21st-century leadership versus 20th-century leadership

Author(s):  
Stuart M. Rosenberg
Afghanistan ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 171-194
Author(s):  
Warwick Ball

The Silk Road as an image is a relatively new one for Afghanistan. It appeals to both the pre-Islamic and the perceived Islamic past, thus offering an Islamic balance to previous identities linked to Bamiyan or to the Kushans. It also appeals to a broader and more international image, one that has been taken up by many other countries. This paper traces the rise of the image of the Silk Road and its use as a metaphor for ancient trade to encompass all contacts throughout Eurasia, prehistoric, ancient and modern, but also how the image has been adopted and expanded into many other areas: politics, tourism and academia. It is argued here that the origin and popularity of the term lies in late 20th century (and increasingly 21st century) politics rather than any reality of ancient trade. Its consequent validity as a metaphor in academic discussion is questioned


Author(s):  
B. M. Shustov

During the second half of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century, space hazards multiplied, the most urgent of which is space debris. Professionals working in space are exposed to this hazard daily and are aware of it as a problem. Furthermore, increasing attention is being paid to the unpredictable behavior of the Sun, which produces the so-called space weather. The asteroid-comet hazard is considered as potentially having the most catastrophic consequences. No manifestations of biological hazard have yet been observed, although as space activities develop, it is becoming increasingly important. The appropriate time scale for astrophysical hazards is many millions of years, so from a practical perspective, they have no importance. This article briefly describes the main types of space hazards. The author analyzes the results of research and practical work in the field, both worldwide and specifically in Russia. Comparative analysis leads to the clear conclusion that a national program must be developed for the study of space hazards and to respond to space threats. This article is based on a report made by the author at the meeting of the Presidium of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) on January 15, 2019.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 ◽  
pp. 100206
Author(s):  
Connie A. Woodhouse ◽  
Rebecca M. Smith ◽  
Stephanie A. McAfee ◽  
Gregory T. Pederson ◽  
Gregory J. McCabe ◽  
...  

2013 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas L. Holzer ◽  
James C. Savage

Modern global earthquake fatalities can be separated into two components: (1) fatalities from an approximately constant annual background rate that is independent of world population growth and (2) fatalities caused by earthquakes with large human death tolls, the frequency of which is dependent on world population. Earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (and 50,000) have increased with world population and obey a nonstationary Poisson distribution with rate proportional to population. We predict that the number of earthquakes with death tolls greater than 100,000 (50,000) will increase in the 21st century to 8.7±3.3 (20.5±4.3) from 4 (7) observed in the 20th century if world population reaches 10.1 billion in 2100. Combining fatalities caused by the background rate with fatalities caused by catastrophic earthquakes ( >100,000 fatalities) indicates global fatalities in the 21st century will be 2.57±0.64 million if the average post-1900 death toll for catastrophic earthquakes (193,000) is assumed.


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