scholarly journals Inflation targeting, disinflation, and debt traps in Argentina

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-105
Author(s):  
Emiliano Libman ◽  
Gabriel Palazzo
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Stabilization Process ◽  
Eventual Collapse

This paper highlights the role of external indebtedness and the presence of inflationary inertia in order to assess the effectiveness and sustainability of inflation targeting during disinflation episodes. As the recent Argentinian experience illustrates, a sluggish inflation rate and a significant current-account deficit may make the stabilization process difficult. To illustrate the point, we build a model that shows that, when inflation adjusts fast, the target may be achieved without building too much external debt. But if inflation adjusts slowly, an excessive build-up of external debt could lead to an increase in the risk premium, a sudden shortage of foreign exchange, and the eventual collapse of the inflation-targeting regime.

scholarly journals Inflation targeting, disinflation, and debt traps in Argentina

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-105
Author(s):  
Emiliano Libman ◽  
Gabriel Palazzo
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Stabilization Process ◽  
Eventual Collapse

This paper highlights the role of external indebtedness and the presence of inflationary inertia in order to assess the effectiveness and sustainability of inflation targeting during disinflation episodes. As the recent Argentinian experience illustrates, a sluggish inflation rate and a significant current-account deficit may make the stabilization process difficult. To illustrate the point, we build a model that shows that, when inflation adjusts fast, the target may be achieved without building too much external debt. But if inflation adjusts slowly, an excessive build-up of external debt could lead to an increase in the risk premium, a sudden shortage of foreign exchange, and the eventual collapse of the inflation-targeting regime.

scholarly journals MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS AND YIELD CURVE OF INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT BOND

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (01) ◽  
pp. 34-48
Author(s):  
Perdana Wahyu Santosa
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Bond Market ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Fixed Income ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Positive Effect

Purposes – Indonesian government bond (known as SUN) plays an essential role in financing sustainable development in Indonesia and is a fixed income investment vehicle that attracts foreign investors. This study aims to examine the effect of macroeconomic factors or macro-risk on the yield curve of the SUN bond. Methodology – The type of data used in this study is secondary data in the form of BI Rate, Inflation, Exchange Rate, Foreign Exchange Reserves, Current Account Deficit, and crude oil prices in the 2010–2019 period. This study used the error correction model (ECM) method. The primary sources of data are some government bodies such as the Bank Indonesia website (www.bi.go.id) and the Indonesian site Bond Market Directory (www.idx.co.id). Findings – The results showed that the exchange rate had a positive effect in the long run, while the foreign exchange reserves effect inversely on the yield curve. The BI rate, inflation rate, and oil price have a positive effect on yield significantly. Furthermore, the current account deficit has no significant impact on the yield curve for the long term and short term. Implications – There are some managerial and policy implications to maintain an efficient, fixed income market. The authorities need to promote GDP growth, pursue fiscal efficiency, keep up the credit rating and risk of current account deficit, keep a relatively low BI rate and expected inflation rate. The yield curve fluctuation is influenced by changes in some macro-monetary factors above, which should consider in making SUN investment decisions. Limitations – This study has two limitations. Firstly, the future model could use a re-specification analysis that employs the VECM method that can result in impulse response function with a shock and period study; secondly, this study could be adding some variables including budget policy and political dynamics. Originality – This study contributes to the literature by examining the yield curve using the current account deficit related to government debt and macroeconomic factors that affect the bond yield curve. These findings can arrange a strategy to develop the bond market and obtain funding with a low cost of debt funds.

scholarly journals Adopting Inflation Targeting in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis

2010 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 51-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadia Saleem
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Potential Candidate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Nominal Anchor

The objective of this paper is to assess the conditions for inflation targeting in Pakistan. The recent inflationary surge in Pakistan calls for rethinking monetary policy afresh. This paper argues the case for inflation targeting in Pakistan as a policy option to achieve price stability. The country experienced an inflation rate of just below 10 percent during 1970-2009, which makes it a potential candidate for inflation targeting. Applying the VAR technique to data for the same period, inflation is shown to be adaptive in nature, leading us to reject the accelerationist hypothesis. The Lucas critique holds as people are found to use forward-looking models in forming expectations about inflation. The paper also sheds some light on the State Bank of Pakistan’s level of preparedness for the possibility of adopting inflation targeting, for which transparency and autonomy are prerequisites. The interest rate channel can play the role of a nominal anchor in the long run.

scholarly journals Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Devaluation: Risks of the Russian Ruble and Other Currencies

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 76-81
Author(s):  
V. Yu. Didenko ◽  
N. I. Morozko ◽  
N. I. Morozko
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Subject and topic. Currently, the decrease in payments on foreign debts and a decrease in imports have an impact on the demand in the foreign exchange market. As a result, a situation has arisen due to the actions of the Bank of Russia, caused by threats of sanctions that provoked the absence of excessive demand and adequate supply in the foreign exchange market and led to a decrease in ruble exchange rate fl uctuations due to oil price movements.The subject of research is to determine the role of oil prices in the formation of monetary policy, which can be a key driver of economic growth.Objective. Identifi cation of exchange rate management practices with the search for the relationship between the current account of the balance of payments and the volatility of the national currency exchange rate.Research methods, the main provisions. Methods used grouping, comparing and summarizing economic indicators to study the characteristics and trends of the monetary policy of China, South Korea and Latin American countries.A critical analysis of the various points of view of leading scientists on the negative or positive impact of the exchange rate on the development of the economy was carried out. At the same time, it is interesting to analyze the views of individual economists that the dependence of the ruble exchange rate on oil prices has recently largely decreased.The main results of the study. Determination of the theoretical relationship between the price of oil and the exchange rate, based on the shock component, either in oil prices or in the exchange rate, with testing the response of the economic variable to this shock.Main conclusions. It was concluded that in the conditions of the economic situation of the last decade, the main problem of export-oriented and import-oriented countries is the imbalance of the current account of the balance of payments, as well as its relationship, primarily with the prices of export goods.

scholarly journals Interactions among Economic Ideas, Policies and Experience - The Establishment of Inflation Targeting in Canada, 1991-2001

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 133-165
Author(s):  
David Laidler
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Growth ◽  
Policy Regime ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
The Stability

In Canada, targeting the inflation rate was intended as a temporary measure during a transition to price-level stability, but became a well-established monetary policy regime in its own right. This paper analyses the role of the interaction of economic ideas with the experience generated by their application to policy in bringing about this outcome. In the following account, changing beliefs about the stability or otherwise of ongoing inflation, the capacity of a flexible exchange rate to create a vicious circle of depreciation and rising domestic prices, are emphasised, while ideas about the natural unemployment rate and money growth in influencing economic outcomes are also discussed. Today’s standard theoretical approach to modelling inflation targeting arrived on the scene only as the Canadian regime was becoming well established.

The Impact of Current Account Deficit on Economic Growth: An ARDL Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-92
Author(s):  
Tamma Reddy ◽  
T. Sita Ramaiah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Current Account

In this study, we examine the linkages between External debt, Exchange rate, Current account deficit, and GDP at Factor cost for India over the period of 1975-76 to 2018- 19 using the Unit root test and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). The results of the unit root test reveal that GDP growth rate and External debt are integrated at the level I(0); while the Current Account deficit and Exchange rate are integrated at first order I(1). The results of the ARDL technique reveal that the current account deficit has a positive and significant impact on Real GDP. It clearly reflects the role of imports in accelerating the growth of a developing economy like India. There is also evidence that the external debt has a positive and significant impact on the Current account deficit while the Exchange rate does not have an impact on the Current account deficit. The authors opine that the external debt assists in a gradual reduction in the current account deficit and contributes to economic growth by narrowing down the saving-investment gap. As the demand for Indian exports is inelastic in the global market, the country has not benefitted from the depreciation of its currency. The authors stressed the need for focusing on further diversification of its export markets, creating a conducive environment for attracting longer-term FDIs, liberalization, promoting commercial services exports, and achieving exchange rate stability in the context of the USA-China trade war and stagnation in the world output growth. Huge untapped potential for IT-enabled services should be exploited to promote service trade. The authors point out the current account deficit in the range of 2-3 percent of GDP can be manageable.

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