-western chronic elderly schizophrenic patients. Methods: chronic geriatric subdivision of Razi Psychiatric hospital with a capacity around 220 beds (110 for each of male and female elderly patients) had been selected as the specific arena of investigation. For the present retrospective survey, all recorded deceases during the last sixty months (April of 2014-August 2019) in the said senior wards had been included in the current study. Clinical diagnosis, too, was essentially based on ‘Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders’, 5th edition (DSM-5). Results: Among eight-hundreds and frothy chronic elderly schizophrenic patients, sixty-nine deceases had been registered by the mortality committee of the hospital. As said by results, the annual rate of mortality among elderly schizophrenic patients in the present assessment was around 0.015 (0.15 per 1,000 individuals per year) and 0.017 (0.17 per 1,000 individuals per year) among male and female aged patients, respectively, which were significantly lower than current native crude death rate (p<0.000). While the age of the expired female patients was significantly more than the died male schizophrenics (p < 0.001), the life expectancy of both male and female expired patients was significantly shorter than the public’s life expectancy (p< 0.000). Besides, in the present evaluation, while cardiac illness was the main leading cause of death among old schizophrenics, reasons like suicide, falls, drug use or tuberculosis, were not applicable at all. Conclusion: While the rate of mortality among elderly schizophrenics was significantly lower than public’s crude death rate, age of the deceased female patients was significantly longer than the male expired patients and life expectancy of both male and female died patients was significantly lower than native public’s life expectancy. Cardiac disorder, as well, was the main leading cause of death among aged schizophrenic patients.