Quantitative Risk Assessment of Verocytotoxin-Producing Escherichia coli O157 and Campylobacter jejuni Related to Consumption of Raw Milk in a Province in Northern Italy

2012 ◽  
Vol 75 (11) ◽  
pp. 2031-2038 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. GIACOMETTI ◽  
A. SERRAINO ◽  
P. BONILAURI ◽  
F. OSTANELLO ◽  
P. DAMINELLI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Campylobacter Jejuni ◽  
Dose Response ◽  
National Level ◽  
Raw Milk ◽  
Storage Conditions ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Milk Consumption ◽  
Age Group

A quantitative risk assessment was developed to describe the risk of campylobacteriosis and hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) linked to consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Northern Italy. Exposure assessment considered the microbiological status of dairy farms, expected milk contamination, storage conditions from bulk tank to home storage, microbial growth during storage, destruction experiments, consumption frequency of raw milk, age of consumers, serving size, and consumption preference. The differential risk between milk handled under regulation conditions (4°C throughout all phases) and the worst field handling conditions was considered. The probability of Campylobacter jejuni infection was modeled with a single-hit dose-response beta-Poisson model, whereas for HUS an exponential dose-response model was chosen and two probabilities were used to model the higher susceptibility of children younger than 5 years old. For every 10,000 to 20,000 consumers each year, the models predicted for the best and worst storage conditions, respectively, 2.12 and 1.14 campylobacteriosis cases and 0.02 and 0.09 HUS cases in the 0- to 5-year age group and 0.1 and 0.5 HUS cases in the >5-year age group. The expected pediatric HUS cases do not differ considerably from those reported in Italy by the Minister of Health. The model developed may be a useful tool for extending the assessment of the risk of campylobacteriosis and HUS due to raw milk consumption at the national level in Italy. Considering the epidemiological implications of this study, the risk of illness linked to raw milk consumption should not be ignored and could be reduced by the use of simple measures. Boiling milk before consumption and strict control of temperatures by farmers during raw milk distribution have significant effects on campylobacteriosis and HUS and are essential measures for risk management.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Human Salmonellosis and Listeriosis Related to the Consumption of Raw Milk in Italy

2015 ◽  
Vol 78 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
FEDERICA GIACOMETTI ◽  
PAOLO BONILAURI ◽  
SABRINA ALBONETTI ◽  
SIMONETTA AMATISTE ◽  
NORMA ARRIGONI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Consumer Behavior ◽  
Dose Response ◽  
Raw Milk ◽  
Storage Conditions ◽  
Entire Population ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Public Health Perspective ◽  
Vending Machines ◽  
Milk Storage

Two quantitative risk assessment (RA) models were developed to describe the risk of salmonellosis and listeriosis linked to consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Italy. Exposure assessment considered the official microbiological records monitoring raw milk samples from vending machines performed by the regional veterinary authorities from 2008 to 2011, microbial growth during storage, destruction experiments, consumption frequency of raw milk, serving size, and consumption preference. Two separate RA models were developed: one for the consumption of boiled milk and the other for the consumption of raw milk. The RA models predicted no human listeriosis cases per year either in the best or worst storage conditions and with or without boiling raw milk, whereas the annual estimated cases of salmonellosis depend on the dose-response relationships used in the model, the milk storage conditions, and consumer behavior in relation to boiling raw milk or not. For example, the estimated salmonellosis cases ranged from no expected cases, assuming that the entire population boiled milk before consumption, to a maximum of 980,128 cases, assuming that the entire population drank raw milk without boiling, in the worst milk storage conditions, and with the lowest dose-response model. The findings of this study clearly show how consumer behavior could affect the probability and number of salmonellosis cases and in general, the risk of illness. Hence, the proposed RA models emphasize yet again that boiling milk before drinking is a simple yet effective tool to protect consumers against the risk of illness inherent in the consumption of raw milk. The models may also offer risk managers a useful tool to identify or implement appropriate measures to control the risk of acquiring foodborne pathogens. Quantification of the risks associated with raw milk consumption is necessary from a public health perspective.

scholarly journals Quantitative risk assessment of Bacillus cereus in pasteurised milk produced in the Slovak Republic

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (No. 2) ◽  
pp. 122-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Ačai ◽  
Ľ. Valík ◽  
D. Liptáková
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bacillus Cereus ◽  
Exposure Assessment ◽  
Dose Response ◽  
Slovak Republic ◽  
Reporting Rate ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Milk Consumption ◽  
Using Data

Quantitative risk assessment of Bacillus cereus using data from pasteurised milk produced in Slovakia was performed. Monte Carlo simulations were used for probability calculation of B. cereus density at the time of pasteurised milk consumption for several different scenarios. The results of the general case exposure assessment indicated that almost 14% of cartons can contain &gt; 10<sup>4</sup> CFU/ml of B. cereus at the time of pasteurised milk consumption. Despite the absence of a generally applicable dose-response relationship that limits a full risk assessment, the probability of intoxication per serving and the estimated number of cases in the population were calculated for the general exposure assessment scenario using an exponential dose-response model based on Slovak data. The mean number of annual cases provided by the risk assessment model for pasteurised milk produced in Slovakia was 0.054/100 000 population. In comparison, the overall reporting rate of the outbreaks in the EU in which B. cereus toxins were the causative agent was 0.02/100 000 population in 2010. Our assessment is in accordance with a generally accepted fact that reporting data for alimentary intoxication are underestimated, mostly due to the short duration of the illness. &nbsp;

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Viral Contamination of Shellfish and Coastal Waters

1993 ◽  
Vol 56 (12) ◽  
pp. 1043-1050 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOAN B. ROSE ◽  
MARK D. SOBSEY
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Dose Response ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Enteric Virus ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Viral Contamination

Human pathogenic viruses have been detected from approved shellfish harvesting waters based on the fecal coliform indicator. Until recently it was difficult to assess viral contamination and the potential impact on public health. Risk assessment is a valuable tool which can be used to estimate adverse effects associated with microbial hazards. This report describes the use of quantitative risk assessment for evaluating potential human health impacts associated with exposure to viral contamination of shellfish. The four fundamental steps used in a formal risk assessment are described within and include i) Hazard identification, ii) Dose-response determination, iii) Exposure assessment, and iv) Risk characterization. Dose-response models developed from human feeding studies were used to evaluate the risk of infection from contaminated shellfish. Of 58 pooled samples, 19% were found to be positive for viruses. Using an echovirus-12 probability model, the individual risk was determined for consumption of 60 g of raw shellfish. Individual risks ranged from 2.2 × 10−4 to 3.5 × 10−2. These data suggest that individuals consuming raw shellfish from approved waters in the United States may have on the average a 1 in 100 chance of becoming infected with an enteric virus. Using the rotavirus model which represents a more infectious virus, the risk rose to 5 in 10. The potential for use of a risk assessment approach for developing priorities and strategies for control of disease is immense. Epidemiological data have demonstrated the significance of shellfish-associated viral disease and, although limited, appropriate virus occurrence data are available. Additional information on virus occurrence and exposure is needed, and then scientific risk assessment can be used to better assure the safety of seafood.

Dairy Products, Produce and Other Non-Meat Foods as Possible Sources of Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli Enteritis

1986 ◽  
Vol 49 (5) ◽  
pp. 347-351 ◽  
Author(s):  
NOREEN V. HARRIS ◽  
TERRI KIMBALL ◽  
NOEL S. WEISS ◽  
CHARLES NOLAN
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
Campylobacter Jejuni ◽  
Dairy Products ◽  
Puget Sound ◽  
Raw Milk ◽  
Campylobacter Coli ◽  
Milk Consumption ◽  
Group Health ◽  
R Factors

To determine the role of dairy products and produce in the occurence of Campylobacter jejuni and Campylobacter coli (CJC) enteritis, we analyzed dietary histories obtained from 218 persons with Campylobacter enteritis who were diagnosed by culture betwen April, 1982, and September, 1983. For comparison, similar histories were obtained from 526 persons without CJC enteritis. Both ill and well subjects were enrollees of the Group Health Cooperative of Puget Sound (GHC). Raw milk (relative risk (RR) = 4.6) and mushrooms (RR = 1.5) were the only non-meat foods consumed significantly more often by cases than by controls. Cases infected with strains carrying plasmid-mediated tetracyline resistance (R factors) were somewhat more likely (RR = 8.5) than those infected with other strains (RR = 2.5) to have acquired their infections from raw milk (P = 0.03). In this population, approximately 10% of the tetracycline-resistant CJC infections were attributable to raw milk consumption as compared to only 2% of the infections with tetracycline-sensitive strains.

scholarly journals Determining the Risk Level of Heavy Rain Damage by Region in South Korea

Water ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 219
Author(s):  
Jongsung Kim ◽  
Donghyun Kim ◽  
Myungjin Lee ◽  
Heechan Han ◽  
Hung Soo Kim
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
National Level ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Disaster Prevention ◽  
Qualitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Regional Risk

For risk assessment, two methods, quantitative risk assessment and qualitative risk assessment, are used. In this study, we identified the regional risk level for a disaster-prevention plan for an overall area at the national level using qualitative risk assessment. To overcome the limitations of previous studies, a heavy rain damage risk index (HDRI) was proposed by clarifying the framework and using the indicator selection principle. Using historical damage data, we also carried out hierarchical cluster analysis to identify the major damage types that were not considered in previous risk-assessment studies. The result of the risk-level analysis revealed that risk levels are relatively high in some cities in South Korea where heavy rain damage occurs frequently or is severe. Five causes of damage were derived from this study—A: landslides, B: river inundation, C: poor drainage in arable areas, D: rapid water velocity, and E: inundation in urban lowlands. Finally, a prevention project was proposed considering regional risk level and damage type in this study. Our results can be used when macroscopically planning mid- to long-term disaster prevention projects.

Some implications for quantitative risk assessment if hormesis exists

1998 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 259-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert L Sielken ◽  
Donald E Stevenson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Dose Level ◽  
Dose Response ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Upper And Lower Bounds ◽  
Weight Of Evidence ◽  
Adverse Health Effects ◽  
Response Information ◽  
Relevant Dose

The existence of hormesis should impact quantitative risk assessment in at least seven fundamental ways. (1) The dose-reponse models for bioassay and epidemiological data should have greater flexibility to fit the observed shape of the dose-response data and no longer be forced to always be linearly increasing at low doses. (2) Experimental designs should be altered to provide greater opportunity to identify the hormetic component of a dose-response relationship. (3) Rather than a lifetime average daily dose or its analog for shorter time periods, dose scales or metrics should be used that reflect the age or time dependence of the dose level. (4) Low-dose risk characterization should include the likelihood of bene-ficial effects and the likelihood that a dose level has reasonable certainty of no appreciable adverse health effects. (5) Exposure assessments should make greater efforts to characterize the distribution of actual doses from exposure rather than just upper bounds. (6) Uncertainty characterizations should be expanded to include both upper and lower bounds, and there should be an increased explicit use of expert judgement and weight-of-evidence based distributional analyses reflecting more of the available relevant dose-response information and alternative risk characterizations. (7) Risk should be characterized in terms of the net effect of a dose on health rather than a dose's effect on a single factor affecting health - for example, risk would be better expressed in terms of mortality from all causes combined rather than a specific type of fatal disease.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Haemolytic and Uremic Syndrome Linked to O157:H7 and Non-O157:H7 Shiga-Toxin ProducingEscherichia coliStrains in Raw Milk Soft Cheeses

Risk Analysis ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frédérique Perrin ◽  
Fanny Tenenhaus-Aziza ◽  
Valérie Michel ◽  
Stéphane Miszczycha ◽  
Nadège Bel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Shiga Toxin ◽  
Raw Milk ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Uremic Syndrome
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