Quantitative Risk Assessment for Viral Contamination of Shellfish and Coastal Waters

1993 ◽  
Vol 56 (12) ◽  
pp. 1043-1050 ◽  
Author(s):  
JOAN B. ROSE ◽  
MARK D. SOBSEY
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Dose Response ◽  
Probability Model ◽  
Enteric Virus ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Viral Contamination

Human pathogenic viruses have been detected from approved shellfish harvesting waters based on the fecal coliform indicator. Until recently it was difficult to assess viral contamination and the potential impact on public health. Risk assessment is a valuable tool which can be used to estimate adverse effects associated with microbial hazards. This report describes the use of quantitative risk assessment for evaluating potential human health impacts associated with exposure to viral contamination of shellfish. The four fundamental steps used in a formal risk assessment are described within and include i) Hazard identification, ii) Dose-response determination, iii) Exposure assessment, and iv) Risk characterization. Dose-response models developed from human feeding studies were used to evaluate the risk of infection from contaminated shellfish. Of 58 pooled samples, 19% were found to be positive for viruses. Using an echovirus-12 probability model, the individual risk was determined for consumption of 60 g of raw shellfish. Individual risks ranged from 2.2 × 10−4 to 3.5 × 10−2. These data suggest that individuals consuming raw shellfish from approved waters in the United States may have on the average a 1 in 100 chance of becoming infected with an enteric virus. Using the rotavirus model which represents a more infectious virus, the risk rose to 5 in 10. The potential for use of a risk assessment approach for developing priorities and strategies for control of disease is immense. Epidemiological data have demonstrated the significance of shellfish-associated viral disease and, although limited, appropriate virus occurrence data are available. Additional information on virus occurrence and exposure is needed, and then scientific risk assessment can be used to better assure the safety of seafood.

Some implications for quantitative risk assessment if hormesis exists

1998 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 259-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert L Sielken ◽  
Donald E Stevenson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Dose Level ◽  
Dose Response ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Upper And Lower Bounds ◽  
Weight Of Evidence ◽  
Adverse Health Effects ◽  
Response Information ◽  
Relevant Dose

The existence of hormesis should impact quantitative risk assessment in at least seven fundamental ways. (1) The dose-reponse models for bioassay and epidemiological data should have greater flexibility to fit the observed shape of the dose-response data and no longer be forced to always be linearly increasing at low doses. (2) Experimental designs should be altered to provide greater opportunity to identify the hormetic component of a dose-response relationship. (3) Rather than a lifetime average daily dose or its analog for shorter time periods, dose scales or metrics should be used that reflect the age or time dependence of the dose level. (4) Low-dose risk characterization should include the likelihood of bene-ficial effects and the likelihood that a dose level has reasonable certainty of no appreciable adverse health effects. (5) Exposure assessments should make greater efforts to characterize the distribution of actual doses from exposure rather than just upper bounds. (6) Uncertainty characterizations should be expanded to include both upper and lower bounds, and there should be an increased explicit use of expert judgement and weight-of-evidence based distributional analyses reflecting more of the available relevant dose-response information and alternative risk characterizations. (7) Risk should be characterized in terms of the net effect of a dose on health rather than a dose's effect on a single factor affecting health - for example, risk would be better expressed in terms of mortality from all causes combined rather than a specific type of fatal disease.

Applying the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) to Improve Safety Management of Oil and Gas Pipeline Stations in China

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenxing Feng ◽  
Xiaoqiang Xiang ◽  
Guangming Jia ◽  
Lianshuang Dai ◽  
Yulei Gu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Environmental Protection ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Industrial Safety ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Land Resource ◽  
Oil Pipeline

The oil and gas pipeline companies in China are facing unprecedented opportunities and challenges because of China’s increasing demand for oil and gas energy that is attributed to rapid economic and social development. Limitation of land resource and the fast urbanization lead to a determinate result that many pipelines have to go through or be adjacent to highly populated areas such as cities or towns. The increasing Chinese government regulation, and public concerns about industrial safety and environmental protection push the pipeline companies to enhance the safety, health and environmental protection management. In recent years, PetroChina Pipeline Company (PPC) pays a lot of attention and effort to improve employees and public safety around the pipeline facilities. A comprehensive, integrated HSE management system is continuously improved and effectively implemented in PPC. PPC conducts hazard identification, risk assessment, risk control and mitigation, risk monitoring. For the oil and gas stations in highly populated area or with numerous employees, PPC carries out quantitative risk assessment (QRA) to evaluate and manage the population risk. To make the assessment, “Guidelines for quantitative risk assessments” (purple book) published by Committee for the Prevention of Disasters of Netherlands is used along with a software package. The basic principles, process, and methods of QRA technology are introduced in this article. The process is to identify the station hazards, determinate the failure scenarios of the facilities, estimate the possibilities of leakage failures, calculate the consequences of failures and damages to population, demonstrate the individual risk and social risk, and evaluate whether the risk is acceptable. The process may involve the mathematical modeling of fluid and gas spill, dispersion, fire and explosion. One QRA case in an oil pipeline station is described in this article to illustrate the application process and discuss several key issues in the assessment. Using QRA technique, about 20 stations have been evaluated in PPC. On the basis of the results, managers have taken prevention and mitigation plans to control the risk. QRAs in the pipeline station can provide a quantitative basis and valuable reference for the company’s decision-making and land use planning. Also, QRA can play a role to make a better relationship between the pipeline companies and the local regulator and public. Finally, this article delivers limitations of QRA in Chinese pipeline stations and discusses issues of the solutions.

scholarly journals Monitoring and Quantitative Human Risk Assessment of Municipal Solid Waste Landfill Using Integrated Satellite–UAV–Ground Survey Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 4496
Author(s):  
Shuai Zhang ◽  
Yunhong Lv ◽  
Haiben Yang ◽  
Yingyue Han ◽  
Jingyu Peng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Municipal Solid Waste ◽  
Solid Waste ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Pore Water Pressure ◽  
Water Pressure ◽  
Hazard Identification ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Human Risk ◽  
Ground Survey

Landfills are the dominant method of municipal solid waste (MSW) disposal in many developing countries, which are extremely susceptible to failure under circumstances of high pore water pressure and insufficient compaction. Catastrophic landfill failures have occurred worldwide, causing large numbers of fatalities. Tianziling landfill, one of the largest engineered sanitary landfills in China, has experienced massive deformation since January 2020, making early identification and monitoring of great significance for the purpose of risk management. The human risk posed by potential landfill failures also needs to be quantitatively evaluated. The interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technique, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry, and ground measurements were combined to obtain landfill deformation data in this study. The integrated satellite–UAV–ground survey (ISUGS) approach ensures a comprehensive understanding of landfill deformation and evolution. The deformation characteristics obtained using the InSAR technique and UAV photogrammetry were analyzed and compared. A close relationship between the most severe mobility events, precipitation episodes, and was observed. Based on early hazard identification using ISUGS, a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) method and F-N curves were proposed, which can be applied to landfills. The comparison showed that ISUGS allowed a better understanding of the spatial and temporal evolution of the landfill and more accurate QRA results, which could be as references for local governments to take effective precautions.

scholarly journals Quantitative risk assessment of Bacillus cereus in pasteurised milk produced in the Slovak Republic

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (No. 2) ◽  
pp. 122-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Ačai ◽  
Ľ. Valík ◽  
D. Liptáková
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bacillus Cereus ◽  
Exposure Assessment ◽  
Dose Response ◽  
Slovak Republic ◽  
Reporting Rate ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Milk Consumption ◽  
Using Data

Quantitative risk assessment of Bacillus cereus using data from pasteurised milk produced in Slovakia was performed. Monte Carlo simulations were used for probability calculation of B. cereus density at the time of pasteurised milk consumption for several different scenarios. The results of the general case exposure assessment indicated that almost 14% of cartons can contain &gt; 10<sup>4</sup> CFU/ml of B. cereus at the time of pasteurised milk consumption. Despite the absence of a generally applicable dose-response relationship that limits a full risk assessment, the probability of intoxication per serving and the estimated number of cases in the population were calculated for the general exposure assessment scenario using an exponential dose-response model based on Slovak data. The mean number of annual cases provided by the risk assessment model for pasteurised milk produced in Slovakia was 0.054/100 000 population. In comparison, the overall reporting rate of the outbreaks in the EU in which B. cereus toxins were the causative agent was 0.02/100 000 population in 2010. Our assessment is in accordance with a generally accepted fact that reporting data for alimentary intoxication are underestimated, mostly due to the short duration of the illness. &nbsp;

scholarly journals Microbial risk assessment for recreational use of the Chicago Area Waterway System

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 169-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. Rijal ◽  
J. K. Tolson ◽  
C. Petropoulou ◽  
T. C. Granato ◽  
A. Glymph ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Environmental Protection Agency ◽  
Enteric Virus ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
The United States ◽  
Current Treatment ◽  
Microbial Risk Assessment ◽  
Microbial Risk ◽  
Chicago Area ◽  
Wet Weather

A microbial risk assessment was conducted to estimate the human health risks from incidental contact recreational activities such as canoeing, boating and fishing in the Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS) receiving secondary treated, but non-disinfected, effluent from three municipal water reclamation plants. Actual concentrations of the pathogens (pathogenic E. coli [estimated], Giardia, Cryptosporidium, adenovirus, norovirus, enteric virus) detected from the waterway field data collection at locations upstream and downstream of the effluent outfall during dry and wet weather conditions within the recreation season were included in the risk assessment. The results under the current treatment scheme with no disinfection indicated that the total expected gastrointestinal illness (GI) rate per 1000 incidental contact recreational exposure events during combined weather (dry and wet) conditions ranged from 0.10 to 2.78 in the CAWS, which is below the eight illnesses per 1000 swimmers considered tolerable by the United States Environmental Protection Agency. Wet weather conditions contribute to elevated pathogen load to the CAWS; therefore this study determined that disinfecting the effluents of three major WRPs that discharge to the CAWS would result in an extremely small reduction in the aggregate recreation season risk to incidental contact recreators.

Technical safety: use of concept risk assessment for field development certainty

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 549
Author(s):  
Colin Crowley ◽  
Dave Ashton
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Design Feature ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Field Development ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Rule Sets ◽  
Risk Reduction Measures

As technology advances and field development possibilities grow, the need for earlier guidance on the safety performance of concept designs is greater than ever. The SNC-Lavalin concept risk assessment (CRA) tool is a transparent and rapidly deployable model that is based on sound, industry-accepted quantitative risk assessment (QRA) principles. From the earliest stages of field development, when conceptualisation may be vague and data sparse, a wide range and variety of design options can still be assessed effectively and ranked on their safety performance. The CRA tool is proprietary software initially developed with BP and Shell. The model was first calibrated against 10 detailed QRAs, but is regularly benchmarked and updated with the most current failure rate data and has been used on nearly 50 projects globally. The database now incorporates established rule sets from hundreds of detailed QRAs performed, including floating liquefied natural gas and floating storage regasification units. This paper presents a CRA case study for a generic remote offshore field with a range of development options from conventional to minimal offshore facilities. The model calculates the associated risks for the options considered and is presented in terms of individual risk per annum, temporary refuge impairment frequency and potential loss of life. The results highlight the effects of each individual design feature on risk levels by comparison of similar options side by side, noting the main risk contributors and allowing investigation of the benefits of risk reduction measures. This enables identification of the best design features from each of the options and allows an optimised design to be carried forward.

Implementation of Quantitative Risk Assessment: Case Study

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Mangold ◽  
W. Kent Muhlbauer ◽  
Jim Ponder ◽  
Tony Alfano
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
The United States ◽  
Management Program ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Classical Statistics ◽  
Wide Range

Risk management of pipelines is a complex challenge due to the dynamic environment of the real world coupled with a wide range of system types installed over many decades. Various methods of risk assessment are currently being used in industry, many of which utilize relative scoring. These assessments are often not designed for the new integrity management program (IMP) requirements and are under direct challenge by regulators. SemGroup had historically used relative risk assessment methodologies to help support risk management decision-making. While the formality offered by these early methods provided benefits, it was recognized that, in order to more effectively manage risk and better meet the United States IMP objectives, a more effective risk assessment would be needed. A rapid and inexpensive migration into a better risk assessment platform was sought. The platform needed to be applicable not only to pipeline miles, but also to station facilities and all related components. The risk results had to be readily understandable and scalable, capturing risks from ‘trap to trap’ in addition to risks accompanying each segment. The solution appeared in the form a quantitative risk assessment that was ‘physics based’ rather than the classical statistics based QRA. This paper will outline the steps involved in this transition process and show how quantitative risk assessment may be efficiently implemented to better guide integrity decision-making, illustrated with a case study from SemGroup.

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Human Salmonellosis and Listeriosis Related to the Consumption of Raw Milk in Italy

2015 ◽  
Vol 78 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
FEDERICA GIACOMETTI ◽  
PAOLO BONILAURI ◽  
SABRINA ALBONETTI ◽  
SIMONETTA AMATISTE ◽  
NORMA ARRIGONI ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Consumer Behavior ◽  
Dose Response ◽  
Raw Milk ◽  
Storage Conditions ◽  
Entire Population ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Public Health Perspective ◽  
Vending Machines ◽  
Milk Storage

Two quantitative risk assessment (RA) models were developed to describe the risk of salmonellosis and listeriosis linked to consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Italy. Exposure assessment considered the official microbiological records monitoring raw milk samples from vending machines performed by the regional veterinary authorities from 2008 to 2011, microbial growth during storage, destruction experiments, consumption frequency of raw milk, serving size, and consumption preference. Two separate RA models were developed: one for the consumption of boiled milk and the other for the consumption of raw milk. The RA models predicted no human listeriosis cases per year either in the best or worst storage conditions and with or without boiling raw milk, whereas the annual estimated cases of salmonellosis depend on the dose-response relationships used in the model, the milk storage conditions, and consumer behavior in relation to boiling raw milk or not. For example, the estimated salmonellosis cases ranged from no expected cases, assuming that the entire population boiled milk before consumption, to a maximum of 980,128 cases, assuming that the entire population drank raw milk without boiling, in the worst milk storage conditions, and with the lowest dose-response model. The findings of this study clearly show how consumer behavior could affect the probability and number of salmonellosis cases and in general, the risk of illness. Hence, the proposed RA models emphasize yet again that boiling milk before drinking is a simple yet effective tool to protect consumers against the risk of illness inherent in the consumption of raw milk. The models may also offer risk managers a useful tool to identify or implement appropriate measures to control the risk of acquiring foodborne pathogens. Quantification of the risks associated with raw milk consumption is necessary from a public health perspective.

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